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Wheat

It’s trading wheaty (pretty) high now...Continuing the topic of spreads between related commodities, the Hard Red Winter Wheat – Soft Red Winter Wheat spread is another one trading at an extreme level now. A brief explanation on the different types of wheat we are referring to here: 1) The Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW) is the most widely grown class of wheat. A high protein product, used for breads, some types of Asian noodles and general-purpose flour. 2) The Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRW) is the third largest class of wheat variety grown in the US, lower protein wheat used in producing confectionary products such as cookies, crackers, and other bread products. Generally, the HRW Wheat Futures (KE) trades at a premium to the SRW Wheat Futures (ZW) due to the higher protein content, however other factors such as production levels and supply demand dynamics may disrupt this spread, as seen from the wide range it has been trading since 1977. Currently, this spread is trading close to 132 cents, with only one instance where it has traded higher, which was in March 2011 when this spread reached an all-time high of 164. We attribute the spread trading at a high now due to the following 2 reasons: 1) The 2022 HRW production is currently the lowest on record since 1963, due to widespread droughts across many of the HRW production regions. 2) The average protein content of the 2022 yield is higher than last year, as well as the average of the past 5 years, resulting in a higher quality crop. As a result, HRW is trading at a premium as supply shortage and a higher quality product pushes the price higher, while SRW sees average production and quality. While it is challenging to assess the production levels and quality for the next season, from a risk reward perspective, we see an opportunity here. The past few spread peaks have been clearly marked out by Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing oversold. With the 10-year average for the spread at 6.3 cents and the RSI now oversold, we lean bearish on the spread. Referencing the average of the past 3 declines at 150 cents and lasting 511 days, we could set out trade levels. If the historical pattern holds this time, a conservative target of 120 cents and a trade length of 500 days points us to the 15-cent level. We see the current set-up as an opportunistic one, with similar episodes in the past pointing lower. CME also has the synthetic KC HRW Wheat-Wheat Intercommodity Spread, which can be used to express the same view and is financially settled. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Sources: www.uswheat.org www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.usda.gov
CBOT:KE1!Education
by inspirante
14
Wheat Cash CFD Trade Plan - Long & Short Hello Traders; Wheat Cash CFD - Globalprime Trade Plan. Long / Buy Trade. Entry Level on break on upper support blue line @ 810.92 to 794.79 Take Profit 1 @ Daily Resistance / FIB 23.6% Level 855.86 Take Profit 2 @ 4 Hour Resistance / FIB 38.2% level 938.27 Take Profit 3 @ 1 Hour Resistance zone / FIB 61.80% level 1063.56 Stop Loss @ Daily Support Level / FIB 0 % Level 728.20 Lot Size : Portfolio Size 10000 Risk to Reward 1 : 1 Lot size 7 units @ 5% Risk TP 1 = Total PIPS in gain = 81.18 Profit 7.73 % TP 2 = Total PIPS in gain = 143.48 Profit 18.31% TP 3 = Total PIPS in gain = 268.77 Profit 33.95% Total PIPS in Stop loss = 66.59 Loss 8.24% Short / Sell Trade. Entry Level on break on Lower support Red line @ 787.73 to 784.71 Take Profit 1 @ Daily Support / FIB 0.% Level 728.20 Take Profit 2 @ Daily Support at 675.89 Take Profit 3 @ Daily Support at 610.30 Stop Loss @ Daily Support Level / FIB 23.60% Level 855.86 Lot Size : Portfolio Size 10000 Risk to Reward 1 : 1 Lot size 8 units @ 5% Risk TP 1 = Total PIPS in gain = 56.86 Profit 6.82 % TP 2 = Total PIPS in gain = 107.84 Profit 13.62% TP 3 = Total PIPS in gain = 174.41 Profit 21.97% Total PIPS in Stop loss = 71.98 Loss 9.25% Regards
WLong
by dilsnqamz
WHEAT // market is in daily impulseHi✋🏽 Trend is short, and price tested the last daily south breakout, then turned. Targets are marked by the fibo. What do you think??? Trade safe! ⚪️⚫️ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter. I JUST REACT! Thanks for reading my analysis!🤘🏽 Remember that trading is a business. SIZE your TRADES according to your risk aversion! ----------------------------------------------------------
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by TheMarketFlow
1
Wheat, why this last raising?My backtests, September and October are not good months for long swing trading, but Im finding some reason from last WASDE reports *****************September release on wheat – U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month – Global wheat outlook raises supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month, as production increases for Russia and Ukraine, more than offset a decline in beginning stocks. Area harvested, yield, and production for Russia will all reach record highs . The Ukraine production forecast is increased as higher yields in the Forest and Forest-Steppe zones ******************October release on wheat ***US*** - The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies , domestic use, exports, and stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower 2022/23 production. Reductions in both harvested area and yield. Production only minimally higher than last year Partially offsetting the production decline are higher projected imports. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since 1971/72 Projected ending stocks are lowered ***WORLD*** The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 wheat is for reduced supplies , consumption, trade, and stocks. reduced production for the United States and Argentina more than offsetting higher EU production although world production remains at a record Global consumption is reduced on lower food, seed, and industrial use more than offsetting higher feed and residual use. World trade is lowered on reduced exports by the United States and Argentina more than offsetting higher EU exports. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered mostly on a reduction for the United States.
FX:WHEATFLong
by giancarlopagliaroli
1
Wednesday notes - SPX Wheat Gold DXY DAX Bonds etc.Some pre market commentary, SPX - expecting a bear trap after open, then higher. Wheat may be affected by the hurricane in Florida, Bonds hit an important fib extension, Gold looks promising if it can get over 1675 resistance, DXY also looks like it may pullback - BTC could still move to lower 18000 area before a move up (would align with one more low in equities) but it doesn't have to go down that far. Dax has broken monthly trendline, expect a retest over the coming weeks. I forgot oil - looks good for a strong bounce here, pullbacks are likely bought. OK good luck!
XETR:DAXLong
by the_sunship
2
Wheat Mini Futures (XW1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish rise Resistance : 1016'7 Pivot: 915'5 Support : 818'0 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 915'5, which is in line with the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 1016'7 where the 50% and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 818'0 where the overlap support and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT_MINI:XW1!Long
by Genesiv
the FOMC idea - SPX, BONDS, WHEAT, GOLD, DXY, BTCFomc is at 2pm today. Many are expecting a rally, and that could be - but be careful of a pump and dump. Another option is it just dumps to 3700 quickly which for me would be a buy zome. Bonds may be close to a turn and Powell may signal something dovish to that market today, Wheat looks good and now we are expecting pullbacks to be bought, Gold also looks good for a rally and DXY looks ready to pullback soon. BTC also holding support at that 19k level. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by the_sunship
6
WHEAT breakout long entryWHEAT had a beautiful breakout candle yesterday, breaking the prior consolidation zone. I'm most interested in this idea because once I ran fib retracements there is so much alignment: 618 is perfect prior support, 0.5 is a teeeeny tiny gap, 382 is a consolidation zone, and we've defeated 236. Follow through and it is off to $10 at minimum. TP/SL targets pictured on chart. SL: trade setup invalidated with a daily close below 8.45. TP: $10 and above, depending on how you trade
AMEX:WEATLong
by upslidedown
Wheat Rally back on with Russian AnnexWheat surged $60 last night as Russia annouced votes in the local donbas regions they control in Ukraine. Critical to the wheat exports the port in that area also means perhaps sanctions and increased fighting may hurt global supply already under pressure. Adding to momentum is global headline news about beer shortages which adds to the grain rally. As long as these issues persist Wheat may trade aggressively higher as commodites move alot more sharply with the start of the war brining highs of $1300.
EASYMARKETS:WHTUSDLong
by easyMarkets