Crude Oil | BULLS MAY DOMINATE THE NEXT DAYSMay is not always a good month for crude oil. When you look at the last 40 years, there is a positive change rate of less than 50%.
However, Crude oil is moving to the support resistance point, and its performance in the last 8 election years, from the beginning of the may to the 21-22 of May during the election years, is 7 years positive and an average return of 12%.
That's why I'm very BULLISH on Crude oil, which is below last year's opening level and at a significant support-resistance flip point.
WTI
WTI OIL Will it continue to drop?WTI Oil (USOIL) gave us an excellent sell signal last week (April 29, see chart below) following the first 4H Death Cross since October 10 2023, which easily hit our Target:
We now need to look at the longer-term time-frames for clues on the direction as short-term it turned bearish. Looking at the 1D time-frame though, we can clearly see that WTI is on a strong Support Cluster consisting of the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The Higher Lows trend-line that started on the December 13 2023 bottom, is just below.
With the 1D RSI hitting its 30.00 oversold level and rebounded, we are bullish short-term, targeting 84.00 (the Lower Highs trend-line). If however we close a 1D candle below the Higher Lows, we will take the loss and turn bearish instead, targeting 71.00 (the 0.236 Fibonacci and just above the 3-year Higher Lows Zone. The risk is low on this strategy.
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Oil setting itself up for a rebound after six days of sellingAmid a quick change in the market sentiment in mid-April 2024 and subsequent weakness in stocks, West Texas Intermediate crude oil (USOIL) retreated from its highs to $78 per barrel. In the process, USOIL broke below the lower bound of the ascending channel, and the daily time frame turned bearish, with MACD crossing below the midpoint, Stochastic falling into the lower area, and RSI approaching 30 points. The weekly time frame also turned slightly bearish, with MACD, Stochastic, and RSI reversing; nevertheless, it must be noted that MACD remains in the bullish zone, and ADX contains a relatively low value, hinting at a neutral or very weak trend on the medium time frame. As for the monthly time frame, technicals indicate a sideways-moving market as well.
From a bigger perspective, USOIL appears in the range that has been under development since early 2023, defined by roughly $83 on the top and $70 on the bottom. In the smaller picture, USOIL experienced a decline of approximately 11% just within the past six trading sessions, potentially setting it up for a rebound; should it occur, close attention will be paid to the resistance level at $79.72, which has acted as a barrier on multiple occasions throughout the past half year. In the event of a failure, the attention will be shifted to the support at $76.82 and $75.56, where buying interest might emerge.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows USOIL’s daily chart. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower bound of the channel.
Illustration 1.02
The illustration above depicts the daily graph of MACD. The yellow arrow highlights a crossover through the midpoint, normally a bearish development.
Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish (weak trend)
Monthly time frame = Neutral
OPEC’s workshop
As a result of the directives of the OPEC’s meeting held on 3rd April 2024, member countries with outstanding overproduced volumes were required to submit detailed compensation plans by 30th April 2024. In accordance with that, OPEC held a workshop on 3rd May 2024 to share compensation plans for Iraq and Kazakhstan for their outstanding overproduced volumes for the months of January, February, and March 2024, which totaled about 602,000 barrels per day for Iraq and 389,000 barrels per day for Kazakhstan.
Houthi’s aggression
Yemen's Houthi attacks on commercial shipping are escalating and spreading beyond the confines of the Red Sea. After the targeting of the MSC Orion on 26th April 2024, positioned 600 kilometers (375 miles) off Yemen's coast, another assault occurred merely two days later, on 29th April 2024, hitting the ship Cyclades near Mokha, Yemen. This increasing aggression highlights the region's growing instability, compounded by the United States and its allies' failure to curb the situation through airstrikes on Yemeni targets earlier this year.
Hamas-Israel negotiations
After months of stalled negotiations, Hamas representatives arrived in Cairo, Egypt, over the weekend for another round of ceasefire talks with Israel. Major media outlets reported that a truce is closer than ever before. Nonetheless, significant hurdles remain beneath the surface as both sides hesitate to make concessions. Hamas is adamant about the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and obtaining a guarantee from the United States that Israel will not launch a ground invasion of Rafah. Meanwhile, Israel maintains its stance that it will proceed with the invasion regardless. In addition to that, Israel’s hawks are vocal that even if a ceasefire deal is reached, it will not mark the end of the war.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CRUDE OIL Will Go UP! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL has made a
Retest of the rising support
Line and it is making
A bullish rebound so
Our local bullish bias
Is confirmed and we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
WTI Running wellThe previous setup i shared about WTI is confirmed and actally is running pretty well. I expect a continuation to the upside till the resistance area at $81.5 before a possible retrace. On lower timeframe we can see a bullish divergence and a break above bearish trendline. Expecting higher
WTI Oil H4 | Potential rebound off 61.8% Fibonacci support?WTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 77.43 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 75.40 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 80.18 which is an overlap resistance.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
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WTI Oil H4 | Falling to 61.8% Fibonacci supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 77.43 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 75.40 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 80.18 which is an overlap resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Can crude finally find a footing?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot. Could this commodity potentially stall around this level before reversing to bounce higher towards the 1st resistance?
Pivot: 79.26
1st Support: 77.21
1st Resistance: 80.89
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USOIL BREAKOUT ON CHANNEL INDICATING SELL-OFF USOIL confirmed a bearish breakout on the bullish channel created under the daily timeframe today. Here I personally expect to see a strong selling back towards the bottom level of support while we have a resistance holding down the pressure on top close to $80. Here we are expecting bearish momentum to be built towards the $70-67 target region.
Israel strikes Iran againIsrael retaliated against Iran overnight, which saw the price of WTI crude oil jump nearly 4.5% before giving up some of its gains. Per media reports, three large explosions were heard in the country's south, and the U.S. official announced Israel successfully hit some of the targets, something Iran was quick to deny. Without regard for damages, it is already apparent the two adversaries entered a spiral of reciprocatory aggression. Unless there is any form of effective mediation between the two sides (which is, by the way, unlikely), the conflict could enter a stage of regional war, with Israel potentially fighting on multiple fronts. Needless to say, this has enormous implications for the region, which is responsible for a significant portion of the global oil supply and, thus, influences oil prices (at this point, the only counterweights for the rising price of oil could be OPEC’s willingness to bring production online, protraction of global economic slowdown, and potentially more releases of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves by the USA).
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish (stalling/turning neutral)
Weekly time frame = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bearish Outlook & Breakout 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil formed a huge head and shoulders pattern on a daily.
With the release of the yesterday's fundamentals, the market dropped
and sharply violated its neckline and a solid rising trend line.
2 broken structures compose the expanding supply zone.
I will look for shorting from there,
anticipating a bearish continuation at least to 77.8 support.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
CRUDE OIL Bullish Heist Plan to BuyDear Oil Robbers/Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist Bullish side of OIL Barrels based on Thief Trading style Analysis. My dear Robbers U can enter at the any point above my entered area, Our target is Dangerous Red Zone its Strong Resistance Zone. My dear Robbers please book some partial money it will manage our risk. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Loot and escape near the target 🎯
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CRUDE OIL Bullish Side Robbery Plan to make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist Bullish side of Crude oil Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan i have mentioned with target in the chart focus on Long entry, Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous area market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend change /Strong Pullback happens at the level Bear Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of Powerful dynamic resistance level, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next target.
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Crude Oil WTI - Long Trade IdeaHello hello,
My bias is still long. I will link that analysis to this one. So, I am looking for a continuation to the upside.
At the moment, everything looks good for a continuation to the upside. The Monthly candle closed above the annotated Monthly SIBI, and a new Monthly BISI was created. What i'm looking now is for price to come into any of those areas, but it will likely enter both. I have annotated 2 POIs for a trade on the Daily timeframes. My "R2F" and "Megaphone" setups are ready to go.
The stoplosses illustrated are standard, so the safest thing to do is to wait for confirmation before solidifying a stoploss. The Monthly candle only JUST opened, and as we know the wicks can paint outside of the lines.
Anyway, I'm looking forward to see how this pans out. I don't usually trade Oil, but futures are generally cleaner than some Forex pairs like USDJPY.
- R2F
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to 50% Fibonacci supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 82.33 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 80.50 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 84.67 which is an overlap resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.