Wheat
Wheat Futures Turn LowerWheat futures are currently retracing an upthrust. This upthrust failed to make a higher-high of the prior move. Because this upthrust failed to make a higher high, Wheat didn't enter into an uptrend. Therefore, I'm looking for a healthy retracement of our latest move.
Short Wheat 50 Percent Retracement HitShort Wheat 50 Percent Retracement Hit and channeling down to bottom range of 540 then 500 price point.
Wheat forming Lower HighKey levels Identified
- Black line : Monthly Resistance
- Maroon line : Monthly Open
Weekly Timeframe
- Third retest of Monthly Resistance level
- Last week candle close as an inside bar suggests consolidation, Expansion might be coming soon
Daily Timeframe
- Confirmed Bearish Pinbar with a close below its low
- Local 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level
Idea: Looking for a retrace to ride to the downside. Unsure if this is truly a lower high as a lower high is only confirmed is there is a lower low.
WHEAT FUTURES (KE1!) WeeklyThe Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick .
Dates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low.
WHEAT FUTURES (KE1!) DailyThe Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick .
Dates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low.
Wheat Daily and 4 hour Setup PlayThe idea can be triggered here on the 4 hour, but first let us take a look at the daily chart.
We are at an important resistance zone on the daily chart. At around the 5.82 zone. What has caught my attention is the many indecision candles we have here. The two doji candles, candles with large wicks on either side. What this shows us is that there is a battle between the bears and the bulls at this resistance zone. We should definitely be paying attention to price here.
Moving down to the 4 hour chart, and we can see there are more confluences pointing to a possible downside move, and indeed, presents us with a trigger set up. Just looking at market structure here, it shows us an uptrend with higher lows and higher highs. We have had more than two swings which is what we want to look for.
At this resistance zone, we began to range. Look at the wicks here. The fake out candles. Price began to break out but reversed and closed below the previous open highs. This is why we remain patient and await candle closes before taking trades. This fake out trapped many traders to the upside.
We can also say that not only do we have a range here, but in fact, one can make an argument that there is a double top/ triple top at this level. Another good pattern we look for potential trend exhaustion. Putting those two together, the topping pattern and at a resistance level, already give us a good possibility of a downward move.
What we are now awaiting is for a break below this flip zone here (area that has been both support and resistance) at 5.620. Going back and looking to the left, you can see the importance of this zone with multiple touches. We have had a bounce at this zone but I am looking for a reversal and then a break below the flip zone. This would create our first lower high swing that we can work with in a new down trend. Price does seem ready to roll over.
On the fundamental side, there are stories now about supply chains being disrupted due to the virus. Hearing about rice farming and other crop farming being halted in parts of Asia. Stories like this are out of our hands, but can go against this trade idea. We shall await the developments and see if we get the break.
Week 13/Su - ZW1! - WeekendMost bullish commercials have been in 20 years, im loading up my entire boat with wheat futures
Week 13/Su - IP1! - The Greatest DepressionMost bullish commercials have been in 20 years, im loading up my entire boat with spring wheat futures
Wheat / Trendline RetestIt"s not just grocery shoppers who are hoarding pantry staples.
Some governments are moving to secure domestic food supplies during the
corona virus pandemic . (Bloomberg)
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Wheat Futures Forecast: Buy the pullbacksFundamentally:
According to the Financial Times’ report:
Shoppers’ rush to stock up on non-perishable staples such as pasta and noodles to ride out the coronavirus crisis has boosted demand for wheat, which has risen sharply in futures markets on both sides of the Atlantic.
Prices have been supported by increased buying by flour millers while in France, shoppers have stockpiled baguettes to freeze, leading some bakeries to ration the nation’s favourite bread.
Wheat prices have also been lifted by efforts among various governments to add to strategic inventories. “The north Africans are buying a lot of grain. Stocks are moving from France to Algeria,” said Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.
Heavy falls in emerging market currencies have also revived memories of 2010, when drought and a sharp drop in the rouble prompted Russia — the world’s leading wheat exporter — to ban shipments of grains for almost a year. Last week there were jitters in the market caused by speculation that Moscow and Kyiv were considering similar measures.
Levels as mentioned on the chart
People Need move Food During the Corona VirusDuring the coronavirus, the Demand for certain commodities like Wheat will Increase drastically.
Curfews, lockdowns, Marial Law = People stay home and eat more = rush on Supermarkets for breads, flour etc.
Price gonna head way up!
bearish breakout on Wheat, D1As you can see on the chart, it looks like we have seen a bearish breakout constellation. Over half a year we were in a bullish upside trend, which now got broken by price. First T/P should be around a 0.6 fib level.
This is a long term trade idea, so let price run and see if it works out.
Remember, trading is a business of probability.
Wheat Reversal Pattern FormingA simple idea. Wheat is showing a head and shoulders reversal pattern. On the daily, we did break out but that has not been sustained.
We can see fake out patterns on both the daily chart and the 4 hour chart.
Here on the 4 hour, we are awaiting a break of the neckline. This would also confirm our first lower high swing (the right shoulder of the pattern).
First target would be the flip/demand zone in blue.
For now, we await the break.
