Get started

Wticrude

BCO/WTI HEAVY SHORT Speculators cut oil long to pre-covid loWSWeekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to August 9. A relatively quiet week where a continued improvement in risk appetite drove stocks higher while softening the dollar. Some commodity positions, with crude oil the major exceptions, showed signs of having reached a trough following weeks of heavy selling his summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex during the week to August 9. A relatively quiet summer holiday impacted week where stocks traded higher ahead of last week’s CPI and PPI print after better than expected economic data helped reduce US recession fears while the market was looking for inflation to roll over. The dollar traded a tad softer, bond yields firmed up while commodities showed signs of having reached a trough following weeks of heavy selling. Adviser To Iranian Negotiating Delegation: The Chances Of Reaching A Nuclear Agreement Are Very Great ajel.sa Commodities Hedge funds were net buyers for a second week with demand concentrated in metals and agriculture while the energy sector saw continued selling. Overall the net long across 24 major commodity futures rose for a second week after recently hitting a two-year low. Buying was concentrated in gold, platinum, corn and livestock with crude oil and wheat being to most notable contracts seeing net selling. Energy: Speculators responded to continued crude oil weakness by cutting bullish bets in WTI and Brent crude by a combined 14% to a pre-Covid low at 304.5k lots. The reductions were primarily driven by long liquidation in both contracts following a demand fear driven breakdown in prices. Gas oil and gasoline longs were also reduced. Metals: Buying of metals extended to a second week led by gold which saw a 90% jump in the net long to 58.2k lots. Overall, net short positions were maintained in silver, platinum and copper with the latter seing a small amount of fresh selling due to profit taking on recently established longs. Agriculture: Grains were mixed with corn and soybeans seeing continued buying ahead of Friday's WASDE report while the CBOT corn net short jumped 36% to 20k lotsand the Kansas net long was cut to a two-year low. The total grain long rose for second week having stabilised around 300k lots having collapse from a near record 800k lot on April 22. Soft commodities saw elevated short positions in sugar and cocoa being maintained with price gains in coffee and not least cotton supporting a small increase in their respective net longs. This before Friday's surge in cotton which left it up 13% on the week after the US Department of Agriculture slashed the US crop forecast by 19% to a 12-year low. Driven by a high level of abandonment of fields in the drought-stricken Southwest. Forex In the week to August 9 when the dollar traded close to unchanged against a basket of major currencies, speculators increased to three the number of weeks of continued dollar selling. The pace of selling even accelerated to the highest since January after the gross long against ten IMM futures and the Dollar Index was slashed by 20% to $17.4 billion, a nine week low. Most notable selling of the greenback was seen against GBP and JPY followed by EUR and CHF. The Japanese yen, under pressure for months as yield differentials to the dollar widened saw its net short being cut by 22% to a 17-month low. MY WTI BCO STRATEY: HEAVY SHORT SELLING TARET:.... read in my member blog
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
5
USOIL 2/MAY/2023It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve, which is responsible for managing the US's monetary policy, will raise interest rates again. This could potentially cause the US economy to slow down and enter a recession later this year. In recent weeks, concerns about a banking crisis have affected the oil market. The US government took over First Republic Bank, and JPMorgan purchased most of its assets, causing alarm as three other US banks have previously collapsed: Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank. If more banks encounter difficulties, it may lead to a banking crisis that could cause a recession and a decrease in oil demand. Additionally, voluntary production cuts of about 1.16 million barrels per day by OPEC+ countries, including Russia, will take effect in May, impacting oil prices. On a positive note, the US's manufacturing industry is improving, and with rising demand and employment, this has slightly boosted oil prices.
TVC:USOILShort
by DNP-FX
2
USOIL set for a ride!Instrument : WTI Possible direction : Bullish Technical Analysis : Early this month WTI opened with a gap and was in consolidation and finally price has filled that gap and bounced from the long term support zone. As there is strong illiquidity grab and filling out of gab, WTI may start its uptrend and may continue to rise. Upon retest of the previous resistance as support a buy trade is high probable. Possible trade recommendation : Bullish as per sketch. Press like button if you enjoy. Risk Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage is dangerous and can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or any market you should carefully consider your investment goals, level of experience, and risk tolerance. It is EXTREMELY LIKELY that you will sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Individual results vary and no representation is made that clients will or are likely to achieve profits or incur losses comparable to those that may be shown. You acknowledge and agree that no promise or guarantee of success or profitability has been made between you, and Forex Trading Wizard. Do your own research and talk to a professional financial planner in order to be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and investing and seek advice from an independent financial advisor before risking any capital.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by ForexWizard01
2
WTI may bounce off the support!!Instruments : WTI Possible direction : Bullish Technical Analysis : Early this month WTI opened with big gap up and signaling possible trend change. After long consolidation, WTI filled the gap and currently bouncing off the support level. It is highly likely that WTI may change trend and continue to uprise. A bullish trade is high probable. Possible trade recommendation : Bullish as per sketch. Press like button if you enjoy. Risk Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage is dangerous and can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or any market you should carefully consider your investment goals, level of experience, and risk tolerance. It is EXTREMELY LIKELY that you will sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Individual results vary and no representation is made that clients will or are likely to achieve profits or incur losses comparable to those that may be shown. You acknowledge and agree that no promise or guarantee of success or profitability has been made between you, and Forex Trading Wizard. Do your own research and talk to a professional financial planner in order to be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and investing and seek advice from an independent financial advisor before risking any capital.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by ForexWizard01
USOIL 10 Dec 22The timeline of China’s economic rebound frames the demand outlook in the crude markets, which remain rattled by concerns over broader global appetite for transport fuels amid mounting inflation rates and recessionary signals. On the supply side, energy markets await further clarity on the Russian production impact of an EU ban that came in force on Dec. 5. Alongside it’s implementation was a program by the G-7 largest global economies that seeks to facilitate shipping and transport services for non-G7 Russian purchases transacted under a price cap. The Brent crude contract for February delivery was trading at $76.13 per barrel at 11:55 a.m. London time Friday morning, down by 2 cents from the Dec. 8 settlement. The front-month Nymex WTI contract was at $71.79 a barrel, adding 33 cents from Thursday’s close price. source: CNBC . . . . . . 🧅Disclaimer :There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. This is Not Financial Advice 🧅JUST AN OPINION OF THE ONION.🧅
TVC:USOIL
by MLGONION
USOIL 82.64 +0.3% DAILY BREAKDOWN FOR THE WEEKHELLO EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GREAT WEEKEND. HERE'S A LOOK AT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT ON THE GOLD IN THE COMING WEEK. USOIL COULD CONTINUE THE BULLISH RALLY TO CONTINUE THE HKEX:80 PER BARREL AND HOLD ABOVE. * Looking for some correction to fill some imbalances before this happens * Looking for the buy side liquidity sweep to confirm some bearish bias. * Should this happen looking for PD ARRAYS to enter or change my bias on the OIL. - Should this play out -targeting the unmitigated FVG below * If we break above and close above the bearish OB trade is invalidated. - TARGET would be the FVG that is unmitigated before continuing to the upside. lets see how it goes. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
TVC:USOILShort
by PULEMokhothu
WTI ($USOIL): Short Term Bullish SetupAfter OPEC's announcement to cut production, $WTI soared after the open. Now, from a technical point of view it should be correct to try again to take long positions on a potential pullback. STRATEGY: Try to take a long position by splitting the position, 50% around $78 and 50% around $75. Stop loss below $71 (hourly close). Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers! N.B.: Updates will follow below
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
WTI breaks out of consolidation, $90 up next?WTI broke out of consolidation and closed above its 200-day EMA and resistance zone. The OBV (on balance indicator) confirmed the breakout with a move to a new cycle high, and volumes (whilst below average) are turning higher to show buyers stepping back in. Furthermore, we saw a gap ahead of the consolidation above HKEX:79 , although using classic definitions it doesn't quite fit into 'breakaway' or 'runaway' gap category. Regardless, we've seen a 30% rally from the March low with a gap along the way, OPEC+ cut oil production, and the trend points higher. With that said, the 200-day MA is capping as resistance, so bulls may want to wait for a break (or daily close) above the level. But overall, the risks appear skewed to the upside. - The bias remains bullish above 79 and an initial move to 90, then the 93.60 highs - Wednesday's low could be used for tighter risk management
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
Crude oil extends rally to test 200 MAIn response to a weaker headline US inflation print of 5%, energy and metal prices rose as the dollar dropped. While gold and silver have since come off their earlier highs, copper has managed to push higher. But it is crude oil that is catching the attention with both contracts up more than 2% each. Why are oil prices rising? Well, the biggest reason is from the supply side of the equation, as it often is when it come to oil prices. Following the OPEC’s surprise decision last weekend to cut oil production unexpectedly by nearly 1.7 million barrels per day, this has so far had the intended impact in keeping oil prices supported. After a week-long consolidation near the HKEX:80 level, oil prices have started move higher this week, with WTI climbing above HKEX:83 today. Crude oil has also been supported in part because of the ongoing weakness in US dollar, optimism about Chinese pent-up demand, and the recent upsurge in other commodity prices like gold and silver. The weaker US CPI print has raised doubts over whether the Fed will now hike rates at all next month, after a 25bp hike was priced in with a 75% probability for the May 3 FOMC meeting. Now, that probability has fallen to around 66%, suggesting investors who are feeling that the Fed is near the end of the hiking cycle will feel even more comfortable now. Falling interest rate expectations is reducing recession concerns and helping to support buck-denominated asset prices at the same time. Improving Eurozone economy Crude oil is also finding support because of an improving European economy. While we haven’t had much European data this week, the closely watched Sentix Investor Confidence, which came out on Tuesday, improved more than expected to -8.7 from -11.1, reflecting the recent improvement in Eurozone data. Indeed, last week, we saw German industrial production jumped 2.0% month-over-month in February, easily beating the 0.1% increase forecast and adds to the 3.7% gain in January. In addition, we saw German factory orders surged 4.8% MoM, while the eurozone composite PMI rose to a 10-month high. As result of the improvement in data, Germany is now expected to avoid a recession. Indeed, a couple of German economic institutes now think the Eurozone’s largest economy will grow this year. The German economic recovery has been supported by the reopening of China and strong activity in the automotive sector. Indeed, we saw German exports surge higher in February while imports also rose. More significantly, the German trade surplus has been noticeably higher at the start of this year compared to Q4. The improving German economy and receding concerns over an energy crisis is why the German DAX index has been able to outperform its Wall Street peers so far this year, and why the EUR/USD has been able to get close to the 1.10 handle. But it is not just Germany. A few other Eurozone countries have also been doing relatively well, not least Spain, where the services sector has been going from strength to strength. WTI’s breakaway gap As mentioned in our previous update, WTI was unlikely to fill that big gap it had formed when the OPEC surprised the market with its decision. It had the characteristics of a breakaway gap. After 1 whole week of consolidation around the key HKEX:80 level, WTI never looked like it wanted to close that gap. This gave traders the confidence that they need that the market wants to push higher, and so they have started to bid oil priced higher again. From here, WTI could go to reach $85.00 and eventually even $90.00. In the short-term, I wouldn’t rule out a dip back towards broken resistance range between $81.00 to $81.80ish, given that it is testing its 200-day average. This $81.00 to $81.80 area is now going to be the most important support zone to watch. For as long as the bulls hold their ground here, the path of least resistance would remain to the upside. -- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by FOREXcom
WTI falters around $70Oil prices fell to a 15-month low as investors fretted over the potential for a financial meltdown. Whilst that is yet to fully materialise (or if it does at all), investors remain a little on edge - with news of the latest Hindenburg report accusing Block (SQ) of fraudulent activity not likely to quell fears. WTI has manged to lift itself from its 15-month lows, yet volumes declined over this period to suggest the move was corrective. A bearish Pinbar also formed, which not only failed to test the $72.46 breakout level but also closed back below $70 and the December low. Also note that a bullish hammer has formed on the US dollar index (DXY). - We're now waiting for a break of Wednesday's low to assume bearish continuation, with target zones made up of Fibonacci expansions and round numbers residing around $65 and $60 in focus. - The bias remains bearish below $72.46, although yesterday's high can also be used if a tighter approach to risk management is preferred.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
WTI could head to $85 after OPEC cutsThe OPEC+ decision means nearly 1.7 million barrels of oil per day will be held back from global supply. This should help to keep the WTI supported. • Significant reduction from oil supply should keep downside limited • Demand concerns overstated • We think WTI could reach $85 to $90 WTI crude oil hit a fresh post-OPEC high above $81.80 on Tuesday, before sliding more than $1 from there to close Wednesday's session lower. But at the time of writing on Thursday, it was back in the positive as support at $80 held yet again. The path of least resistance remains to the upside following the big price upsurge on the back of the OPEC’s unexpected decision at the weekend. Our WTI forecast is that it will reach $85 to $90 before any serious signs of weakness emerge. Where does oil go from here? In the short-term, oil prices are going to be driven more by supply concerns than demand. On the supply front, the big production cuts have fuelled speculation oil prices will reach 2022 levels and provide fresh inflationary jolt to world economy. I, for one, think that the impact of the production cuts could send WTI to at least $85-$90 from here, before we potentially see some real weakness in oil prices again. Any short-term weakness in oil prices could prove to be short lived. Weakening US jobs data not impacting WTI much Obviously, a high oil price will hurt demand at a time when household and business finances are overstretched. The thing about oil demand, though, is that it is very price inelastic. So, unless something like Covid happens again, don’t expect to see a material drop in oil prices due to demand weakness. People will not stop driving or travelling by plane because of high oil prices. Therefore, demand is only likely to get hurt moderately by rising oil prices. This means that the weakness in US jobs data we have seen over the past couple of days, which has revived fears of a slowdown in the US economy, is unlikely to hold oil prices back. On Wednesday we saw the employment component of the ISM PMI fall sharply from the previous month’s 54.0 reading but at 51.3 it still remained in the positive territory. On top of this, the ADP Private Payrolls come in at 145K when 210K was expected. On Tuesday, we saw a big 630K drop in US job openings in February. These weaker employment indicators only add to recession concerns. But it is worth remembering that the jobs market still remains quite healthy. Just look at the recent non-farm payrolls reports. What’s more, despite that large drop in job openings, there are still some 1.67 jobs available for each unemployed US citizen. To give you an idea how this compares to the pre-pandemic levels, when the labour market was considered strong, there were about 1.2 jobs available for each unemployed person in the US. All eyes will now be on the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, with the ISM services PMI to come later on Wednesday’s session. European data improves further Meanwhile from Europe we have seen some surprisingly strong data this week. German industrial production jumped 2% in February when a small decline was expected. A day earlier, we found out that industrial orders had jumped by 4.8% in February, recovering sharply since November when recession concerns were at the highest. What’s more, Spanish business activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors improved further in March, and once again beat expectations. Spain's services PMI rose to 59.4 in March, reaching its highest level since November 2021. With the Eurozone economy proving to remain more resilient than expected, this should reduce concerns over demand in the short-term. What about the longer-term outlook? While the OPEC+ cuts are expected to tighten the oil market and may well provide further support to prices in the near-term, the longer-term outlook remains uncertain. After all, a side effect of a sustained period of high oil prices will be inflation. This may mean tighter monetary policy will remain in place longer than expected. Even then, it will probably take a proper hard landing of the global economy to cause a severe dent in global oil demand. Thus, the only way for oil prices to come under significant pressure again is from the supply side of the equation. Specifically, if non-OPEC supply increases sharply. This is possible but will take some time for producers outside of the OPEC+ to ramp up their production. If they ramp oil production so significantly than OPEC+ starts to lose market share again, then this will start another supply war between the OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries such as the US and Canada. WTI Technical Analysis Bringing the focus back to the short-term, oil traders are now torn between waiting for a proper dip in order to buy oil or chase the market here so that they don’t miss out on further potential gains. The big gap that was created at the weekend remains largely unfilled. While gaps typically fill, they don’t always. This could be a breakaway gap in oil prices, given the big fundamental impetus that was announced. On the hourly time frame, we can see that WTI has broken above its triangle continuation pattern after support at $80 held on several occasions. This could be the sign the would-be bullish speculators were waiting for. Whether Thursday's breakout from the triangle pattern will hold remains to be seen. Generally speaking, what oil traders will want to see here is some consolidation around or ideally slightly above the $80 level now. This would give traders the confidence that they need that the market wants to push higher. Alternatively, if WTI falls to fill most or all of its weekend gap, then, in that case, traders will want to see the formation of a bullish daily candle before looking for fresh long opportunities. ICYMI, here’s what the OPEC agreed on In case you didn’t read the news, the OPEC+ blindsided the market with a surprise production cut, announced at the weekend. The group agreed to cut nearly 1.7 million barrels of oil per day. The reductions are pledged from next month through year end. Saudi Arabia is again leading the way with 500,000 barrels per day of cuts. Several other Gulf states have joined in with their curbs. Russia, who had already announced a 500k bpd through June, has now extended that through year end. The OPEC+ decision came totally unexpected. Given that nearly 1.7 million barrels of oil per day will be held back from global supply, this should keep prices supported. -- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by FOREXcom
Rebounding Air Travel & Rising China to Fire Up WTI CrudeBack in the 70s, oil prices spiked shockingly from $2.90 to $11.65 a barrel; gasoline soared 6-times from 20 cents to 120 cents a gallon in a matter of days. Fuel shortages forced factories to shut, airlines to cancel flights and stations crying "Sorry, No Gas Today". Fistfights ensued, including occasional gunfire. President Nixon called for America to end its dependence on foreign oil. In those five lines of history lies the genesis of both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil and WTI Crude Oil derivatives. This paper is set in two parts. Part 1 looks back at the remarkable 40-year history of CME Group’s WTI Crude Oil Derivative. Part 2 of the paper analyses the fundamental drivers fuelling WTI crude oil prices higher and an accompanying case study delivering 1.75x reward to risk. PART 1: ENABLING RISK MANAGEMENT IN ENERGY PRICES FOR FORTY YEARS Energy markets form the backbone of the global economy. Its prices can make or break nations. Unchecked volatility in energy prices can adversely impact every aspect of daily lives from food to work to shelter to travel. WTI is high-quality crude oil extracted from the Texas Permian Basin. Crude oil is then refined into gasoline, distillate, and kerosene. WTI is known as light sweet crude oil. It is considered "sweet" as it contains low levels of sulphur. Given the low density, it makes WTI "light". WTI Crude is a widely used global benchmark for oil prices. It is the underlying commodity for one of the most liquid futures contracts in the world – the CME Crude Oil Futures ("CL Futures"). CL Futures is a physically delivered contract with tight correlation to the physical oil market. Over one million contracts of CL Futures change hands daily on NYMEX, representing $7+ billion in notional values. Each lot of the CL Futures contract represents one thousand barrels of oil. CL Futures provide deep liquidity and high-quality market structure for hedgers and investors to participate in and protect against oil price action. NYMEX began trading CL Futures on March 30th, 1983. Among the pioneer commodities to list and trade on NYMEX was the WTI Crude. In November 1986, NYMEX launched American options (LO) on CL Futures allowing participants greater sophistication and flexibility in hedging against oil price volatility. In March 2008, the CME Group acquired NYMEX for $9.4 billion. In April 2014, CME introduced weekly options on CL Futures (LO1-LO5) with more granular strike prices. In December 2021 CME launched Micro WTI Futures, which further enable affordable access to the oil market. The CME also offers options on calendar spreads which are useful as tactical trading and hedging tools given the cyclicality in the oil market. PART 2: TURNING UP THE HEAT ON WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES Travel Rebound & China Re-opening. Air travel is rebounding. Global air traffic was at 75% of its pre-pandemic levels in November 2022 as per IATA. Pandemic restrictions in China held it back. With China having re-opened its borders, air traffic growth has taken off. The International Energy Administration (IEA) mentioned in its latest report that Chinese domestic air traffic had rebounded sharply in January and was well above pre-pandemic levels by February. The IEA predicts that overall global oil demand growth will increase by two million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023. It is slower than the growth of 2.6 million bpd in 2022 but nevertheless taking demand to its highest level of 102 million bpd. The OPEC expects crude oil demand to increase by 2.3 million bpd in 2023, with Chinese demand growing by 710,000 bpd. Both OPEC and IEA have lifted their forecasts for demand from China given the surprising reopening pace. Nevertheless, banking crisis, recession risk, and economic uncertainty continues to weigh in and might dampen demand. US Strategic Reserves Running at 40 Year Lows The US Department of Energy’s (DoE) Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is a reserve set up in 1975 following the oil embargo of the 1970s. These reserves are used to tackle tail events causing significant disruption to global oil supply. Last few years, there have been one too many tail events leading to the depletion of SPR. The DoE released a record 266 million barrels of crude from SPR to contain scorching inflation unseen in 40+ years. The US has signalled that it may take several years to refill the SPR and that it may never reach previous baseline of 600 million barrels given high prices. Refilling the reserves can take a long time. In the 80s, it took DoE 15 months to fill 100 million barrels. In the 2000s it took even longer – almost 2.5 years – to fill 100 million barrels. Regardless of time taken, the need to replenish is certain. The DoE has signalled that it will refill when prices trade between $67-$72 a barrel. Hence, this price range serves as a strong support and floor for WTI prices. Rotation out of Risk Off Assets. Collapse of SVB and Credit Suisse has lit up forgotten fears. Financial markets suffered a massive tailspin. Liquidity easing measures by central banks have helped assuage worries but contagion concerns remain. Heightened economic uncertainty and recessionary fears plunged crude prices to their lowest levels in more than a year, even below the SPR replenishment price range. Risk sirens are blowing loud. Unsurprisingly, investors have sought shelter in haven assets such as gold and treasuries. If measures to contain the crisis proves adequate, investors will rotate back fuelling a breezy recovery in energy prices. Supply disruptions serves as a solid tailwind. Oil demand is critical, so is supply. Last December, OPEC+ conveyed its intent to cut output by 2 million bpd in 2023. Although pre-existing production shortfalls have kept OPEC+ output below their targets, these cuts are expected to translate to 1 million bpd of real supply shortfall. Adding fuel to fire, last week a legal dispute in the middle east has led to Iraqi oil exports via Turkey to be entirely halted, disrupting 400k bpd of supply. Oil prices are sensitive to supply disruptions. Persistent disruptions will drive prices high. MARKET PARTICIPANTS ARE STILL NET LONG AND BULLISH CRUDE OIL The CFTC COT report dated March 21 indicates that investors in the Other Reportable category nearly doubled their net long position on CL Futures from before the start of the banking crisis. However, the Managed Money category showed that these investors reduced net long positions by 65%. These investors have rotated into safe havens such as precious metals. Despite the reduction, these investors still remain net long on CL Futures. A shift in market sentiment could quickly have these investors piling into CL Futures. The put/call ratio on CL options is 0.56. For every oil bear, there are about two oil bulls. In fact, this ratio has actually fallen since the banking crisis began suggesting that investors are even more bullish on oil. TRADE SET UP This case study argues that a long position in WTI Crude Oil Futures expiring in September 2023 will deliver a 2.1x reward to risk ratio given the positive price drivers. CLU2023 offers exposure to 1,000 barrels of WTI crude and has a maintenance margin of $5,000 per lot. ● Entry: 72.78 ● Target: 79.53 ● Stop: 68.92 ● Profit at Target: $6,750 ● Loss at Stop: $3,860 ● Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.75x To hedge or trade with granular precision and for affordable access, investors could opt for CME’s Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures which offers exposure to one hundred barrels with a maintenance margin of $500 per lot. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CLU2023Long
by mintdotfinance
USOUSD (Crude Oil) Daily: 02/04/2023: Bull or Bear?! As you can see, after the downward movement, the price started correction around 64$. Well now, the crude oil price is on an important level. It is daily resistance, the price is near 0.705 Fibo. level (Optimal trading level) and some other reason that can pull the price down. On the other side, The momentum of this correction was high that it may cause the price to reach higher levels and then fall. I must point out that the demand zone specified in the chart is strong and can temporarily keep the price above this range, and if not much selling power enters the market, the price may break the supply zone. Overall, I see this chart as bearish and believe that the price will fall from here or from the supply zone. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️02/04/2023 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by VahidTradingCR
1