Wheat Futures Are at a Crossroads – Here’s What I’m SeeingAlright, here’s where things stand with wheat futures, and this one feels like it’s balancing on a knife’s edge. We’re sitting right around 571, and honestly, the chart could break either way. Moments like these can be exciting, but they’re also where preparation makes all the difference—whether you catch the right move or get left chasing after it.
If the price drops below 564, we could see it slide down to 554, 543, and maybe even 535. This kind of move would likely mean that supplies are holding strong, or demand is weaker than expected. It might not happen all at once, but once that first level breaks, sellers could pile on, and each support level below becomes the next stop on the way down. It’s like the market testing where buyers are willing to step back in.
But if the bulls get their act together and push above 600, the game changes. That’s the kind of breakout that could attract a lot of momentum and send prices heading toward 620. It wouldn’t take much—maybe bad weather affecting crops or surprising export numbers—and suddenly, we’d see buyers jump back in with force. When a psychological level like 600 cracks, traders love to pile on, and things can move quickly.
This is one of those trades where you’ll want to stay sharp. Just watch the levels, have a plan, and let the market show you the way. Whether it’s a slide down or a breakout higher, there’s opportunity either way. If this breakdown helped, like, boost, follow, and drop a comment—always better when we trade together.
Mindbloome Trader
Wheat_trading
ZW- Wheat Futures Reverse to Upside LONGZW is shown as the December 2023 contracts on the 2H chart have reversed
in the past two days and price has increased over 2% in that interval.
The indicators show a flip in the volatility and a blue bar volume spike
in the reversal. Price is presently about 15% below the double tops and
pivot highs of June and July. Price is presently crossing over the mean
VWAP anchored 7-8 trading days ago and so demonstrating the bullish
momentum of the past couple of days.
I see this as an excellent long trade setup especially suitable to using
leverage in the trade and expect the uptrend to potentially capture
a 7-8% gain in the retracement of the downtrend then amplified by
the leverage applied.
Wheat deal in the Black Sea- Strike Causes Price Rise LONGWEAT is a popular ETF tracking wheat as a commodity. Because of geopolitical issues
the rising price is an escalator for basic food prices from Africa to USA and globally.
Sugar is a commodity that always seems to rise. Here on this daily chart, I have plotted
the ratio of wheat to sugar spot prices which typically is a falling ratio. However, the
downtrend pivoted to coincide with the wheat deal for Ukraine falling apart and pressuring
commodity prices. On the RSI indicator both low TF and highTF are rising and are not
overall to strong. I can easily conclude that wheat is a safe long bet a slow mover that
might be low risk in what right now is a chaotic and volatile market that could be topping out.
There is no expected flip of the wheat price trend until the geopolitical winds change
direction. I will open a long position in WEAT and check CORN for a similar analysis.
Wheat: Time for the turning point ⤴️🚀The recent downward movement has brought the wheat price into our blue trading zone and thus the minimum requirement of the current blue corrective wave (b) has been fulfilled. We expect it to go a little lower, but gradually the price should now form the end of the wave, allowing long entries. In the further sequence, we see the price rising above the resistance at USX 807.25, where we locate the high of the turquoise wave A. However, if the bears dominate and push the price lower, there is a 25% chance that the price will fall below the USX 611.25 support level, which buyers may want to keep in mind.
Wheat (World) - Short Bias; Cheap Ukrainian wheat everywhere!Sure, it is winter in the northern hemisphere so why even bother with the grains at all? ...
... Because cheap Ukrainian wheat had absolutely flooded European markets, so much so that very soon they will have to start dumping some of it into the ocean! (Right now, they are trying to air out these mountains of grain, so it wouldn't mold, but that will go only so far.)
Normally, this time of the year, 55-60 ships per week get loaded with Ukrainian wheat, headed for Africa and Asia.
As of last week, these numbers are down to 19 ships .
Russia closed the Bosporus to Ukrainian wheat (and oil seed) shipments.
As an alternative solution, Ukraine is shipping most of its harvest to the EU - mostly Poland & Germany - to load it on ships in those ports. - But guess what ...
... shipping it all to Europe AND THEN load it onto ships makes the whole proposition economically non-viable. (Well below producer cost.)
So now, the endless trainloads of grains, continuously pouring into the EU, gets dumped all over EU markets (at 40%-60% discounts!) because long empty local silos are all filled to capacity. There is now zero (0) storage capacity left anywhere in Europe! (... and the endless trainloads just keep on coming.)
... making this trade - not a monster - rather a no-brainer. (Like free beer)
Wheat Long flag PatternHere are few points i am looking for long entry
1. Down trend finished
2. Price bouncing off a strong level 708-711
3. Pole starting point showing us strong momentum
4. Good Risk and reward trade
5.Keep im mind todays are US holiday keep an eye for weak break out / fake out potential
6.Strong break out bar AS required !!
Wheat price attempts to recover – AnalysisWheat price decline stopped around 740.00 areas, to start rising and hint heading to achieve expected gains in the upcoming sessions, on its way to visit 778.10 mainly.
Therefore, the bullish bias will be suggested for today, and breaching 758.50 will ease the mission of achieving the mentioned target, while breaking 745.00 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to resume the bearish track.
Financial Wave. WheatIn past reviews, we considered the $760 level as critical for our upside scenario in our preferable variant. The price of wheat fell below $760 and the most likely scenario is to continue the decline to the next target level of $600. Today's close above $760 will resume the uptrend.
Financial Wave. WheatWheat.
The price of WHEAT dropped to $760. We marked this level as a point of cancellation of our priority scenario, in case the price continues to fall, most likely wheat will continue to decline to $600. We’ll inform you about the changes in our wave counting in the near future, at the moment we stick to our view: this is the growth of WHEAT to new highs, but we do not exclude that it will have to be corrected.
Black Sea Wheat futures SHORT to $250Futures for Black Sea Wheat are clearly on the downside due to fundamental reasons. Finally, Ukrainian Wheat is transported by ships and also from the Baltic Sea through Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. It is relief for many reasons like global hunger, stabilization of basic food prices etc. Emotion are playing a role here and market is on the optimistic side.
Wheat:Risky tradeYes initially I wanted to wait for the deeper dip but I am liking this level here so will put in a very small position for the correction. Note its a small position due to the riskiness of the trade. Put a buy stop slightly above. Literally catching daggers!
If it works its a 2.92R ....well its actually 20% of normal R!
WHEAT LONGS ACTIVE 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on WHEAT during those times of STAGFLATION on the long term premise i see wheat price going higher making a new ath. Commodity price should rise during those times of ,,incoming reccession,, .
What do you think ? Comment below..
ridethepig | Wheat for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig ZW1! Market Commentary 17.12.2020
For buyers the breakout creates the typical starting point, one we have seen many many times before. The fact it is happening on the monthly chart is very telling, this is threatening to impulsive explode to the topside via shortages on the supply side from lockdowns and contractions in globalisation.
Whatever may be the case on the climate side (and I am certainly no expert here) it has been one of the biggest crops on year for Russia. Fertile farming at its best... Tracking closely the 600 support, for a move towards 900 and 1350 ... watch out for any battle against this in the coming weeks as we enter into a commodity cycle.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
WHEAT SHORTS 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bearish price action on WHEAT as price should retrace back to fill the BULLISH GAP'S, we are in a bullish market strucutre on a HTF but right now i expect the retracement
What do you think? Comment below..
Wheat: extreme levels and it will continueIt doesn't matter its overbought, the price continues rising. The war can create one-time only events in the markets. We've seen the Russian Moscow Exchange closed for more than 1 week, USD/RUB skyrocketing and commodities such as Wheat going up completely out of control. We bought Wheat more than a year ago and we've added more volume as the uptrend continued, but seeing these events, we increased even more volume 2 weeks ago and we will continue to do so as this Ukraine-Russia crisis keeps escalating. In European countries, depends a lot on Wheat from Ukraine, and that was completely halted since the beginning of this war. Also, according to some food producers, they have stock for 2 months tops. They don't have an alternative solution for this. Food prices are going up, and if this war continues, many food produces in the EU will not be able to produce wheat-based food in normal figures. The situation is very critical at this point. Disruption could last half a year at minimum. We hold it and add more volume daily as long as this crisis continues.
WHEAT SHORTS 📉📉📉This week i expect bearish short move on WHEAT as price finished its impulsive movement on the bullish market strucutre, price made a lot of bullish gaps on its way to the current price meaning it will go lower soon to fill those gaps.
On a long-term basis i am still bullish and i will look for LONGS once retracement ends, this is kind of a risky counter-trend trade.
What do you think ?
WHEAT LONG-TERM LONGS 📉📉📉📈 I just wanted to share with you the reason behind the big bullish move on WHEAT, Ukraine is the country that exports the most wheat in the Europe so the price will rise because of the supply damage. Also as we are in a RISK OFF market sentiment investors tend to buy this asset as they are thinking about PROTECTION both on money and themselves. I think we will see wheat way above 1200-1300$ if the military conflict it will continue. From a technical perspective we are in a clear bullish market structure as price keeps printing higher highs and higher lows
What do you think ?
WHEAT, closed in Stop ProfitAfter 3 months we close our positions on wheat.
The price pulled back 25 points, leading our positions to hit the Stop Profit we had set at 769.80 to save profits, and it did.
Very good are those who have deducted part of the contracts on 50%, others on 38.2% letting the remaining part of the contracts run, very well indeed.
Now let's let the WHEAT go where it wants to go, we are far from any signal of the MCS, in February we will be in A1 of the annual and we will then evaluate any possible trade.