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Wheat

Daily Wheat Market Update (6.14.22)Wheat Technicals (July): More of the same for wheat, as we continue to trade in a range, albeit a wide range. Wheat futures continue to chop around from about 1030 on the low end and 1100 on the high end. A breakout or breakdown from these levels could pop or drop the market 50 cents relatively quickly. Our bias is Neutral at the moment, but we would be looking to be lean bearish at higher levels. When we say higher levels, we are talking about a retracement of the May 31st breakdown point near 1150. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1142 ¾-1150***, 1200-1205 ¼** Pivot: 1095-1102 Support: 1027 ¼-1034 ¼**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Wheat Futures, the Modern Day Yo-YoWheat Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 2,905 futures/options contracts, through June 7th. This shrinks their net long position to 13,774. Broken down, that is 82,385 longs VS 68,611 shorts. Technicals: Wheat futures continue to chop around in a wide range, from about 1030 on the low end and 1100 on the high end. A breakout or breakdown from these levels could pop or drop the market 50 cents relatively quickly. Our bias is Neutral at the moment, but we would be looking to be lean bearish at higher levels. When we say higher levels, we are talking about a retracement of the May 31st breakdown point near 1150. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1142 ¾-1150***, 1200-1205 ¼** Pivot: 1095-1102 Support: 1027 ¼-1034 ¼**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
WEAT ETV To Play The Future Price of WheatWEAT's price, an ETV which trades wheat futures, is positioned to keep increasing as the horrible war in Ukraine rages on. I accumulated this back at the $6.5 - $7 price level as a response to the decrease in fertilizer (thank you China for hoarding and mismanaging) and increases in crop disruption due to climate change related disasters. As you can see, it was chugging along nicely within the channel I drew back in Sept. I was expecting the continuation of nice returns as I've been playing the top and bottom of the channel. I had no idea that the #1 and #5 producers of wheat would go to war before spring planting and now we can expect the price of wheat and wheat futures to sky rocket. There is supply side destruction for at least one year that is being priced in right now but the decrease in fertilizer and climate disruption effecting the rest of the producers has not. Where the market hasn't yet priced something in, there is profit to be made. Wheat and thus WEAT's price has open skies once it breaks through the $12.65 level and the broader cup, of the cup and handle formation it has been forming for years, will be put in at $24.65, then down to put in the handle, reset and then put in a big impulsive wave up.
AMEX:WEATLong
by SloppySeconds
4
Real economy beating expectations yet markets trading in red 🤔INVESTMENT CONTEXT President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was not blocking Ukrainian wheat from being exported, and that the grain could be dispatched via ports controlled either by Russia or Ukraine. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine accounted for ca. 29% of international annual wheat sales U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, beating analyst expectations (325,000) and showing resilient real economy in the face of rampant inflation and higher interest rates Crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell to 414.7 million barrels in the wake of strong demand, yet limiting chances of further releases to cool domestic energy prices Goldman Sachs COO John Waldron followed JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon saying “This is among if not the most complex, dynamic environment I’ve ever seen in my career". On a similar tone, in a leaked Tesla email, Elon Musk cited having a "super bad feeling" about the economy as the main reason for shedding 10% of the company's workforce PROFZERO'S TAKE When good news are met with S&P 500 dropping more than 1.50%, and Nasdaq doing even worse at 2.47% in the red, we know something is off. That's what happens when bears are in control, and policy makers are desperate to understand how far can they move with tightening before the backlash. A remarkably strong U.S. economy just added 390,000 jobs in May, beating analyst expectations and reassuring the Fed it could maintain the trajectory of 50bps rate hikes in July and August. ProfZero clearly welcomes Main Street's resilience and rising wages - yet, as anticipated in Step99 podcast, it cautions against the forward-looking effects of monetary policy vs. the actual state of the economy. As pointed out by The Economist, "A recession in America by 2024 looks likely" - today's strength of the real economy may at best soften its blow Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser sees "three R" whiplashing EU economy - rates, Russia and recession, this latter happening in Europe ahead of the U.S. because of "the energy side (...) really having an impact". ProfZero has made energy a key theme of this Parlay, with potentially more decisive effects on the real economy than monetary policy. With Brent testing again USD 120/boe and fading cushion inventories from the U.S., it is hard to imagine how the EU will cope with the next cold season without rationing output, hence slashing GDP growth. Regasification plants and last-generation nuclear are definitely tools of the future; but by then, are seaborne imports going to be enough? Equities are definitely off the lows witnessed in April and early May - perhaps Musk's "super bad feeling" and Mr. Dimon's "hurricane" are rather looming on the real economy? Not an inch less worrying... BTC once again confidently breaking up the mid-term triangle pattern and trying to regain 32k after trading below 30k on June 4-5 - and yet ProfZero's eyes are set on the lurking death cross on 200MA PROFONE'S TAKE After sharing about lithium and nickel, ProfOne completes the overview of rare minerals that are crucial for the production of batteries setting its eyes are on cobalt. Cobalt prices soared from USD 30k/ton in January to USD 52k in May - on top of the 2x surge in 2021 vs. 2020. According to the Cobalt Institute, in the next five years cobalt demand is expected to hit 320k/ton, up from 175k/ton in 2021. ProfOne argues that meeting such demand won’t be operatively easy. For once, cobalt is yet another highly concentrated resource: about 70% of world’s cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where production is dominated by Chinese companies and commodities trader Glencore (GLEN). Adding to it that world's second supplier of cobalt is Russia, the metals puzzle turns out to be a fairly intricate one
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Daily Grain Futures Volatility Forecast 26 May 22 ZS ZC ZW WHEAT ZW 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 90% chance to be below 4.17% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 1180 BOT 1085 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN ZC 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 90% chance to be below 2.41% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 781 BOT 744 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEAN ZS 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 90% chance to be below 2% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 1709 BOT 1641 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBOT:ZS1!
by exlux
Time to think out of the box 💡INVESTMENT CONTEXT Equities failed to sustain May 23 uptick, with bears firmly in control of the market sending Nasdaq in the low 11k bracket U.S. retailer Best Buy (BBY) missed EPS forecasts, but downplayed recession fears S&P Global’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a measure of the services and manufacturing industries, fell to 51.8 in May, its lowest level since February 2021; meanwhile, new home sales in the U.S. fell 26.9% on a yearly basis At Davos, Davos, George Soros remarked that “Indeed, the Russian invasion may turn out to be the beginning of World War III, and our civilization may not survive it“ After taking a leading role in Netflix (NFLX) one-day 30% slump, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman tweeted "Inflation is out of control (...) Markets are imploding because investors are not confident that the (Fed) will stop inflation. If the Fed doesn’t do its job, the market will do the Fed’s job" PROFZERO'S TAKE Tensions in Ukraine remain high after Russia's capture of the port-city of Mariupol. As EU's resolve is being tested by the concerns of some member States (Hungary in particular) on energy security, analysts see the conflict in Donbas dragging in a protracted war of attrition. ProfZero hasn't failed to notice the regained momentum of RUB in the wake of the growing fringe of European energy companies bowing to Moscow's request of supplies being paid in its own currency - yet the catch 22 is becoming thornier by the hour now that soft commodities vehemently entered the picture, escalating the crisis to a global level Russia may in fact be nearing default, as the U.S. Treasury Department said it would end as of May 25 a waiver that allowed Russia’s central bank to process payments to bondholders in USD through U.S. and international banks, on a case-by-case basis. The first tranche of interest on debt is scheduled for May 27, when EUR 100mln are due on two bonds. ProfZero has long been reporting the eventual default of Russia as a further aggravating catalyst to the overall macro scenario - now that the moment of truth nears, ripples from the eventual default also must be accounted for, starting from the consequences to soft commodities Buffett binging on U.S. equities while Soros calling the possible end of our civilization. Coincidence? As much as Bill Ackman, ProfZero only believes in the inescapable, cold efficiency of the market. Greed has all it takes to eat inflation's lunch ProfZero is starting to feel uneasy about the prolonged range-bound trading pattern drawn by BTC. Whilst impressed by the resilience of the entire blockchain space to the broader turmoil, and even more so by the rebound after LUNA's demise, ProfZero argues the current trading structure conjures fears of sudden, major drops should bears launch a short attack on the segment (much akin to the meltdown on April 29)
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Volatility 19 May 22 Grains Commodities Futures CORN ZC Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5612 candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.59% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.99% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 15.48 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 85% probability for today are going to be TOP 797.5 BOT 766.5 WHEAT ZW Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5600 candles our expected volatility for today is around 2.84% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 3.55% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 43.13 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be TOP 1265.34 BOT 1178.65 SOYBEAN ZS Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5600 candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.19% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.49% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 24.82 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be TOP 1688.5 BOT 1639 OAT ZO Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5600 candles our expected volatility for today is around 2.43% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 3.04% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 19.56 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be TOP 664.35 BOT 625.15 COCOA CC Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5615 candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.46% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.82% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 44.98 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 85% probability for today are going to be TOP 2550.62 BOT 2459.4 COTTON CT Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5615 candles our expected volatility for today is around 2.24% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 2.8% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 4 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 85% probability for today are going to be TOP 148.5 BOT 140.5 COFFEE KC Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5615 candles our expected volatility for today is around 2.94% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 3.67% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 7.92 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 83% probability for today are going to be TOP 226 BOT 210
ICEUS:KC1!
by exlux
WHEAT CONTINUES RALLY2022 is not a typical year for the WHEAT. Not only it is a staple food for a big portion of the population, but after the beginning of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, the supply of the commodity in Europe and other parts of the world is less than secure. It is expected Russia to use the wheat as a political weapon against countries that oppose its actions. That combined with the inflation the world is currently experiencing can suggest that the price of the commodity will keep rising. Both MACD and RSI are confirming the continuation of the bullish trend. If the rally continues, the price will test its previous high at 1347.19 USD. On the other hand, if predictions do not come to fruition and rally reverses, the price will first test its gap level at 1187.97 and then eventually its previous support at 1028.44 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
WLong
by legacyFXofficial
Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bullish rise!Type : Bullish rise Resistance 1281'6 Pivot: 1240'6 Support : 1216'4 Preferred Case: With price above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1281'6 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance from our pivot at 1240'6 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1216'4 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. Fundamentals: No Major News Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Genesiv
Wheat prices are soaring higher and here is why:As of now wheat was in bull rally, updating new ATH's, since the start of Russia's war against Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine control over 30% of world wheat exports and now Ukraine can't export it's wheat because of navy blockade, and Russia tightens it's wheat export policies planning to use it as a weapon against unfriendly countries later. A couple months ago India announced that it will replace Ukraine and Russia with it's own exports, however Mother Nature didn't like those plans as India soon got hit by anomalous heatwave of 40-45 degrees across whole country. Those, On 14th of May India banned wheat exports as crop predictions got considerably lower. European Wheat futures already updated All-time highs, trading above 430€ and I don't think we are ever close to reaching reversal. From technical standpoint we see triangle and we need to see longer accumulation before breaking current all-time high. What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Artem_Dishel
2
Wheat is soaring higher and will continue to grow. Here's why:As of now wheat was in bull rally, updating new ATH's, since the start of Russia's war against Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine control over 30% of world wheat exports and now Ukraine can't export it's wheat because of navy blockade, and Russia tightens it's wheat export policies planning to use it as a weapon against unfriendly countries later. A couple months ago India announced that it will replace Ukraine and Russia with it's own exports, however Mother Nature didn't like those plans as India soon got hit by anomalous heatwave of 40-45 degrees across whole country. Those, On 14th of May India banned wheat exports as crop predictions got considerably lower. European Wheat futures already updated All-time highs, trading above 430€ and I don't think we are ever close to reaching reversal. From technical standpoint we see triangle and we need more accumulation before breaking current all-time high. What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Artem_Dishel
Mar 12 22-Wheat Buy? Will it go to ATH?So is it time to buy? Wheat ended going on a tear today - straight up!! Question is .... for all of you who didn't get in on the profits today, do you get in now and go long? Or do you wait for a Sell Signal and go short? Hard to say - I did make some money today going long, but I TP wayyyyy too early. Anyway, now I'm in the same boat as you guys - get in now or wait? Went up 100 points at the evening open - I shoulda put in a Buy Order right away - missed that one too. Thoughts anyone? Heiko
CBOT:ZW1!
by HEIKOTradingSystem
Wheat Futures ( ZC1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 1196'4 Pivot: 1154'2 Support : 1132'6 Preferred Case: With price moving above our ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the horizontal swing high resistance from our pivot of 1154'2 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and and 78.6% Fibonacci project. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support in line with the pullback support. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Genesiv