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Wheat

Wheat: Time for the turning point ⤴️🚀The recent downward movement has brought the wheat price into our blue trading zone and thus the minimum requirement of the current blue corrective wave (b) has been fulfilled. We expect it to go a little lower, but gradually the price should now form the end of the wave, allowing long entries. In the further sequence, we see the price rising above the resistance at USX 807.25, where we locate the high of the turquoise wave A. However, if the bears dominate and push the price lower, there is a 25% chance that the price will fall below the USX 611.25 support level, which buyers may want to keep in mind.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by MarketIntel
Soybeans poised for a drop?Soybeans have certainly caught our attention as a classic head and shoulders pattern has emerged, suggesting a possible trend reversal. This implies a potential drop equivalent to the height from the head to the neckline, taking us towards the 900 level. Could this be signalling more downside in the soybean market? The current price action is intriguing as an attempt to break the neckline was rejected and prices now hover just below the neckline. Is this the prime moment to consider a short position on soybeans? We think it's worth exploring, and here's why... As we’ve last pointed out in the “It’s Corn!” idea in March, prices of the 3 major agriculture crops, Soybean, Wheat and Corn generally move together. Back then, we were highlighting the excessive premium in Corn futures as well as the break of a technical chart pattern. Now, we're witnessing a similar tale with Soybean stepping into the spotlight. From 2019 until now, these three crops have jockeyed for position in terms of percentage gain. Currently, Soybean is in the lead, when compared to Wheat and Corn, in terms of % gain from pre-COVID times and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Another way to look at it is to compare the ratio between Soybean & Corn as well as Wheat. The Soybean/Corn ratio is now at the higher end of its 7-year range, and while the Soybean/Wheat ratio not as extreme, is still closer to its range top. Another interesting dynamic we can look into is the Natural Gas – Fertilizers – Soybean dynamic. As natural gas is a key input in fertilisers production, the spectacular fall in natural gas prices has preceded falling fertiliser prices. This in turn, impacts soybean prices as well. Hence, we see a potential downside for Soybean as it trades at a premium as compared to Corn & Wheat. We can consider a short position on the Soybean Futures at the current level of 1340 with a stop at 1450 and take profits at 1250 followed by a subsequent take profit level at 900. This will allow profits on the anticipated downward move while also considering the head and shoulders pattern's target. CME’s Soybean Futures is quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Each 0.0025 increment equal to 12.5$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by inspirante
Geopolitical tensions lend a tailwind to wheatThe geopolitics of wheat has once again come under the spotlight. Wheat prices jumped 4%1 as news broke out that a major dam Kakhovka in southern Ukraine had been destroyed. This is not the first mishap with the dam, as both Russia and Ukraine accused each other of planning sabotage back in October 2022. In Ukraine, flooding caused by the destroyed Kakhovka dam not only poses a risk to people, but also will be a major obstruction to agricultural transport and logistics. This casts further doubts on the recently lowered forecasts for Ukraine’s wheat production and exports owing to the destruction. The dam and reservoir situated on the Dnipro River is in the middle of Ukraine’s traditional main wheat growing area and is a major source of farm irrigation. No respite in Russia’s sabre-rattling There has been no respite in Russia’s sabre-rattling surrounding the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was extended last month for an additional two months. The initiative has been instrumental in allowing Ukrainian grain flows to the world by creating a safe transit corridor. Russia has repeatedly specified the re-opening of the ammonia pipeline as a condition for renewing the grain corridor deal through the Black Sea. However, the ammonia pipeline was damaged a day before the Kakhovka dam was destroyed. This increases the risk that Russia could after all follow through on its threat and revoke the grain deal as early as next month. Net speculative positioning in wheat indicates a level of peak bearishness Market participants were caught off-guard evident from the knee-jerk reaction of wheat prices, up 4%2, intraday following the news. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positioning in wheat futures was more than 2-standard deviations below the mean3, underscoring the extent of the bearish view held among investors. Dry weather to slash Australia’s next wheat crop by a third Another catalyst fuelling wheat prices higher was an early season estimate from Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science (ABARES) for a 34% slump in Australia’s wheat production in the coming season. The main reason cited by ABARES is the development of El Niño which is likely to suppress rainfall across large parts of Australia. Dry conditions and low soil moisture in the west and east coasts of Australia imply that much of the 2023-24 crop has been sown dry and will require adequate and timely rain to allow the plants to germinate. Wheat is a major winter crop in Australia with planting from April and the harvest starting in November. The expected onset of the El Niño conditions from July will likely see winter crop output fall significantly according to ABARES. According to the Bureau of Meteorology the dry weather has arrived, with the second driest May on record nationwide and the driest in Western Australia since observations began. Extreme weather conditions among top wheat suppliers to weigh on 2023/24 forecasts Across the globe, wild weather is affecting crops elsewhere, including Americas and North Africa. Europe is also being impacted by high temperatures and scant rainfall, increasing the risk of damage to the continent’s wheat crops. In France, the EU’s largest wheat producer, growing conditions in areas planted to wheat have deteriorated rapidly in recent weeks. The harvest in the largest wheat consumer China has also been affected by torrential rains, potentially boosting demand for wheat imports. Sources 1 Bloomberg as of 6 June 2023 2 Bloomberg as of 6 June 2023 3 Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of 30 May 2023
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by aneekaguptaWTE
Can we have an inverse shoulder?Key Takeaways Wheat market is facing both bullish and bearish news, creating risks for traders and emphasizing the importance of risk management. Hard red winter wheat crop is shorter than both USDA projections and trade expectations, but news of overpriced wheat in the US and milling wheat from Europe entering the market created bearish sentiment. World markets, including weather conditions in key wheat-producing countries like Argentina, Australia, the US, Russia, and Canada, will play a crucial role in determining future wheat prices.
PEPPERSTONE:WHEAT
by ShukriMahadi
Wheat (World) - Short Bias; Cheap Ukrainian wheat everywhere!Sure, it is winter in the northern hemisphere so why even bother with the grains at all? ... ... Because cheap Ukrainian wheat had absolutely flooded European markets, so much so that very soon they will have to start dumping some of it into the ocean! (Right now, they are trying to air out these mountains of grain, so it wouldn't mold, but that will go only so far.) Normally, this time of the year, 55-60 ships per week get loaded with Ukrainian wheat, headed for Africa and Asia. As of last week, these numbers are down to 19 ships . Russia closed the Bosporus to Ukrainian wheat (and oil seed) shipments. As an alternative solution, Ukraine is shipping most of its harvest to the EU - mostly Poland & Germany - to load it on ships in those ports. - But guess what ... ... shipping it all to Europe AND THEN load it onto ships makes the whole proposition economically non-viable. (Well below producer cost.) So now, the endless trainloads of grains, continuously pouring into the EU, gets dumped all over EU markets (at 40%-60% discounts!) because long empty local silos are all filled to capacity. There is now zero (0) storage capacity left anywhere in Europe! (... and the endless trainloads just keep on coming.) ... making this trade - not a monster - rather a no-brainer. (Like free beer)
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
10
Sell wheat everyday 🐻🍞Who sells wheat everyday? It’s the price-reducing wheat bears who want to provide us all with a cheap basic supply of food. "Affordable wheat for all," chant they, offering reduced-price bushels of wheat to anyone who comes their way. At the moment, they are not to be restrained in their sell-off ecstasy, however, we already see the low of the blue wave (v) lying shortly before us, which means that this sell-off should soon come to its end. The wheat price is already in our green target zone here (between USX 662 and USX 472), where we expect a trend reversal. The bulls should therefore report back before too long and point to the need for higher wheat prices. It should be noted that with the end of said blue (v) wave, an overarching and relatively long-lasting correction should also come to its end. Therefore, our green highlighted target zone can serve as an excellent entry opportunity for speculations on the long side.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
Wheat (The revenge of the fallen!) View On Wheat(16 May 2023) Wheat is in * Uptrend in short term (Intraweek) * Uptrend in Mid term (Intramonth) * Downtrend in Long term (Last 3 months) We had a strong wake up call yesterday and it ends with bullish tones. Now $640 region is acting as strong support and it can rise higher for now. We shall see $700 region soon. Let's see. DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too. Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment". Thank You! Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading crypto, foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
FX:WHEATFLong
by SonicDeejay
Grain Strain: How Geopolitical Unrest Threatens Wheat Prices AmiOpinion: The recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, following the assassination attempt on the Russian president, has raised concerns about the potential impact on global wheat prices. This situation becomes even more significant if Russia decides to withdraw from its agreements with Ukraine. As major players in the global wheat market, Russia and Ukraine together account for about 29% of the world's wheat exports, with Russia being the largest exporter, contributing around 18.5% in 2020. Any disruptions in their wheat production or export capabilities can have substantial implications for international prices, particularly considering the inelastic demand for wheat. Wheat, as a staple food for many populations, has an inelastic demand, meaning that changes in its price have a relatively small impact on the quantity demanded. Given this inelastic nature, disruptions in the wheat supply due to geopolitical issues may result in significant price fluctuations, as consumers' demand remains relatively constant despite price increases. In the event of Russia's withdrawal from its agreements with Ukraine, several consequences could directly or indirectly affect global wheat prices: Intensified conflict and regional instability may disrupt wheat production and transportation. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the conflict has already led to a 15-20% reduction in agricultural production in affected areas. Further escalation could exacerbate these issues, limiting wheat production and export capabilities for both countries. The resulting supply shortages could disproportionately affect wheat prices, given the inelastic demand. Geopolitical uncertainties created by the conflict could lead to trade restrictions and sanctions. In the past, Western countries have imposed sanctions against Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine. For example, in 2014, the United States and the European Union imposed economic sanctions on Russia, which impacted various sectors, including agriculture. If the situation deteriorates, additional sanctions could limit Russia's ability to export wheat to certain markets, creating supply chain disruptions and increasing the volatility of wheat prices on the global market, even with the inelastic demand. Potential impacts on wheat prices could prompt other major wheat producers to adjust their production levels in response to shifting global demand. For instance, countries like the United States, Canada, and Australia may increase domestic production or seek alternative sources to secure their wheat supplies. As of 2021, these countries collectively contributed around 30% of the world's wheat exports. Changes in their production strategies could further affect global wheat prices, especially considering the inelastic nature of wheat demand. The heightened uncertainty due to the assassination attempt on the Russian president and the subsequent escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine could lead to increased speculation in the commodities market. In 2021, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures saw significant price fluctuations in response to changing geopolitical situations. Traders may continue to react to the heightened uncertainty by buying or selling wheat futures contracts, which can influence short-term price movements and contribute to market volatility, despite the inelastic demand. In conclusion, the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have the potential to significantly impact global wheat prices, particularly if Russia withdraws from its agreements with Ukraine. Consequences of such a decision could include disruptions to wheat production and transportation, trade restrictions and sanctions, adjustments in global wheat production, and increased market speculation. The inelastic nature of wheat demand could exacerbate these impacts, leading to considerable price fluctuations. To mitigate the potential effects of these developments on wheat prices, it is essential for governments, producers, and traders to closely monitor the situation and develop contingency plans to ensure the stability of wheat supplies and markets. Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. FED Macro Situation Consideration: All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by TheBitcoinGeneration
1
Corn is at the critical supportAs shipping cost drops we see that corn , wheat , cotton are dropping fast. This is a disinflational signal OR a big recession signal. We will see what is going to happen after today's NFP and unemployment numbers. Corn is at a good support point. It may rise again if we see NFP is lower than expected or an increase in the unemployment numbers. Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FX:CORNF
by WhaleGambit
Nutrien - Fertilizer Plays Into Growing Season, But a Coinflip2022's droughts and the Ukraine War put a lot of the world's food supply into question. Food commodity futures had a pretty bullish year. Since we're in mid-February and Western Hemisphere growing season is right upon us, fertilizer stocks are really worth paying attention to. Food scarcity is an even bigger issue with the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic smashing Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party over in Mainland China. The Party claims less than a hundred thousand people have died from COVID since this all began. But the Party is obviously lying about that, since China had 1.4 billion people and was the epicenter of the virus. America is on the other side of the ocean and lost 1.1+ million people. My point is that if China has really lost, say, 40 or 50 or 100 million people to the pandemic, the Party will need to import crops because there won't be all that many farmers around anymore to do the work of feeding the regime. This should be a bullish situation for food commodities and fertilizer. Nutrien is one of the market leaders, but this is a really difficult setup, a lot like flipping a coin, and here's why. 1. A monthly microgap at $64 that the algorithm spent a lot of effort keeping lows away from 2. Already a 40%+ retrace, but new lows haven't been set. 3. Daily bars show a perfect continuation of the downtrend line 4. Weekly bars show a sweep of the downtrend line 5. Earnings is Feb. 15 So, here's what I think at the moment. It's something of a gamble, but I think you can generate Alpha with puts on Nutrien before earnings. I say this, but realize that "generating Alpha" doesn't buy rice at the grocery store. It's like Sklansky Bucks in poker. Cool, you got +EV, but the donk took all your money. At least you can post a bad beat, I guess. In this case I think the play is not as unrealistic. Another fertilizer giant, CF Holdings, has earnings the same day: Feb. 15 postmarket, and started doing the bearish "orderblocking" thing two sessions ago These patterns before earnings are generally (emphasis on generally ) harbingers of a big gap down coming. The logic being that sell orders are being filled in anticipation of what smart money's big data analysis has already very accurately determined is about to happen Monday you get an FOMC member jawboning and Tuesday we get the dreaded CPI printout. It's a lot of volatility confluencing together in one big coagulate and if you guess right you win a cookie and if you guess wrong Wall Street guys will pay stripers with your money at 11:00 PM happy hour. In Nutrien's Q3 '22 financials the company told investors that they expected demand to be hot going into _fall_, and not spring, "Weather has been favorable in North America and we anticipate that the rapid pace of harvest will support strong fall ammonia demand and normal application rates of potash, phosphate and crop protection products." They also said, "We have lowered our global potash shipment forecast to between 60 and 62 million tonnes in 2022, largely due to the impact of higher-than-expected inventory and cautious buying in North America and Brazil during the second half of 2022." These two factors contrast against expectations from the company that expectations of higher 2023 commodity prices will lead to an increase in farm production, while noting that Ukraine will be down some 45% because of the war, notable because they were pretty much the world's wheat kings. Also noteworthy is Q3 was a big revenue/EPS miss for Nutrien. Estimates were 3.85 EPS and came in at $2.49. Revenue was $8.53B and came in at $7.91B. Q4 is a lot easier of a goalpost to hit, with estimates at $2.534 EPS and $7.392 Revenue. A miss here would (logically) definitely be a dumpster. So, ultimately, I think $110 Nutrien will come, and we may very well see this in the later part of '23, if not the early part of '24. But before then, it seems that the $60s are imminent. So, I'd rather do puts on CF than Nutrien into earnings as it stands, but staying flat and playing the consequences is a lot less risk. The two areas to watch for on Nutrien: 1. $63 to buy 2. $110 to sell It would be a big, bullish deal if Nutrien doesn't break this daily trendline and just dumps on earnings. $65 commons prices and 3-6+ month expiry call options should definitely be a fat return if you can ride it to the top.
NYSE:NTR
by LordWrymouth
2