USOIL Higher Time Frame Possible Bullish ScenarioThis is higher time frame bullish scenario on USOIL (WTI). This is only applicable if a bullish breakout occurs.
1. The price is inside a triangle which is getting squeezed and reaching its apex. That means we are going to have a breakout very soon.
2. Recently the price completed and M pattern and jumped higher. When M pattern completes the market goes higher.
3. If we get a bullish breakout from this triangle and if this breakout confirms, we can have formation of a potential W pattern. This when completed will have the potential to make oil fall again.
4. After that if the price stays bullish or becomes bullish again, we have a gap available around 100 area which needs to be filled at subpoint.
5. That will also lead us into a bigger multiple month and possibly multi year bullish formation of a W pattern.
But first, we need to see how price breaks out of the triangle.
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WTI
Bearish drop?WTI/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 82.94
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 84.15
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 81.21
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
WTI tests key supportWTI was testing a key support area after falling for the third consecutive day. As can be seen on the chart, US oil was testing support around the upper end of the 80.00 - 81.50 support area, which had been resistance in the past. Here, we are expecting to see a rebound given the bullish price structure of crude oil over the past several days. If so, another test of the bearish trend line going back to September 2023 should not come as surprise, around the $84.00 area. The line in the sand is now at around $80.00, the most recent low prior to the latest rally. Should WTI break below this level, then it would invalidate its still-bullish technical picture. But my base case scenario is that we could see a recovery from around the current levels.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
WTI Crude Oil Falls for the 4th Straight DayWTI Crude Oil has been trending consistently lower dating back to Friday reverting to the $80 "magnet" that has continually attracted prices since Q4 2022.
In a rangebound market like this, traders may consider selling rallies meaningfully above $80 and buying dips toward $70, using oscillators like RSI to identify overbought and oversold markets.
-MW
WTI Oil H4 | Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 82.94 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 84.80 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 80.42 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Bullish bounce off overlap support?WTI/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 80.86
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 79.33
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 82.96
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Good follow through by the bears and a clear break below the bull channel. If we continue down from here, I would be surprised. More likely is another retest from the bulls to 83/84. Selling is strong enough that we have a decent chance of 84.52 being the high of this bull trend that’s now over and we are in a trading range at the highs. Odds strongly favor the bears since we are in a huge triangle.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 80 - 84
bull case: Bulls failed at the 1h 20ema multiple times today but held it above 82 which means we are forming a smaller descending triangle which will likely break out early tomorrow. Retest of the bull channel to 83.5 is reasonable.
Invalid below 82.
bear case: Bears showed strength by consecutive decent bear bars on the daily chart. They want the 1h 20ema to be resistance as long as possible and their next target is the daily 20ema at 81.2ish which is also the recent trading range and a magnet.
short term: Two bear trend lines which can both work and we will only find out tomorrow. Market should stay below 82.9 if bears are in control. If bulls break above, can see 83.4/84 again. So looking for shorts near 1h 20ema and upper bear trend lines. Long scalps above 83.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday
current swing trade: Small short initiated and will add on higher if necessary. Plan to hold this to at least 76 with profit taking/adding on in between.
trade of the day: Look at all the bars with a tail above 82.7. That’s more than enough reason and time to place some shorts because market is screaming at you, that bulls are not strong enough above 82.7.
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 82.34 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 80.50 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 84.45 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
BRIEFING Week #27: Further Pulling the ElasticHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Bears last stand is 84 and my choppy outlook was drawn 3 or 4 weeks ago. My outlook is the same as last weeks. More sideways movement under 84 needed until bears give up or bulls strongly break above again and we will then most certainly see 86 fast and decent chance this time they get to 90 again. I lean slightly bearish.
Quote from last week:
comment: High of the week was 82.72, so 22 ticks above my lower bull target. Most was said in my tl;dr. Bulls trying to break above 82 but can’t a one single daily close above that price. Market will also break out soon. After last week, I see this as 50/50 who get’s the breakout.
comment: Bulls got the breakout again, retested it and held above 82.74. I do think the high is here in the price area below 86 but market will probably have to spend more time here before bears can potentially trade it back down. In April we spent 14 days at the highs until market broke below, retested and went down for good. I expect the same pattern.
current market cycle: trading range inside the big triangle. Market should stay below 86 or this take is probably wrong. On smaller tf we are still inside the bull channel.
key levels: 80-86
bull case: Another breakout for the bulls but the volume is increasing and the selling pressure is building. If bulls can keep this long enough above 80, bears might give up again and the trend could continue but it’s hard to argue after 3 pushes up and the clear triangle pattern on higher tf.
Invalidation is below 81.3.
bear case: Bears want this to be a lower high since market has been doing this for 2 years now. April high was 86.27 so there is your sl if you want to short this. I do think bears want to break the bull channel first, put in another retest of 84ish for a tripple top or head & shoulders before they sell more aggressively again. They see this bull trend with the 3 pushes as done and now they want to get back below 75 again. You play the best pattern on the highest time frame because the higher the time frame the more reliable the pattern is. If multiple pattern on multiple tf align, even better. On a 1h chart we are also forming bull wedges which can break to the downside any day now.
Invalidation is above 86.27.
outlook last week:
“short term: Still slightly favoring the bulls because of the highers highs and higher lows but breakout above need to happen next week. Once we hit 83/84, I think next 10 points will be made to the down side again.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 81.54 and now we are at 83.16. High was 84.52 and I gave you 84. +246 if you will. Hope you made some.
short term: Bearish but I wait for bull channel break and bigger selling pressure. Can come fast or take the whole week. All bullish targets are met and as I wrote last week, next 10 points will probably be made to the down side.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again.
current swing trade: Will short once we break the bull channel and we see decent selling pressure.
chart update: Removed the bull wave series but all bearish patterns were drawn 2-3 weeks ago.
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
WTI - 1H Bullish SignsBased on the previous 15-minute analysis and the current 1-hour chart, WTI Crude Oil is showing strong support around the $83.00 zone. This area has acted as a significant support level, and the price has bounced off it, indicating a potential buy opportunity.
On the 15-minute chart, the price had a brief consolidation phase within the support zone before showing signs of upward momentum. This aligns with the 1-hour chart, where the price is currently attempting to rise from the same support area. The consistency in this support zone across different timeframes strengthens the bullish outlook.
Currently, WTI Crude Oil is poised to continue its upward movement from the support level, targeting higher resistance levels. Traders should look for confirmation of this bullish trend with potential higher highs and higher lows forming on the 1-hour chart. If the price maintains its support above $83.00, it could provide a favorable risk-reward ratio for long positions, aiming for the next resistance levels around $84.00 and beyond.
In summary, the support zone around $83.00 has held well, and the current bullish momentum suggests a buying opportunity in WTI Crude Oil, with an eye on higher resistance levels in the near term.
CRUDE OIL Local Bearish Bias! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL is already making
A local bearish pullback from
The horizontal resistance
Of 84.5$ so we are locally
Bearish biased and we will
Be expecting a further
Move down
Sell!
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Oil Prices Climb on Inventory DrawdownOil prices edged higher on July 3rd, 2024, buoyed by signs of a significant decline in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. Brent crude, the benchmark for international oil prices, for September settlement rose 0.1% to $86.34 a barrel by 10:21 AM in London. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. oil benchmark for August delivery, inched up to $82.88 a barrel.
This price increase comes amidst a wider risk-on sentiment in the global financial markets. Equity markets, including the S&P 500, have been reaching record highs, and this optimism appears to be spilling over into the oil market.
Inventory Drawdown: A Cause for Optimism
The primary driver behind the oil price increase is a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicating a substantial drawdown in U.S. crude oil inventories. According to sources familiar with the data, crude inventories fell by a significant 9.2 million barrels last week. If confirmed by the official figures released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) later this week, this would mark the largest single-week decline in stockpiles since January 2024.
A decline in stockpiles indicates a tightening of supply, which can lead to higher prices. This is because crude oil is a fungible commodity, meaning a barrel of oil from one source is generally equivalent to a barrel from another. So, if stockpiles decline in the United States, it can impact global supply and drive prices up.
Geopolitical Tensions and Summer Driving Season Lend Support
Apart from the inventory drawdown, several other factors are contributing to the current oil price rally. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated around the world, particularly in the Middle East. The ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah, along with potential upcoming elections in France and the UK, are keeping investors on edge. Disruptions to oil supplies from these regions could significantly impact prices.
Summer is typically a season of increased demand for gasoline due to vacation travel. While the API report also indicated a decline in gasoline stockpiles, concerns linger about weak U.S. gasoline demand, which could temper the current price uptick.
Looking Ahead: Factors to Consider
The oil market remains susceptible to several factors that could influence prices in the coming weeks and months. Here are some key elements to keep an eye on:
• Confirmation of API Inventory Data: Official confirmation from the EIA regarding the inventory drawdown will be crucial. If the data is validated, it will solidify the current bullish sentiment in the market.
• Global Economic Growth: The health of the global economy, particularly major oil-consuming countries like China, will significantly impact demand. A strong global economic recovery will likely lead to higher oil demand and consequently, higher prices.
• The Upcoming Hurricane Season: The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st, 2024. If major hurricanes disrupt oil production facilities or shipping routes in the Gulf of Mexico, it could lead to price spikes.
• Geopolitical Developments: Any escalation of geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East could lead to supply disruptions and price increases.
Overall, the recent oil price increase is a result of a confluence of factors, including a potential decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, a risk-on sentiment in the financial markets, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. While some headwinds exist, such as concerns about weak U.S. gasoline demand, the near-term outlook for oil prices appears cautiously optimistic.
In conclusion, the oil market is currently in a state of flux. While several factors currently support higher prices, the path forward remains uncertain. Close monitoring of inventory data, global economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and the Atlantic hurricane season will be crucial for understanding how oil prices will behave in the coming months.
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish reversal off overlap supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 82.69 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 80.80 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 84.45 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
WTI Crude Oil - 4H Still BullishWTI Crude Oil shows promising bullish momentum as it consolidates above a key static support zone, indicating potential for further gains. The price action demonstrates two major bullish legs, with the current position in the middle of the second major leg, suggesting continued upward movement.
Additionally, the presence of a second minor leg forming suggests that the bullish momentum might lead to a breakout, propelling prices to higher targets. Traders should monitor the minor leg’s completion and potential further advances in the price of oil, taking advantage of the bullish trend.
WTI OIL Testing 9-month Resistance.WTI Oil (USOIL) has so far ignored last week's 1D Death Cross formation and made a strong jump yesterday that isn't about to only test Resistance 1 (84.50, the April 26 High) but also the Lower Highs trend-line, a 9-month Resistance going back to September 28 2023.
The 1D RSI approaching the 70.00 overbought level after a Double Bottom at 30.00, which is a pattern we last saw leading to the January 29 2024 High. That was also a Resistance test. As a result, it is now worth attempting a tight SL sell (using that level as stop) and Target 77.00, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, being the target of the February 05 correction. That will also make a technical test of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is again what happened on Feb 05.
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BRIEFING Week #26 : Binary Mode Still Active...Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
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Natural Gas Bleeding LowerNatural gas has seen negative price action since we got the golden cross.
The 50 & 200 moving average is touted as a bullish signal but often sold into in the near term.
This sell off in Nat gas is going quick and deep.
The problem with that is the sector is leveraged with triples & doubles.
If we complete the measured move down, we should see a bit lower price.
Intra day I would not be surprised for a sharp dead cat bounce.