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WTI CRUDE OIL Target hit. Now prepare for the top.WTI Crude Oil hit the MA200 (4h) today for the first time since March 9th. We got our target hit from buying at the bottom (chart in the end of analysis) and now we are switching to selling as the price is closer to the top of the 3-month Channel Down pattern. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price as the price completed a +16% rise, matching the strongest rally so far this year. Targets: 1. 67.00 (Support 1). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is forming the very same peak pattern as all previous tops since December. Similar to the bottom formation when we started buying. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: This is a continuation of this trading plan:
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingBrokersView
15
Special Report: Celebrating 40 Years of Crude Oil FuturesNYMEX: WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ) On March 30, 1983, New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) launched futures contract on WTI crude oil. This marked the beginning of an era of energy futures. WTI is now the most liquid commodity futures contract in the world. It’s 1.7 million daily volume is equivalent to 1.7 billion barrels of crude oil and $125 billion in notional value. For comparison, global oil production was 89.9 million barrels per day in 2021. Looking back at 1983, exactly 40 years ago: • NYMEX was primarily a marketplace for agricultural commodities, with Maine Potato Futures being its biggest contract; • NYMEX was a small Exchange with 816 members, mainly local traders and brokers; • Known as Black Gold, crude oil was a strategic commodity regulated by governments and monopolized by the Big Oil, the so-called “Seven Sisters”; • Pricing of crude oil was not a function of free market but controlled by the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries (OPEC), an oil cartel. The birth of crude oil futures contract was a remarkable story of financial innovation and great vision. Facing a “Mission Impossible”, NYMEX successfully pulled it off. At the helm of the century-old Exchange was Michel Marks, its 33-year-old Chairman, and John E. Treat, the 37-year-old NYMEX President. The “Accidental Chairman” Michel Marks came from a long-time NYMEX member family. His father, Francis Q. Marks, was a trading pit icon and influential member. Since high school, the younger Marks worked as a runner on the trading pit for his family business. After receiving an Economics degree from Princeton University, Michel Marks returned to NYMEX as a full-time member, trading platinum and potatoes. In 1977, the entire NYMEX board of directors resigned, taking responsibility for the Potato Futures default from the prior year. Michel Marks was elected Vice Chairman of the new Board. He was 27 years old. One year later, the Chairman at the time suffered a stroke. Michel Marks replaced him as the new NYMEX Chairman. At 28, he’s the youngest leader of any Exchange in the 175-year history of modern futures industry. White House Energy Advisor John E. Treat served in the US Navy in the Middle East and later worked as an international affairs consultant in the region. He received an Economics degree in Princeton and a master’s degree in international relations from John Hopkins. During the Carter Administration (1977-1981), Treat worked at the US Department of Energy. He served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Affairs and sat on the National Security Council and the Federal Energy Administration. In his capacity, Treat was at the center of the formation of US energy policy. After President Carter lost his reelection bid, Treat left Washington in 1981. At the time, NYMEX was exploring new contracts outside of agricultural commodities. One possible direction was the energy sector, where NYMEX previously listed a Heating Oil contract with little traction in the market. With his strong background, Treat was recruited by NYMEX as a senior vice president. A year later, after then President Richard Leone resigned, Treat was nominated by Chairman Marks to become NYMEX President. He was 36 years old. The Birth of WTI Crude Oil Futures In 1979, the Islamic Revolution in Iran overthrew the Pahlavi dynasty and established the Islamic Republic of Iran, led by Shiite spiritual leader Ayatollah Khomeini. Shortly after, the Iran-Iraq War broke out. Daily production of crude oil fell sharply, and the price of crude oil rose from $14 to $35 per barrel. This event was known as the second oil crisis. It triggered a global economic recession, with U.S. GDP falling by 3 percent. After President Reagan took office in 1981, he introduced a series of new policies, known as Reaganomics, to boost the U.S. economy. The four pillars that represent Reaganomics were reducing the growth of government spending, reducing federal income taxes and capital gains taxes, reducing government regulation, and tightening the money supply to reduce inflation. In terms of energy policy, the Reagan administration relaxed government regulations on domestic oil and gas exploration and relaxed the price of natural gas. NYMEX President John Treat sensed that the time was ripe for energy futures. He formed an Advisory Committee to conduct a feasibility study on the listing of crude oil futures. His strategic initiative received the backing of Chairman Michel Marks, who in turn gathered the support of the full NYMEX membership. Arnold Safir, an economist on the advisory board, led the contract design of WTI crude oil futures. The underlying commodity is West Texas Intermediate produced in Cushing, Oklahoma. The delivery location was chosen for the convenience of domestic oil refineries. WTI oil contains fewer impurities, which results in lower processing costs. US refineries prefer to use WTI over the heavier Gulf oil. WTI trading code is CL, the abbreviation of Crude Light. Contract size is 1,000 barrels of crude oil. At $73/barrel, each contract is worth $73,000. Due to the profound impact of crude oil on world economy, NYMEX lists contracts covering a nine-year period. On March 29, 1983, the CFTC approved NYMEX's application. The next day, WTI crude oil futures traded on the NYMEX floor for the first time. Competing for the Pricing Power Now that crude oil futures were listed. Initially, only NYMEX members and speculators were trading the contracts. All the oil industry giants sat on the sidelines. John Treat knew that without their participation, the futures market could not have meaningful impact on the oil market, not to mention a pricing power over crude oil. In early 1980s, the global oil market was monopolized by seven Western oil companies, known as the "Seven Sisters". Together, they control nearly one-third of global oil and gas production and more than one-third of oil and gas reserves. 1) Standard Oil of New Jersey, later became Exxon; 2) Standard Oil of New York, later became Mobil Oil Company; It merged with Exxon in 1998 to form ExxonMobil; 3) Standard Oil of California, later became Chevron; It took over Texaco in 2001, and the combined company is still named Chevron; 4) Texaco, collapsed in 2001 and was taken over by Chevron; 5) Gulf Oil, which was acquired by Chevron in 1984; 6) British Persian Oil Company, operating in Iran, withdrew after the Iranian Revolution and then fully operated the North Sea oil fields, later British Petroleum ("BP"); 7) Shell, an Anglo-Dutch joint venture. Treat's background as President Carter's energy adviser played a key role. After nearly a year of hard work, the first Big Oil entered the NYMEX crude oil trading floor. However, it was not until five years later that all Seven Sisters became NYMEX members. OPEC producers tried to boycott the crude oil futures market. However, as trading volume grew, they eventually gave in, first by Venezuela and then the oil producers in the Middle East. Interestingly, the Middle Eastern oil producers started out by trading COMEX gold futures, probably as a hedge against oil prices. Gold has been a significant part in the Middle Eastern culture for long. As the main buyers of gold, the Arabs buy more gold when their pockets are filled with rising oil prices, and conversely, they sell gold when oil revenues fall and their ability to buy gold decreases. With the participation of Big Oil and OPEC, coupled with an active crude oil options market, crude oil pricing power has shifted from the Middle East to NYMEX's trading floor by the end of the 1980s. WTI has also become a globally recognized benchmark for crude oil prices. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by JimHuangChicago
33
A potential buying opportunity in oilOil broke through another resistance level and now faces another resistance level at 73.00, which is also the meeting point of the upper trend line of the local ascending channel. Wait for it to rebound to retest the previously broken level at 71, where it will also meet the 38.20 Fibonacci level and a local upward trend line. If any signs of a reversal appear from there, it could be a buying opportunity up to 74.30. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let me know your thoughts in the comments, and show your support by liking the idea. Please follow if you're interested in more ideas like this. Your support is greatly appreciated!
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by Candlestick_OB
Overall bullish direction unchangedNews: The short-term impact of Saudi Arabia and Iran announcing the resumption of diplomatic relations on the international energy market is limited. However, in the long term, due to the impact of the development of new energy sources and reduced international investment, OPEC oil-producing countries hope to maintain oil prices at relatively high levels to achieve fiscal balance and ensure domestic financial income. This means that the expansion of OPEC's influence will be beneficial for the global oil market to stabilize and maintain at a relatively high level for a longer period. Technical Analysis: Crude oil is still volatile and closed lower this week, but the real body of the candlestick chart has not broken down. Therefore, it is possible to see a bullish candlestick chart next week, with a preference for low long positions. The weekly support level is around 75.6, and the resistance level is around 80, so it is possible to consider high short and low long positions. On Friday, the daily chart showed a bullish candlestick with a long shadow and closed at 74.7, suggesting an upward trend at the beginning of the week. The support level is around 76.1, and the daily trading position is uncertain, but a long position can be taken if it does not break down. If the market is volatile, it may give a buying opportunity near 75.3, with the target of breaking above 77.4 and possibly reaching above 1 USD. The recent strategy is based on two possibilities shown in the chart, and the second possibility is currently being followed. However, regardless of which possibility is followed, the overall direction is still bullish, and attention should be paid to the retracement of small cycles. Specific operations will be updated in real-time, and everyone should keep track of the market's real-time changes, remain calm, and make accurate judgments. All theories are just references.
TVC:USOILLong
by Navigation-h
Crude Oil (WTI) - Long; Load up on it!Just a near term play here on the anticipated, transitory USD weakness. The main chart ought to be self explanatory - just follow the arrows. (The dates in the chart are only denoted because I am building a sizable option position here, one part of which consists of diagonal spreads.) Fundamentally, Russian oil companies have already figured out - and are using to deliver -, alternate routes for most of their hydro-carbon exports, circumventing current and potential future EU sanctions. (Sales are already exceeding pre-sanctions levels!) As it turns out, contrary to EU and US delusions, Russian oil companies know their own businesses a lot better than their US or EU counterparts. - Who would've thought?! :-O The majority of the anticipated price fluctuations are conditioned on a near term, transitory USD weakness/fluctuations.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Nemo_Confidat
Crude oil: next target 80Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, a major US shale oil producer, stated at the CERAWeek energy conference held in Texas this week that oil prices have hit bottom and could surge 17% by summer. In an interview, Sheffield said that over the past year ending in December, US production growth was only about half of what was expected and the industry has been facing ongoing issues of declining refinery capacity and inventory. Over the past few months, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has fluctuated around $73-80 per barrel. On Thursday of this week, WTI crude oil prices hovered around $77 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices were around $83 per barrel. Sheffield expects oil production growth to slow significantly, although not necessarily to decline, due to the constraints of refinery capacity and inventory. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US produced an average of 11.9 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2022, lower than the record average of 12.3 million barrels per day in 2019. EIA predicts that daily oil production will be 12.4 million barrels per day this year. Sheffield believes that the US may recover to a production level of around 13 million barrels per day in two to three years, which is equivalent to the level recorded in November 2019. He added that this will be a "very slow pace." There are two reasons for the slow growth in US crude oil production: insufficient refinery capacity and limited inventory. Sheffield pointed out that "first, we don't have refinery capacity. If we increase drilling, service costs will rise another 20-30%, which will take away free cash flow. Second, this industry does not have enough inventory." He added, "Our estimate of free cash flow last year was $8 billion, and we expect free cash flow in 2023 to be only $4 billion." As for when oil prices will rise, Sheffield expects that "at some point this summer, WTI will break through $80 and move towards $90 per barrel." The market is changing rapidly, I hope everyone can seize the opportunity and make money The personal free guidance channel is open for a limited time, you are welcome to join
TVC:USOILLong
by Navigation-h
Crude Oil: Ideas and SolutionsCrude oil market trend analysis: Crude oil is still in a volatile state, with a bearish close this week but the body of the candlestick did not break through the support level. Therefore, a bullish close is not ruled out next week, and a long position with a bias towards the downside can be considered. The weekly support is around 75.6, with resistance around 80, and it is possible to consider a long position with a high short. On the daily chart, the price stabilized and rose on Friday, with a long upper shadow and a bullish close, suggesting a bias towards an initial rise at the beginning of next week. Support is around 76.1, and there is a long and short division within the day. If it does not break, a long position can be established first. If the market is volatile, there may be an opportunity to long around 75.3, with the first target above 77.4. Methods to resolve long and short positions: For investors with high-priced long or short positions, they can use rebound market trends to resolve their positions or reduce positions at a high level. Once the market changes, stop-loss positions should be established and positions should be reversed to compensate for losses. For investors with mid-priced long or short positions, they can temporarily observe and not rush to cut positions. If there are opportunities in the market, they can reduce positions appropriately, add positions based on trends combined with technical analysis, and compensate for losses. For investors with low-priced long or short positions, they can use the market downturn to resolve their positions or reduce positions at a low level. Once the market changes, stop-loss positions should be established and positions should be reversed to compensate for losses. For friends who have positions in the market, since I do not know the specific details of your position, it is difficult to provide corresponding strategies to resolve your positions. If you need to resolve your problem, you can enter a personal free channel for further information.
TVC:USOILLong
by Navigation-h