The W1DOW maker is looming. BEAR MARKET watch.
Look at that August Monthly hammer candle after the Yen carry trade wobble.
The Global Dow jones index is at an all time new high
This rise is BASED on a wall of #FIAT capital that has been clicked and borrowed into existence.
And speculation of an AI revolution
But Money creation is not wealth creation.
An general AI will be deflationary, as more decisions outsourced from Humans to the "mainframe" :0
Most of my idea's I have shared on assets have been to the upside even after bearish down moves. Stocks, Gold & Crypto. Right Back in 2020 I shared a thesis of a Roaring 20's echo meltup and here we are melting up ...
Yet the party must end sometime
so we watch and have one foot in and foot out from this point.
Secular Bull markets have a lifespan of 15-18 years ...
and this one has required multiple rounds of QE (liquidity injections) to achieve this run.
So we will are looking for #BTC hit $100k the Russell 2000 to make new high's, before setting the stage for a bear market that could be quite extraordinary.
Worldmarkets
Massive US Growth Will Decouple Many Global MarketsPlease watch this video to learn my viewpoint on where real opportunities exist for traders.
For many months, I've suggested that the US markets could double or triple over the next 5 to 7+ years. Some people laugh at my expectations, but others seem to "get it."
In this video, I try to explain why my expectations are valid and why I believe the "crash-dummies" will continue to trap traders into believing each new high reached is a fantastic selling opportunity.
Please watch this video and listen to what I'm trying to share. I don't see the markets as a risk related to a massive financial or global crisis (although it could happen).
I see the markets as shifting/changing related to a post-COVID coupling/decoupling event - very similar to what happened, briefly, in the 1990s.
A decoupling event would shift global economics to a point where global assets move away from determined risk factors and towards safety/security. That means the US stock market, as long as the US Dollar & US economy stays relatively strong, would be the most logical in-demand asset for the next 2~5+ years.
It is straightforward when you consider what is happening.
I hope this helps you understand where opportunities exist and how important it is to rethink what is unfolding right now.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
75: China Export Analysis - Fundamental and Technical OverviewThe European Union (EU) and the United States have increased scrutiny and imposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports, particularly electric vehicles and strategic materials like gallium and germanium. These measures are designed to protect domestic industries from what are perceived as unfair trade practices and subsidies by the Chinese government.
Additionally, the EU's new Critical Raw Material Act and battery regulations aim to reduce dependency on Chinese imports and secure supply chains for critical technologies. These regulatory changes have led to a noticeable decline in Chinese exports to the EU.
In response, China has imposed export restrictions on key materials, further straining trade relations. These geopolitical tensions and trade barriers have significantly impacted China's export figures.
Currently, China's export trend is showing a downward trajectory. The export figures have struggled to reach the $350 billion mark and are at risk of dropping significantly lower, potentially towards the $140 billion level.
Chart Overview:
Trend Line: A clear downtrend is visible on the chart, with lower highs and lower lows indicating sustained pressure.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance: The $350 billion level is the upcoming resistance. That has not yet been reached.
Support: Immediate support is observed around $250 billion. A break below this level could accelerate the downward move towards $140 billion.
Will We Reach $350 Billion or Go Lower?
Given the current economic and geopolitical landscape, it seems still likely that China will reach the $350 billion export mark in the near term because there has not been a really corrective wave in the chart. But the downward pressure from increased tariffs, export restrictions, and the EU's push for supply chain independence are significant hurdles. If these conditions persist, a further decline is a plausible scenario.
FTSE 100 Can 2.5X versus the GBP In Dollar terms.
We have analysed the FTSE100 #UKX the GBPUSD and UK Housing on a big time frame scale before.
Here we have the FTSE 100 and the UK companies which have pricing power
versus #Sterling which we know is heading to sub $1
As we have expectations of the #GBPUSD to target 0.71 in a head and shoulders target close to a 50% drop from current levels!
British citizens are living in a inflationary nightmare.
A potential lifeboat is investing their way out.
NOT SAVING .. as saving in a ever worthless #Pound is only compounding your loss of purchasing power.
Borsa Italiana tp $48KA return move to previous high's
is what the inverse head 7 shoulders is forecasting.
Which is likely to happen in the next couple years.
30 years to get back to those levels!
An entire generation!
It's why deep capital markets , technology, having the reserve currency $, some financial doping, an entrepreneurial workforce, and degen investor base all combined to push the US market to dizzying heights.
Accumulation zone📊Analysis by AhmadArz:
Pay more attention to the pivot points because it is an accumulation zone.
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Has the Twilight Zone with the World Markets ended? -DOWN we go!If you've just been a position (swint trader) with shares this year.
You'll know it's been bvery difficult and challening.
We've seen world markets move in a sideways motion which I like to call the Twilight Zone.
FTSE 100 - UK-
DAX 30 - Germany
CAC 40 - France
ASX 200 - Australia
It breaks down, it goes back up into the range.
It breaks up and it goes back down into the range.
The only semblance of hope right now is that the price has broken BELOW the range and has remained below the 200MA Blue LIne.
This means, the markets are more likely to be and stay in the downtrend for the next couple of weeks and months.
And we might need to look to short (sell) more than we go long and buy.
The overall trend is down right now, but for how long?
We as traders can only react and anticipate based on what we see in front of our eyes.
It's all we can do really with strict money management principles to preserve and protect.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of September 29, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Based on this week's trading action, the Inner Index Dip 4212 seems to be experiencing a bias to a continued downward side pattern. The Mean Sup 4246 is playing a crucial role in holding the price. But, there's a chance that the market could rebound to Mean Res 4340 and even extend to Mean Res 4400 on the upside potential.
MSCI World Index Fund WCA - Possible INV H&SIndex: MSCI World Index Fund
Introduction:
Hello everyone! Today, we are looking at the MSCI World Index Fund to gain a broader perspective on the global equity market environment. Based on our current analysis, we can see the formation of a classic technical pattern, signaling a potential reversal from the preceding downtrend.
Analysis:
Over the past 371 days, the index has seemingly been forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern, a well-known reversal pattern suggesting a change from a downtrend to an uptrend. The horizontal neckline of this pattern lies at 120$. While the symmetry between the shoulders isn't perfect, it's worth noting that when the right shoulder is slightly higher than the left one, this is often seen as a bullish sign.
Furthermore, the right shoulder has formed distinctly above the 200 EMA, adding weight to the potential bullish reversal. Currently, the price appears to have broken out above the neckline, paving the way for a calculation of a possible price target upon the successful closing of the weekly candle. However, it's crucial to remember that the weekly candle must close above the neckline; otherwise, we could be dealing with a premature breakout.
Assuming a valid breakout, our calculated price target would be 142, equating to a potential price increase of approximately 18.5%. This provides a favorable opportunity to explore long setups in general.
Conclusion:
The MSCI World Index Fund's technical analysis points to a potentially bullish reversal. Should the current breakout confirm, the ensuing uptrend could present opportunities for investors looking for long positions.
As always, remember to conduct your own due diligence and implement appropriate risk management strategies when investing.
Thank you for tuning into this analysis. Please like, share, and follow for more insights into the market. Happy trading!
Best regards,
Karim Subhieh
GOLD 12/5: Keep watching SELL to the price area around 2000Gold prices remained pressured on Thursday for the second straight day despite a weaker US economy. The reason may be related to the market rushing into the US Dollar amid concerns about the expiration of the US debt ceiling and the collapse of the banking system.
The news becomes even more important and negatively impacts risk appetite as the US Treasury has signaled the possibility that the Federal Government could default on its debt as soon as June 1 unless the debt ceiling is raised.
Gold prices confirmed the pennant break on Thursday, indicating a bearish bias in the metal. The metal's downtrend break also justifies the upbeat signals from the Moving Averages Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator, as well as the steady Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, is set at 14. TVC:GOLD
SELL GOLD zone 2020 - 2023
Stoploss: 2027
Take profit 1: 2015
Take profit 2: 2010
Take profit 3: 2005
BUY GOLD zone 2005 - 2000
Stoploss: 1995
Take profit 1: 2015
Take profit 2: 2030
Take profit 3: 2040
BTC DOMINION COULD BE ON SELL NEXT BTC DOMINION OPTION
Hello traders this market could be facing selling part to Bull alt market next
According to wave counting, wave 1 and 2 is done and now Wave 3 and 4 is the following plans if it is going to work out for me, I think we are in a complex correction for the next wave. If we look at the corrections A and B is done, Wave C is forming an ending diagonal ( WEDGE.
Let us wait till it is complete and see if the bearish can continue
Has the news of the Queen affected the Pound? GBP/USD It was announced today that the Queen has passed away today after a 70 year reign. We look at whether this has affected the pound. For GBP/USD the market has not been affected as significantly as traders may have thought, considering the overall negative market sentiment.
The pound dollar continues to consolidate within the range indicated with the daily RSI beaten down into oversold territory.
Will there be breakouts in the coming days?
BTC BULLISH BIASBTC/USDT
Day trading, short term traders should be very careful to go long, because of the bearish flag pattern setting up. DOO we are expecting a correction to complete WAVE 5 according to ELLIOT WAVES count. Investors can start buying, but day traders should be careful. Wait to buy at the support or sell at the resistance, because the market is ranging
(Tutorial) World Markets & their affect on Indian Stock Market!Hello Traders/Investors,
Lets learn World Stock Markets and How it affect us in India on Daily/Weekly and even on long-term basis.
Note: this topic is specifically for Traders (specially Day traders) and also Investors might find it interesting read.
- US is called mother market and we're (i.e. Indian stock market) child market.
- US market gives a queue on how world and our market would perform based on it.
- Sectors like Banks (Dow Jones Bank index) n Tech/IT (NASDAQ) work pretty hand in hand with rest of world in terms of giving us a idea of direction towards which sector can have chances of moving by how much %age today.
- - SGX Nifty , its a Nifty's Future contract which is traded in Singapore Exchange and gives a good idea on start of our markets. SGX Nifty timings : 6.30 AM to 11.30 PM
- Asian markets specially South Korea, Hang Seng n Japan market we should watch carefully in morning to track the direction of markets. We belong to pretty much similar basket.
- European Markets, CAC, DAX and FTSE we should get a median of these 3 exchanges to know how much %age they're moving. Just an observation here, our Indian markets usually stay closer to DAX movement.
- Emerging markets (short form : EMs) : Emerging markets generally do not have as highly developed market and regulatory institutions as those found in developed nations. Market efficiency and strict standards in accounting and securities regulation are generally not on par with advanced economies (such as those of the United States, Europe, and Japan).
- Some of the most rapidly emerging countries include Brazil, Turkey, Russia, India, and China. Also some oil rich nations are also part of this list.
- To get a holistic picture of world markets.. get a queue from yesterday's closing of world markets specially US alongwith US futures which are very important.
- Then, in mornings look at Asian Markets n SGX Nifty to understand where our markets might open. Around afternoon when European markets open you get an idea where our Indian market might stabilise n close. Also, we can look at European futures to get idea on where Euro markets might open.
- Lastly macro economic data like Commodity prices specially Crude oil , USD INR n Dollar Index give a clarity on the markets. Higher Dollar n lower Rupee would cause panic in stock markets usually. Similarly, higher crude oil prices indirectly reduces countries foreign reserves n also affect business due to rising transport costs causing more expenses n less income.
- Cryptos movements can also affect markets now days, a big downmove on cryptos n hit many stop losses n cause for margin calls n hence companies might have to liquidate other assets of individuals like stocks etc. go get back their money.
- Honest mentions: Sometimes some macros are in news, then in those days stock markets start mimicking their charts.. it can b currency pair USDINR , US 10yrd BOND yield, Crude OIL sudden surge or drop in prices and most recently, NIFTY is pretty closely mimicking the US30 futures chart trend on day trades.
- My personal hack: I do all my Technical Analysis on these charts n not just on NIFTY and BANKNIFTY etc. I draw all the Supply n Demand zones, Channels, Trendlines etc. to get queues from them to implement it on my trading in Intraday in India. Usually it works like a charm!
World major stock markets timings in IST (i.e. Indian Standard Timings) :
North America Stock Exchange Timings:
Country Stock Exchange Opening Time (Indian Timing) Closing Time (Indian Timing)
US NASDAQ 7 : 00 PM 1 : 30 AM
US NYSE 7 : 00 PM 1 : 30 AM
Canada TMX Group 8:00 PM 2:30 AM
European Stock Exchange Timings:
Country Stock Exchange Opening Time (Indian Timing) Closing Time (Indian Timing)
UK London Stock Exchange 1 : 30 PM 10 : 00 PM
European Union Euronext 12:30 PM 9:00 PM
Germany Deutsche Borse 12:30 PM 2:30 AM
Switzerland SIX Swiss Exchange 1:30 PM 10:00 PM
Spain BME Spanish Exchange 1:30 PM 10:00 PM
Asia-Pacific Stock Exchange Timings
Country Stock Exchange Opening Time (Indian Timing) Closing Time (Indian Timing)
Australia Australian Security Exchange 5:30 AM 11:30 AM
Japan Japan Exchange Group 5:30 AM 11:30 AM
Hong Kong Hong Kong Stock Exchange 6:45 AM 1:30 PM
China Shanghai Stock Exchange 7:00 AM 12:30 PM
China Shenzhen Stock Exchange 7:00 AM 12:30 PM
Taiwan Taiwan Stock Exchange 6:30 AM 11:00 AM
South Korea KRX Korean Exchange 5:30 AM 11:30 AM
India NSE and BSE 9:15 AM 3:30 PM
You can google n find most of Live market details on many websites, I usually enjoy Investing .com for their simple UI and charts.
Please take all positions at your own risks and these are my personal views on analyzing markets. I'm not responsible for any losses incurred by you!
Regards,
Anshul
Terra (LUNA) eyes top position in staked value Terra (LUNA) eyes top position in staked value after overtaking Ethereum, Solana still ahead.
Terra ecosystem’s native coin LUNA is ranked the second in staked value with approximately $31.42 billion. Leading the list is Solana with approximately $31.55 billion according to data provided by Staking rewards. Ethereum has dropped to the third position after holding the top position for a long time. The total staked value in Ethereum is estimated at $26 billion.
Numbers don’t lie. Ethereum killers are winning from a number of perspectives. The ETH ecosystem needs to support thousands of transactions per second in order to eliminate the high cost and low throughput currently choking its scalability.
Thanks to the Beacon chain, which introduced staking in the Ethereum ecosystem, there is hope for the smart contract veteran to come back in the future. Mind you, according to data provided by etherscan on a staking contract, there is 10,035,650.000069000000000069 Ether in balance, valued at approximately $26 billion.
What was once a rumor is now the reality in the crypto industry. Terra (LUNA) is headed for the top seat and is likely to emerge as the winner.
The Terra ecosystem offers its users a comprehensive and firm way of earning passively through staking. The fast-growing LUNA market has been attributed to the genius way of balancing its pack of stablecoins through supply and demand. Additionally, it costs relatively less to send value on the Terra blockchain than on the Ethereum ecosystem.
The smart contract market is blazing hot with projects that desire to lead in users’ and developers’ growth. Of note, the Cardano (ADA) ecosystem is also in the race and has approximately $18.6 billion in staked value.
AVAX, DOT, and BNB follow closely with $15 billion, $11 billion, and $6 billion in staked value respectively.
Bitcoin Surges 9% Bitcoin Surges 9% Following Treasury Department Leak
On Tuesday evening a statement from US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen intended for release on Wednesday was leaked regarding President Biden’s executive order on Bitcoin and ”cryptocurrency”.
Immediately following the release on the Treasury’s website the statement was removed, but circulated Bitcoin Twitter at a rapid pace as Bitcoin has pumped over 9% to $42,400 as of this writing.
The statement from Yellen is now available on the US Treasury website, but access was removed rather swiftly leaving this for those searching for Yellen’s statement.
Our generation's economical crossroads?I did this analysis on SPY last October. If you put together context and history on this chart, It's hard to ignore a potential painful scenario. Here are my thoughts.
1) If the markets are truly fundamentally cyclical, we could imagine the past being just versions of the same phenomenon : "When we're highly over-extended, old profitable bags are being sold to young greedy believers of paradigm shifts'"
2) In order for that not to happen, you would technically need factors big enough to outweigh the gravity pull that Newton's law is usually exerting on the market.
So the question is :
1) Are these factors powerful enough to break Newton's law? (Gigantic sideline money + Massive influx of new Investors + New economic culture + Other factors I don't know of)
2) If we observe a de-coupling of crypto and traditional markets, should we interpret that as evidence of the point above being true?
I am really on the fence between those two thoughts :
1) We're obviously going down, it's pretty crystal clear. Thinking other-wise is being a euphoric noob.
2) We're entering the most chaotic and unpredictable market moves in history and our expectations should be the first thing we doubt.
It is a saying that the market has its way of not getting us what we want. The reason why I am being neutral at this point is because I truly see the 3 same scenarios since October 2021 and yet at this point, it seems still too early to confirm any of them. At least through my eyes.
Scenarios being :
1) EXPONENTIAL ERA : We enter the so called exponential era that translates into a multi-generational money orgy sort of bubble
2) REGULAR ERA : We go for a real dump (20%-30%-40%), new investors get tricked by either buying the dip too early because they think their edge is infinite or selling the bottom betting on the end of the world, and we continu going up at a regular pace. The laws of the markets prevail. Maybe crypto decouples at that point?
3) MOTHER OF ALL CRASH: We truly are the generation that eats all the compounded shit of human history's past. (Quite skeptical of that one but maybe that's a bad sign?)
DISCLAIMER : THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE