BRIEFING Week #9 : Is this just a Bad Dream ?!Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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WTI
USOIL WTI The price was in a downward trend, moving within a descending channel. A breakout from this channel indicates potential trend reversal or correction.
Consolidation Zone Identified:
The price is currently in a consolidation phase (marked in orange).
A breakout above this zone could confirm bullish momentum, while rejection could push it lower.
Key Resistance Levels for Upside Targets:
If the price breaks above the consolidation zone, it could rally toward 71.246 and 72.103 as potential resistance levels.
Green arrows indicate bullish breakout targets.
Key Support Levels for Bearish Move:
If the price fails to break above the consolidation zone, A further breakdown below this support level could push the price toward 68.400 and 66.888, the next major support.
Conclusion:
The next major move will depend on how price reacts to the consolidation zone. A breakout above could lead to bullish targets, while failure could send prices lower toward the next major support. Traders should watch for confirmation before entering trades. 🚀📉
Oil ($USOIL) – Diesel Demand Soars as Cold Grips U.S.Oil ( TVC:USOIL ) – Diesel Demand Soars as Cold Grips U.S.
(1/9)
Good morning, Tradingview! Oil is dipping slightly 📉, at $ 74.93, down 0.1% from yesterday’s close, as per February 27, 2025, data. Cold weather’s driving up U.S. diesel demand 💪, and Texas power systems are hitting clean energy milestones 🌿. Let’s dive into this oil play! 🔍
(2/9) – REVENUE PERFORMANCE 📊
• Post-Election: $ 74.93, down 0.1% from $ 75.00 💰
• Feb 27, 2025: Diesel demand rises due to cold weather 📏
• Texas Power: Clean energy milestones achieved 🌟
TVC:USOIL steady, with diesel’s boost! ⚙️
(3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈
• Market Cap: Approximately $ 1.05B, tracks WTI crude tight 🏆
• Diesel Spike: Cold lifts usage, per Reuters ⏰
• Energy Shift: Texas clean power climbs 🎯
TVC:USOIL firm, frost pays off! 🚀
(4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑
• Cold Snap: Boosts diesel usage across U.S. 🔄
• Texas Grid: Clean energy marks met 🌍
• Market Reaction: Down 0.1% post-election 📋
TVC:USOIL adapting, chill’s the star! 💡
(5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡
• Election Aftermath: Policy shifts may affect prices 🔍
• Green Energy Growth: Challenges oil’s dominance 📉
• Weather Flux: Diesel demand may fluctuate ❄️
TVC:USOIL tough, but risks hover! 🛑
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪
• Diesel Lift: Cold weather props up demand 🥇
• Oil Core: Fundamental to energy needs 📊
• Resilience: Handles market fluctuations 🔧
TVC:USOIL got heat in the freeze! 🏦
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️
• Weaknesses: Election haze, green energy bite 📉
• Opportunities: Continued cold weather, rising demand 📈
Can AMEX:USO bank on the frost to gains? 🤔
(8/9) – OIL’s $ 74.93 dip, diesel up in Feb 2025, your take? 🗳️
• Bullish: $ 80+ soon, cold lasts 🐂
• Neutral: Steady, risks in check ⚖️
• Bearish: $ 70 looms, green wins 🐻
Chime in below! 👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯
TVC:USOIL $ 74.93 dip masks diesel’s cold surge 📈, Texas green strides mix it up 🌿. Election stings, yet dips are our DCA gold 💰. We grab ‘em low, climb like pros! Gem or bust?
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to the area of 67,037 (Wave C).The price is still in a downtrend and I believe that before the price starts an upward movement it needs to complete a big “ABC” correction and a small five-wave formation.
I think the price will reach the level of 67,037. This level is quite important, because in its area we need to look carefully for reversal patterns.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
The downtrend dominates, the focus needs attentionGeneral crude oil market and WTI crude oil technical chart TVC:USOIL Still in a downward trend.
Trump revoked Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela, which has fueled supply-side market concerns and supported a recovery in oil prices, but they are still on a downtrend and trade policy uncertainty has limited a recovery in demand expectations. The focus of the crude oil market will still need to pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation, the US Dollar index, and the Trump administration's trade policy.
Notable technical levels are as follows.
Support: 68.52USD
Resistance: 70 - 71.43USD
USOIL - Short Trade (28th Feb 2025)This is a short trade idea on Crude Oil.
Basically, i'm not convinced of this sudden rejection. This is just manipulation to me. I want to target the liquidity resting below. I think we are going downtown to a monthly sSIBI at around 57.
Liquidity and efficiency rules the market. Everything else is nonsense.
- R2F Trading
Crude Oil - The Manipulation of Trend LinesIn this example on Crude Oil I give some insight into how trendlines and traditional support & resistance theories may be used by "smart money" for the purposes of facilitating their positions via inducing liquidity.
Basically, trendlines are drawn along the highs or lows of price movements and help to identify the direction and strength of a trend. They serve as visual guidelines for traders, highlighting potential turning points or continuation patterns. Support and resistance levels are areas where the price historically finds a floor or ceiling, leading many market participants to place their entry and exit orders around these zones. Because these levels are based on historical price action, they hold significant psychological value among retail traders.
The Mechanism of Liquidity Manipulation
Liquidity Pools and Stop Loss Clusters:
Retail traders often cluster their stop losses near prominent support or resistance levels. Smart money is aware of these liquidity pools and can engineer price moves to trigger these stops. For example, by intentionally nudging the price through a known support level, institutional players can trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders. This “stop run” injects a burst of liquidity into the market, which can then be absorbed as positions are liquidated at less favorable prices for retail traders.
False Breakouts and Reversals:
Another common tactic involves creating false breakouts. A price move that breaks above a resistance level (or below a support level) might initially appear to signal a new trend. However, smart money can deliberately drive prices just past these technical barriers to trigger stop-loss orders and entry orders. Once sufficient liquidity is collected from the triggered orders, they may reverse the move. This reversal traps traders who anticipated a sustained breakout, leaving them with positions that quickly turn against them.
Exploiting Herd Behavior and Market Sentiment:
The widespread reliance on technical analysis means that many traders have similar expectations about where price will reverse or accelerate. This collective mindset, or herd behavior, creates predictable zones of liquidity. Smart money can capitalize on these self-fulfilling prophecies by anticipating the mass reaction around key trendlines and support/resistance levels. They use this insight to position themselves ahead of the crowd, executing large trades that move the market in their favor.
Strategic Benefits for Smart Money
By manipulating these common technical levels, smart money participants can:
Maximize Efficiency: Accumulate or distribute large positions with minimal market impact by tapping into pre-existing liquidity pools.
Control Market Direction: Influence short-term price movements to create advantageous conditions for larger trades.
Enhance Risk-Reward Profiles: Trigger stop losses at critical junctures, effectively reducing their own risk while capitalizing on forced exits from retail traders.
Conclusion
While trendlines and support/resistance are invaluable tools for assessing market structure and potential price movements, they also serve as instruments for liquidity manipulation by experienced market participants. The predictable nature of stop-loss placements and entry orders around these levels creates opportunities for smart money to trigger cascades of orders, generating liquidity in their favor. As a result, retail traders must be aware of these dynamics and consider them when planning their trades, acknowledging that what appears to be a genuine breakout may, in fact, be a carefully orchestrated move to capture liquidity.
This nuanced understanding highlights the double-edged nature of technical analysis tools in modern trading. By appreciating both their utility and potential for manipulation, traders can better navigate the complex interplay between market psychology and institutional strategy.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Waiting For a Signal to Buy
WTI Crude Oil is stuck on a major rising trend line on a daily.
To buy the market with a confirmation, I am waiting for a bullish
breakout of an intraday 4H resistance.
4H candle close above 69.3 will be a strong bullish signal.
A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 69.9 level then.
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WTI - Will Oil Return to the Uptrend?!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving within its medium-term descending channel. If the downward trend continues towards the demand range, the next opportunity to buy oil with a risk-reward ratio will be provided for us. An upward correction of oil towards the supply range will provide us with an opportunity to sell it.
Despite markets showing resilience to geopolitical uncertainties following recent tensions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, any signs of economic weakness in the United States could prompt investors to raise their expectations for interest rate cuts. However, even if inflation data does not reinforce such expectations, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar.
In the United States, inflation remains a major challenge for the Federal Reserve. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3% in January, dashing hopes for two rate cuts in 2025. However, the market’s reaction was not overly negative, as investors anticipated that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which the Federal Reserve prioritizes, would be less severe than the CPI.
According to the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s Nowcast model, the core PCE index fell from 2.8% to 2.7% in January, while the overall PCE rate declined to 2.5%. If the actual data released on Friday aligns with these projections and no unexpected increases appear in the monthly figures, expectations for two 0.25% rate cuts may strengthen, exerting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
Meanwhile, U.S.President Joe Biden attempted to foster freer elections in Venezuela by extending an offer of cooperation, but this initiative failed. Now, Trump has announced that he will terminate this policy. He also noted that Venezuela is refusing to take back illegal migrants who had arrived in the U.S.
This agreement, which had eased sanctions on oil, gas, and gold, was partially revoked in April 2024 after opposition candidate María Corina Machado was barred from running in the presidential election. Trump wrote on Truth Social: “We hereby revoke the concessions that corrupt Joe Biden granted to Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela regarding the oil deal dated November 26, 2022, as well as the electoral conditions in Venezuela, which the Maduro regime has failed to meet. Additionally, the regime has not returned the violent criminals it sent to our great America as quickly as promised. Therefore, I am ordering that Biden’s ineffective and unmet concessions be revoked as of the March 1 extension date.”
Today, Trump escalated his stance on Venezuela by canceling Chevron’s oil license. This move was prompted by Caracas’s refusal to accept deportees and implement democratic reforms. President Trump announced that he would revoke the Biden-era license that had allowed Chevron to produce oil in Venezuela.
This decision appears to be a significant setback for Chevron, the American oil giant. On his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump stated that he would rescind the license granted on November 26, 2022, which had permitted Chevron to operate in Venezuela.
WTI Oil H4 | Intense bearish momentumWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 69.58 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 70.40 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 68.42 which is a multi-swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Approaching the 2year Buy Zone.WTI Crude Oil turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.899, MACD = -0.720, ADX = 32.215) failing to cross above the 1D MA50 last Thursday and eventually getting rejected to today's low. This low just hit the HL trendline of September and is about to enter the S1 Zone that has been holding since March 2023. Every breach inside this Zone has been the best long term buy opportunity on WTI. Until the Zone breaks, we will treat it as the best buy entry, aiming at the LH Zone (TP = 77.00).
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WTI INTRADAY fears of slower energy demandEIA Crude Oil Inventories due in 3 hours, (15.30 GMT). A forecast is for 2.4M, the previous figure was 4.63M. The WTI Crude (US Light Crude) price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend.
The key trading level is at 7060, the 13th February swing low level. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 7060 level could target the downside support at 6850 followed by 6800 and 6715 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 7060 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 7145 resistance followed by 7194 levels.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
WTI Oil H4 | Bearish downtrend to extend further?WTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 69.45 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 70.20 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 68.46 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to the area of 68.926 (Wave C).Colleagues, price has worked the downward movement perfectly, but I believe the downward movement is not over yet.
Wave “C” is a five-wave wave and now the price is in the correction of wave “4”.
I expect the price to reach the downtrend line in the area of 72.00 level, then I expect the price to decline to the area of 68.926.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
USOIL POTENTIAL LONG|
✅USOIL is about to retest a key structure level of 68.50$
Which implies a high likelihood of a move up
As some market participants will be taking profit from short positions
While others will find this price level to be good for buying
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bullish correction
LONG🚀
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WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) – Bearish Momentum Below $70.49 WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) Analysis – February 24, 2025
WTI Crude Oil is currently trading at $70.18, and as long as the price trades below $70.49, the bearish momentum remains dominant.
🔻 Bearish Scenario (Active)
✅ The price failed to reclaim the pivot zone at $71.78, leading to continued selling pressure.
✅ A confirmed break below $70.49 indicates a potential drop toward $68.53 and $67.03 as the next bearish targets.
✅ The monthly support trendline around $67 - $68 will act as a key level to watch for a potential reaction.
🔹 Bullish Reversal (Invalid Unless Above $71.78)
⚠️ If the price closes above $71.78, we could see a potential pullback toward $72.72 and $75.00.
⚠️ However, the trend remains bearish while trading below $70.49, meaning any bullish movements will likely be corrective bounces rather than a full reversal.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
🔹 Resistance Levels: $71.78 | $72.72 | $75.00
🔹 Pivot Zone: $70.49
🔹 Support Levels: $68.53 | $67.03 | $66.20
🚨 Directional Bias: Bearish as long as the price stays below $70.49. Expect further downside pressure toward $68.53 - $67.03.
WTI Oil H1 | Bearish momentum gaining further tractionWTI oil (USOIL) could pull back towards a pullback resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 70.89 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 71.35 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 70.11 which is a multi-swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USOIL (WTI)USOIL Technical Analysis – Key Support and Resistance Levels
USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) is currently trading near a strong support level at $70.00. This level has acted as a significant price floor, preventing further declines and indicating strong buying interest. The recent price action suggests a potential bullish move if the support holds.
Bullish Scenario:
If the price remains above $70.00, we can expect an upward movement toward the next resistance levels.
The first key resistance is at $71.200, where previous price action has shown selling pressure. A break above this level could confirm short-term bullish momentum.
If buying pressure continues, the next target would be $72.600, which is a stronger resistance zone where sellers might step in.
Bearish Scenario:
If USOIL fails to hold above $70.00 and breaks below it, this could signal further downside movement.
WTI crude oil shows the potential for a bounceThis is a bit of a scrappy chart, but I still see the potential for a cheeky bounce.
WTI crude oil is trying to snap a 4-week losing streak, by stalling around a 50% retracement level. Last week's candle was an inverted hammer, and the previous two weeks have both closed above the 50% level.
A bullish divergence formed on the daily RSI (2) ahead price action finding support at the 200-day SMA and 200-day EMA.
From here, the bias remains bullish while prices hold above last week's low. Bulls could seek dips towards the 200-day MAs, with a near-term upside target of $72. A break above which brings $74 into focus, near the monthly pivot point.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
BRIEFING Week #8 : Risk-Off move this weekHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil