Crude oil in short supply
The supply side of the global oil market continues to reduce production, and oil prices will continue to rise in the short term. Russia's fuel export ban announced last week has raised supply concerns and demand woes from future interest rate hikes. In the current context of the crude oil market, what needs attention is that once the Federal Reserve misjudges the U.S. economy, superimposes a rebound in inflation, and excessively raises interest rates, it may suppress crude oil prices.
(The strength of the US dollar index has suppressed the prices of gold and crude oil)
The overall trend of crude oil was very weak yesterday. After a slow rise during the day, it did not continue, but the US market fell sharply.
The RSI technical indicator is bullish. Trading in the 89.5-91.5 range.
Wticrude
WTI trade analysis
Through the analysis of the hourly chart of crude oil, we know that the last trading day first rose, then fell and then rose again, forming a narrow concussion trend. Since crude oil rose from highs and fell back, it has been in the midst of a concussive adjustment. Last Friday, it was said that an adjustment is imminent. Once the heavy volume breaks through and stands firm at the 91.00 line, it will continue to fluctuate upward. In the early stage, the main bull funds intervened in the weak area at a high level and the market fluctuated all the way down. Currently, the main bull funds continue to flow in and there are signs of strength, indicating that the market is more likely to rise further. The short-term market continues to fluctuate and break through upwards based on the moving average system. In terms of operation, we continue to go high, low and long, focusing on going long on dips.
WTI- The ideal price to buy for 100 targetThe month of September came with a very important break for WTI Oil, the rise above 85 figure, a price that kept WTI in a range since December last year.
As was usually the case, after the break, the price accelerated to the upside and to the next important 92.50-93.00 zone resistance.
Looking at the posted chart we can see that since July, the trend for Oil is strongly up and a continuation is to be expected.
At this moment, the price is in a correction and this drop could offer traders a good opportunity to join the trend at better prices.
Technically, the old congestion under 87 and above 85 (yellow square) should offer support and a good zone to buy.
A reversal from this zone and back to 93 could lead to a break above the recent high and in this case, the road is clear for a test of 100 important psychological level.
The structure is strongly bullish as long as the price is above the old resistance at 83
Crude oil fluctuates at high levels
The supply side of the global oil market continues to reduce production, and oil prices continue to rise in the short term. A ban on fuel exports announced in Russia last week raised supply concerns and demand woes from future interest rate hikes. In the current context of the crude oil market, we need to pay attention to the fact that once the Federal Reserve misjudges the U.S. economy, superimposes a rebound in inflation, and excessively raises interest rates, it may suppress crude oil prices.
The price of crude oil first rose last week and then adjusted to 90.55. It has closed positive for three consecutive weeks, and the long-term upward trend of crude oil is obvious.
In the short term, crude oil is bullish when it is above 90.0 and bearish when it is below 90. The RSI technical indicator is bullish. The main transactions are range trading.
Crude Oil - Wave CountCrude oil - wave count
Crude appears bullish and may have begun its third wave.
Remember that if the price drops below the red line, it is considered invalid.
This information is for educational purposes only, so trade with caution.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1! NYMEX:CL1! TVC:USOIL CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE FX:USOILSPOT
Waiting for the bulls’ counterattack
Oil prices fell back below the 10-day moving average, but the market is still bullish.
The main reasons for the fall in crude oil prices may include the fact that the Saudi energy minister defended the production cut and claimed that extending the production cut was not to push up oil prices; the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged.
If the support level of crude oil does not break 87.6 and the resistance level does not break 90, it will continue to rise slowly in range trading.
WTI Oil Prices Face Selling Pressure as Fed's Hawkish Stance...WTI Oil Prices Face Selling Pressure as Fed's Hawkish Stance Dominates
Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are grappling with selling pressure, hovering around the $88.80 mark. The Federal Reserve's recent meeting and its hawkish stance have cast a shadow over oil prices, complicating the outlook for the energy market.
Here are the key factors influencing WTI oil prices:
1. Fed's Influence on Oil Prices:
Following the Federal Reserve's recent meeting, WTI oil prices experienced a continuation of selling pressure. The Fed opted to keep interest rates unchanged and issued hawkish comments. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank's commitment to achieving a 2% inflation target and expressed readiness to raise rates if deemed necessary. The prospect of higher interest rates in the US has a direct impact on oil prices. Elevated interest rates can raise borrowing costs, potentially slowing economic growth and reducing oil demand.
2. Saudi Arabia's Stance on Oil Production:
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman clarified that OPEC's decision to reduce oil production was primarily motivated by a desire for market stability and not aimed at supporting Russia's actions in Ukraine. In recent weeks, both Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's top two oil exporters, announced voluntary production cuts. These measures have played a role in supporting WTI prices, with both countries committing to sustaining reduced oil output until the end of 2023. Saudi Arabia is set to limit its oil production to approximately 1.3 million barrels per day through the end of 2023.
3. Crude Oil Inventory Reports:
Crude oil inventory reports have also influenced market sentiment. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a significant decline of nearly 5.25 million barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending September 15. This contrasted with the previous reading, which showed a rise of 1.174 million barrels. Market expectations had been leaning towards a 2.7 million-barrel decline. Additionally, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease of 2.135 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles during the same period, compared to a previous increase of 3.954 million barrels. The market had anticipated a drawdown of 2.2 million barrels.
4. Upcoming Economic Data Impact:
Looking ahead, oil traders are closely monitoring several economic data releases that could significantly influence WTI prices. These include the US weekly Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Existing Home Sales, all scheduled for release later on Thursday. Furthermore, the preliminary US S&P Global PMI for September is expected to be released on Friday. These events will be of particular interest to traders as they could impact the USD-denominated WTI price.
In conclusion, WTI oil prices are currently navigating a complex landscape, with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and global oil production dynamics playing key roles. The energy market will closely follow economic data releases for insights into the future direction of oil prices, offering trading opportunities for investors.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Pullback Before The FED 🛢️
On a today's live stream, we discussed WTI Oil.
The price is currently taking off from a solid horizontal support.
As a confirmation, the market formed an inverted h&s pattern.
Its neckline has just been broken.
I expect a pullback at least to 90.6 level now.
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US OIL / WTI Analysis 14Sep2023US Oil has a very strong bullish, by always forming new high. If at the end of this clock, a bullish candle is formed which is quite thick, it is likely that the price will continue to the right price of 91 in the Fibo extension area of 0.786 and contact with the channel line. We see again how the market reaction in the price area.
OIL GO LONG
Crude oil reached the 88 point three times yesterday and then fell back to today's opening point of 87.27. But support continues to rise. In my post yesterday, I talked about how crude oil will continue to try to break through 88 and then drop to range trading. Everything is as per my analysis.
We have mentioned too many times regarding the macro data of crude oil production reduction, and currently we are waiting for the target of 90. A rebound zone will then appear.
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Target 90
Crude oil prices rose to a nine-month high after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended notices of voluntary supply reductions until the end of the year.
After hitting a high of 88, crude oil fell into a high and volatile situation. It has tested the suppression of the 88 line three times. With the high point clearly suppressed, the bulls encountered resistance when rising, while the bears had strong support below 85.6.
It is only a matter of time before crude oil breaks through 88.
Bearish in the short term, bullish in the long term.
WTI target 90-95
After a high level of crude oil, the crude oil has fallen into a high shock situation. At present, the suppression of the 87.5550 front line has been tested three times. After the end of the end of the week was unsuccessful, it fell again. The current price is near 86.30. In the case of significant suppression of high points, the long -headed rise encountered resistance, and the back -to -step can not be strongly supported below 85.550. After there is a chase in front of the front, the upper cannot be broken, and the support cannot be broken. To enter the repeated rhythm of the interval, the short -term steps around this interval to step back and more participation. For four hours of reference, it cannot be found that the current long -headed operation is still intact. There is no excessive step back, and the back step has not fallen below the previous low. We insist on unchanged ideas, and at the same time, crude oil will come to 90.00 again, or even near 95.00. Therefore, we are still involved in the low -mindedness of our consistent persistence, and we will focus on stepping on the 85.550 support opportunities to involve the multiple orders during the day.
US OIL / WTI Analysis 10Sep2023The movement of US oil has been very bullish in recent months, it seems to be seen to be peak for a few moments ahead. If you look at the Elliot Wave series that occurs, Wave 5 is likely to end. If you want to Short, it's better to wait for prices to fall to the reversal and retrace areas.
Weekly Roundup - USOIL WTI (September 9, 2023)Several clearly defined levels on weekly & daily charts that I'll be watching for trade setups at.
OIL: Fluctuating at high levels and waiting to rise.
Crude oil prices have been rising in recent days after the announcement of production cuts. The highest breakthrough was the 88 resistance level. The rising situation at this stage has reached a bottleneck stage. We need to pay attention to shock adjustments in the future.
We need to focus on the 85-85.8 support level below, and the 87.5-88 resistance level above.
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Crude oil production cuts postponed to December
Mid-term trend of crude oil: After the correction in August, oil prices still did not stop the rise in oil prices.
Saudi Arabia and Russia announced crude oil production cuts in July 2023, originally scheduled for a one-month period, and the latter two extended the additional production cuts twice to the end of September, and this time, another extension by the end of December exceeded market expectations .
The prospect of the U.S. economy avoiding a deep recession helped boost oil demand and prices.
According to the small cycle chart of crude oil, it is in the rising stage. Crude oil is currently running above the key moving average EMA144. It is expected that this moving average will continue to support oil prices and is more likely to continue to be bullish.
WTI Will return to the recent high of 84.87
The current global economic outlook makes many bullish investors apprehensive, but there are two factors that will cause bullish investors not to change their minds.
1. The United States has reduced the number of drilling rigs for nine consecutive months, and Saudi Arabia may extend its production cut plan, which will lead to a constant shortage of crude oil.
2. U.S. fuel futures rose to a seven-month high.
Once it returns to around 81.22 on the 21-day daily moving average, it will revisit the recent high of 84.87
USOIL - Large Scale Distribution at PlayWTI has been steadily appreciating in price since May 2020 with the peak being reached on 08-Mar-2022 at $129.42/bbl. Price swept the critical highs of $114.8/bbl twice then retracted into its current range.
My previous write up on the asset was bullish with continued upside potential up to $140$. Before it got there I was expecting a sweep below the range low at $92.96/bbl before the move higher takes place. We are at that point right now. The sweep under the range occurred on 14-Jul-2022.
From a weekly perspective, the price is trapped in the range as outlined between $129.42 high and $92.96 low.
There are two options, the price continues to trade within the range or price drops below the range toward the $60 level. I prefer the latter scenario as I believe the 28-Feb-2022 and the 07-Mar-2022 weekly candles are exhaustion candles where institutions offloaded the majority of their long positions. A meaningful retrace is expected despite all the geopolitical turmoil as the risks in my opinion are already priced in.
US OIL / WTI Analysis 2Sep2023This week's US oil price movement is so constant. Bullish signal is very strong. The closure of this week finally forms a new high structure. If at this time the price leads to Wave 5, then there are several extension fibo targets that we can pay attention to. Possible prices to move to fibo extension 0.786 in the price range of 92
Weekly Roundup: WTIWait and see mode for me on WTI. Lots of potential trades to watch for, just have to be patient.
WTI CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK Good day, traders.
Today, we'll be looking at WTI crude oil. I anticipate a break of the 80.80 prior high and a return to the 80 zone, after which we will seek for bullish confirmations to place a buy order.
Keep in mind: No confirmation, no admission.
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USOIL SHORT TO 80.5
The trend of crude oil will continue to fall, and the previous trend is very dangerous and distorted. Shorting is currently feasible around 83.5. The current trend chart is running downward and upward slowly, which is a signal to seize the opportunity.
Target 80.5
