A minimum three-wave rally on Wheat Expected - Elliott wave WHEAT made a sharp and impulsive drop from the mentioned resistance levels, at Fib. ratio of 0.382/0.50 and at the level of a former wave iv (795/800 area). We labelled a possibly completed five-wave structure in C at 757 lvl., which means a minimum three-wave rally can now be in the cards, and is already underway.
If only a three-wave rally shows up, and then we see a new impulsive drop below the 757 lvl.. then this would suggest more weakness for a wave C.
If we get more impulsive price movement to the upside, and eventually above the upper parallel channel line, then this would suggest a bullish change in trend, and a completed red A-B-C correction.
Wheat
WHEAT Looks Promising - Elliott waveWHEAT (MAR 2022) made a textbook example of an impulsive (five legged) wave, down from 831 high, and found a potential low for a higher degree wave A or 1 at the 774 lvl.. Price can now be in a temporary, corrective retracement labelled as an a-b-c flat of a higher degree wave B or 2. Possible resistance is at fib. ratio of 0.382/0.50.
In case if price starts dropping impulsively through the lower corrective parallel channel line, and below the 774 low, then we would consider a completed correction in B or 2, and further weakness.
WHEAT in leg v of a bearish turn - Elliott waveWHEAT is trading in a five-wave decline for a higher degree wave 1 or A from 831 high. We also see that price broke below the lower corrective parallel channel line, which is a confirmation that a temporary high is in place, and a change in trend underway.
At the moment we are tracking a sub-wave v of 1/A, down from 795 lvl., where a corrective sub-wave iv had ended (fib. ratio of 0.382 and 0.50 reacted as resistance). Sub-wave v can reach area near the 776/771 lvls., before an a-b-c move for a bigger 2/B correction may follow.
WHEAT turning bearish for a lesser five-wave move - Elliott waveWHEAT (Mar 2022) is trading as expected, turning in impulsive fashion down from 831 high of a former higher degree wave C. We labelled a five-wave move in progress for a higher degree wave 1 or A; sub-wave iv correction can now be underway, with possible resistance at the Fib. ratio of 0.382 or 0.50. Also the upper side of the lower parallel corrective channel line can react as resistance, and the former swing high of a wave b (796'2 lvl.). A sharp break below the 782 lvl. would suggest a completed minor correction and sub-wave v underway.
An impulsive fall, followed by a break bellow the lower corrective parallel channel line indicates a bearsih turn on the intra-day chart of wheat.
Wheat Taking The Bullish Move - Elliott waveWHEAT (Mar 2022) found a low for a corrective wave B at the 776 level, near the Fib. ratios of 0.382 and 0.5, which can also react as support, and bounced sharply higher. A sharp rally above the upper parallel channel line, and above the former high at 803 lvl. is an indication that bulls are in control, and that correction is completed.
We are now tracking a five-wave rally, a new impulse labelled as wave C, which can target the upper parallel channel line, connected from the high of A. 825/835 area can be seen, and can be achieved in a five-wave fashion as previous wave A.
MORE UPSIDE ON WHEAT, INTRA-DAY - ELLIOTT WAVE A five-wave rally on wheat (March 2022) from 737 lvl. on the intra-day chart makes a bullish sign, and suggests more upside, once current a-b-c correction fully unfolds. Correction can be a complex one, and can look for support at the 770/761 region, where wave iv and Fib. ratio of 0.618 sit.
WHEAT, closed in Stop ProfitAfter 3 months we close our positions on wheat.
The price pulled back 25 points, leading our positions to hit the Stop Profit we had set at 769.80 to save profits, and it did.
Very good are those who have deducted part of the contracts on 50%, others on 38.2% letting the remaining part of the contracts run, very well indeed.
Now let's let the WHEAT go where it wants to go, we are far from any signal of the MCS, in February we will be in A1 of the annual and we will then evaluate any possible trade.
Wheat (The FED can't print FOOD)View On WHEAT (12 Jan 2022)
FED and Central Banks can print unlimited amount of liquidity but not food.
We are expecting 2022 will be the inflationary year.
Food prices are going to go up. Still on the buy side.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
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$KE1! Wheat OVER $9 in March? Potential for $10?Hi Folks,
Wheat has entered a bull run with a 50/200 ema golden cross as well as a 100/200 ema bullish cross for the first time since 2010! The prior run was from 2010 to 2016. Bearish from 2016 until late 2020 where we first see some bullish crossings. These stages tend to last anywhere between 4-6 years so we should see some continuation.
As far as the technical movement goes, we can tell that wheat likes to flag into the 21-day ema and sometimes into the 50-day ema before continuing. Yesterday, price fell below the 21-day ema and today it reclaimed immediately; this is exactly what we wish to see in healthy upward movements.
Needless to say, at this point you can tell I am bullish on wheat (and commodities in general) for the foreseeable future. What say you?
After Dividends GIS Raised Prices...Will They CRUSH Earnings?Is GIS part of the global Supply Crunch? After several months our GIS retail play is holding up nicely but will they crush earnings? It seems they're poised to knock this out the park on 12 21, but anything could happen. Please DYOR before jumping in to GIS, read their prospectus & recent SEC filings, so there are no surprises. Full disclosure considering cutting bags here. We're done at the grocery store this quarter, & may look to rotate back into sectors that are down.
Are Wheat & Biofuels Supply Plays?Took positions in BG last year, & ended up trading out too soon. Here is a good dip & options are cheap, not trading advice just a MACRO play. As long as food prices are going up & Russian Export Taxes are increasing then Wheat Grain & Biofuels might still be valid fundamentally. Bunge is a global player so please check out their Fundamentals, SEC Filings & Prospectus before investing real money, also it costs nothing to check price action for a few weeks or months before making a decision. That's how lots of analysts make their very best decisions. In fact the way I came across BG was from bad information about an alleged Silver Squeeze. Don't follow hype, do your own research & make the best decisions for you & your investment goals.
wheat will have to enter it's cyclewheat has a 6month cycle, between northern and southern emisphere crop, looks like it will begin a supercycle, like all commodities.
by a thecnical point of view, it's forming a H&S. wheat is a quite "dangerous" commodity to trade so i don't think it's a good idea entering before the pattern ends it's forming and starts going down from that neckline, multiple false breakouts are to expect once the price is bellow the neckline. i don't think it's a coincidence that the natural target of the pattern coincides with a round number (600), witch has been a strong resistance and support in the past.
Wheat & Sudden FloodsAs we all know we had several flash floods this year and most probably we will have them more in coming years. Those flash floods are affecting the agricultural fields badly. Let me clarify; Once the flash flood hits a region top soil is removed and it goes to seas. So next season on that land becomes less productive. These kind of effects will make the prices of Wheat and other agricultural commodities higher. And each passing day we experience that many farmers leave their farms as they can't compete with big companies.
Wheat Futures Attempted a Breakout Last Week.Long term trend still intact. Trend continuation expected.
I've been expecting a breakout from this wedge pattern for a couple weeks. Last week, the breakout did happen, but price returned to close the week back inside the wedge. I still hold that the technical pattern is extremely bullish. Fundamentals for wheat are also bullish with rising fertilizer and energy costs.
One way to gain exposure to wheat futures is through the Teucrium Wheat Fund, ticker WEAT. This fund is not suitable for intraday or even shorter term swing trading due to low liquidity and large spreads. Over the long term however, the fund tracks the wheat market very well.
Continuous KC WheatCont KC Wheat - Monthly: New highs recorded this week within .04 of a 38% retracement target off the 2008 high and the 2019 low. Should KC Wheat decide to move higher yet, the 50% target is a $1.50 higher at 8.87. WOW, it sure seems like a mile to get there but as you can see on the monthly chart, when wheat decides to move it usually does in quick regards.
Support is the blue Tenkan line at 6.70 with further risk down at 5.73
COMMODITIES - RICE ZR1 - Breakout ImminentLine of Least Resistance determined by Underlying Conditions in my Global Macro Campaign.
Price Action Behavior suggests short attack taking advantage of sellers at previous breakout, to accumulate for next wave... which is building up quickly.
I will know if my suspicions are correct at the median line.
US-China tensions will make the supply scarce, and NATO + allies' free trade agreements are under pressure due to pandemic handling. I speculate a global shift towards domestic production, if not military tensions... Nations will most certainly need to stockpile food!
Other Commodities of interest:
Coffee:
Wheat:
Soybeans:
Corn:
GLHF
- DPT