NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/7/2021 SessionContract - CME_MINI:MNQH2021
- High - 12678.25
- Low - 12646.25
Current Stats
- Gap: = N/A
- Session Open ATR: 195.00
- Volume: 33k
- Open Int: 228k
- Trend Grade: Bullish
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as a range)
- Long: 13337
- Short: 10650
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Whitehouse
ridethepig | Dollar FocusUntil this advanced coronavirus move was played, the flow had been relatively straight-forward, a smooth transition of the Titanic turning was more an ideal than reality. This corresponds to the process I have remarked on, that the US face a choice between a weaker USD or a weaker Equity market. The lack of restraint from Powell gives way to a mechanical swing towards the 74 handle.
So much for the strategic and theoretical manoeuvre when a full blown demand and supply shock storms into play. The practical value of the spike in USD makes things a lot easier to trade in US 2's 5's curve as you can see the recession is not a matter of if but when:
The Longer term flows here will carry us towards 50 over a 5 wave sequence, those who follow waves will know the technical target is now exposed:
Consumer Staples is showing signs of topping:
While Claims show signs of forming a floor:
Naturally it is all very well to aim for the 75 handle in DXY, driving buyers all the way back, but one must not go so far as to go overboard and intoxicate our strategic execution. As a whole, the defence is being carried out with insufficient knowledge as US virus numbers are only going to tick higher.
Now comes a breakthrough, Fed are funding the Whitehouse which logically comes from having a mandate to keep Equities higher. There is nowhere to hide, a really difficult environment to trade you will say. Excellent understanding of the macro flows and drivers in play are required.
Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the comments with your charts and questions below!
Does FNMA Have Enough juice To Keep Going?At this point FNMA might not be all speculation.
"This latest plan is to return the two back to private hands. But as part of the plan, there would be a Treasury backstop in place. But this hasn’t come without pushback. Senate Banking Committee Senator Sherrod Brown has issues with this plan. The concern stems from possible risks that could arise by giving up control." - PennyStocks.com, 2 Penny Stocks To Buy Or Avoid This Month: FNMA & FMCC
I think the government angle is something to pay attention to right now, personally. The closer a decision comes, the less "technical" and the more "headline" risk will play a factor.
Dollar short-term rebound may be around the cornerTalking points:
- Investors prefer not to take risks before the decision of the Bank of Japan, fix profits;
- Democrats and Republicans can not agree on financing the government, investors are slow to sell the dollar - because the consequences for the economy are not obvious. The Senate will vote on Monday;
- OPEC excites the market with a statement that production quotas may go beyond 2018.
The Japanese yen is heading to complete bullish advance before the meeting of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday as it is expected that the Japanese Central Bank will follow the example of its colleagues and announce the beginning of winding down its stimulus measures. The basis for such hopes was the recent unexpected move by the Central Bank to reduce the volume of JGB purchases in the market by 5%, which then returned to normal. This was in contrast to the previous, resolutely dovish rhetoric of the officials who pointed out the strong dependence of the recent economic recovery on soft monetary policy. Arguments of Haruhiko Kuroda sound very reasonable, given that core inflation has not reached half of the target level of 2% and economic growth is based on the export sector, which viability is strongly dependent on the ongoing efforts of the Central Bank to devalue the yen. The weak national currency is also a source of inflationary pressure, which is veiled in the final figures on inflation, which until recently has been showing positive dynamics.
Based on this reasoning, it is difficult to imagine what locomotive of economic recovery will be invented by the Japanese Central Bank in the absence of a large-scale QE. There is an excellent chance for short positions on the yen, as Kuroda is likely to cool down the fervor of investors, pointing out that the Central Bank's restraining policy is only a mirage at least several more quarters until the inflation of other leading economies will not acquire clear features.
The short-term target for the USDJPY level is 111.50-112.50 on Tuesday. Especially at stake is support at 110.00, which is very likely to withstand pressure.
The struggle of Democrats and Republicans left the government without money, but the dollar does not get involved in a political game, trying to avoid speculation. The last time the question of financing the government reached a critical point in 2013, during the presidency of Barack Obama. Then the state machine was idle for 16 days. It is important to understand that a fortnight of vacations did not affect the economy in any way. You can rely on a historical example and expect this time the same. Accordingly, investors dumped these news and are completely absorbed in the struggle of expectations for tightening the ECB and the Fed. Today, the Senate will vote on the issue of financing the government and considering the stay of the dollar at the bottom, as well as an empty economic calendar, we can expect at least some kind of market response to the vote. There is a perfect handle to risk and put on a short-term rise of the dollar, as the bears are still silent. In addition, Thursday is the day of the ECB and it is dumb to expect further growth of the euro, but rather the closure of positions due to the looming uncertainty regarding the decision.
The EURUSD target is a rebound to 1.20, where further medium-term goals for the pair will be determined.
The market had a completely unhappy reception of news from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The prices ignored the statement of Saudi Arabia's oil minister Al-Falih that there is a possibility of an extension of OPEC arrangements after 2018. Rather, the comments became a hint that the market will not soon get rid of overabundance due to the growth in production in the US. Prices have changed slightly, frozen after correction from the level of $ 70 per barrel. Obviously, short-term factors have been up and the market is waiting for EIA data before deciding on further direction.
Arthur Idiatulin