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Wheat

Wheat, Soybeans, and CornWhy Wheat and why now. What about Soybeans and Corn. Looking across the Ags, it seems that Wheat is enjoying the most upside. Why is this. In keeping with my focus on the DMI and ADX, I think you’d have start by looking at the monthly chart of the 3. One of the key tenants of DMI/ADX is that best trades seem to originate when the ADX is below 20 for an extended period of time. And, for Wheat, that has been since June of 2013. Since then, it has moved between a couple of lines and for the most part, remaining below the 13 period EMA of the high. As an aside, in my previous articles, I used EMA’s on the close of price but have moved to a 13EMA on high, 26EMA on low and 20EMA on close with the intent to use them as a channel for pullbacks based of ADX action. June of last year, the downtrend line was sharply broken but before that, the DMI made a significant move when the +/-DI swapped. Although this had happened several time during the past 4 years, what eventually became important is that the low of this candle was never broken while the high was continually tested and broken with the last time starting the recent uptrend. Also, note that during this time that the +DMI continued to make higher highs will not making lower lows. With the ADX moving above 20 in May of this year, a strong signal was given that the market was ready to move up. Now, consider the same discussion for ]Soybeans : Notice the size of the candle that caused the last swap. I’ve included a possible consolidation pattern. And for Corn : With Corn the interesting thing on recent action is that the DI’s changed dominance but did so where the swap was to -DI but with a green candle. I don’t see this too often but seems to give mixed signals.
OANDA:WHEATUSD
by mxb1961
Trading the DMI with ADX, TSI and EMA (WHEATUSD) PullbacksSo far, I’ve focused on how to get into the market based on the DMI swap in dominance between the +DI and -DI. Once you’re in or if you missed the original entry, how can you get into a trend while minimizing your risk. As I’ve noted before, I’ve not been able to successfully trade on a regular basis but my hope is to use everything I’m documenting here to change that. In one of the links that I shared in my first article is a PDF that has some really good stuff on using the PDF to trade breakouts. In it, there is a section on how to trade pullbacks within a trend using a 20 period EMA. In my charts, I use a combination of the 13 and 26 period EMA to sort of do the same thing (I use a range between the two vs. just one EMA). Full credit for the strategy is given in the PDF and the basics of it are outlined as follows: 1. The ADX must me moving up and above 20 2. Look for a price retracement to the 20 period EMA. It goes on to note that “usually the price retracement will be accompanied by a turndown in the ADX” 3. When price touches the 20 period EMA (in my case, when it enters the range or touches the 26 period EMA), “put a BUY STOP above the high of the previous bar” 4. Once filled, enter a protective stop at the newly formed swing low 5. If stopped out, re-enter the trade by placing a new BUY STOP at the original entry price 6. After a successful trade, the ADX must once again turn up above 20 before another retrace The PDF walks through this strategy as outlined above along with providing some examples. However, the examples are based on the same time frame as the original entry. I’d like to explore and propose that in a strong trend at the daily level, the 4 hour chart will provide a short term strategy. By applying the same concept to the 4 hour chart as outlined above then you may be able to find points that either provide opportunities to enter into an existing trend, or add to positions you may already have within the trend. As the 4 hour chart begins to show weakness and a breakdown below the 26 EMA, it’s possible this is an indication that the daily chart will now cycle through the same steps as noted above which would provide an opportunity take profit on existing positions while waiting for the next setup to enter with the trend on the daily chart. I’ve hi-lited areas on the 4 hour chart for WHEATUSD that fit into this strategy with the current up trend on the daily chart that started recently. Note, that the last area in yellow appears to be breaking down below the 26 EMA signaling that the daily chart may begin to cycle through it's own pullback.
OANDA:WHEATUSD
by mxb1961
5
Trading the DMI with ADX, TSI and EMA (WHEATUSD) cont.Setting up a trade based on daily signal using 4 hour chart for timing. In this scenario, the daily chart had its ADX below 20 since July 3rd. When trading with DMI/ADX, periods of breakout after the ADX has been below 20 for at least 7-10 periods can provide good results. In this case, the 4 hour chart had dropped below 20 for an extended period too. On July 17th , price moved up which caused the +DI to cross up over the -DI. Based on Wilder's strategy, you would place a buy stop above the high of the day (either the high or a number greater than it). With this strategy, you may consider the stop at a point below the low for the same day. In cases where the daily range is small, then placing orders in this way may not cause too much of a draw down. However, in case where the daily range is large, the risk is much higher though there are cases where it's just the way it works out (recent ngas activity that I'll use in an example in a future article). Alternatively, you could choose to place the stop at something like a 75% retrace of the daily candle when placing the buy stop at the high of the day. Another option is to place your buy order as a limit order somewhere in the 25-75% pullback of the daily range that caused the DMI to swap . On the 4hr chart, marks the day that daily DMI swapped dominance while shows the 25/50/75% breakdown of this price range. While this strategy can reduce the risk of having a larger draw down, it also introduces the risk of missing a trade. I'll review more examples of both of these scenarios in next article.
OANDA:WHEATUSD
by mxb1961
Wheat higher: droughts in the US, and trade tensionsWheat has been bullish since the beginning of 2018 and I think there is reason to expect to see it continue. Some of the main drivers are: 1. Potential tariff introduction and major us trade partners like mexico moving to other wheat sources affect trade stability and commodities as a whole. 2. The developing drought in the US this summer Watching for a move higher from the $5.00 level off the major support developed at $4.75. Probably not the most explosive move (unless the drought gets really bad, then watch for a boom!) and will expect a steady grind up into the $5.50-$5.85 through to the end of the year. So what do you think? Is there a case for bullish wheat or will we stay sideways? Would love to hear your feedback, share with me your charts, ideas, and comments! Peace, love, and sweet bamboo, tbp Note: All ideas expressed here are presented solely for learning and educational purposes only. Any gains or losses assumed by trading ideas presented by The Bad Panda are done so at your own risk.
OANDA:WHEATUSDLong
by TheBadPanda
WHEAT - D/W/M - LONGWe already traded WHEAT weeks ago with some success, and I found this setup quite interesting. On daily we have another nice breakout, that could lead to another false breakout. But in this case we are narrowing down on the support and resistance so we should see some break in the following weeks. Taking into account macroeconomics, I'm betting more on the upside than downside for WHEAT. I added a mid-range TP that looks achievable this year. This is a long trade, so be prepared to keep this one forever. SL (if any) should be around 3.55. Trade with your own diligence. GL HF
OANDA:WHEATUSDLong
by Bastosai
Wheat looks set to break higherLooking at wheat zw1! across three charts (renko 10pt, 5pt, and 1pt), it looks like they have achieved some type of confluence and are staged to break higher. Entry setup would have been on the 1pt chart on the 27th with the second test of the 100EMA. However, I'm looking to enter long based on how market opens this coming week. Targets are 510 and 550 on the zw1! chart. Actual entry will be with the e-mini July Wheat. On TV, I track WHEATUSD for the real-time data feed.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by mxb1961
Short Wheat ZW1!US Wheat (Chicago) hit the upper line of the triangle I draw in the weekly chart. This line - for now - hold and wheat did not move higher. Furthermore, volume did not really increased during the upmove of the last two to three days. This is even more striking in the weekly chart, where volume decreased in the last three weeks while wheat moved up. This is a strong signal for falling prices. On the fundamental side: The US Dollar Index broke out of its triangle and is about to move higher in the next couple of weeks. The Ruble devalued further against the US Dollar Index. Both are important reasons for falling US Wheat prices. But: Spring wheat seedings are behind - in the US and Russia (this is especially important for Russia). This might have a strong effect on Chicago Wheat. If Wheat moves above the upper triangle line / breaks out, then this is the reason. Therefore, a close stop should be put in place a little bit above the (blue) uppper triangle line. The next support line is at around 478.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn2101709
Short WheatDue to a weaker Ruble, Wheat from Russia becomes more competetive which should be solved by a partial decline of US Wheat prices (and by a partial increase in Russia Wheat prices - higher demand for Russian Wheat). Furthermore, USDA does not expect a declining "Ending Stocks" for Wheat this season although US Weather around Kansas is still very unfavorable for Winter Wheat conditions. World Ending Stocks expected: Estimates (April) = 254 Million MT, March = 252 Million - but this is mostly due to a higher estimated "World Beginning Stock" (instead of 252 Million, the world started with 254 Million in this season). Therefore, I expect US (Chicago) Wheat prices to fall to around 462 (next support area). A stop loss should be placed a little bit above 478 (now a resistance area).
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn2101709
Short on Wheat (Chicago) The contract was in an upwards trend until it hit a trend line (1st / 2nd of March) I drew in the weekly chart (possible triangle formation). The resistance in form of the trend line hold and the price started to fall. It broke the first support line at 478 (last high) and the second support area at 462 / 459 (last low) with increasing volume. In my view that is a clear sign that the price might fall further until it hits the trend line at roughly 425 / 430 (part of the possible triangle formation I drew in the weekly chart). The support area at 462 / 459 now becomes a resistance area. My idea is supportet by weather conditions around the world (22nd of March): USA / Canada: Although key wheat producing areas around Kansas have been too dry, relief is expected from the 25th of March onwards. The forecasted precipitation will especially relief dry conditions in Oklahoma and Texas. Furthermore, temperatures are going to be higher than usual in the next two days. All in all: More favorable conditions for wheat. Europe: Temperatures have been significantly lower than usual, although no frost damage is expected. Germany and the Northern parts of Eastern Europe have been to dry. Precipitation is expected for the period: 25th of March - 29th of March. Temperature is going to increase, too. All in all: More favorable conditions for wheat. Black - Sea - Region: Temperatures have been significanly lower than usual, too. A thick snow cover protected winter crop. No significant damage is expected. But, temperatures are expected to stay lower than usual. Cold weather and the thick snow cover prolong dormancy and this might after all have a negative effect on the crop yield. All in all: Conditions are not perfect. Neverthless, a high crop yield is expected. China: Temperatures are forecasted to be significantly higher than usual in important wheat growing areas (esp. in the East of China). All in all: Favorable conditions for wheat. No extrem weather or significant dryness is expected within the next week. Extrem drought in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas is reliefed thanks to precipitation in the coming week. US - Dollar is for dollar dominated commodities an important factor. A week Dollar boosts prices. I expect the US Dollar to fall to 89.02 / 88.50. Here is an important resistance. This might not be favorable for Chicago Wheat price but one has to consider that US Wheat is still highly priced compared to its competiton in the Black Sea Region. So all in all, I think that the price should fall further.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn2101709