Wtii posted this Idea about 1 month ago
this is an Update , i consider an up trend idea for wti for now ..
first target 82.00
second 92.00
and the third : 100.000
WTI
Oil prices losing strength due to China's economic slowdown
Oil prices continue to trend downward, as are expectations for increased U.S. oil production and pessimism about the Chinese economy. Expectations are growing that oil prices will gradually fall following reports that new wells will be drilled in US shale fields, and the costs for them will drop significantly by about 10% this year alone. Meanwhile, the economic slowdown in China, the world's largest crude oil importer, is also putting downward pressure on oil prices. China's oil imports in June fell 10.7% amid disappointment that the PBoC's rate cuts were not large enough to boost the Chinese economy.
USOIL (WTI) has been trending downward over the past week, falling to the 75.10 level. After death-crossed, both EMAs rapidly widen the gap and send out a typical bearish signal. If USOIL fails to hold the 75.00 support, where the trend line intersects, the price could fall further to 72.50. Conversely, if USOIL advances toward the 76.80 resistance after recovering EMA21, the price may gain upward momentum toward the 78.20 level.
2024-07-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Lower low again after market formed a perfect double top with Globex high, which was couple of ticks above Globex open. Market is going down but barely. Bears taking profits at new lows and wait for market to go higher again before they sell it. 1h 20ema is a roller coaster. Need to trade small, have wide stops and wait for decent pullbacks.
current market cycle: trending trading range or broad bear channel, whatever you prefer to call it
key levels: 74 - 78
bull case: Bulls buying new lows and making money. That’s about it. They are too weak to push to make new highs and bears will probably stop at bigger resistance which I think is below 74.
Invalid below 73.
bear case: Bears in control but they are taking profits at new lows and thats why the channel down is so broad and we have two sided trading. Play the bear channel until it’s clearly broken. Do not try to be a rocket scientist here and start with macro schmackro stuff about oil. It’s going down, look for shorts. Be Forest Gump and not Cathie Wood.
Invalid above 78.
short term: Bearish. Play the channel.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday
current swing trade: Still short since 82.69.
trade of the day: Selling the double top Globex and EU high at 77.6. Had to get short latest at bar 42 but better 41 since it was also a head & shoulders or the top of the trading range. More than enough reasons to sell.
next sell opportunityI consider this scenario and will look for confirmation at indicated levels to short
CRUDE OIL WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL is trading in a
Downtrend and the price
Broke the key horizontal
Level of 76.50$ which is now
A resistance and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are bearish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bearish continuation
SHORT🔥
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Oil Moves At The End Of July..Over a mid-long term period we have seen Oil slowly close in on its price range.
This comes as the Market awaits a larger sentiment inflow and move either largely up or down.
In my previous posts on Tradingview, I mentioned it short various times, so our bias remains the same on any rises.
Any longs, really, need a larger fall to key support levels below.
WTI Oil - 4HWTI oil completed its second bullish leg and has now formed a reversal setup. The price action shows that WTI missed the ascending channel support and is currently consolidating below the previous support zone, which has now turned into a resistance level. This suggests a potential bearish outlook as the price struggles to regain upward momentum.
With the recent break of the ascending channel, it is expected that WTI may continue its downward trajectory. The consolidation under the new resistance zone indicates seller strength, and further declines could be seen if the price fails to break back above this resistance. Traders should watch for key support levels around $81 and $78 for potential buy signals or continuation of the bearish trend.
WTI rebounds after larger crude drawdownAfter falling sharply in the last few days, crude oil prices were trying to form support as WTI tested its technically-important 200-day average following the release of US oil inventories data. The data showed a larger-than-expected drawdown of 3.7 million barrels on the headline front. Stocks of oil products (gasoline and distillates) and crude inventories at Cushing all showed drawdowns too. In theory, oil prices should find some support on the back of these numbers. However, with global economic data remaining soft this week, demand concerns continue to hold back oil prices. So, a clear bullish signal is needed to encourage the bulls to step back in on oil.
If we see any distinct bullish reversal signals on WTI or Brent, then this would suggest that at least some buying could be on the way in the days ahead, as the previous selling pressure is potentially replaced by buying. Let’s see if that happens today.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bearish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 79.03 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 80.70 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 75.23 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
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WTIThe general trend of oil is currently downward and every high is worth selling!
Pay attention to the limits beforehand and check in a small time frame
Summary of Bullish Outlook for (WTI) OilSeveral factors are contributing to a bullish outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices in the near future:
1. **Rising Global Demand**: As major economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, industrial and transportation activities are increasing, particularly in Asia with significant contributions from China and India.
2. **Production Cuts**: OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) continue to implement production cuts to stabilize and boost oil prices, preventing significant declines.
3. **Declining Oil Inventories**: Recent reports show a notable decrease in oil inventories in the United States and other countries, indicating higher consumption and demand in the market.
4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Instability in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and North Africa can lead to supply concerns and price increases.
5. **Investment in Alternative Energies**: While the long-term shift to renewable energy sources may reduce oil demand, short-term transitions and policy changes can cause price volatility and increases.
### Conclusion
Given these factors, the outlook for WTI oil prices is bullish. Investors and analysts should closely monitor these dynamics to make informed decisions in the oil market.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Bearish Trend Continues
WTI Crude Oil formed a classic bearish reversal pattern
on a daily time frame - a head & shoulders pattern.
Bearish violation of its neckline is an important bearish signal.
I think that the market may reach 77.9 level next week.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
CRUDE OIL Support Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL is going down
Now but the price will soon
Hit a horizontal support
Of 80.15$ from where
We will be expecting a
Local bullish rebound
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
WTI OIL Still bearish but watch this level for a reversal.WTI Oil (USOIL) is posting today the 2nd straight green 1D candle following yesterday's EIA report but the short-term pattern remains a (dashed) Channel Down, which keeps the trend bearish. Ever since the July 05 rejection at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Triangle pattern, we've been aiming for a 1W MA200 (red trend-line) contact, similar to the February 05 2024 Low.
As long as the 1D RSI remains below its MA trend-line, we will remain bearish, moving however our medium-term Target a bit higher to 78.50.
If however the RSI breaks above its MA, we will close the short immediately and buy instead on the bullish break-out, targeting 87.60 (Resistance 2).
Keep also an eye on the RSI's Symmetrical Support level (43.35) for a potential reversal.
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CRUDE OIL RISKY LONG|
✅CRUDE OIL fell again to retest the support of 80.50$
But it is a strong key level
So I think that there is a high chance
We will see a bullish rebound and a move up
LONG🚀
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It's time to make a good trade.
According to the 30-minute gold chart, gold will continue to rise, which is a good trading opportunity for traders who buy.
The increase is about 7-12 US dollars.
TVC:DXY INDEX:BTCUSD BLACKBULL:US30 COMEX:GC1! MCX:GOLD1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! NYMEX:MCL1! MCX:CRUDEOIL1! NYMEX:WTI1! OANDA:XAUUSD NYMEX:CL1!
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 80.42 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 79.50 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 38.2% retracement and the 100.0% projection levels.
Take profit is at 83.62 which is a pullback resistance.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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WTI Crude Oil facing downward pressure - 07/16/2024 (GMT)Fundamental
Oil prices are falling as US consumer indicators worsen. Due to the slowdown in CPI, the possibility that the Fed will cut the interest rate in September has sharply increased. Still, concerns about an economic slump are becoming more prominent. The University of Michigan's July consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest in eight months, and China's economic slowdown is also a decisive factor in the decline in oil prices.
Meanwhile, there is also a view that the strength of oil demand will be sustained until the end of the year. According to the EIA, gasoline demand last week was the highest since 2019 for the week that includes the Independence Day holiday, and the four-week average for jet fuel demand also rose to its highest since January 2020.
Technical
After reaching the 82.50 level, USOIL lost its uptrend and fell to the 80.20 level. The price fails to hold above the EMAs and sends an apparent bearish signal. If USOIL's downtrend continues and retreats to the 80.00 support, the price may fall further to the 78.00 level, the lowest point in a month. Conversely, if USOIL rallies to the 81.00 level, where EMA21 and the initial support intersect, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 84.00 resistance.
USOIL Slides to Crucial Support Region on Demand JittersThe commodity staged a four-week relief rally recently and the longest profitable streak of the year, helped by OPEC+ supply curbs extension and summer travel demand. At the same time, soft US inflation and dovish Fed commentary have boosted market pricing for multiple cuts, which can provide another tailwind. Above the EMA200 bulls have the ability to set higher highs (84.54), but don’t inspire yet confidence for new 2024 highs (87.66).
Despite the near-term favorable supply-demand dynamics, longer-term prospects are gloomy, as OPEC+ will start returning oil to the market and usage is likely to decelerate substantially this year. This week’s data from China (the world’s largest importer) aggravated demand concerns, as the economy grew by 4.7% y/y in Q2 and the slowest pace in more than a year.
USOil faces pressure as a result and threatens a key support region, provided by the 200Days EMA (blue line), the 38.2% Fibonacci of the last leg up and the upper border of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Although this cluster has the potential to contain the fall, a breach would shift bias to the downside. This would expose WTI to 76.13 and bring the June lows to the spotlight (72.40), although sustained weakness is not easy under current conditions.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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WTI Crude Oil Bearish Heist Plan to make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist WTI Crude Oil Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Stop Loss : Recent Swing High using 4h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Unpacking the Looming Oil Price Surge: A Multifaceted AnalysisGlobal oil markets are brewing with the potential for a significant price surge. This intricate scenario is fueled by a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and market dynamics. This analysis dives deep into these factors, equipping you to navigate the complexities of the oil market and make informed decisions.
Geopolitical Tinderbox in the Middle East:
The Middle East, a lynchpin of global oil production, has a long history of political instability. Conflicts in this region, especially those involving major oil producers, can wreak havoc on supply chains. When oil production or transportation is disrupted, scarcity drives prices upwards. Recent tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, for example, have raised concerns about a potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for oil transport. Such an event could throw global oil supplies and prices into disarray.
The US Dollar: A Double-Edged Sword:
During periods of global turmoil, investors often flock to safe-haven assets like the US dollar (USD). Since oil is priced in USD, a stronger dollar might dampen the potential rise in oil prices. This is because a rising dollar makes oil more expensive for countries purchasing with other currencies, potentially leading to a decline in demand. However, the safe-haven demand for USD also introduces broader complexities to global financial markets. Increased investor risk reassessment can lead to market volatility, impacting oil prices as market sentiment reacts to geopolitical developments.
China's Economic Engine: A Potential Dampener:
China, the world's largest oil consumer, plays a critical role in global oil demand. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy can have significant repercussions. Recent indicators suggest a deceleration in China's economic growth, potentially leading to reduced oil consumption. This economic slowdown acts as a cautionary sign for bullish traders, as it could counteract the upward pressure on prices from supply disruptions and safe-haven demand for USD. China's economic challenges are multifaceted. The country is grappling with the aftermath of strict COVID-19 measures that disrupted both domestic consumption and international trade. Additionally, the real estate sector, a significant driver of Chinese economic growth, is facing a severe downturn, further dampening economic prospects. These factors collectively suggest that China's demand for oil may not grow as robustly as it has in the past, potentially providing a stabilizing effect on global oil prices despite other upward pressures.
Market Dynamics and Speculation: The Amplification Factor:
Beyond geopolitical and economic considerations, market dynamics and speculative trading play a crucial role in shaping oil prices. Hedge funds and institutional investors engage in speculative activities that can amplify price movements. In times of perceived scarcity or anticipated disruptions, speculative activities can drive prices higher as traders seek to capitalize on potential supply shortages. Furthermore, the oil futures market, where contracts for future delivery of oil are traded, can also influence current prices. If traders anticipate higher future prices due to geopolitical risks or economic factors, they may bid up prices in the present, leading to immediate price increases.
WTI Oil H4 | Rising into resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 83.62 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 84.80 which is a level that lies above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 80.94 which is a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd , previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls got the breakout again, retested it and held above 82.74. I do think the high is here in the price area below 86 but market will probably have to spend more time here before bears can potentially trade it back down. In April we spent 14 days at the highs until market broke below, retested and went down for good. I expect the same pattern.
comment: Outlooks and chart drawings do not get better than the oil chart posted below. Changed nothing for 2 weeks and still holds up. Next week could be the breakout for the bears. Decent enough rejections above 83 and even if bulls touch 84 again, I think we will trade down over the next weeks/months.
current market cycle: trading range inside the big triangle. Market should stay below 86 or this take is probably wrong. On smaller tf we are still inside the bull channel.
key levels: 80-86
bull case: Bulls were rejected a third time above 83.5 and even though they are in control above the daily 20ema, the selling pressure gets bigger and at some point they want a deeper pullback to buy.
Invalidation is below 81.
bear case: Bears have all the arguments imo. Market at big resistance 84 after bulls having 3 clear legs up. Bears now want a deep pullback to 80 and then keep the bounce below 83 and form a proper channel down.
Invalidation is above 85.
outlook last week:
“short term: Bearish but I wait for bull channel break and bigger selling pressure. Can come fast or take the whole week. All bullish targets are met and as I wrote last week, next 10 points will probably be made to the down side.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 83.16 and now we are at 82.21. High was 83.74 and low was 80.81. outlook was good for 200+ points.
short term: Bearish. All shorts have stop 86.35 so trade small.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again.
current swing trade: Short since 82.58. Would add to shorts above 83.5 if we get there. SL 86.35.
chart update: Nope.
