Williamoneil
Follow Through Day's and Market BottomsIt’s said that three out of every four stocks will follow the trend of the general market. It’s also known that the best opportunities come when a bear market ends, and a fresh new uptrend begins. The question is, how do you know when a new uptrend starts?
The Follow Through Day
A Follow Through Day was defined by William O’Neil as “when one of the major market averages moves up over 1.25% on heavier volume than the previous day.” A Follow Through Day usually occurs sometime between days 4 and 12 of an attempted rally.
When to Start Counting Rally Days
While the market is in a down trend, you are waiting for the first day the market closes positive to start counting your attempted rally days. The first positive day is day 1 of the rally attempt. On day 4 or later you are looking for the Follow Through Day to occur.
How Does a Follow Through Day Fail
Not every follow through day works, but no bull market has started without one. All days of the rally do not need to be up, some may be down, however a follow through day officially fails when the low of day 1 of the rally attempt is undercut. When this happens, it is time to start looking for a new day 1 and another follow through day.
It is not uncommon to have multiple attempted rallies and failed follow through days before the market begins a new uptrend. Let’s look at a few market bottoms from the past reviewing the concepts covered.
Nasdaq 1998 Bottom
SPX 1974 Bottom
🟨 Weekly Charts for ScreeningWhy look at weekly charts?
We look at weekly charts because it reduces volatility when scanning for stocks. This is especially important during bear markets when the stocks are more volatile.
What do we want to see?
Base depth no more than 30%
Close on the weekly bars near the highs
Closes are tight (about 1-1.5% of each other)
Peak closes on weekly
Big Volume on the Up Weeks
Lower Volume on the Down Weeks (compared to the Up weeks)
RS Line near highs while stock is still in base
Here are some of the stronger names I see today:
$HALO, $PODD, $PI
PBBank VCP aka cup & handle pattern. 20/Sept/22PBBank. Look like we have A VCP chart pattern. A chart pattern “refined” by famous Mark Minervini ( US 1997, 2021 investing championship winner) which got inspired by William J. O’Neil defined “Cup and handle” pattern..p/s or anything “chart pattern” you have “discovered/defined “? Making it “famous”?...Also the “cup & handle / VCP” pattern “closed” to 1 of variation of “triangle pattern” which is “ascending triangle “...with breakout. With rate hike all over the world. Banking sector might be “benefit” most. Price of PBBank could reach RM6.80 which is about 47.47% gain from current price level.
Potential Cup and Handle Breakout$HAL showing a weak cup and handle (low volume on the lows of the cup, and an upward wedging on the lows with regard to the handle). Would've preferred a shakeout on the handle, but instead, we are getting a rising wedge and low volume at the pivot point. Tightening volume at the handle is good, but once it reaches the breakout point, either the breakout is rejected or it will be another breakout without legs, as is the case with a number of names recently
EPS growth is also not looking good, quarterly EPS has not shown significant growth when compared to the quarterly EPS of the previous years. Q4 2021 showed signs of earnings acceleration, but that quickly reversed in Q1 of 2022 (which coincides with the pullback that formed the early part of the base).
Personal Opinion: Breakout is still possible, but I'm not looking to enter a position.
US Market Technicals Ahead (28 June – 2 July 2021)The second quarter is ending. Global stocks are on track to post their second strongest H1 gains since the turn of the century, but the second half looks harder to predict.
All eyes turn to the US employment report on Friday, with investors hopeful for signs of improvement in the labor market after two months of slower than expected jobs growth. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey should point to a strong pace of expansion in factory activity, not far from March's 37-year high and despite the ongoing supply constraints. President Joe Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure deal will continue to boost U.S. markets, but other concerns remain.
Elsewhere, OPEC+ meets on Thursday with expectation to offer guidance into the coalition's production plan. Energy traders are anticipating another production increase as the demand outlook continues to recover.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index $SPX rallies to all time high, posting a weekly gain of +3.17% (+131.8 points), closing at 4,285 level. It is important to remain cautious of last week's rally as volume displayed was lacking, and seasonality is still in play. End of quarter 'window dressing' by portfolio managers could be a reason for the 'mark-up'.
$SPX have now rebounded off the breach of its 20D and 50DMA (key levels highlighted last week), remaining within the trend channel established since early November 2020. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,135 level; a pivot low confluence with trendline support break.
Jobs report
The June nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show that the economy added 675,000 new jobs, pushing the unemployment rate down to 5.7% from 5.8%.
With concerns over rising inflation and the strength of the recovery to the fore of investors’ minds, markets will also be looking at other labor market statistics, including wage growth and labor force participation.
Last week Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to encouraging a "broad and inclusive" recovery in the labor market, adding that there is still a long way to go, and that support is still needed.
Economic data
Ahead of Friday’s jobs report, markets will get updates on pending home sales, ADP private sector payrolls, jobless claims and ISM manufacturing activity.
The ISM data is likely to underline strains on the supply chain that are pushing up costs, boosting the chances that inflation will remain at higher levels for longer.
OPEC+ meeting
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+ will hold a series of meeting in the coming week to review the situation in the global oil market ahead of an official meeting on Thursday.
Thursday’s meeting is expected to result in another boost in output as the demand outlook continues to recover.
Oil prices climbed to their highest since October 2018 on Friday, putting both benchmarks up for a fifth week in a row.
MICRO FOCUS INTERNATIONAL PLC SPON ADRWe are testing the William O´neils CANSLIM METHOD.
We have tested some stocks sugetions Found in the MARKETSMITH stock suscription.
Test have been made with small amounts.
This Is one of the best performing stocks of 2019.
we are expecting it to be on the top market leaders.
EPS RATING 99
Group RS A
RS RATING A
C.R, 99
RS 95
this stock has made a strong flat CUP AND A HANDLE
from 22 to 27..
I will set up a stop buying order at a price of 180.66 wating for a price break.