Wolfe Wave
Its More Straight-Forward Than You ThinkThis is an Update to my previous SPY idea - same target/time to target, just more simplified. After the last 2 weeks there is a lot of bearish sentiment but its really just finding support at wave 4 of a leading diagonal.
The initial target is 408 in the next week or 2, and then goal target is 425-432 by late March-Early April.
The symmetry in the waves indicates this is a leading diagonal (or bearish wolfe wave that is about to complete the final wave). Either way its still bullish near-term. After 425-432 there will be significant downside risk, but for now expect a nice rally through March.
We are in the bounce zone, there is still risk to 388-391 early this week, but if any of the following occur we won't see the 388-391:
- retest and hold 393
- close above 397.92
- Intraday breach of 401.42 (above 401.42 it will turn into explosive upside)
wti updateonce again head and shoulder setup came to my mind and drew new neckline .
we are waiting for price and know how it will treat with neckline (red line) and also its above trend line as depicted on the chart with a purple rectangle .
upon breaking or not we will have different bearish or bullish scenario
please share your comments and or anything about this analysis .
please see my previous bullish and bearish analysis :
dji updateOn February 7, traders focused on Fed Chair Powell’s comments on the monetary policy at The Economic Club of Washington.
Powell noted that the disinflationary process had begun, but there was a long way to go before Fed’s inflation target would be reached. Importantly, Powell stated that Fed would not change its 2% inflation target, which remained the global standard.
According to Powell, the road to the 2% inflation will be bumpy. The recent job market data was much stronger than expected, and the Fed must continue to raise rates to reach a sufficiently restrictive level. Powell also noted that he expected significant progress in the fight against inflation.
Speaking about the potential for a rate cut in 2023, Powell said that Fed’s decisions would depend on economic data. The Fed continues to reduce the size of the balance sheet and has no target for this reduction. As in the case of interest rates, the decision to stop the reduction of the size of Fed’s balance sheet would be data-dependent.
previous analysis :
two scenario both ends @ 25$ ,believe it or notplease see chart on daily time frame
we may have seen a head and shoulder pattern is underway to be completing or we may face with fifth wave of an impulsive wave to be complete.
green line breaking will specify which scenario will happen
if green line breaks stock will rise to 500-600 $ and then go to 25$
if green line holds ,head and shoulder completed and stock go to 25$
a wolfe wave is also seen between head-and-shoulder-like pattern which is indicating upward move is more probable.
targets of upward move is 123-161% inverse Fibonacci retracement of wave (iii)-(iv)
please share your comments
a nice repetition of a pattern made earlier for target of 0.23$a nice repetition is underway as in 2022 a pattern made as depicted on the chart which is now happening in the same way with target @0.23$
the underlying behavior of such pattern is how kijensen and tenkesen of ichimokou is arranging when candles are going toward them.
another reason for correctness of this pattern is a wolfe wave pattern made earlier and its target is 0.23
please share your comments if you like this
please see my previous analysis as below: