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Wticrude

Oil- Back above 80?After the double top from last year, Wti entered a downtrend and, considering the top and bottom, lost half of its value. However, we can see from the chart that prices under 65 are bought and Oil looks like it has a flood in this zone. More, from the chart we could also see the importance of this zone, acting as resistance back in 2021 and support in 2022. More, this level acted as resistance in 2019 and 2020, before the pandemic craziness. In conclusion, at least in my opinion, there is a fundamental demand around this price. Considering this price as a floor, the logical outcome in the future would be a test of 83 resistance. So, a drop under 70 could be a good buying opportunity in medium term and such a trade would also have a risk:reward of 1:2
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by Mihai_Iacob
4
WTI UpdateOkay, the Saudis did cut. I must confess that I underestimated His Royal Highness's ability to surprise. That leaves us with a possible gap on Monday. Given the market pressures and the fact that the previous cut was ineffective in sustaining the price, the gap is unlikely to be as large as in April. The gap is, most likely, wave 3 of (c) of the first wave up in the leading diagonal. There is still a chance that wave (ii) will close the gap, as shown on the chart. MBS, you did an excellent job. I am not as long as I could have been.
TVC:USOIL
by Fomenka
3
Crude Oil WTI (Going lower first?) View On WTI (31 May 2023) WTI is in * Downtrend in short term (Intraweek) * Neutral in Mid term (Intramonth) * Neutral in Long term (Last 3 months) WTI is going now where and I guess it is likley to retest the swing low of $66 We are not in the hurry to go long at all. Let's see. DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too. Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment". Thank You! Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading crypto, foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by SonicDeejay
WTI OIL aiming for an UPSIDE reversal.WTI net buys has been steadily increasing this past few days -- conveying accumulation at the current discounted price range. WTI just touched 1.0 FIB LEVEL -- the most discounted price range you can get. Expect some notable bounce from the present levels. The 70.0 level is a strong solid support which has been tested many times in the last 6 months -- and price keeps bouncing off it. Weekly higher lows has been created signifying that the present price as the last base before the incoming series of ascend. Spotted at 72.0 TAYOR Safeguard capital always.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by JSAL
Three Headwinds to Send Crude Oil Into Free FallNot too long ago, Gasoline prices rattled American car drivers with a price tag of USD 5 a gallon. And now, much to their delight, gasoline prices have eased to USD 3.50 a gallon. Slump in crude prices which influences gasoline has plunged by one-third over the last twelve months. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") trades around USD 70. Rattled US consumers, underwhelming Chinese recovery, and robust supply will drag crude oil prices down even further in the near term at least until OPEC+ meeting on June 4th. Barring an OPEC+ “shock-and-awe” intervention, crude oil will continue losing steam. This paper argues that a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil expiring in July (MCLN2023) with an entry of USD 71.90 a barrel with a target of 64.80, and hedged by a stop loss at 75.60, is likely to yield a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.9x. RATTLED BUT RESILIENT. US CONSUMER SENTIMENT IS WEAKENING. Oil prices face massive headwinds in the near term in line with frail U.S. consumer sentiment. It slumped to a six-month low as a debt ceiling drama fuelled worries about the economic outlook. The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment index clocked 57.7 pointing to the lowest reading since last November and down from 63.5 in April. Consumer sentiment tumbled 9% wiping out over half of the gains achieved after the all-time historic low from last June. While current macroeconomic data show little sign of recession, consumers’ worry about the economy escalated this month. Expectations for the economy a year from now sank 23% from last month. Longer term expectations contracted 16% highlighting that consumers concerns that economic downturn will not be shortlived. Consumers have demonstrated resilience thus far. But their anticipation of a recession will trigger to cut spending when signs of weakness emerge. An unresolved banking crisis and a prolonging debt ceiling drama paint a dismal picture for US consumers. It will amplify if debt default drama continues this week with rising likelihood of default and the resulting economic consequences. UNDERWHELMING CHINESE RECOVERY The much-anticipated economic rebound never occurred, but to describe it as underwhelming might be an understatement. Broad economic indicators point to weakening instead of recovery. Industrial production and retail sales missed forecasts. Unemployment rate among youth set a record high of 20.4%. A frail global economy adds to China’s gloom. High inflation and elevated rates in China’s key destination countries have slashed demand for Chinese products. Exporters at China’s largest trade fair reported a drop in overseas orders. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment, which have helped to offset the slump in property investment, both slowed in April from the previous month, a sign of more subdued government spending and weak business confidence. The property market remains weak despite early signs of a pickup in housing sales. Consumers are reluctant to borrow. China’s home price growth slowed in April. Indicators show slowing momentum in home purchases despite Government’s effort to prop up the real estate. China’s housing starts is at its lowest when compared over the last 10 years. Property investment shrank more than 16% in April YoY even though home sales grew. Construction of new homes continued to decline. New household loans, posted the first decline in 12 months in April 2023, suggesting that residents repaid more than they borrowed. NOT WEAK DEMAND BUT UNSEEN ROBUST OIL SUPPLY More than Expected Supply Given the gloomy headlines, it is easy to fall prey to the notion that demand is the problem. The real problem is too much supply, argues Javier Blas of Bloomberg. Unexpected production is primarily coming from OPEC+ countries despite promise of supply cuts. Many oil producing nations are unknowingly participants of the prisoner's game. Demand Remains Steady The IEA raised its forecast for 2023 global oil demand by 400,000 bpd, setting a record daily consumption of 102 million barrels. In short, demand remains resilient. IEA’s optimism may be misplaced, and oil demand growth might soften. But its forecast accounts for pessimistic diesel outlook. Presently, the oil market has all its eyes on Washington. The US gulps two out of every ten barrels pumped worldwide. But America is not the oil market. Its consumption lead has narrowed significantly. In 2023, the combined consumption of China and India (21.4 million bpd) is expected to be larger than the US (20.3 million bpd). The real hurdle holding back an oil rally is supply. The need for cash in producing nations forces them to pump more. These countries are trying to make up for lost revenues by ramping up volumes to compensate for what they are losing due to lower prices. MANAGED MONEY ARE BEARISH AT LEVELS UNSEEN SINCE 2011 Net position of non-commercial players is at its most bearish levels since 2011 across a combination of major oil contracts. Non-commercial participants include hedge funds, proprietary trading groups, asset managers, among others. Other Reportable Positions represent open interest by large participants that trade their own accounts and do not fit into any other category. TRADE SETUP Amid gloomy outlook and strong headwinds, this paper posits that a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures expiring in July (MCLN2023) with an entry of USD 72.00 with a target of 64.80, and hedged by a stop at 75.60, is likely to deliver a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.9x. • Entry: 71.90 USD/barrel • Target: 64.80 USD/barrel • Stop: 75.60 USD/barrel • Profit at Target: USD 710 • Loss at Stop: USD 370 • Reward-to-risk: 1.9x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCLN2023Short
by mintdotfinance
WTI REMAINS IN RANGECrude oil prices consolidate around 68 and 77 dollars per barrel, remaining below the heights of March and April. The risk of downside movement is fueled by the slow recovery of China and their slow demand increase, higher interest rates on demand and uncertainty around US economy. On the other hand, if the prices dip too low, the countries of OPEC+ will be fast to decrease the supply in order to mitigate further down movement. The price will most likely keep ranging between 68 and 77 dollars, but if it breaks the support, it might fall to 64, while if the resistance gets broken, the price might target levels of 83.50. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses
BLACKBULL:WTI
by legacyFXofficial
WTI Crude Oil (The momentum has shifted!) View On WTI (15 May 2023) WTI is in * Downtrend in short term (Intraweek) * Downtrend in Mid term (Intramonth) * Downtrend in Long term (Last 3 months) Follow our analysis on early May. Crude Oil had a good run up to the resistant area of 72~74 before it gets shoot down again. Now we can except $67 regions as a good support and the price can go there first. So, We are not in the hurry to buy in just yet the current momentum is still the bearish one. Stand aside first if you are looing for a long entry. Let's see. DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too. Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment". Thank You! Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading crypto, foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by SonicDeejay
US Oil - Lows yet to comeHello traders! During the last post we were tracking a triple three correction in cycle wave 2 for OIL. After the 5 legs up from 64, we admitted the possibility of a bottom being in before our expectations (that were at GZ and blue wolfe wave completion around 57-60). However, the impulsive decline we just got from the local top suggested the 5 leg up from 64 to 83.8 were the final leg of an irregular flat in wave b of Z. We are therefore tracking more downside before looking for a buy opportunity. We will carefully study price action in order to assess possible targets. Given the current structure, yellow box is gaining probability with respect to purple box. Primary count on chart. We will update here! Best GMR
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by GMR-Capital
WTI BEARISH OUTLOOK CONTINUESThe weak trade and inflation data from China further casts doubt on the ability of fast economical recovery of the country after COVID. This puts a rench in OPEC's forecast that China will drive the demand for crude oil to record high. The technical indicators are also confirming the downtrend, with MACD histogram being below 0 and RSI under 50 neutral line. If this scenario continues, the price of the instrument might test levels of 64 and even 62. In the opposite scenario, the price might revert and test 77 point resistance. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by legacyFXofficial
WTI breaks out ahead of US inflation dataWe suspect volatility may be on the quiet side with a US inflation report looming, but this provides the opportunity for markets to consolidate and traders plan trades. Should we see the pace of inflation to continue slowing, it could strengthen oil prices for two basic reasons. 1 - A weaker US dollar, as traders bring forward rate cut bets / solidifies bets of 5.25% peak rate 2 - Reduces the odds of a recession and increases oil demand expectations The softer inflation is, the stronger the bullish reaction for oil could be expected. - WTI futures closed above trend resistance following a bull-flag breakout, which was accompanied by positive-delta volume during the rally to recent highs. - Prices are now consolidating, but we'd welcome a pullback towards $73 to buy dips in anticipation of a breakout above $74. - Initial target is $76 (near the upper daily ADR band) - A move to (and beyond) $77 could be on the cards if we're treated to a weaker-than-expected inflation report - The bias remains bullish above $72.50
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex