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Navigating the Oil Market: Current Trends and Future OutlookNavigating the Oil Market: Current Trends and Future Outlook The recent two-week rally in WTI oil prices seems to have hit a pause, prompting a closer examination of the US oil market, China's economic activities, and the global supply side of the oil sector. In this report, we will delve into the factors influencing WTI prices, evaluate its future trajectory, and conclude with a technical analysis. US Oil Market Dynamics: Last week's discussion highlighted disruptions in the US oil market due to extreme weather conditions. While Baker Hughes reported a modest increase in active oil rigs, suggesting a recovery in production, conflicting data emerged. API reported a substantial drawdown in US oil inventories, whereas EIA indicated an increase, signaling ambiguity in the market. The potential resurgence of US oil production may exert pressure on prices if the rise in inventories aligns with increased production. Chinese Economic Indicators: Despite China's stimulus package, January's PMI indicators for the manufacturing sector present a mixed picture. NBS manufacturing PMI inched higher but remained below 50, signifying economic contraction. Conversely, Caixin manufacturing PMI dipped slightly but stayed above 50, indicating marginal economic growth. These conflicting signals raise concerns about China's ability to boost oil demand significantly, potentially influencing oil prices. International Supply Side and OPEC: OPEC's oil output experienced its most substantial monthly decline in six months, primarily attributed to disruptions in Libya. While Libyan production is expected to rebound, OPEC's ongoing discussions on planned production cuts could sway the market. Today's meeting may not alter production plans, but any deviation could impact oil prices, considering the market has factored in the current production outlook. Technical Analysis: Examining the daily chart, oil prices dropped after retesting the previous resistance area below $80, coinciding with the 200-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Economic data discussed earlier suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend, with a retest of the May 2023 lows on the horizon. Conclusion: As WTI oil prices navigate through a complex landscape of supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment, a nuanced approach is essential for traders and investors alike. The intricate interplay of these elements will shape the oil market's future trajectory. Our preference Short positions below 76.50 with targets at 68.00 & 65.00 in extension.
TVC:USOILShort
by FOREXN1
1
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - wti crude oilGood evening and i hope you are well. Here my commentary from last week: The bulls got their big breakout and we made 4.65 points last week. The next obvious target is 80 where i expect sideways movement. I also don’t think we can get there without a pullback first. Target for that pb is around 76.5 - 77. We can also just trade sideways in a tighter range but i think a retest of the 2023-12 high is an obvious magnet. Bull case: Last weeks bull case was good for Globex open on Monday and that marked the high of the week and we sold off 7.5 points. Bulls have nothing until market finds clear support and that will probably take some days. Arguments for bulls are 2 trend lines, one we already touched Friday and bounced a bit but weak arguments at best. At 70 should be big resistance but this sell off is very strong. Bulls need to keep this above 70.60 for this to be a higher low. Bear case: Big bear surprise for me this week. But since we are at support lines and bears did not print a lower low, i lean neutral. Bears need a break below and if they can get it, chances of a measured move down rise. Target could be 65 but let’s take this one by one. First target is 70. outlook last week: “sideways to down for a pullback but market is clearly always in long for now. so pullbacks will fail and we trade higher to at least 79.5 or 80.” → Well, pretty decent for about 2 seconds after Globex open on Monday. Big bear surprise for me. Bad outlook. short term: Sideways to down - Market needs to find support and i doubt it’s the bull channel. Big support is probably around 70. medium-long term: Sideways until clear break of range between 70-80
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Geopolitical tensions are starting to weigh on oil pricesThe United States’ decision to conduct airstrikes earlier this week against targets in Somalia and Yemen provoked more aggression from Houthi rebels, who engaged in multiple new attacks against commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Following that, Yemen’s rebels claimed a successful hit to the U.S. military ship, which the United States quickly denied. Despite months of ongoing attacks on ships passing through the strait, there have not been any reports of casualties. However, the odds of a fatal tragedy are growing together with the increasing intensity of Houthi’s attacks. Such an event would likely elevate tensions to a new level and put significant pressure on the United States government to act. In the scope of this worsening crisis, the odds of higher oil prices are climbing. On the technical side, some developments suggest oil might be prime for a run higher as well; the MACD crossed into bullish territory on the daily graph, and RSI and Stochastic continue to build bullish structures. Nonetheless, one thing to note is that the ADX is still relatively low, hinting the trend is very weak. Therefore, it might be proper to wait and see whether the USOIL manages to close above $76.14 for at least two consecutive days before committing to a bullish outlook. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the MACD breaking above the midpoint on the daily time frame. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of the USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs. An important level to watch is support at $76.14. If the USOIL manages to make another two consecutive closes above this level, it will bolster the bullish odds. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
2
WTI OIL Technical pull-back. Buy on these levels.WTI Oil (USOIL) gave us the most optimal buy entry last time we made a call on it (January 22, see chart below) and almost touched the 79.40 Target before pulling back: The pattern that has emerged is a Channel Up that started since the December 13 2023 bottom. The recent top at 79.30 is a technical Higher High for the Channel Up and the rejection has started the new Bearish Leg to a Lower Low (bottom of Channel Up). However the price may not pull-back that far this time as the 4H RSI is testing its Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding since the December 06 2023 RSI Low and has already given 3 contact points for buy entries. As a result this is where we are placing our 1st buy, with which we are targeting 83.00, being the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the Top and right under Resistance 2 (83.60). That will establish a new 'diverging' Channel Up (dotted lines), that will aim for a similar Higher High range (+12.15%) as the January 28 High. Since however the price already broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we have to consider the possibility of a lower decline, which can indeed be as low as the bottom of the Channel Up, on a -9.00% decline (such as the January 03 Low). We believe though that in order to establish the new medium-term uptrend, the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) has to hold, so most likely this is the potential max downside extension. With that long, we will target the top of the (blue) Channel Up at 81.00, a little lower than the previous +14.40% Bullish Leg. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
Oil’s Tug-of-War: Iran Tensions vs. Evergrande Oil’s Tug-of-War: Iran Tensions vs. Evergrande On Wednesday, WTI crude futures dropped below $77 per barrel, undoing a 1.4% increase from the prior session, all while the U.S. readies itself to address a lethal attack on its troops in the Middle East. Perhaps traders are concerned more about the liquidation of China Evergrande, raising worries about the overall Chinese economy. There is fear that this uncertainty in China could lead to a decrease in demand for crude oil. However, there is a question of whether traders might be underestimating the potential for U.S. responses to the lethal attacks to escalate tensions or lead to a conflict with Iran. Despite President Biden expressing a desire to avoid a wider war in the Middle East, there are concerns about the unpredictable outcomes of such military actions. The Guardian predicts dire consequences if there is direct American military retaliation against Iran. This could prolong the Gaza conflict, trigger a Hezbollah attack on Israel, escalate conflicts in Iraq and Syria, and destabilize friendly regimes in Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf. Additionally, such actions could inadvertently assist China in pursuing its anti-democratic geopolitical ambitions and provide justification for Russia's aggression in Ukraine.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
WTI Oil H4 | Potential Bullish BounceWTI oil (USOIL) could fall towards a pullback support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 77.081 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 75.900 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 79.750 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
Hellena | Oil (4H): Long to resistance area 79.37 (Wave C).Dear Colleagues, after a long analysis, I suggest that the upward movement is not over yet. At the moment I suppose that the price is in wave C and should update the maximum of wave A 76.00, but to do this is not easy. The price should meet resistance and I see such a level - it is the resistance area at 79.37. I suppose that the price can make a small correction before the upward movement. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
TVC:USOILLong
by Hellena_Trade
3
Crude oil 4H Symetrical triangle, breakout of a down channelOn this 4H chart for Crude oil you can notice that the price has been moving in a very obvious down trend channel for a while. Recently the price broke out of it and started consolidating above the down tren resistance ( now a support ). In the proces the price formed a symetrical triangle. It is important to observe this triangle in the following hours as it can provide a breakout. Usually, when having a symetriacal triangle, it's better for the pattern to break in the direction of the movement that lead into it. If you observe the first green line, you will notice that this was an increase. If the pattern produces a Buy entry, this will also align with the breakout from this down trend channel. If the price starts increasing, it can encounter the first resistance around 75.80 - 76, this is the current major high point. If the price manages to surpass it, this will create a new bullish market structure and it can set the for a new bullish trend. The price can also correct from it. If it does, it can retrace to around 73 - 74 before getting the chance to bounce to the up side again. The development in the following days will be important not only for this setup, but possibly for the next 2 - 3 weeks. If the price breaks above the 76, the new bullish market structure can send it on an up trend. If the price breaks bellow the triangle and it goes back in the channel, then it can continue on a down trend.
TVC:USOILLong
by RTED_Investing
WTI H4 | Approaching pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 75.905 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 74.600 which is a level that lies under a pullback support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 78.944 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
Crude oil could rally from $72Price action has been very choppy on the daily crude oil chart, but if we place a line chart over the top is shows prices are trying to break out of a small triangle / pennant. Whilst these are usually expected to be continuation pattern, they can also make decent reversal pattern. And this case, we've see prices hold above $70 on a closing basis, and the lower candle wicks made a series of higher lows. Momentum is now turning higher. Bulls could seek dips down to $72 (yesterday's low) or a break of its high, with an upside target around $78, near the 200-day MA and 100-day EMA.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
AFTER FILLING GAP, PIONEER NATURAL RES. NOW TARGETING ABOVE 45!The gap-down created with PXD on January 08, was filled last trading week with strong bullish momentum and high volume, indicating the potential of the stock price to test above 245! N.B! - USOIL price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #pxd #pioneer #usoil #crudeoil #wti #brentoil
PLong
by BullBearMkt
OIL: Red Sea tension could support Oil price in short term🔴 Oil jumped as the US and its allies launched airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, retaliating for attacks on ships in the Red Sea that have imperiled flows of fuel and goods through the vital waterway. President Joe Biden said strikes had been conducted against a number of targets used by the Iran-backed group, with US officials saying radar sites and missile launchers were hit. A tanker industry group said military forces in the region were advising ships to avoid a key chokepoint near Yemen. The Houthis said all US and UK interests are now legitimate targets. 🔴 The main upside risk for prices concerns Iran and whether it’s drawn directly into the conflict, which could threaten oil supply in a region that produces a third of the world’s crude. The war-risk premium had previously been easing amid ample output from non-OPEC+ producers and slowing demand growth. 🔴 From our point of view, geopolitical tensions could support Oil Price in the short term, and from a technical point of view, our first Target is just below $80. Trade with care Like | Share | Comment
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
9
#202405 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood evening and i hope you are well. wti crude oil Here my commentary from last week: If you have read the gold one, this one is self explanatory i think. Market is compressing prices and will soon break out. Which direction? Guess. Your’s is as good as mine. I won’t say more about it. Breakout will come soon, so if you haven’t played the range so far, you should not start now because the odds of a breakout rise daily. The bulls got their big breakout and we made 465 points last week. The next obvious target is 80 where i expect sideways movement. I also don’t think we can get there without a pullback first. Target for that pb is around 76.5 - 77. We can also just trade sideways in a tighter range but i think a retest of the 2023-12 high is an obvious magnet. Bull case: Clear breakout of the triangle and they want a measured move up to 84. First more reachable target is the 50% pullback from the big bear trend which started 2023-10 and that is around 79 and where i expect more sideways trading. If bulls can keep this above the daily 20ema, i expect they will go for the measured move target of the triangle which we broke out of, to around 84. Bear case: They see this as a leg inside a trading range 68 - 80 and there are 2 potential bull channels and we are at the top of both. Bears want a strong reversal and trading back to the tight bull channel bottom at around 76. They also see 3 clear pushes up inside that channel and have reasonable arguments to short up here and make bulls want to take profits. outlook last week: “neutral (means sideways)” → bad outlook, since we got a big bull breakout short term: sideways to down for a pullback but market is clearly always in long for now. so pullbacks will fail and we trade higher to at least 79.5 or 80. medium-long term: odds for higher prices (up until maybe 90) raised significantly but i want to see market trading above 80 first. above 80 i turn full bull for 90 or higher.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
CRUDE OIL BULISH STRUCTURE FORMATIONcrude oil last trading week completed its bullish structure, thus indicating the potential for price to exceed $90 in the coming days. The market has witnessed the formation of a bullish structure characterised by higher-low and higher-high, signifying a positive momentum in the oil market. N.B! - USOIL price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #usoil #crudeoil #wti #brentoil
TVC:USOILLong
by BullBearMkt