Wheat
Wheat bullish at lower wedge area or on a breakout above itWith oscillators diverging I will be expecting Wheat to reach 380 or lower again to look for long positions expecting finally a breakout out of the long-term wedge pattern. On the other hand if the low is already in, I will be waiting for a break out above the wedge and above the weekly Ichimoku cloud to go long. The upside is expected to be explosive. For now I remain patient with no position.
LONG Wheat SetupLONG Wheat Trade Setup on the DAILY chart - LONG on a Break ABOVE Resistance 428'6 with TARGET around 449'2.
$WHEAT - "La Niña" - The Final Countdown... very strong downward trend. I hope that the severe winter change the trend on the chart.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
When bottoming or not yet?Wheat in a downtrend since 2012 and I think this is not the end, but, can be a turning point for a while...
Second target would a dream to hold Wheat long ETF for years :)
CBoT wheat continuous long playWheat:
Price made an almost 2% corrective move down during the past week after its strong 5% swing up of the week before that.
We have put a first supportive level at 413 in the chart which was tested twice during the past week and which we would not like to see broken on basis of EOD. We should, however, not be stunned if same support will be penetrated during Monday's and/or Tuesday's trading sessions and even a close below same supportive level will not change our bull scenario as long as our pivotal support at 395 remains unbroken.
The upper ascending trend line has been broken to the upside and is now being tested back as support which we expect to hold with, as mentioned before, a possible penetration during one of the sessions early in the week.
Our bottom line outlook is to the upside with significantly higher prices ahead.
Wheat may have hit its pullbackLooking at 30M chart, it's possible that wheat has made its pullback. The TSI could be finding support at 0 and RSI on 40. Based on next open and if these indicators move up off this support may try a dec wheat call.
Looking at the daily chart, the RSI and TSI look bullish and the ADX with +DMI looks like it could be setting up a change in dominance from down trend.
Daily looks like it hit some resistance at the 23.6% retrace area between the 6/8 high and 8/31 low. I think that price will move up to challenge other areas of retrace as noted on daily chart.
CBoT wheat has a confirmed bottom and a long play is validWheat:
This price chart is showing us TA straight from the text books with an, almost violent, test back down of the support, a repeated and strong knock on the door of resistance at 415 after, eventually, price broke up through its resistance during Friday's session. The long topping tail of Friday's candle is probably a sign that bulls needed a bit of breath after their rally run of Thursday and Friday but it could also be the bode of a bull trap so caution is to be added to caution and disciplined stops have to placed solidly and remain untouched (except for trailing up, obviously). Actually, quite an exciting development of this price during the past week with a confirmation of our call for a bottom and much more upward potential for the future.
Our first target for this price is 450/460 for the end of the coming week or, possibly, the week after.
Our pivotal support level is now 395 and if price would break that low we will have to redo our homework and go back to our drawing board. It is always a good policy to trail up your stop ( never down - in bull move that is) and it is worth remembering that taking profit on (a part of) your position won't make you any poorer.
Wheat may be ready to begin a new trend upWheat, on an 8H chart, has broken through key short term resistance last week. Beginning 9/12, ADX had signaled a period of price consolidation which has lasted until 10/13 when price broke through resistance.
This price action and ADX consolidation is reflected on the daily chart too. It is possible that price may have more upside potential before a pullback happens and an entry long could be attempted
The weekly chart, though it has not broken out of resistance or have had it's TSI and RSI turn positive, these two indicators may be showing some key divergences looking at the 2014/09/22 low and recent 2016/08/29 low. Should these areas of divergence hold, i'm looking for the upper line of resistance to be challenged. A key thing to watch on the weekly ADX is if price does move up does the +DMI cross up over the -DMI and the ADX move up above 20. There are a couple of scenarios that can play out should this happen which include either 1) a new bull trend as upper resistance breaks or 2) a drop off of the upper resistance with the ADX above 20 and the -DMI/+DMI swap signaling a change in dominance.
Q: Is this the beginning of an up trend or just another spike on weekly to touch upper resistance? Hard to tell for now and weekly will hold answer over next couple of months.
For now , I'm looking to enter long with dec wheat call but waiting to see if price pulls back first. Ideally, on the 8H chart, the +DMI and -DMI converge toward each other briefly with price pulling back to moving averages.
WHEAT - another pullback from SMAThere's a pullback from the SMA, so wave of 5 is likely going to be continued
CBoT wheat has put a long term bottom on the chart and is a longWheat:
We have called for a bottom on this chart during the past week when, during Wednesday's session, price drew a 'double key reversal' on the chart which was an 'engulfing bullish' candle as well and which both are quite powerful reversal patterns. Much to our dissatisfaction we saw price make a strong pull back during the Thursday session but this could be seen as a test back of the support as well, especially since both Thursday and Friday drew higher lows on the chart despite the strong pullback.
We keep our call for a bottom in this market unless we see the pivotal support at 390 broken in which case we will have to reconsider our bull case scenario for now. Still, we would like to see a decisive break of the 415 level to the upside as reconfirmation of our call for a long term tradable bottom in this market. We consider price to be in 'no-man's land' between the 2 essential values of 390 on the downside and 415 on the upside.
CBoT wheat still waiting for the bottomWheat:
Nothing much happened during the past week and price has mostly been moving sideways during the week with exception for Friday when price took out its most recent lows at 395/393 after which it recovered and made a very strong 3% rally from its LOD.
We still believe that price needs to make one more impulsive move to the downside and we keep our bear bias unchanged. Our bear scenario goes straight into the waste bin if price breaks 411 to the upside.
WHEAT - new low is comingWave of 5 is likely going to be continued, so there's an opportunity to have a hew low in the short term
CBoT wheat still waiting for the bottomWheat:
Price has not really been following our preferred path very precisely lately and has been knocking on the doors of the various resistances repeatedly, especially during the past week. Still, the price action as such during the past 3 weeks does not have anything of an impulse and price shyly tried but failed to trade higher. We still believe that price needs to make one more impulsive move to the downside and we keep our bear bias unchanged as such. We currently see a typical 'bear-flag-pattern' develop which would require price to start trading down from Monday or Tuesday onwards immediately and which would guide price to the 370/360 level by first week of October.
WHEAT - wave [v] of 5 startedWe've got a possible wave {iv}, which was ended under the 144 SMA. So, there's an opportunity to have wave {v} of 5 in the short term.
CBoT wheat close to a bottom but not there yetWheat:
Nothing much to add to our last week's outlook on this chart and price has been following our preferred route quite precisely. Price is now approaching the descending resistance trend line at 407 Monday and at 406 Tuesday with an additional and crucial resistance at 411. As long as price does not break the 411 mark to the upside we maintain our bear bias and do not yet call for a bottom in this market. We are close, however.
CBoT Wheat still waiting for the bottom to formWheat:
We keep our short term bias unchanged and we are still anticipating a bit further decline in price. Thus far price has been following our preferred path reasonably well although the minor correction up started a bit earlier than what we would have thought. From here we expect a little more upside move on Tuesday after which we expect price to continue it move to the downside and reach for the 370/350 level after which we will start looking for a pattern to see whether or not the bottom is finally there.
W - WHEAT: Time to try longThis is the third touch of the Centerline.
As you can see, it springs up every time it lands there.
So, why not this time?
Playing it small...
P!
Christmas wheatieswheat has been pushed down hard on large crop volume and seems like good time to take a shot, will use a calendar spread to reduce cash required
Wheat Futures 240 CBOT Updated 8/30/16Price hit resistance near 450 and also retested blue median line resistance near 430, and has cascaded lower. Look for possible continuation lower to 375-350.
Wheat descending wedge!Wheat appears to be nearing the completion of a major ascending wedge that spans 4-5 years. Best way to take advantage of this would be a wide entry with a safe stop once a bottoming pattern appears on the daily/weekly. My guess is we won't see a bottom until late 2016 or maybe early 2017.
Martin Armstrong has posted about the global *cooling* (not warming) that should begin to impact crop production sending prices sky high. This data adds quite a bit of fundamental confluence on top of the beautiful techs, making the trade even more enticing.
Jim Rogers also sees agriculture *prices* improving in the future in his recent interview with Real Vision TV. He has been saying this for a few years now but also admits he's often VERY early to a trade.
I'll be watching this trade closely for a bottom, going to be a good one!
CBoT wheat waiting for the bottomWheat:
Price took an impressive beating of 8.5% for the week with especially Friday's session being very weak with a 4% decline in value. The move of Friday was very decisive and volatile which is a very strong indication that more decline is to be expected during the coming week. There is no tradable bottom in this market just as yet and we will need to allow price another 7-10% decline before we can think of a tradable low. Even though we now feel that we have a clear vision on what is to come it is by far too late to entertain a short play but at the same time it is too early to consider a long play. Lean back, relax, wait & see.
