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Wheat

Short on Wheat (Chicago) The contract was in an upwards trend until it hit a trend line (1st / 2nd of March) I drew in the weekly chart (possible triangle formation). The resistance in form of the trend line hold and the price started to fall. It broke the first support line at 478 (last high) and the second support area at 462 / 459 (last low) with increasing volume. In my view that is a clear sign that the price might fall further until it hits the trend line at roughly 425 / 430 (part of the possible triangle formation I drew in the weekly chart). The support area at 462 / 459 now becomes a resistance area. My idea is supportet by weather conditions around the world (22nd of March): USA / Canada: Although key wheat producing areas around Kansas have been too dry, relief is expected from the 25th of March onwards. The forecasted precipitation will especially relief dry conditions in Oklahoma and Texas. Furthermore, temperatures are going to be higher than usual in the next two days. All in all: More favorable conditions for wheat. Europe: Temperatures have been significantly lower than usual, although no frost damage is expected. Germany and the Northern parts of Eastern Europe have been to dry. Precipitation is expected for the period: 25th of March - 29th of March. Temperature is going to increase, too. All in all: More favorable conditions for wheat. Black - Sea - Region: Temperatures have been significanly lower than usual, too. A thick snow cover protected winter crop. No significant damage is expected. But, temperatures are expected to stay lower than usual. Cold weather and the thick snow cover prolong dormancy and this might after all have a negative effect on the crop yield. All in all: Conditions are not perfect. Neverthless, a high crop yield is expected. China: Temperatures are forecasted to be significantly higher than usual in important wheat growing areas (esp. in the East of China). All in all: Favorable conditions for wheat. No extrem weather or significant dryness is expected within the next week. Extrem drought in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas is reliefed thanks to precipitation in the coming week. US - Dollar is for dollar dominated commodities an important factor. A week Dollar boosts prices. I expect the US Dollar to fall to 89.02 / 88.50. Here is an important resistance. This might not be favorable for Chicago Wheat price but one has to consider that US Wheat is still highly priced compared to its competiton in the Black Sea Region. So all in all, I think that the price should fall further.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn2101709
ZW SHORT on 497 Stop on 534Not more than %1 risk on capital, idea is not so brilliant but wort to try. Guys I am sorry I do not enter detail on how I chosee my positions but I can not give detail. I can just say it is systematic and based on COT and Technical analysis together with aware of my emotions (let's say three leg table). There are many different type of COT analysis I know but what I use is a little bit different because I do not follow money mnagaers or leveraged funds I follow farmers...
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by victornewman
Long Wheat on Technical Breakout from Rectangle PatternI went long on Wheat this morning in my paper account due to my original long commodity thesis. I am actively looking to add more commodity exposure to the portfolio, mainly because that's where I believe the outsized returns will come to home roost. On the weekly charts, wheat has broken through the rectangle pattern that spans back to August of 2017. I set my stop loss at 4.06, which if hit, would indicate a false breakout and an incorrect implementation of my bullish thesis at that moment. As always, let me know if you have any further questions or comments.
WLong
by BrandonBeylo
WHEAT - D - LONGReason for long : I'm pulling the trigger a bit fast on this one, as we don't have yet confirmation of end of consolidation on weekly TF. However, as I'm embarassed to miss the natgas rally (this is one of my favorite asset and I have waited weeks for this to finally miss it because of external factors). I believe raw materials are in for a good year in 2018 as cyclical this market can get. I'm not too much into GOLD/SILVER right now and wait for correction. But WHEAT is also tanking a lot since weeks and altough we made some pips weeks ago on false breakout, this was not convincing. This time may be the same... or not. Trade with your own diligence.
OANDA:WHEATUSDLong
by Bastosai
WHEAT, in retraction to zone 446 WHEAT, in retraction to zone 446 which should provide good support and make it bounce continuing the medium to long-term trend XiNiaN 4 - Trading System - V. 2.9.1 - Medium / Long Term Period - (Time Frame: 1 H) WHEAT ZWZ17 - Dec '17 LONG since20.09.2017 from 446.66 Flat Under 446.07    SHORT Below 436.53 Stop SHORT if daily close > 434.62 WHEAT ZWZ17 - Dec '17 CROC X1 - Supports / Resistors - Multiday (TF - 1H) R3 = 475.2 R2 = 474.40 R1 = 473.00 PIVOT = 460.50 S1 = 448.00 CROC X3 - Last Signal (Long Term - TF 1D) LONG from 445.00 since 18/09/2017
CBOT:ZWZ2017
by XiNiaN
WHEAT, improving ..WHEAT, improving .. ADX / DMI multiday is flat and there are good chances that start long in the next sessions A closing time over 448 and a daily closing above 450 is fundamental. The medium-long period will start long with a closing time above 451.48 XiNiaN 4 - Trading System - V. 2.9.1 - Medium / Long Term Period - (Time Frame: 1 H) WHEAT ZWZ17 - Dec '17 SHORT since 24.07.2017 from 521.55 Flat Over 441.78 LONG Above 451.48 Stop LONG if daily close <453.41 the long-time period will start long with a weekly closing over the 445 WHEAT ZWZ17 - Dec '17 CROC X1 - Supports / Resistances - Multiday (TF - 1H) R3 = 474.4 R2 = 473.00 R1 = 448.00 CROC X3 - Last Signal (Long Term - TF 1D) FLAT from 445.00 since 13/09/2017
CBOT:ZWZ2017
by XiNiaN