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Oil grows bearish but SPR refill loomsDespite OPEC cutting its output by an estimated 60 000 barrels per day in January 2023, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil dropped more than 10% from its high of $82.60. This price action follows a series of wild swings within the wide range between $70 and $83. We expect high volatility in the oil market to persist in the first quarter of 2023. Indeed, we think there is a high likelihood of USOIL falling below $70. However, with the U.S. administration seeking to refill its SPR, such a price drop is likely to be short-lived. As conclusion, we think oil will remain stuck within the wide range for a while longer. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. Since mid-November 2022, the price can be seen trading within the wide range between $70 and $83. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows indicate two technical developments which contradict each other. The first is a bullish crossover between 20-day and 50-day SMAs; the second is the subsequent price drop below these moving averages. These false and contradictory signals are common for moving averages when the price trends sideways. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. If the price breaks below Support 1, it will bolster the bearish odds in the short term. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
31
USOIL 13th FEBRUARY 2023Oil prices fell below US$81 after surging more than 8 percent last week. Although Moscow will reduce supply by half a million barrels per day by March 2023 due to tightening flows, investors remain wary that the Federal Reserve needs to continue pushing interest rates higher to tame inflation. The Fed's push has weighed on the appetite for riskier assets including commodities. Global crude oil prices weakened on concerns about a global slowdown, offsetting sentiment of Russia's plan to curb supply in retaliation for Western sanctions.
TVC:USOILShort
by DNP-FX
3
AW WTI Crude Short Trade Opportunity - USOIL to Slip Lower...In this video I highlight what could be the very start of Wave E down in WTI Crude. This could be the very last corrective wave before the start of the next bull market. This would mean that the trading plan for USOIL is going short to book a profit and then prepare for a long position after a bounce. The one thing I won't mention in this video are the insane levels prices could reach in the future. That is a topic for another video. Critical Resistance for this idea is at $82.60. You can either short at the open or wait for a break of support at $70. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
TVC:USOILShort
by AriasWave
1
Oil's long term re-test before upcoming rally? 13.2.2023Simple 1+1 equals 2. There's a couple factors here. 1) Long-term support since March 2023 kept with multiple re-tests. 2) Long-term 8 month wedge consolidation with recent Jan 2023 breakout up together with RETEST of that breakout at 74.80-75.20 as of today. If the week closes above this support, VERY high chance for continuation of breakout up and 80's-90's even 100 to be reached within coming weeks. If the support of 74.80-75.20 breaks down, retest of long-term March 2021 to today support trend-line is possible at 71.40-60. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I encourage to do your own research and trade with caution Thank you for reading and would very much appreciate your comments and questions! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by Exactus
7
WTI Crude oil : The retest to rule them all! 10.5Focus up! 100-101.50 is key retest level of support trend-line stretching back all the way to December 2021, with consistent higher lows. At the same time, it's also a retest level of the second higher high breakout stretching back from the peak of 128. China lock down is expected to ease within days, inflation is on the rise, EU oil ban for Russia is likely coming very soon. An unlikely daily close below 100 could signal further downside to 97 though very unlikely with current fundamental/technical combo. Do the math and keep the back noise out the picture, look only at key factors and act with caution and patience. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you so much for reading! If you found my idea useful, it would mean a lot for me if you like and follow! It's a pleasure for me to help as many traders as possible master trading, so please ask me on the comments anything you'd like. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Exactus
2
GTE The breakdown of the diagonal is likely a HTF Primary W1 into W2 because it's on the monthly. Typically a leading diagonal is a bearish precursor to a reversal. Also leading diagonals most likely form a wave 1 into w2 set ups. The 786% might be too optimistic, as the wave 1 was 5 up which means sub wave A which equals the 5 up diagonal which equals the HTF w1 is a HTF Zig Zag & Zig Zags can bounce off the 50%-618%. But the underlying nature of W2 is to destroy any hope of the wave 3. So rather the 786% is usually a trademark of the wave 2. Basically a lot of conflicting forces at play here as to where the bottom forms. But catching this dip for a LT play seems very smart as W3 is targeting $16-$18 & Wave 5 $200 plus.
AMEX:GTE
by Big_Mike716
3
Crude Oil Swing trading MCL / Crude Oil I'm starting with monthly TF - Naked chart Last months - On January - December can be seen that buyers push price higher and higer but still under $84 on $81,70-82,20 area, we have a support area that was resistence. This area was touched 3 times, first time with an agresive rejection , second time, move some prices there but nothing wow but in the third touch..there was some move We can see that it's possible to see a change of trend in this asset. For stock market traders this is a great oportunity because there are a lot of undervalueated stocks. Higher crude oil, higher prices for stocks but higher prices for everything But for now, all we must to do is to wait to see if price move will confirm my analyse, I will wait to see if we have a breakout over 83, if we have, i m long in this !
NYMEX:MCL1!
by Andrei_C
USOIL 1st FEBRUARY 2023USOIL is expected to be sideways within the ascending triangle area. The price has a possibility to reach the resistance area of the 8th touch. Breakout or rebound scenarios can occur at the touch point of the trendline, but if the price turns out to be a breakout from the support/resistance area. a big trend will likely occur. The existence of horizontal support and resistance is difficult to observe, but it is quite valid with the help of the stochastic 5 3 3 indicator where the area often rebounds.
TVC:USOIL
by DNP-FX
3
USOIL May Target 103 At Some PointUSOIL May Target 103 At Some Point. An M pattern has been completed but because the price jumped sooner than expected from 76.48, this FCP zone is left with less strength. Because of that the market is finding it hard to make a good bullish move and is simply consolidating. Right now it is in a consolidation phase but has started to show a bullish structure. If this structure stays intact, USOIL can start to move higher in time. There is a huge gap left above 100 around 103 level as we have a double top (liquidity area) around 93. USOIL at some point in time can target this leftover gap. Please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍🙂 Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:USOILLong
by vikinsa
Be prepared for a hawkish-than-expected Fed this week?Happy New Year of Rabbit! We will have a busy week. In addition to companies keep reporting result (Four of the FANNG companies will report earnings this week), other major events include a decisive Fed meeting, ECB meeting, BOE meeting, US employment data and OPEC+ meeting. Everyone’s focus will be on Fed meeting. Market fully expects a 25bp rise this week, and Fed might bow to market pressure and adapt a slower hiking pace. Having said that, the risk is Fed might signal there will be more interest rate hikes before the rate reach above 5%, rather than Fed Watch pricing in a pause at 4.75%. There is no doubt inflation is slowing down and the decelerating pace is pretty impressive, but there is still a big gap from the 2% target. Although there was some layoff news, they mainly concentrated on the sectors/companies that expanded rapidly during pandemic and now they are just downsizing to pre-covid level. From the initial jobless claims number, we can see the labour market stayed strong that might keep service inflation elevated. On Friday’s employment report, market expects hourly earnings will grow 4.3% yoy in January and unemployment rate inch up to 3.6%, that might force Fed to hike rate more than expected. The reopen of China economy might also pose risk to higher inflation. Cyclical commodity price such as copper and crude oil moved higher, offsetting the demand destruction concern resulted from a potential global recession. NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures broke the downtrend, a further breakthrough above USD82.64 might confirm a formation of uptrend, and could test USD93.64(Q4 double top high) and then USD96.97 (50% retracement). Any further expansionary fiscal policy targeting property or infrastructure sector in China, could also push the commodities price higher and thus the inflation. The supply chain diversification will structurally push up inflation. As the world factory, supply chain in China is very mature and cost effective, any shift of production line to other countries likely associated with higher cost. Idle capacity in China, together with new investment on supply chain in different countries, will permanently push the production cost higher. Globalization helped contain inflation, and the reverse will drive it up. There is risk the inflation will hover around 4% and refuse to go down further, that might put Fed in a difficult situation and diminishing any hope there will be an interest cut this year. ECB and BOE are expected to hike rate by 50bp this week. This might prevent Fed from being too dovish. OPEC+ will have meeting this week and no policy change is expected. However, we need to monitor the risk of escalation of geopolitical tension in Ukraine, and how Russia responds to the price cap on refined products imposed by EU and G7 from Feb 5. Be prepared for some market volatility, and a hawkish-than-expected Fed this week. Happy Trading. Disclaimers Above information are for illustration only and there is no guarantee on the accuracy of the information. They should not be treated as investment recommendations or advices. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FOTrading
AW WTI Crude Oil - The Definitive Conclusion For Oil Prices...In this video I go through the logical thinking process used from an AriasWave perspective. I have come to many conclusions about oil prices in the past, but I guess experience helps make my analysis better. The one thing that keeps coming to mind when analyzing charts lately are the effects of inflation. We live in an inflationary universe, and I believe everything that happens within it is a natural phenomenon. I also believe now is the time to really understand how to capitalize from the knowledge the waves give us. When hyperinflation really starts to kick in at some point in the not-so-distant future you want to be on top of your trading game. I believe there are still so many opportunities ahead of us before the secular bull markets begin. I will link the video mentioned in this idea below that talks about what I believe will happen in the Dow Jones. Commodities on the other hand will see significant increases by comparison due to the effects of geopolitics versus supply chain disruptions and globalization. I also believe that debt versus inflation will play a major role in driving up prices as central banks struggle to find a balance between the two by adjusting interest rates accordingly. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
TVC:USOIL
by AriasWave
beginning of 2023 will be bullish for oilFrom the previous analysis I analyzed as oil could bottom at 75 dollar. However it broke my resistant and stayed at 70 dollar point. Even the oil broke my resistant line. I kept my bullish analysis because it didn't show any major bearish pattern. I personally confirm that recent bearish move was just a fake one. I adjusted my bullish target to 90 dollar and I will re-analyze oil again when it reaches to my target. Double overselling term is showing and sustainable oil demand will push to higher price indeed.
TVC:USOILLong
by illuminating_trade
9
Is WTI Crude Set to ReboundIn this week’s case study, we analyse a long position on Micro WTI Crude Futures (February) with a potential target of $82.30/barrel and a stop loss at $67/barrel, yielding a reward to risk ratio of 1.15. Last week, we delivered a case study with a short position on WTI Crude Oil futures with entry at $77.80/barrel and exit at $73.65/barrel. This worked as planned with the target price being triggered within two days. Now with price trading at $74.10/barrel and strong support between $67-$72/barrel, this case study argues that this presents an interesting opportunity to enter into a long position in WTI Crude Oil futures. Bolstered by demand from China which is expected to recover, a long position in Crude Oil Futures provides us hedge in the medium-long term against limited downside risk. Replenishment of US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (S PR) The Biden administration is reported to replenish its S PR between the price range of $67-$72/barrel. WTI Crude is currently trading in that price range which could trigger S PR replenishment. More than 200 million barrels has been drawn down to supplement the demand for US crude oil amid high international prices. However, it is worth noting that according to the US Department of Energy, there are no active purchase offers yet. China Easing COVID Curbs Last week, China announced the most significant relaxation of its COVID curbs since the pandemic first erupted three years ago. Rules covering quarantine times, movement of people, and lockdown as well as testing were eased in the country. Nevertheless, COVID cases in China remain high. Although official numbers have fallen to a monthly low, straining medical infrastructure points to high level of infected cases. China is the second largest consumer of Crude Oil in the world, although they have largely been buying Russian Crude Oil at a discount, as demand increases, it will likely spill over into purchases of international oil as well impacting prices of Crude Oil. Fed Rate Decision All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due on December 14th. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 75% probability of a 50-bps (0.5%) rate hike at this meeting, slowing from the record 75-bps rate hikes announced at previous four meetings. Over the past two weeks, economic data points to limited impact of Fed rate hikes leading to fears that the Fed may continue with 75-bps rate hike. Tanker Delays Over the past week, several tankers carrying Russian crude oil were halted at the Turkish strait due to confusion surrounding the G7’s imposed sanctions on Russian crude tanker insuranc e. As of Monday, this jam started to be cleared. However according to a Bloomberg report, some 12 tankers had still not submitted the necessary documents confirming insu rance liabilities. As these delays might take more time to resolve, this might positively impact demand for WTI Crude Oil. EIA Short Term Energy Outlook The US Energy Information Administration (E IA) released its short-term energy outlook last week in which they stated that refinery utilization for 2023 was expected to remain at a five-year high. Although this will lead to lower prices for distillate and other petroleum products, it ensures high demand for WTI Crude leading to a strong price support. Technical Signals from the COT Report WTI Crude is currently trading at $70.67/barrel, which is right below its S1 support according to the Pivot indicator which stands at $71.48/barrel. The range of $67-72 provides strong support as mentioned before. Both RSI and Stochastic indicators point to oversold which could indicate a recovery in the short term. In the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report from December 6th, we can see that money moved out of swap positions to directional positions. Long positions held by managed money increased sharply by 11.9%. Overall long position OI increased by 4.4%. Still, this was on par with the increase in short position OI which also increased by 4.4%. Short OI saw producer positions increase far more than long OI. Trade Setup CME’s NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Futures provide exposure to 100 barrels of WTI crude oil. They have a maintenance margin of $750 at the time of writing and provide a cost-efficient way of getting exposures to the movements in Crude Oil prices. Long Position on CME NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Futures – February 2023 Contract Entry: $74.10/barrel Take Profit Target 1: $85.00/barrel Take Profit Target 2: $82.30/barrel Stop Loss: $67.00/barrel Establishing a long position on Micro WTI Futures (February) with an entry price of $74.10/barrel with a potential take profit target of $82.3 could provide exposure to a recovery in a WTI crude prices. This would yield 109.3% returns or $820. A stop loss at $67.0/barrel could protect against a further downward move. This is placed at the lower end of the expected range of S PR replenishment which is expected to provide strong support. The stop loss, if triggered, would lead to a loss of $710 or 94.6%, providing a reward risk ratio of 1.15. Alternatively, holding the position until the second target of $85/barrel would yield $1,090 in profit or 145.3%. CME’s full-size NYMEX WTI futures provide exposure to 1,000 barrels of WTI crude with a maintenance margin of $7,300 at the time of writing and provide improved liquidity in case of larger positions. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. 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NYMEX:CL2!Long
by mintdotfinance