Follow up on NatGas and oil tradeBoth trades did as expected. with Oil doing a stop hunt before going up. Both Poasitions are now in Profit. Will Leave them open for a while until we shit our TP levels above 90 for oil.
WTI
Crude Oil: Long Position Amidst Support and SeasonalityWe are considering a long position on crude oil, given that the price has reached a significant support area. This support level is reinforced by a divergence observed on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting a potential reversal in the current trend. Additionally, seasonality data supports the likelihood of a bullish movement during this period.
The convergence of these technical indicators and historical trends strengthens our conviction for a long setup. The RSI divergence indicates that the recent downward momentum may be waning, while the support area provides a strong foundation for a potential price rebound. Furthermore, seasonality data, which highlights recurring patterns in price behavior during specific times of the year, suggests that crude oil prices are poised for an upward movement.
In light of these factors, we are looking to establish a long position on crude oil, capitalizing on the technical setup and historical data that align to suggest a favorable entry point for a bullish trade.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Is That a Bull Trap?!
Crude Oil may drop after a potential bullish trap:
we see a bullish inducement and a violation of a key horizontal resistance,
followed by a strong bearish imbalance.
I think that the market may drop at least to 78.8 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Crude Oil / Brent Oil Robbery Plan in Bullish SideMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist Crude Oil based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level Police Force is waiting for our arrival, Market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan,
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money Use Trailing Stop To Protect Looted Money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order Block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target it will update after the Breakouts.
support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 79.94 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 79.00 which is a level that lies underneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 82.41 which is a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
WTI Crude Oil: LONGToday's session marks the beginning of the bullish move higher to test the April 2024 WTI highs. The ultimate target seems to be around the 85.00 - 87.00 region. This move begins now and may possibly extend to the end of June or early July.
The stop loss should be around the at least be 77.90.
Stay tuned for updates.
Can Oil soar on June 2 OPEC+ cut hopes? Can Oil soar on June 2 OPEC+ cut hopes?
WTI crude futures and Brent continue to recover from three-month lows. The rebound is potentially driven by expectations that OPEC+ will extend its output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second half of the year during its June 2 meeting.
Additional support for crude prices came from the start of the U.S. summer driving season and a weaker dollar.
Further data on the demand side will come from upcoming U.S. PCE to gauge the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. A softer-than-expected reading on the PCE could increase the possibility of interest rate cuts, and potentially enhance the demand for energy.
Deutsche Bank has maintained its Brent forecast at $83 per barrel for the second quarter and $88 for the second half of the year, assuming OPEC+ will sustain its current production policy on Sunday.
Should prices move above the $80 level, WTI could test the 50-day moving average just above $81.1. The RSI suggests there is still room for prices to rise before reaching the overbought zone. Conversely, if prices fall below the $78 range, they might stabilize around the $76 mark.
Event-Driven Strategy using WTI Weekly OptionsNYMEX: WTI Futures ( NYMEX:CL1! ) and WTI Weekly Options ( GETTEX:LO5 )
OPEC+, the coalition of the world’s leading oil producers, will convene on June 2nd to decide production policy for the second half of the year. The powerful oil cartel consists of 13 OPEC members and 9 nonmember participants, and together produces about 59% of global oil production. This amounted to 48 million barrels per day (mn b/d) in 2022, estimated by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Many analysts expect OPEC+ to continue the voluntary cut of 2.2 mn b/d, due to expire at the end of June. This voluntary cut, introduced in November 2023, adds to 3.6 mn b/d of production cut that have reduced the members’ crude output by about 5.8 mn b/d, or about 5% of global supply, since November 2022. I consider the move an attempt to shore up prices against higher US oil production and an uncertain economic outlook in China.
OPEC+ meeting is a significant event in the global crude oil market. We could liken its importance to that of the Federal Reserve meetings for equities and bonds. The group’s decision could tilt the balance of supply and demand one way or the other.
Here are three possible outcomes:
• No change: To renew existing cuts of 2.2 mn b/d through the end of the year.
• Additional cuts. This would reduce global crude oil supply.
• Ease of cuts. This would release more oil to the global market.
The oil market may stay calm if the OPEC+ decision conforms to investor expectations of no change. A surprise announcement of additional cuts would likely send oil prices skyrocketing. But any pullback from current cuts could sink oil prices down.
This provides a good setting for event-driven trading strategies.
Monitoring Crude Oil Market Sentiment Real Time
For a trading strategy to work, the trader needs to understand the market sentiment ahead of the actual event. While analysts give out opinions, it is the investors who put money in their mouth. Therefore, for unbiased decision making, we should look into trading data.
The CME Group OPEC Watch Tool is a great analytical tool for crude oil traders. It uses NYMEX WTI crude oil option prices to calculate the probabilities of certain outcomes from the nearest weekly and monthly options that expire around the OPEC meeting. In essence, it uses actual trading data, and go the extra mile to transform it into useful insights. This valuable tool is free and can be accessed via CME Group website.
The title chart includes a snapshot of CME Group OPEC Watch Tool. As of May 26th:
• OPEC Watch Tool expects a 79.1% probability of no change;
• There is a 18.8% probability of ease of cuts:
• Additional cuts remain a remote probability, at 2.2%.
I would like to point out that the market often exhibits overly pessimistic or overly optimistic sentiment. OPEC Watch Tool shows the collective wisdom of crude oil options traders. However, the trades are not scientific forecast. Market sentiment could change very rapidly. With this in mind, we need to closely monitor it with real-time trading data.
If, through independent analysis, a trader establishes an opinion very different to what the market suggested, he or she may express it with a trade position and wait for the market to correct its faulty assumptions.
Trading with NYMEX WTI Weekly Options
We could consolidate the three possible OPEC+ decisions into two:
• Within Expectation. No changes.
• Exceeding Expectation. More cuts or less cuts.
Investors expect OPEC+ to maintain its current cuts. If that turns out to be the case, oil prices may not move much following the announcement.
If a trader hosts this view, how could he or she turn it into a trade strategy? The trader could consider selling short-dated out-of-the-money (OTM) WTI crude oil options.
The July WTI futures contract ($CLN4) settled at $77.80 a barrel last Friday. Selling OTC strikes on WTI weekly options would enable the trader to collect an upfront premium. The first Friday after the OPEC+ announcement is June 7th. The weekly options ($LO1M4) will last only 12 days before its expiration.
How do we select options strikes to sell? There are really no rules of thumbs. For illustration purposes, let us pick an OTC call strike approximately $5 above current market price, and a put strike about $5 below.
• Last Friday, the 82.75 call strike settled at 17 cents. Each WTI weekly option contract has a notional value of 1,000 barrels. Therefore, the trader would collect $170 premium for selling 1 call.
• The $72.75 put strike settled at 29 cents. The trader would get $290 for selling 1 put.
• If the trader sells 1 call and 1 put, he or she could collect $460 for just 12 days.
Words of warning for options sellers:
• CME Group requires options sellers to deposit $6,001 margin for each July contract as the time of writing. Therefore, this strategy requires an investment of $12,002 for both call and put.
• If OPEC+ acts as expected and the oil market stays calm, the trader would get the margin deposit back when the options expire worthless.
• However, if oil prices move up above the call strike, the trader could incur a loss, potentially wiping out all the margin deposit, and probably more.
• If oil prices drop below the put strike, the trader would also experience a loss.
If the trader holds an opposite view, he or she could buy the OTC call or put options, depending on which direction the trader is leaning towards. For a small upfront premium, the trader could establish a position on crude oil, and potentially collect a big payout if OPEC+ changes heart.
For those who are uncertain of which way OPEC+ would go, but are convinced that they would change courses, traders could buy both OTC calls and OTC puts at the same time. This is an example of options strangle strategy.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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WTI Oil H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fib retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 78.41 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 79.30 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 76.59 which is a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Let's see if it can climb back above the 78-dollar markEASYMARKETS:OILUSD
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WTI or USOhello everyone...
the price reach the main resistance area as well reached the resistance downtrend line...price will likely pull back to support area... with today news of crude oil show high number of oil inventories. based on fundamental and technical, we should see some pull back for now...
good luck
WTI Oil H1 | Rising into resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 77.74 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 78.50 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 76.68 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
✅CRUDE OIL TIME TO BUY|LONG🚀
✅CRUDE OIL will soon retest a key support level of 76.74
So I think that the price will make a rebound
And go up to retest the supply level above at 78.00
LONG🚀
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oil (WTI)The right range of purchases with a risk to the right reward!
Stabilization stop below 76,800
BRENT. Weekly trading levels 20 - 24.05.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
----------------------------------------------
I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
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OIL (WTI) - 4H Sell SetupIn the past hours, OIL (WTI) experienced a sharp rise driven by news of Iran's president's death, which significantly impacted market sentiment.
This surge allowed OIL to break above the bearish channel and catch the liquidity over the resistance zone, as illustrated on the chart.
However, despite this upward spike, the price action suggests that OIL may continue its downward trajectory within the descending channel.
Traders should monitor this closely as the price looks set to resume its fall, adhering to the prevailing bearish trend.
The liquidity hunting above the resistance zone indicates potential for further declines as the market reverts to its established downward path.
WTI Oil H4 | Approaching pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 77.67 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 76.50 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 80.12 which is a pullback resistance that lies underneath the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
BRIEFING Week #20 : Pay the Price, Receive the Value !Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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OIL: After death of Iran's President
The recent death of Iran's President might initially impact oil prices due to concerns about Middle East instability. However, this effect is likely to be temporary for several reasons:
Limited Presidential Power: In Iran, the President's role is more executive, with real power concentrated in the hands of the Supreme Leader. Therefore, the President's death does not signify a major shift in governance or policy direction.
Supreme Leader's Influence: The President, including the late Ibrahim Raisi, is essentially elected by the Supreme Leader. This ensures continuity in Iran's political landscape, reducing the likelihood of significant instability.
Market Realization: Any initial market reaction based on fears of instability is expected to be short-lived. As the market realizes that the Supreme Leader's authority remains unchanged, confidence should return, stabilizing oil prices.
In summary, while there may be an initial reaction in the oil market, it is unlikely to result in long-term chaos or a significant deviation from the current market direction.
Crude Oil Bullish Side Robbery Plan to make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist Crude Oil based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart. There is Two Targets Our target is 1 & 2 Danger Logo and Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan,
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.
USOIL enjoys relief but has an uneasy path ahead of itWest Texas Intermediate crude oil trades near $79.80 per barrel, which happens to be slightly below the 20-day SMA and the lower bound of the ascending channel. A breakout above the moving average will bolster a bullish case for oil in the short term, especially if the price closes above the 20-day SMA for multiple consecutive days; the same applies to a breakout above the channel’s lower bound. Once the 20-day SMA is broken, $80.44 and $82.25 are important resistance levels to watch out for. However, a rejection at the moving average and channel’s bound will be somewhat concerning, potentially foreshadowing further stagnation around the current price or return of weakness.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays simple support and resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs.
Illustration 1.02
The daily MACD of USOIL is shown above. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line. However, it is important to emphasize that MACD is still within the bearish area below the midpoint.
Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Monthly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
