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Crude oil fluctuates today The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has killed more than 1,600 people! Crude oil rose more than 4% and may continue to rise in the future. After the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, it was in a range, with the lowest of 84.6 and the highest of 87.2 that day. The daily line closed at 86.3. From the daily line, oil prices will continue to rise. The top continues to pay attention to the breakthrough of 87. On the four-hour line, the Bollinger Track is parallel. , showing a volatile upward trend, the hourly line, the Bollinger Band narrowed in parallel, and oil prices will remain range-bound in the short term. In summary, intraday operations are dominated by shocks, let’s first look at the 84-88 range.
TVC:USOILLong
by Jerome-Leon
WTI Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis + Trading Plan WTI Crude Snaps Two-Day Slump Amid Shifting Global Dynamics and Weaker USD The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil benchmark showed signs of resilience, bouncing back from a two-day decline to reach $82.85 per barrel, marking a 0.40% gain. This uptick came as the US Dollar (USD) experienced a retreat, ending its 12-week rally. While robust US job growth figures impressed with a 336,000 rise, hints of a potential pause on rate hikes by Federal Reserve officials added an element of uncertainty. Russia's decision to lift its diesel export ban and a dip in US oil rigs further complicated WTI's supply-demand dynamics. WTI Benefits from USD Weakness and Russian Supply Shifts At the time of writing, WTI was trading at $82.85 per barrel, with modest gains of 0.40%. The resurgence in oil prices was attributed to the broader weakness in the US Dollar (USD). USD buyers booked profits ahead of the weekend, causing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to post weekly losses, ending its 12-week rally. While recent US economic data was supportive of the US Dollar, the overextended uptrend indicated a potential mean reversion. Notably, US job growth in September soared by 336,000, a figure that exceeded estimates and the previous month's data. Federal Reserve officials have remained relatively reserved in response to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could justify the need for higher interest rates. However, San Francisco's Fed President Mary Daly suggested that the recent increase in Treasury yields might already be addressing some of the Fed's concerns. She noted, "The recent rise in Treasury yields is doing some of the work for the Fed, and if that doesn't reverse and inflation continues to cool, the Fed can leave rates on hold." Russia's Move Eases Supply Concerns Russia played a crucial role in providing some relief to oil prices as it lifted its ban on diesel exports, particularly for supplies delivered to ports via pipelines. This decision had a cushioning effect on WTI's upward movement, as it introduced a potential increase in supply. On the front of oil data, the number of US oil rigs decreased by five to reach 497 during the week, marking the lowest level seen since February 2022. This development, reported by the energy services firm Baker Hughes, added to the evolving dynamics in the oil market. As WTI navigates a complex landscape of supply dynamics, global economic headwinds, and shifting USD trends, the oil market remains a focal point for investors and analysts alike. The balance between supply and demand, coupled with external factors like currency movements, will continue to influence WTI's price trajectory in the near future. Our preference Short positions below 91.30 with targets at 77.50 & 74.00 in extension. When the price Will reach the 74.00 Extension target , than : Go Long.
TVC:USOIL
by FOREXN1
12
Dirty practices of corporate forecasts portrayed in the mediaOn Tuesday, we touched on the subject of corporate forecasts in the oil market portrayed in the media. In fact, we remarked how the recent announcements of ultra-bullish forecasts were very reminiscent of the 2022 oil market top and that we were pretty skeptical about the rally's sustainability (though we warned about this on a different platform three weeks sooner). Fast forward to today, and we can see that oil is down from nearly $95 a week ago to less than $84 today (down more than 12%). With this price action following recent upgrades for the oil price by various financial entities, we would like to point out a few similar news articles in the past, which often preceded the trend reversal to the opposite direction of the forecast. While we can only speculate whether it is intentional or not, we have seen these practices taking place for years, with big players coming to tell retail investors to buy near the market top or sell near the market bottom. The following presentation aims to advocate that one should always do their own research rather than rely on the opinion of others whose true intent or trading strategy is unknown. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows some of JP Morgan’s forecasts in the past year or so, written as articles published by various media outlets (keep in mind that we are not showing all of the forecasts; there were some that were actually fulfilled). Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays more corporate forecasts from JP Morgan. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral (turning slightly bearish) Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
20
Crude Oil (WTI)This looks like it is poised to head back into a well established $70-$80 range (and then some!). Anticipated long-term USD strength, as well as extended Global economic weakness bodes well for an enduring price weakness outlook. Technically, Crude is at a major pivot, both, at the top of a rising daily channel, as well as at the top of a descending weekly channel trend line, resulting in a significant confluence region - both of those having price-negative connotation. The Daily (main signal); SHORT on any reversal! ... and the 240 min. (secondary signal);
NYMEX:CL1!
by Nemo_Confidat
2
Oil (CL) Aggro/Oversold Fade BUYQuick take/analysis, but consider scooping some low-risk crude contracts here (break above 84.84). Better demand zones are lower, but we've had a sizable downdraft into buy areas + are testing a key support/resistance area (~84-85), so those traders may be at our backs. The US dollar has finally taken a pause at the supply zone we ID’d in posts from earlier this week/last week, so that may help commodity, including CL, longs. Keep this one a tight leash; the bounce we’ve had thus far has been tepid, a micro timeframe higher high/higher low hasn’t yet been put in , and daily/weekly “demand” is lower still (low-80s/upper-70s). That said, CL is certainly a trade to put on your radar. Given the technical structure of the recent selloff, consider taking any profits at 1:1, then 86, 87, and 88+. Again, better buys are lower, but start paying attention/stalking longs as remaining profit margin for short sellers is a lot smaller than it was at the beginning of the week (though there is still some downside risk)! Happy trading! Jon @ LionHart Trading
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JHartCharts
Crude oil returns to 100 The latest consolidation in oil prices appears to be over, with both Brent and WTI posting solid gains. There are currently no signs of increased supply from major producers, and economic data continues to support the idea of more growth. Crude oil has now reached 95.04, which has exceeded our expectation of 93.5. Under the current market conditions, crude oil will slowly rise to 100. Now the trading strategy is pulling back and rising slowly. The range of 93.5-94.8 continues to rise.
CLong
by Anthony-Ryan
4
WTI Bullish OutlookSince March 2020, crude oil prices have been on the rise with simple Fibonacci 38.2% pull backs along the way ... BUT nothing appears to be able to stop what's coming next. Per barrel is currently hovering around $90 but the gas pumps and tempers will exceed the charts as we move into mid-2024 on the heels of the 2024 election. Also included the Elliott waves 1 thru 5 showing the 38.2% retraces with the mid wave showing a perfect 61.8% retrace of it's prior price action. There's no guarantee that the 1.618% extension will occur so the 1.414% at the $180 price point appears to be more probable. NFA DYOR ... comments welcome.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by kerdirks
2
WTI prints key reversal day ahead of FOMCWhilst we retain our view that oil prices could be headed for $100 further out, the trend seems to have hit a speed bump over the near-term. WTI broke above $90 with ease yet faltered around $95 with a shooting car candle with high volume (which makes it a potential key reversal day). A bearish divergence has also formed with the RSI (2) after it reached overbought. With the potential for the Fed to be more hawkish than expected, it could provide the catalyst for a pullback on WTI. A break below $90 confirms the near-term reversal is underway, with $87 making an initial target around the volume node from its preceding leg higher. $85 could also provide support around the August highs, which might tempt dip buyers more focussed on the fundamentals currently supporting higher oil prices.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
1
Crude oil in short supply The supply side of the global oil market continues to reduce production, and oil prices will continue to rise in the short term. Russia's fuel export ban announced last week has raised supply concerns and demand woes from future interest rate hikes. In the current context of the crude oil market, what needs attention is that once the Federal Reserve misjudges the U.S. economy, superimposes a rebound in inflation, and excessively raises interest rates, it may suppress crude oil prices. (The strength of the US dollar index has suppressed the prices of gold and crude oil) The overall trend of crude oil was very weak yesterday. After a slow rise during the day, it did not continue, but the US market fell sharply. The RSI technical indicator is bullish. Trading in the 89.5-91.5 range.
CLong
by Anthony-Ryan
WTI trade analysis Through the analysis of the hourly chart of crude oil, we know that the last trading day first rose, then fell and then rose again, forming a narrow concussion trend. Since crude oil rose from highs and fell back, it has been in the midst of a concussive adjustment. Last Friday, it was said that an adjustment is imminent. Once the heavy volume breaks through and stands firm at the 91.00 line, it will continue to fluctuate upward. In the early stage, the main bull funds intervened in the weak area at a high level and the market fluctuated all the way down. Currently, the main bull funds continue to flow in and there are signs of strength, indicating that the market is more likely to rise further. The short-term market continues to fluctuate and break through upwards based on the moving average system. In terms of operation, we continue to go high, low and long, focusing on going long on dips.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Jerome-Leon
WTI- The ideal price to buy for 100 targetThe month of September came with a very important break for WTI Oil, the rise above 85 figure, a price that kept WTI in a range since December last year. As was usually the case, after the break, the price accelerated to the upside and to the next important 92.50-93.00 zone resistance. Looking at the posted chart we can see that since July, the trend for Oil is strongly up and a continuation is to be expected. At this moment, the price is in a correction and this drop could offer traders a good opportunity to join the trend at better prices. Technically, the old congestion under 87 and above 85 (yellow square) should offer support and a good zone to buy. A reversal from this zone and back to 93 could lead to a break above the recent high and in this case, the road is clear for a test of 100 important psychological level. The structure is strongly bullish as long as the price is above the old resistance at 83
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by Mihai_Iacob
Crude oil fluctuates at high levels The supply side of the global oil market continues to reduce production, and oil prices continue to rise in the short term. A ban on fuel exports announced in Russia last week raised supply concerns and demand woes from future interest rate hikes. In the current context of the crude oil market, we need to pay attention to the fact that once the Federal Reserve misjudges the U.S. economy, superimposes a rebound in inflation, and excessively raises interest rates, it may suppress crude oil prices. The price of crude oil first rose last week and then adjusted to 90.55. It has closed positive for three consecutive weeks, and the long-term upward trend of crude oil is obvious. In the short term, crude oil is bullish when it is above 90.0 and bearish when it is below 90. The RSI technical indicator is bullish. The main transactions are range trading.
CLong
by Anthony-Ryan
Waiting for the bulls’ counterattack Oil prices fell back below the 10-day moving average, but the market is still bullish. The main reasons for the fall in crude oil prices may include the fact that the Saudi energy minister defended the production cut and claimed that extending the production cut was not to push up oil prices; the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. If the support level of crude oil does not break 87.6 and the resistance level does not break 90, it will continue to rise slowly in range trading.
CLong
by Anthony-Ryan
WTI Oil Prices Face Selling Pressure as Fed's Hawkish Stance...WTI Oil Prices Face Selling Pressure as Fed's Hawkish Stance Dominates Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are grappling with selling pressure, hovering around the $88.80 mark. The Federal Reserve's recent meeting and its hawkish stance have cast a shadow over oil prices, complicating the outlook for the energy market. Here are the key factors influencing WTI oil prices: 1. Fed's Influence on Oil Prices: Following the Federal Reserve's recent meeting, WTI oil prices experienced a continuation of selling pressure. The Fed opted to keep interest rates unchanged and issued hawkish comments. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank's commitment to achieving a 2% inflation target and expressed readiness to raise rates if deemed necessary. The prospect of higher interest rates in the US has a direct impact on oil prices. Elevated interest rates can raise borrowing costs, potentially slowing economic growth and reducing oil demand. 2. Saudi Arabia's Stance on Oil Production: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman clarified that OPEC's decision to reduce oil production was primarily motivated by a desire for market stability and not aimed at supporting Russia's actions in Ukraine. In recent weeks, both Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's top two oil exporters, announced voluntary production cuts. These measures have played a role in supporting WTI prices, with both countries committing to sustaining reduced oil output until the end of 2023. Saudi Arabia is set to limit its oil production to approximately 1.3 million barrels per day through the end of 2023. 3. Crude Oil Inventory Reports: Crude oil inventory reports have also influenced market sentiment. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a significant decline of nearly 5.25 million barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending September 15. This contrasted with the previous reading, which showed a rise of 1.174 million barrels. Market expectations had been leaning towards a 2.7 million-barrel decline. Additionally, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease of 2.135 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles during the same period, compared to a previous increase of 3.954 million barrels. The market had anticipated a drawdown of 2.2 million barrels. 4. Upcoming Economic Data Impact: Looking ahead, oil traders are closely monitoring several economic data releases that could significantly influence WTI prices. These include the US weekly Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Existing Home Sales, all scheduled for release later on Thursday. Furthermore, the preliminary US S&P Global PMI for September is expected to be released on Friday. These events will be of particular interest to traders as they could impact the USD-denominated WTI price. In conclusion, WTI oil prices are currently navigating a complex landscape, with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and global oil production dynamics playing key roles. The energy market will closely follow economic data releases for insights into the future direction of oil prices, offering trading opportunities for investors.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FOREXN1
12
OIL GO LONG Crude oil reached the 88 point three times yesterday and then fell back to today's opening point of 87.27. But support continues to rise. In my post yesterday, I talked about how crude oil will continue to try to break through 88 and then drop to range trading. Everything is as per my analysis. We have mentioned too many times regarding the macro data of crude oil production reduction, and currently we are waiting for the target of 90. A rebound zone will then appear. Thank you for your comments and likes.
CLong
by Anthony-Ryan