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Wticrude

WTI rallies form range lows - break of $70 up next?WTI crude posted a strong rally from the $67 support level thanks to another strong drawdown of crude inventories. The fact it rallied over 3% despite the stronger US dollar and hawkish comments from Powell makes us wonder if it could have broken above $70 were the dollar not to dominate FX majors on Wednesday. Still, prices are trading within a range between $67 - $72/73, and whilst prices action remains choppy o the daily chart there are some opportunities to trade the range on lower timeframes. A triple bottom has formed on the daily along with a 2bar bullish reversal (bullish piercing line). String volumes accompanied the rally from the $67.50 area to show demand around those lows and the OBV (on balance volume) broke above its previous swig high, which hints at a breakout for prices. Prices are drifting higher at the open, but we’d consider bullish setups above or around the daily pivot point or 10/20 EMAs if prices pullback for a potential swing-trade long to $70.A break above which brings the resistance zones around $71 and $72 into focus.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
Oil: Can support survive? Today's focus: Oil Pattern – Descending Triangle Possible targets – 64.06 73.22 Support – 67.05 Resistance – 72.22 74.15 Hi, and thanks for looking at today’s update. Our attention is on oil after yesterday’s sharp selling took price back to key support. This level has held firm for buyers, but could this be the fourth time lucky for sellers? So far, production cut updates have done little more than spur on sellers. Will we see buyers re-hold this level, or could we see a new break lower by sellers that gets the downtrend back on track? Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSD
by Eightcap
Crude oil 10 win planYesterday, crude oil indicated a sell above 72.9, but ultimately did not trade, then crude oil fell to 70.15 gave us a great opportunity to buy, and this is also our sell order target position, and then I directly publicly advised everyone to buy crude oil near 70.2, giving a target of 72.5-73. Crude reached a high of 72.3 in US trading and I also indicated that you can take profits out of the market, and we have once again won back-to-back. Today, crude oil is still treated in the range of operation, back to 70.3-70.5 range can continue to buy, tp73-73.5. Try not to try to sell crude oil today, I will inform you if there is a new arrangement, and we will have important EIA data today, wish us good luck.
TVC:USOILLong
by Besttraderking
Trading the range on WTI (CL1!)Oil prices are trading quite erratically on the daily chart, making it a much less appealing market to trade on that timeframe. But that doesn't mean we cannot find potential inflection points at the intraday level. Monday's opening gap has been filled, and earlier losses on Tuesday were fully recouped to print a bullish pinbar on the daily chart which found support just above $70. We're not looking for a huge move, but we see the potential for prices to have another crack at the $73, and the 3-wave retracement towards $71 looks appealing for a swing trade long. Take note of the HVN (high volume node) around $72.64 which could act as a magnet should momentum eventually turn higher. We're not sure the actual swing low is in yet, so we're looking for higher volumes accompanied by one or more bullish reversal candles on the hourly timeframe or lower, to hint at a swing low. And if it can form above or around the $71 support zone it could provide an adequate reward to risk ratio for a cheeky long.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
1
WTI Crude Oil Sell TP = 42.67On the weekly chart, the trend started on March 13, 2022 (linear regression channel). There is a high probability of profit, since the channel is not yet closed. A possible take profit level is 42.67 ( this is the minimum take profit value, but it has a high percentage of payoff ). But don't forget about SL = 98 . Using a trailing stop is also a good idea! Please leave your feedback, your opinion. I am very interested in it. Thank you! Good luck! Regards, WeBelieveInTrading
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by WeBelieveInTrading
Oil- Back above 80?After the double top from last year, Wti entered a downtrend and, considering the top and bottom, lost half of its value. However, we can see from the chart that prices under 65 are bought and Oil looks like it has a flood in this zone. More, from the chart we could also see the importance of this zone, acting as resistance back in 2021 and support in 2022. More, this level acted as resistance in 2019 and 2020, before the pandemic craziness. In conclusion, at least in my opinion, there is a fundamental demand around this price. Considering this price as a floor, the logical outcome in the future would be a test of 83 resistance. So, a drop under 70 could be a good buying opportunity in medium term and such a trade would also have a risk:reward of 1:2
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by Mihai_Iacob
4
WTI UpdateOkay, the Saudis did cut. I must confess that I underestimated His Royal Highness's ability to surprise. That leaves us with a possible gap on Monday. Given the market pressures and the fact that the previous cut was ineffective in sustaining the price, the gap is unlikely to be as large as in April. The gap is, most likely, wave 3 of (c) of the first wave up in the leading diagonal. There is still a chance that wave (ii) will close the gap, as shown on the chart. MBS, you did an excellent job. I am not as long as I could have been.
TVC:USOIL
by Fomenka
3
Crude Oil WTI (Going lower first?) View On WTI (31 May 2023) WTI is in * Downtrend in short term (Intraweek) * Neutral in Mid term (Intramonth) * Neutral in Long term (Last 3 months) WTI is going now where and I guess it is likley to retest the swing low of $66 We are not in the hurry to go long at all. Let's see. DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too. Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment". Thank You! Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading crypto, foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by SonicDeejay
WTI OIL aiming for an UPSIDE reversal.WTI net buys has been steadily increasing this past few days -- conveying accumulation at the current discounted price range. WTI just touched 1.0 FIB LEVEL -- the most discounted price range you can get. Expect some notable bounce from the present levels. The 70.0 level is a strong solid support which has been tested many times in the last 6 months -- and price keeps bouncing off it. Weekly higher lows has been created signifying that the present price as the last base before the incoming series of ascend. Spotted at 72.0 TAYOR Safeguard capital always.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by JSAL
Three Headwinds to Send Crude Oil Into Free FallNot too long ago, Gasoline prices rattled American car drivers with a price tag of USD 5 a gallon. And now, much to their delight, gasoline prices have eased to USD 3.50 a gallon. Slump in crude prices which influences gasoline has plunged by one-third over the last twelve months. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") trades around USD 70. Rattled US consumers, underwhelming Chinese recovery, and robust supply will drag crude oil prices down even further in the near term at least until OPEC+ meeting on June 4th. Barring an OPEC+ “shock-and-awe” intervention, crude oil will continue losing steam. This paper argues that a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil expiring in July (MCLN2023) with an entry of USD 71.90 a barrel with a target of 64.80, and hedged by a stop loss at 75.60, is likely to yield a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.9x. RATTLED BUT RESILIENT. US CONSUMER SENTIMENT IS WEAKENING. Oil prices face massive headwinds in the near term in line with frail U.S. consumer sentiment. It slumped to a six-month low as a debt ceiling drama fuelled worries about the economic outlook. The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment index clocked 57.7 pointing to the lowest reading since last November and down from 63.5 in April. Consumer sentiment tumbled 9% wiping out over half of the gains achieved after the all-time historic low from last June. While current macroeconomic data show little sign of recession, consumers’ worry about the economy escalated this month. Expectations for the economy a year from now sank 23% from last month. Longer term expectations contracted 16% highlighting that consumers concerns that economic downturn will not be shortlived. Consumers have demonstrated resilience thus far. But their anticipation of a recession will trigger to cut spending when signs of weakness emerge. An unresolved banking crisis and a prolonging debt ceiling drama paint a dismal picture for US consumers. It will amplify if debt default drama continues this week with rising likelihood of default and the resulting economic consequences. UNDERWHELMING CHINESE RECOVERY The much-anticipated economic rebound never occurred, but to describe it as underwhelming might be an understatement. Broad economic indicators point to weakening instead of recovery. Industrial production and retail sales missed forecasts. Unemployment rate among youth set a record high of 20.4%. A frail global economy adds to China’s gloom. High inflation and elevated rates in China’s key destination countries have slashed demand for Chinese products. Exporters at China’s largest trade fair reported a drop in overseas orders. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment, which have helped to offset the slump in property investment, both slowed in April from the previous month, a sign of more subdued government spending and weak business confidence. The property market remains weak despite early signs of a pickup in housing sales. Consumers are reluctant to borrow. China’s home price growth slowed in April. Indicators show slowing momentum in home purchases despite Government’s effort to prop up the real estate. China’s housing starts is at its lowest when compared over the last 10 years. Property investment shrank more than 16% in April YoY even though home sales grew. Construction of new homes continued to decline. New household loans, posted the first decline in 12 months in April 2023, suggesting that residents repaid more than they borrowed. NOT WEAK DEMAND BUT UNSEEN ROBUST OIL SUPPLY More than Expected Supply Given the gloomy headlines, it is easy to fall prey to the notion that demand is the problem. The real problem is too much supply, argues Javier Blas of Bloomberg. Unexpected production is primarily coming from OPEC+ countries despite promise of supply cuts. Many oil producing nations are unknowingly participants of the prisoner's game. Demand Remains Steady The IEA raised its forecast for 2023 global oil demand by 400,000 bpd, setting a record daily consumption of 102 million barrels. In short, demand remains resilient. IEA’s optimism may be misplaced, and oil demand growth might soften. But its forecast accounts for pessimistic diesel outlook. Presently, the oil market has all its eyes on Washington. The US gulps two out of every ten barrels pumped worldwide. But America is not the oil market. Its consumption lead has narrowed significantly. In 2023, the combined consumption of China and India (21.4 million bpd) is expected to be larger than the US (20.3 million bpd). The real hurdle holding back an oil rally is supply. The need for cash in producing nations forces them to pump more. These countries are trying to make up for lost revenues by ramping up volumes to compensate for what they are losing due to lower prices. MANAGED MONEY ARE BEARISH AT LEVELS UNSEEN SINCE 2011 Net position of non-commercial players is at its most bearish levels since 2011 across a combination of major oil contracts. Non-commercial participants include hedge funds, proprietary trading groups, asset managers, among others. Other Reportable Positions represent open interest by large participants that trade their own accounts and do not fit into any other category. TRADE SETUP Amid gloomy outlook and strong headwinds, this paper posits that a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures expiring in July (MCLN2023) with an entry of USD 72.00 with a target of 64.80, and hedged by a stop at 75.60, is likely to deliver a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.9x. • Entry: 71.90 USD/barrel • Target: 64.80 USD/barrel • Stop: 75.60 USD/barrel • Profit at Target: USD 710 • Loss at Stop: USD 370 • Reward-to-risk: 1.9x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCLN2023Short
by mintdotfinance