Wrong
The importance of confirmationsHey Traders,
How many times in your trading career have you had a set up that you are so confident in and is so clean that you just enter it without checking for confirmations? How many times have you seen price retract into a demand or supply area with so much force that you simply think it cannot go wrong? This trade setup right here is a prime example of why it is so important to check for confirmations and ensure that the lower time frames are indicating exactly what you want to see prior to entering a trade and not entering a trade out of fear of missing out and buying as soon as the price dips into a demand zone. Let me know in the comments if this relates to you or you've ever had an issue like this.
The analysis on the four hour had me very confident once we had broken over the recent highs. We indicated after a very long and steady downtrend that we could potentially start seeing a movement to the upside. Once we did get a clear structure break, it was followed by a strong push to the downside in which I like to call The Archers pullback. Price retraced straight back down into our demand area, which means we ticked step one and now we were looking for step 2 and Step 3.
As you can see, looking at the one hour chart, we had a steady downtrend formed prior to having a strong news release which pushed price down into the demand zone. Once we had this trendline formed, what I simply wanted to see was an area of consolidation, potentially a descending channel. Then a break of this trend line followed by a pull back followed by a break of structure down on the 15 minute. But what you can notice is as we have this trendline drawn an we dip into the demand zone, that price didn't break the trend line. It simply went sideways and did form a descending channel, but to the point where we broke the recent demand and set a lower low. In turn, it made this analysis invalid.
It is highly important that with all trade setups like this, especially trading the higher time frames, that we dive into the lower timeframes to ensure that the demand or the supply is entering the market the way we're anticipating so we can trade the distance with confidence. If we do not wait for confirmations then we are sitting blind and entering what you would call FOMO trades. Entering with much higher risk. As we can see here, price can just rip straight through these areas and we must be prepared to not take trades. If we were to enter blindly into these areas, this trade would of resulted in a loss on the account.
Do you find this analysis helpful? Should we chat more about this in the future?
BTC_USDT,WrongPlease be very, very careful
Based on the current market wave motion, all Elliott parameters were confirmed in all four waves formed.
And in the next 4 to 7 days we should be ready to start the fifth wave, which will reduce the price of bitcoin to 26,500.
This has been confirmed, 90% probability of this happening.
The market is approving each parameter.
We do not yet have complete price action patterns to confirm this fall, but Elliott has fully confirmed it.
I am monitoring the whole time frame, I will leave the exit alert as soon as I receive a strong signal
A pattern that 90% of traders do wrongMany analysts, seeing the butterfly pattern, offered a sell signal and avoided the intervention of interbank and broker companies.
As I pointed out, this information comes at a time when many people are putting the s/l (A) in the upper areas
It is visible to Inter banks, and on the other hand, these banks have the ability to fluctuate in the market.
And now, by injecting money into the market, it has changed the trend and touched the traders's/losses and made them lose money.
After the break of the trend line, the behavior of traders is still predictable for the interbank because the majority is expecting an upward trend and their stop loss is again at point (B) and they fall into the trap of these banks again and the trend by Inter banks decreases. Shifting and stopping touches touch and hurt everyone.
So what is the way of salvation?
The only way is to get along with these banks.
I have identified the possible points that 90% of traders May be do not see.
BTC Technical Analysis, Analyzed: Bearish/Bullish = SheepJust stop for a minute and think about how much fucking money you would've lost if you used technical analysis back in 2017 instead of holding onto it and selling at 15-17k area like I (And most other people I know) did.
Money means nothing and won't solve your issues. Please stop turning cypherpunk into this weird 'Get rich quick' scheme, because none of this was EVER supposed to turn out this way.
Scalping is still BY FAR the most reliable way to profit in crypto. I have met one or two people who can reliably trade on TA out of hundreds. Nobody buys shares of AMAT or INTC because
the RSI is below a certain threshold, and you shouldn't start that. Stop reading my dumb bullshit and develop a layer-2 solution to make BTC viable.
Thanks, Love you guys!
The Outsider"‘Under what fatal star was I then born,’ I asked myself, ‘for it now to be impossible for me
even to think of following the smallest inclination to virtue without its being immediately
washed away by a tide of woe! And how can it be that enlightened Providence, whose justice I
willingly adore, punishing me for my virtues, simultaneously offers me the spectacle of those
whose vices brought me low being raised on high to pinnacles?"
The Top 3 Reasons Traders Lose and Give up1). Over-trading and Random trading. Most people and traders think in order to make money as a trader you have to be trading all the time. If you are simply watching the market, you are missing out, or not doing your job by not trading it. This leads to over trading, and trading randomly or outside of your edge. Any trades taken that are not apart of your trading plan and do not align with your clearly defined edge, should be considered random trading. This is common after losing, because the natural tendency to want to make back what you lost. This only compounds mistakes and adds to the losses, making it even harder to recover both emotionally and financially.
Being excited or eager to trade is normal, especially for beginners who are drawn to the profit potential. We are all in the market to make money, and if you are not in the market you are not making money. But more often than not, being out of the market is the right thing to do. It is often better to not make any money, than to lose it!
By understanding, developing, and only trading your edge you increase your likelihood of earning a consistent income. Remember, all edges have a failure rate between 40-60%. So it is important to not jump back into the market after losing, until the next time your edge sets up. If you do not know what your edge is, you should only trade SIM or not at all until you develop one.
2). Scalping or Not Allowing for Windfall Profits. There is an old saying on Wall Street "you cant go broke taking profits." But you absolutely can go broke by taking profits, primarily when your losses are bigger than your wins.
It has become common these days for people to advocate scalping. But they do not understand that the math is against them.
They think since the high frequency trading firms are scalping for ticks or a point, that they should too. But a retail trader cannot compete with these institutions. They have algorithms that can make 10 trades faster than you blink, pay minimal commissions, have direct access to the exchanges, hedge their trades, and often use wide stops and scale in to positions.
A beginner should never scalp, and even those with experience are better off swing trading as it offers a less stressful and less difficult way to trade profitably. When swing trading it only takes 1 out of 10 trades to offset all the losers and provide a profit. This is the complete opposite of scalping, where it takes 10 winners to offset one large loss. Or if you are using a smaller stop like twice your target (1 point target and 2 point stop), it still takes 2 trades to make up a single loss and a third to make a minuscule profit after commissions. What happens when you lose again? This cycle repeats over and over, and the trader dies slowly but surely from 100 bee stings.
3). Wrong Mentality. There are many examples of the wrong traders mentality which prevents success for so many. One of which is losing. Most traders do not like to lose, they see losing as a problem. They do not understand that losers lead to winners, and that losing is the natural cycle of trading and is imperative to a consistent return. You cant win if you dont lose!
Another example is emotions. Most traders see emotions as the enemy, that which stands between themselves and the market, and prevents them from succeeding. So they work to try and remove emotions. But this is not possible. As long as you are a human you will have emotions. You can never remove them. The key is to understand them, and use them to your advantage in the market. And when you are not in the right mental state, remove yourself from the market altogether.
A third example is fighting the market. This relates back to the first topic, over trading and random trading. Many traders do not realize the market does not always offer what they are seeking. A trading range is a good example of this. In a trading range, the market goes sideways there are many failures, and the market does not get very far. What happens to a trader who does not realize this? He continues fighting the market, looking for a large gain when the market is not offering one.
So it is important to understand your self and the market. Not just the market. You need to be able to realize when you should not be trading because your mind is not in the right state productive to trading. As well as knowing and understanding your edge, which also means the market context it works well in, and when it does not.
For more understanding on these topics and more, including how to develop an edge and how to better your traders mentality, see website below.
If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
FIB-Extensions and why you might use them wrong!#Cypher-Pattern!Hey guys,
here is my last video about FIBONACCI and its extensions. :-)
No offens to those you use it in a wrong way -I did the same mistake!
I just wanna show you how you should do it and wanna help you to improve your trading. :-)
If you don`t really understand why, just check the first Video of my Fibinacco-series.
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? Need more education or signals? PM mw. :-)
Massive Cup and Handle Hey Guys
www.tradingview.com
I'm very new on the block and I don't know what type of reception this will receive but hey this a wild and wacky world and anything can happen
I predict the biggest cup and handle ever seen by man, where we can be fluctuating between 12k -7k at any time, but the main break out points will be around the 20k-15k area.
If you would like to discuss this idea and poke holes in it, please do so as I will be reading them all and hopefully learning why I'm so very wrong