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Wisemen

BTC Expanding Triangle Whipsaw Pattern (Elliott Wave)The last few weeks on BTC have formed a huge whipsaw pattern, constantly faking out in each direction. This is common for an expanding triangle pattern, and this current triangle also has very good time relations (and lack of fibonacci price relations). Wave-e also broke beyond the a-c trendline as is standard for expanding triangles. Last week I said that we'd get one final run up to the highs and BTC would double top while some alts made new all time highs. This is exactly what has happened, and based on this expanding pattern, as well as the longer-term chart that I published in December, I believe the top is in for the rest of the year. The next move down should be extremely large and violent, probably ending somewhere around $30k towards the middle of this year. The b-wave recovery after that will likely be slow and followed by another c-wave before we finally end this major correction sometime in 2026.
Short
by Intuit
1
ETH Zigzag Short Setup (Elliott Wave)ETH has created a perfect zigzag pattern, with a triangle for wave-B. Since wave-B is a limiting contracting triangle, wave-C should relate to wave-a of B by 100% in price, and end around the apex of the triangle timewise. Both of these requirements have been perfectly fulfilled, and the standard time target of (a+b)/2=c is also satisfied. On top of this wave pattern, we also have the first wiseman forming on the 4hr, as well as momentum divergences on multiple shorter-term charts. At the higher timeframes, ETH and BTC have both hit long-term fibonacci targets, time targets, monthly/weekly/daily wisemen, and momentum divergences. All of these long-term and short-term signals and wave patterns are indicating a potential long-term top, and at the least a significant pull back to new lows. The 4hr wisemen on ETH gives us a good way to minimize our risk on this trade by putting our stops at today's highs. From here, we should quickly retrace all of wave-C faster than it was formed to get confirmation that the zigzag is over. After we have confirmation, we can be very confident that we are heading to new lows and will probably end this wave somewhere around $3,090 to $2,770
Short
by Intuit
1
TLRY Long-term Bottom SignalsTLRY has created several long-term bottom signals including the first wiseman on the monthly and weekly charts. This combined with momentum divergences and the 161.8% (a+b) time relation all indicate a potential long-term reversal is starting now. This also fits with my bearish stock market forecast because for the last couple of years there's been an inverse correlation between the index and cannabis stocks. I also believe we could see an old switcheroo here, cannabis stocks dumped and crypto pumped post-election in the short-term, now we could see the opposite in the long-term where we see a long-term cannabis bull market and a long-term crypto bear market. There's a high probability Trump does not create a strategic bitcoin reserve in the first 100 days, on Polymarket the odds are >70% that this does not happen. It's also very likely most state-level bills will fail initially. While some reserves could eventually happen it will likely be in 1-2 years when prices are much lower and the hype has died down. Meanwhile, the HHS has already recommended and the DEA has already begun the process of rescheduling cannabis to Schedule 3 several months ago, and Chris Christie has said Trump will completely deschedule cannabis under his administration, ultimately making it fully legalized. In my opinion, everyone is underpricing this likely future, while simultaneously overpricing the future where Trump actually kept his promises about crypto in the first 100 days. I do not think Cannabis stocks will ever be this undervalued again, especially after legalization happens, so now is probably the best time to be accumulating these stocks for the long-term while they're super undervalued.
NASDAQ:TLRYLong
by Intuit
3
BTC Long-Term Top Signals, Potentially Headed to $32k in 2026Bitcoin is currently exhibiting several long-term top signals, some of which stretch all the way back to 2019. Those include: Wave-D = (C+B)/2 in Time Wave-D = 0.618(B) in Price Waves a, b, c, f, and g are all time-similar forming a perfect diametric First Wiseman signals on Weekly, Monthly charts All three wisemen on Daily charts HUGE long-term momentum divergences on all long-term charts Manic market sentiment following Trump's promises and $100k prices (which he may not keep) I believe a deep, long-term bear market is highly likely from this point. It also appears that the stock market could be falling into a bear market as well. The invalidation for this forecast will be for BTC to make new all time highs. If we can reverse the wisemen signals and long-term time/price targets that have formed that would be extremely bullish, but at the moment that is seeming less and less likely. For now the probabilities are favoring major downside in crypto, stocks, and real estate. There's also other possible targets. While $32k in 2 years is close to the worst case scenario, a drop lasting only a few months and forming a smaller x-wave or something else is also possible. It will depend ultimately how this develops. To confirm a long-term bear market we should hit around $62k by end of Q1. If it takes longer than that, it's possible the bear market won't be as big. Right now, the important thing is that the market is at a clear fork in the road. If it can't push new all time highs then the signals clearly say that we are headed down from here based on the momentum, price action, sentiment and wave counts. How far down exactly can be determined in the future when there's more information.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Intuit
3
BTC At Major Resistance, Regulatory Headwinds RemainSeems like we are hitting a strong bearish divergence here. Breaking down from this triangle would likely mean we go to at least 20-25k, and breaking down from that support could mean we go under $16k, and likely head towards $10k. Still seems probable that Microstrategy/Saylor are forced out of at least most of their position, more so than they already have been (via dilutive equity sales). Regulatory and systemic headwinds from the US are still weighing on the market as well, and we could see more attacks on the industry coming from the SEC, CFTC, etc. Coinbase recently received a wells notice, which means they are likely going to be sued by the SEC in the near future. This could continue to put a major damper on new money flowing in from the US.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Intuit
2
TRX Long-Term Triangle Possibly Ending NowBased on the time target for wave-E, as well as some longer term time targets, it is starting to seem more and more likely that the low is in and TRX is readying to break out to the upside. Confirmation will come when we actually break the upside of the triangle, when we have that confirmation we can be more confident that this is going to move towards all time highs early next year. For now, probabilities seem to be favoring a long-term bottom formed for cryptocurrency as long as December's low continues to hold. If we see a break of December's low then I would suspect we see more downside across the crypto markets, probably at least another -20%. At this point it is becoming increasingly dangerous to be short any major crypto unless we can get a clear break of December's lows. Unless that happens, I think the best move here is to be slightly long with tight stops under December's low, or flat until we get a better long confirmation.
KRAKEN:TRXUSDLong
by Intuit
2