BTC possible 5th wave BTC possible massive Wolfe wave is forming on a weekly timeframe. The 5th wave is aiming at 200EMA
There came gray stretches of volcanic plains,
Bare, lone and treeless, then a bleak lone hill
Like to the dolorous hill that Dobell saw.
Around were heaps of ruins piled between
The Burn o’ Sorrow and the Water o’ Care;
And from the stillness of the down-crushed walls
One pillar rose up dark against the moon.
There was a nameless Presence everywhere;
In the gray soil there was a purple stain,
And the gray reticent rocks were dyed with blood—
Blood of a vast unknown Calamity.
It was the mark of some ancestral grief—
Grief that began before the ancient Flood.
Wolfe Wave
BTCUSD expected Path (bigger picture)Recently I was following BTCUSD through its consolidation up until break of structure last Friday 6/10. That series was a local analysis/predictive tool using continuous-time markov chain (CTMC). This is a bigger picture analysis using charting techniques centered around supply/demand trendlines and a statistical method I developed in R studio that measures proportional range w.r.t. a displacement control chart (based on price action relative to the 9 and 20 day moving averages (as well as the relationship between those moving averages)).
There is a post from someone I follow that has what I think is the most accurate Elliot Wave coverage of BTCs count, which has some levels that align in the neighborhood what I am getting using this method. Here is a link to that post (@Nailed_it, hope you don't mind if I link this idea - if so lmk and I'll obliterate my post):
If you want the details follow that ^
Below is more of a general idea for upcoming path to expect using my method:
Black 2pt line is most likely path from here (dashed 1pt black line is alternative) - i.e. bounce to low 30ks (point target 31616.3) to test recent channel {the decision at low 30ks will differentiate which path is taken}:
- If rejected in low 30ks, which is higher probability, expect more downside to around 12-17k (point target 14278). This should mark the end of the corrective wave. From there my initial target to spark a rally is 41k by October 2022
- If continues after testing low 30ks, flip the expectation above (i.e. 41k first near term, then drop to ~14278k to complete the correction by October)
*Max downside risk I see is 6396, but notice I included 0 in this analysis chart (that's right, don't plan on it but don't count it out either hah)
**Upside point target, longer term, is 84799. This probably wouldn't be realized until 2023? We're not there yet but I'll update once I see which (if either) of these 2 paths play out... 2 roads diverged in a yellow wood, and BTC did what it wanted to ("BTC stay on the path"... "No way I'm not scared of the SPYDER, I control the SPYDER").
The images posted in the chart are interesting. Not going to go into details but as I mentioned above I essentially use average daily price w.r.t. control charts to obtain estimated ranges. The trajectories are generally pretty stochastic/random, but sometimes interesting patterns unfold at the end of price cycles that give insight into breakouts and breakdowns.. for BTC, back in July 2021 an Expanding Triangle emerged on the proportional range chart and then it took off to 60k. Currently, as of this morning, an Expanding Triangle just completed on BTCs proportional range chart... just something to think about, that's all I am saying. I am not saying it will breakout today because of this lol... but the setup for such a breakout is in the works (i.e. corrective cycle nearing the end).
Best to All
Wolfe Wave - one more down before upI'm looking at a possible Wolfe Wave pattern. I have entered a short position at $31.500 with a target of mid 27k levels.
If this indeed follows the Wolfe Wave, I'm looking to buy below 27-25k levels for a move up to 35-37k.
For educational purposes. Always do your own research.
Bitcoin, Determined to Test Low $20Ks | Digital Surf TradingAfter finishing a time-killing move within its recent Expanded Flat formation, Bitcoin has now entered what seems to be an Extended Diagonal/Wedge/Wyckoff/Wolfe Wave pattern down to the lows between $21K-$25K.
The internal Wolfe Wave in the pending Wave 5 is not shown on this chart however waves have confirmed that this is already in motion (the DSTC will deliver updates on this internal action).
The pending fractal will not allow for new entries to remain profitable for too much time as the waves are due to overlap in volatile fashion. For traders who are determined to jump in on the waves, its best to get in and get out relatively quick. An even better idea would be to use the near real-time analysis which I'll be sharing within the DSTC.
As for macro moves, this should be the main takeaway, "Bitcoin has not bottomed out until it reaches the levels of $21-$25K.
Lastly, Wyckoff and Wolfe Waves are both knockoffs as the great Ralph Nelson Elliott first outlined this concept :)
Howl @ The MoonI posted a bullish idea for SPY (linked) where I did not go into detail about the wolfe wave - I am seeing major confluence with EWT, wolfe wave projection, bigger picture downtrend resistance, target via an indicator I love called "ADX Breakout", and time series forecast for both SPY and QQQ . There happens to be a full moon (a SuperMoon actually) on Tuesday Morning, June 14th, so if a Wolfe Wave gets us to intial target around that time that would be interesting. I'm not going to use any moon phase analysis here, but there is something about the moon that does in fact influence investor sentiment, albeit indirectly, though I am not expert on that subject.
This post zooms in on the Bullish Wolfe Wave and is intended for both price action projection near term and education purposes (I don't see many posts covering wolfe waves though they can be $$$ in making seemingly contrarian calls, such as this). In my counts I am using <1,...,5> for the Wolfe Wave and conventional EWC (Elliot Wave count) based on the degree.
Overview of Wolfe Wave (WW) :
Occurance
- An uptrend channel for a bearish Wolfe Wave
- A downtrend channel for a bullish WolfeWave
-Horizontal channels for consolidating price periods
Rules
Wave 3 and wave 4 remained in the channel created by waves 1 and 2.
Wave 1 and Wave 2 are symmetrical with waves 3 and 4.
Wave 5 goes above the trendline created by wave 1 and wave 3 for a bearish pattern.
Wave 5 goes below the trendline created by wave 1 and wave 3 for a bullish pattern.
Regular timings between waves. It means that the time taken to complete one cycle for the waves 1-3-5 is equal.
We can see in my chart that QQQ fits the bill here. There is a signal use to confirm wave <5> called "Wolfe Waves Signals " (Props to @NXT2017 for creating this wizard signal). I like it because it doesn't give frequent signals so when it occurs it is generally the real deal if the chart setup fits the bill.
Confluence
- EW intermediate count w(4) = WW <5>; projected w(5) aligns with the <1-4> projection at the expected time such that there is perfect symmetry with time between waves (see date ranges on chart). This sets up for an initial target of 317.90 by 6/13/2022
- EW primary count circle 3 aligns with the WW EPA @ ETA - EPA is the estimated price arrival, ETA is estimated time arrival and is established as the point in time where the WW support and resistance lines intersect. The level that these intersect is an equilibrium point where supply = demand; notice that E (expected <5>), w(4), and circle 2 all will occur right around this equilibrium level if we do in fact see a bounce from here and this plays out. This confluence gives us a Target of 341 by 6/29/2022 , and this is also the level of an "open long" target using ADX Breakout (not included here, there is already a lot going on didn't want to crowd the chart; also this target is at the 4H time frame, which actually makes sense with the time to target here). My time series ARIMA(0,1,0), p=0.23, upper 80%-95% PI for June 13 is 319.69 - 324.88 so the 317.90 initial target is reasonable, statistically. My upper 80-95% for June 27 is 334.90 - 348.14, so target of 341 is plausible as well.
- The downtrend line through the 11/21/2021 high and the 3/29/2021 high is the red line visible in this chart... so for those that have doubts about WW or EWT you can think of this projection as merely a test of downtrend resistance, which is very plausible considering how much time we have spent down in the gutter attempting to end this corrective wave.
The yellow path is illustrative, expecting an impulse from apprx. yesterday's low (i.e. <5> & (4) & circle 2 on chart) toward the initial target (i.e. (5) & <1-4> resistance). From there we will see an intermediate ABC corrective wave that will also serve the purpose of re-testing the WW upper channel to ensure old resistance has become support. After that I just drew a straight trajectory to the target at 341 (i.e. circle 3 & EPA @ ETA), however, this will either be a diagonal or an impulse - I'll update with expected levels is this plays out to intermediate (C).
Sincerely,
Not Jacob Black
share in a triangle and if break trendline will be bearishkeep an eye on pink the trend line break and daily ema200
share is going up in a triangle which is playing as WW pattern role
if trendline break ,target is 85
Aussie is making inv. H&S to get bullishcompleting a wolfe wave on 4h time frame will make the pair going downside to complete another shoulder of an inverse head and shoulder
then upon breaking of the neck of this inv. H&S ,pair will move upward toward 0.74
for bigger view of this pair please check below
any comments please share
tnx
Aussie is waiting for trendline break to get bullisha new wolfe wave completed on daily timeframe and Aussie is waiting for trendline break to get bullish
in lower time frame we see an inverse head and shoulder which fortified our analysis
this bull move is aligned with DXY bearish tone
so we think that pair will move upward toward 0.74 which are place of kijensens of ichimikou
after this bullish move pair will go down for its monthly kijensen of ichimikou
please see the monthly chart with ichimikou turned on ,then you see a very nice OA pattern for kijensen and tenkensen indicating that final destination of pair is 0.6463 after this upcoming bullish move
please share your comments
tnx
two scenarios for the coin is possible both ends up in 0.28two scenarios depicted on the chart benefiting from Ichimikou kijensen and wolfe wave pattern and MACD divergence ,all of which explained on the chart
now the coin will make another low and on making this low
1- we will expect to get the coin bullish .this bullish move is aligned with wolfe wave pattern and probably with MACD divergence and then the coin will move toward 0.28 as ichi kijensen indicated (pink line scenario)
2- the coin will continue its bearish move as ichimikou kijensen already indicated towards 0.28(blue scenario)
any comments please share
tnx
EXY is bullish toward 109.7Euro index is on a major trend line which acts as support for this index
we see a divergence on MACD which make us more determined for this bullish analysis
target of index is 109.7 for which index will touch another pink major trenline
as we analyzed previously, DXY is beaish for a while and EXY is bullish now according to this analysis ,so we will have better understanding of how EURUSD will move
any comments please share
tnx
pair completed a WW to reach 130 before its bearish continuationupon completing a wolfe wave (WW) and with ichimikou signal and support of EMA 200 and divergence of MACD , we will see an upward move toward 130 before pair bear continuation which is aligned with DXY
this analysis is on 4H time frame
for bigger view of this pair move ,please see below
any comments please share
tnx