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WTI highest in more than 3 weeksTVC:USOIL hit its highest level in more than three months in early trading on Monday (January 13) in Asian markets, continuing last Friday's rise on market expectations that the United States will strengthen its measures. sanctions on Russia's oil industry, which will result in Russian supplies in China and India coming under pressure; In addition, the nonfarm payrolls report also boosted market confidence in the growth of crude oil demand in some parts of the US and Europe also stimulated winter crude oil fuel demand. The Biden administration on Friday imposed the broadest package of sanctions targeting Russia's oil and gas revenues, a move aimed at giving Kyiv and Trump's new team leverage to reach a peace deal in Ukraine. This move is aimed at cutting Russia's revenue to continue the war. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in Russia in February 2022, the war has caused tens of thousands of casualties and reduced many cities to rubble. Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on X that the measures announced last Friday would "deal a big blow" to Moscow. He added that "The less money Russia gets from oil... the sooner peace will be restored." US job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and a stable labor market at the end of the year will boost crude oil demand. Friday's closely watched Labor Department jobs report also showed fewer long-term unemployed people in December and the average length of unemployment shortened. Increases in these indicators have previously raised concerns about a labor market downturn. December employment rose 256,000, the most since March. Data for October and November were revised to show 8,000 fewer jobs were added than previously reported. The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% in November. The average unemployment rate last year was 4.0% and in 2023 it will be 3.6%. In Friday's report, the government also released revisions to the past five years of seasonally adjusted household survey data, from which the unemployment rate is calculated. With last Friday's jobs data settling in, this week will see a lot of US data and statements from Federal Reserve officials. US President-elect Donald Trump's team is expected to make many comments before the inauguration ceremony on January 20. China's trade data, economic activity and GDP will also be the focus of the market in general and the Crude Oil market in particular. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL continues its uptrend after breaking through the rising price channel noticed by readers in the previous issue. And currently the upward momentum is limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, once WTI crude oil breaks above this level it can continue to increase further with the target then around 82.75USD in the short term. However, the Relative Strength Index shows that the RSI is operating in the overbought area, which is a signal that there is not much room for price increases ahead, and also signals a possible downward correction. happen. However, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil is currently bullish with support from the trend price channel, EMA21 and the nearest support level at the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. As long as WTI crude oil remains above the price channel and EMA21, any price declines should only be considered short-term corrections, notable levels will also be listed as follows. Support: 76.33 – 75.20 – 74.61USD Resistance: 78.98USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
1
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to area of 50% Fibo lvl of 71.500. Colleagues, I believe that price is ending a five-wave upward movement and a correction is about to begin. I expect the price to renew the nearest high and reach the area of 75.500, after which it will start a correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level of 71.500. It may well be that the price will immediately start a downward movement and it will mean that wave “C” is already completed. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
16
Oil Algo Trading Strategy Lost Its Edge?Oil Algorithmic Traders Loosen Grip on Market After Back-to-Back Annual Losses A Shift in the Oil Trading Landscape In the intricate world of oil trading, where fortunes are made and lost on the fluctuations of prices, a significant shift is underway. Algorithmic traders, the computer-driven entities that have come to dominate the market, are pulling back after enduring two consecutive years of losses.1 This retreat marks a notable change in the oil market dynamics, potentially paving the way for a more balanced and predictable trading environment. The Rise of Algorithmic Trading Over the past decade, algorithmic trading, also known as automated or high-frequency trading, has revolutionized financial markets, and the oil market is no exception.2 These sophisticated systems employ complex algorithms and statistical models to identify and exploit trading opportunities at speeds that are impossible for human traders to match.3 Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), a prominent class of algorithmic traders, specialize in trend-following strategies.4 They capitalize on market trends by buying when prices are rising and selling when prices are falling. Their ability to execute trades rapidly and efficiently has made them a dominant force in the oil market, often amplifying price swings and influencing market direction.5 The Tide Turns for Algorithmic Traders However, the reign of algorithmic traders in the oil market has faced a significant setback. According to Bridgeton Research Group, which tracks computer-generated trades, CTAs have posted consecutive annual losses for the first time in more than a decade.6 This downturn can be attributed to several factors, including increased market volatility, unexpected geopolitical events, and the inherent limitations of trend-following strategies in rapidly changing market conditions. As a result of these losses, CTAs are reducing their exposure to crude oil.7 It is estimated that they have decreased the weight of crude in their portfolios to a mere 2% compared to 4% in July 2024.8 This pullback is softening their impact on market movements and reducing their share of open interest, signaling a significant shift in the oil trading landscape.9 The Impact on the Oil The retreat of algorithmic traders from the oil market has several potential implications: 1. Reduced Market Market Volatility: Algorithmic trading, particularly trend-following strategies, has been known to exacerbate price swings in the oil market.10 With their reduced presence, the market may experience less volatility and more gradual price movements. 2. Increased Influence of Fundamental Factors: As the influence of algorithmic trading wanes, fundamental factors such as supply and demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical events may play a more prominent role in determining oil prices. 3. Opportunities for Traditional Traders: The pullback of algorithmic traders could create opportunities for traditional traders who rely on fundamental analysis and market expertise. With less competition from high-speed algorithms, these traders may find it easier to identify and capitalize on profitable trading opportunities. 4. A More Balanced Market: The reduced dominance of algorithmic trading could lead to a more balanced and efficient oil market, where a wider range of factors and participants determines prices. The Future of Algorithmic Trading in Oil While algorithmic traders are currently taking a step back from the oil market, it is unlikely that they will disappear entirely. These sophisticated systems still offer significant advantages in terms of speed, efficiency, and data analysis. As technology continues to advance, algorithmic trading is expected to remain an integral part of the financial landscape. However, the recent losses serve as a reminder that algorithmic trading is not without its risks. These systems are only as good as the algorithms and data they are based on. In rapidly changing and unpredictable markets, even the most sophisticated algorithms can struggle to generate consistent profits. Conclusion The retreat of algorithmic traders from the oil market marks a significant turning point. After years of dominating the trading landscape, these computer-driven entities are pulling back, potentially paving the way for a more balanced and less volatile market. While the long-term impact remains to be seen, this shift underscores the dynamic nature of financial markets and the importance of adapting to changing conditions.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
WTI - The fate of oil with Trump's policies!WTI oil is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable risk reward will be provided for us. Being in the supply zone of oil will provide us with the possibility of selling it with reimport at a suitable risk. The price of US crude oil futures (WTI) reached $75 per barrel, marking its highest level in the past three months. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), US oil inventories dropped by 4 million barrels last week. If this reduction is confirmed by official data, inventories would reach their lowest levels since 2014. The severe cold in the United States has increased fuel demand and heightened risks of production disruptions, while Europe is also facing harsh winter conditions. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s tighter sanctions on Iran, combined with a global supply reduction and persistent cold weather, could pave the way for further increases in oil prices. Last year, crude oil prices declined due to weak demand from China and oversupply. Market analysts predict that oil prices will remain under pressure in 2025. In its November report, the International Energy Agency projected that global oil demand would grow by less than one million barrels per day in 2025, a significant decline compared to the two-million-barrel-per-day increase seen in 2023. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) forecasts that Brent crude prices will drop to $70 per barrel this year due to expectations of increased oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries, which could offset global consumption growth. In a December note, BMI stated that the global oil market would likely face an oversupply in the first half of 2025 as new and substantial production from the US, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil enters the market. However, if OPEC+ implements its voluntary production cut plans, this oversupply could exert even more downward pressure on prices. BMI also highlighted that the outlook for global demand in 2025 remains unclear, stating, “Global demand for oil and gas continues to face uncertainty, with sustained economic growth and rising fuel consumption potentially offset by the impacts of trade wars, inflation, and declining demand in developed markets.” Additionally, the recent disruption of Russian gas flows to several European countries by Ukraine on the first day of the new year has added further uncertainty to global markets. As long as this situation persists, gas prices are expected to remain elevated. Citi Bank also noted that colder weather in the US and Asia during the remaining winter months could keep prices at high levels. According to the Financial Times, Donald Trump, who will assume office on January 20, is set to take control of one of the most powerful economic governance tools, capable of significantly enhancing America’s influence abroad. This tool is unmatched since the Cold War. However, the US economic framework remains flawed due to poor coordination and conflicting political priorities, presenting Trump with significant challenges in developing and implementing it. Unlike Joe Biden’s efforts to create a multifaceted geopolitical approach similar to China’s, the US economic framework suffers from issues in coordination and goal-setting.
TVC:USOIL
by Ali_PSND
WTI Oil H4 | Falling towards an overlap supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 72.65 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 71.20 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support. Take profit is at 74.85 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
1
WTI OIL Critical crossroads on the 16-month Resistance.WTI Oil (USOIL) is having a strong rally in the past 30 days following the rebound on the 2-year Support Zone. This Zone has contained all 1W candle closings above it, so this rebound is coming as a natural technical reaction for buyers but it is about to face a critical Resistance Cluster. First is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but the most important level is the 16-month Lower Highs trend-line that started in late September 2023. Technically, as long as it holds, the price is more likely to get rejected now back towards the Support Zone, so at the moment we are bearish with a 68.00 Target. If the Lower Highs trend-line breaks and WTI closes a 1W candle above it, we don't expect the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) to offer much Resistance, so we will take the small loss on the short and switch to buying. Our Target in that case will be Resistance 1 at 84.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
1
Waiting for Clarity: Insights on Oil and the 70 Put OptionsLet’s talk about WTI oil for a moment. In the upcoming monthly expiration series set for January 15, there’s some interesting action happening with the 70 put options. Traders aren’t just dumping these puts; they’re actively reselling them, and there are definitely buyers stepping in. What’s even more intriguing is that the same 70 puts are being picked up in the next options series as well. Now, if you look at the charts, it seems like prices have finally broken out of that range they’ve been stuck in for a while and are gearing up to move higher. With this kind of sentiment in play, I’m going to hold off on making any buys for now and wait for some clearer signals before jumping in.
TVC:USOILShort
by ClashChartsTeam
WTI reaches key resistance zoneCrude oil prices have been stealthily rising over the past couple of weeks, but now is the real test as prices have reached some important resistance levels. As per the chart, WTI faces a band of resistance from its bearish trend line, 200-day moving average, and prior support and resistance, all converging around the psychologically important $75.00 level. Specifically, the resistance range comes in between $74.55 to $77.50. Yesterday's bearish price candle was the first sign of a potential reversal, although we haven't yet seen any downside follow-through. Support comes in around $71.50, the base of the recent breakout. Below that, $70.00 is the next downside target, followed by the recent lows. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
TVC:USOILShort
by FOREXcom
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to overlap supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 72.65 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 71.10 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 75.13 which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
WTI - 2025 Q1 Forecast - Technical Analysis & Trading Ideas!💡 Midterm forecast: (Daily Time-frame) While the price is above the support 64.00, resumption of uptrend is expected. Technical analysis: A trough is formed in daily chart at 66.51 on 11/18/2024, so more gains to resistance(s) 75.44 and maximum to Major Resistance (77.92) is expected. Take Profits: 68.80 72.27 75.44 77.92 80.10 83.96 87.00 93.80 100.80 109.19 126.35 💡 Short Term forecast: (H4 Time-frame): The bullish wave is expected to continue as long as the price is above the strong Support at 70.53 Forecast: 1- Correction wave toward the Buy Zone 2- Another Upward Impulse wave toward Higher TPs SL: Below 70.53 __________________________________________________________________ ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView, . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 BOOST button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! 🙏 Your Support is appreciated! Let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Have a successful week, ForecastCity Support Team
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by ForecastCity
8
Oil Bulls Go for the Break into Yearly OpenOil prices are threatening a major breakout here after clearing resistance yesterday at the objective 2024 yearly open near 72.14 . The focus is on todays close with respect to the 61.8% retracement at 73.90 . A daily close above would keep the focus on a possible rally towrads the 78.6% retracement at 75.89 and the October high-close at 77.25 - note the highlighted slope confluence (look for a larger reaction there IF reached). Initial support back at 72.14 with bullish invalidation now raised to 71.02 . MB
TVC:USOIL
by FOREXcom
Will Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Redefine Global Energy Markets?In a world where geopolitical tensions and energy markets dance an intricate waltz, the latest developments surrounding Iran's nuclear program have emerged as a pivotal factor in global oil dynamics. The Biden administration's deliberation of military options against Iranian atomic facilities has introduced a new variable into the complex equation of international energy markets, forcing investors and analysts to reassess their traditional market models. The strategic significance of the Middle East's oil infrastructure, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, hangs in delicate balance as diplomatic chess moves unfold. With approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply flowing through this crucial chokepoint, the stakes extend far beyond regional politics, touching every corner of the global economy. Market participants have begun incorporating these heightened risks into their pricing models, reflecting a new reality where geopolitical considerations carry as much weight as traditional supply and demand metrics. The energy sector stands at a crossroads where strategic petroleum reserves, investment strategies, and risk management protocols face unprecedented challenges. Portfolio managers and energy traders must navigate this complex landscape while balancing short-term volatility against long-term strategic positioning. As the situation continues to evolve, the global oil market serves as a mirror reflecting the broader implications of international security dynamics, challenging conventional wisdom about energy market fundamentals and forcing a reevaluation of traditional risk assessment models.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by UDIS_View
Brent - good start of oil in the new year!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. On the ceiling of the ascending channel, we will look for oil selling positions. In case of a valid break of the $75 range, we can see the continuation of the downward trend. On the other hand, within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. Over the past three months, the Brent crude oil market has emerged as the largest commodity market in the world, with a daily trading volume of $75.2 billion. The credit rating agency Fitch has stated that geopolitical tensions may increase volatility in the global oil and gas sector. The agency expects global oil demand in 2025 to grow at a similar pace to 2024, although this growth is likely to be slower than in 2022 and 2023. President Joe Biden is reportedly planning to impose a 20-year ban on leasing public lands for oil and gas exploration in Nevada. According to Fox News, this move is being considered in the final weeks of Biden’s presidency, just ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration. This prohibition would prevent companies from leasing federal lands in the region for oil and gas exploration or extraction activities. As reported by Axios, Biden has been reviewing potential options for a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This action would only be considered if Iran takes significant steps toward building nuclear weapons before January 20. Reports indicate that Iran has enriched uranium to 60%, which is close to the 90% threshold required for weapons-grade material. Additionally, advancements in Iran’s centrifuge technology suggest the country could achieve this level within a matter of days. However, reports also caution that developing a nuclear warhead would still require at least one year. These assessments come as Biden approaches the end of his term and Donald Trump prepares to assume the presidency. Trump’s approach to Iran and its nuclear program is a topic of great interest, given his record during his first term. Previously, Trump adopted a “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran and withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The question now arises whether he will pursue a similar course of action or take a different approach in his new administration.
BLACKBULL:BRENTShort
by Ali_PSND