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WTI OIL 13 March AnalysisWTI Oil has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on the price chart, which is a technical analysis pattern that appears when the highs and lows of the price action converge towards each other, forming a triangle shape. This pattern indicates a period of consolidation or indecision in the market, as buyers and sellers are evenly matched, causing the price to fluctuate within a tight range. Traders often watch for a confirmation of either a breakout or breakdown from this pattern, which can indicate a potential trend reversal or continuation. It's important to use additional indicators such as volume, momentum, and moving averages to confirm and evaluate the strength of the move before taking action. The crucial area to monitor is illustrated on the chart, and traders should be cautious of false breakouts. Make necessary move during this breakout or breakdown.
TVC:USOIL
by arnvon1213
WTICOUSD Ready for next long? it's been a while guys! So technically I'm a fibo guy, a test was conducted between 0.5 - 0.618 zone. and friday last 4 hours session retested the 0.5. Zooming out, with what is happening in the world, there's a chance it will dip even further as the world needs more investment for Oil and Gas industry. Short term view, I see a raise in oil to 78 or extend to 79.2 but fundamentally, in long term, in order to have more investment to occur, price has to be affordable for big players to enter. while reading the news, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait all plan to raise their oil production capacity this decade where we will see Supply > Demand in future. Till then, trade safe!
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by shiyishiyi
Will crude oil continue to rebound strongly? Long or short?In the crude oil market, due to the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and bullish expectations for Chinese demand, concerns that the Federal Reserve's more aggressive interest rate increases will slow economic growth and weaken oil consumption have limited the rebound in oil prices, so the crude oil market is still uncertain. Judging from the trend, the current crude oil has rebounded strongly in the short term after fluctuating at a low level, but it is not enough to change the daily shorting situation, indicating that the overall trend of crude oil at a large level is still weak.Although the short-term rebound is shown on the 2-hour level chart, the short-term rebound is quite strong, but the pressure is heavy above, and the short-term continuity is a problem. It may continue slightly, but it is difficult to say how much room there is to continue without breaking the low range for the time being.Short-term may be accompanied by resistance loops, the market has returned to operate within the weak range. In terms of strategy, yesterday's thinking was also high-level shorting, but today's thinking is still high-level, supplemented by low-level long-selling. Crude oil is shorted near 77.8-78, and the first target is near 75.5 In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Blessed_V
2
Harnessing Gains from Mean Reversion in WTI Crude FuturesThere are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics. Fortunately, not always. Statistics enables investors and traders in financial and commodity markets. In statistics, mean is also known as the average. It is a number that represents the entire data set. Mean is the sum of the data set divided by number of data points in it. For example, in a group of six men who weigh between 70kg to 80kg with an interval of two kilograms apart, the mean weight of the group is 75kg. Previously, Mint published two case studies looking at WTI crude oil futures. a short position and a long position . Both of these case studies were centered upon the same range-bound price action of WTI futures. Mean Reversion in Financial & Commodity Markets In financial markets, mean refers to the average of all the data observations. For example, let's say in WTI futures, it refers to the average price of a barrel of WTI futures over the observed period. For commodity traders, mean and reversion to the mean is a godsend. Reversion to the mean is a consistent occurrence in finance. Especially in crude oil, ample academic research shows that crude oil prices tend to mean revert. In other words, crude oil prices has a tendency to stray away from the mean but will eventually retrace back to the longer term average. Asset prices oscillate around the average. The bigger the diversion from the mean, the higher the probability that prices will revert to it. Harnessing Mean Reversion in Financial Markets An astute trader can identify the pattern embedded in the price. Such traders carefully ride the path of the asset prices to gain from it and switch their positions around when prices start to trace back. This phenomenon has led to the development of many investing and trading strategies that involve the buying & selling assets whose prices have veered away from their historical averages. At its core, trading the mean reversion strategy involves buying the asset whose values have fallen below the long-term average and waiting for prices to recover back up to the long-term mean before selling it. Trading strategies are based on either taking advantage of mean reversion or momentum in the market. Markets spend greater time in consolidation mode relative to trending phases. Incorporating mean reversion in trading strategies is not only important but potentially lucrative. For those assets, whose prices are far above the mean, the strategy would then involve selling the asset first in the hope of a price correction to the mean. When prices fall, the asset is bought back at a lower price to lock in the gain. Mean Reversion is not Guaranteed. Take Caution. Readers to take caution that mean reversion is not guaranteed. Unexpected highs or lows could indicate a shift in the norm. A significant price change could be structural indicating a new normal. The structural shift may provide a significant headwind or tailwind to asset prices in the longer run. Technical Indicators to help identify Mean Reversion This paper aims to illustrate mean reversion using WTI Crude Oil futures. Crude oil prices are known to follow Brownian motion with mean reversion, according to academic literature. WTI Crude Oil futures follow a lognormal distribution with slowly changing volatility. Brownian motion? Lognormal distribution? Park them aside for now. Mint will cover those topics in another educational paper in near future. Effective mean reversion involves effective timing of trade entry and exits. Trend following indicators, such as moving averages help to identify patterns. Oscillators, such as the RSI, also enable investors to identify overbought and oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands is a complementary indicator to identify mean reversion trend. Mean Reversion in Crude Oil Prices in 2022 and 2023 WTI crude oil prices soared in the first half of 2022 as the war in Ukraine clouded supply projections after sanctions were placed on Russian oil and gas by the US and EU. This reduced the available supply pushing prices higher. However, during second half of the year, the gloomy global economic outlook and recession risks in the US meant that demand for crude oil started to drop. Moreover, COVID outbreaks in China meant that the largest importer of Crude Oil had lesser appetite to buy. Over the past 3 months, WTI Crude Oil has traded in a tight range between $70 to $80 a barrel. The reasons behind the range bound price action are: At the bottom end of the range, there is strong support between $67-72 as that is the price range that the US DoE plans on purchasing oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. At the top end of the range, supply outpacing demand, as well as the availability of cheap Russian oil for major consumers – China and India – limits the upside potential for oil. Capex into new oil exploration has dropped as the world starts to shift towards alternative energy sources. Despite the SPR currently at a 40-year low, the Biden administration continues to draw more crude from the reserves to limit fuel price inflation in the US & keeping WTI crude prices lower.
NYMEX:MCL1!Education
by mintdotfinance
USOIL WTI cautiously bullishWith the 4% drop on Tuesday, it appears that USOIL is likely to experience some moderate fluctuations over the next few trading sessions. While there are a number of factors that could impact price action, it seems that the market is currently in a relatively stable state despite the dump. I would like to outline three potential scenarios: USOIL could see some gains early today as the falling wedge looks set for reversal. There may also be some resistance at $77.40, which could limit the extent of any upward movement. with a potential retest of $76.06 Watch out for a potential retest of previous low ($76.07) before finding upwards momentum. Overall, and right now, I think it is difficult to predict exactly how USOIL will perform today and tomorrow but I'm cautiously bullish plus it's Friday! Trade safely and don't take my word for it! ❤️📈🔥
TVC:USOILLong
by foxvolta
1
USOUSD Daily: 22/02/2023: Will buyers push the price up? As you can see, the price is in the bearish structure and we expect the price to see lower levels. I am bearish till the price is below the weekly resistance. But for now, we can see that price move in the trading range for a while and it means there is huge liquidity on both sides of this range. In addition, we are under 50% of the previous bearish wave so we are in discount and searching for a buy setup. In that case, from here or low time frame demand zone with low time frame confirmation we can go long. our first target can be the supply zone and then 50% Fibo level and finally, above 83.31 we can close our position. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️22/02/2023 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
FX:USOILLong
by VahidTradingCR
13
US Oil - Last downward leg- Pt.2- About to become impulsive?Hello traders, in our previous posts about oil we highlighted how we expect cycle wave 2 to complete around the 57-63 area with the final C wave of the corrective structure. We then showed how we applied leading indicators to obtain confirmation of more downside: . We entered at the golden zone (61.8%fibo) strong volume rejection. We are short from @78.18 aiming to ride the microcount outlined in the chart. Stop loss on entry as per the update in previous post. Cheers GMR
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by GMR-Capital
WTI: It all comes down to the green… 💵🌿It all comes down to the green . This saying is especially true for WTI as it has yet to dive into the green zone between $70.12 and $35.77. To get this done, the course should push further off the upper side of the turquoise trend channel and drop below the support at $70.08. This should grant WTI direct access to the green zone, where it should finish wave 2 in green before heading northwards again. However, a 32% chance remains that WTI could turn upwards and climb above the resistance at $82.64, in which case the course would develop wave alt.(b) in blue above the upper resistance line at $93.74 first before resuming the descent.
NYMEX:CL1!
by MarketIntel
1
AW WTI Crude Oil - Learn The Waves To Never Miss This...This is just an update to show you how you could of already been in what will be a very profitable trade. Linked below in related ideas is the video that told you to get in at the levels mentioned in this video. I make these video to show you how learning the waves will make you an amazing trader. You will catch moves that some people only dream of in hindsight. All the hard work was put into making the AriasWave methodology over many years. We will see just how insanely profitable this trade is once we hit those lows. How will we know when the low is in? ...I will be tracking all these moves as we progress through the coming recession. This recession will be the last recession before the huge bull market that awaits us once it's done. I will also be posting another idea soon on how to enter this trade on a pull back when I see the right patterns. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
TVC:USOILShort
by AriasWave
3
WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKUS YoY CPI came above expectations yesterday, which led to expectations of further push of the prices. Although US Oil cushion reserve came above expectations, OPEC reported declined production of the month of January, and the expectations are for further increase of global demand for the crude oil. On the 1H graph the price had broke the resistance of the Flag pattern, suggesting a start of a bullish movement, where, if continues, the price might test levels of 79.63 In the opposite scenario the price might fall to levels of 79.03 Both MACD and RSI indicators are confirming the bullish scenario. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by legacyFXofficial
Oil grows bearish but SPR refill loomsDespite OPEC cutting its output by an estimated 60 000 barrels per day in January 2023, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil dropped more than 10% from its high of $82.60. This price action follows a series of wild swings within the wide range between $70 and $83. We expect high volatility in the oil market to persist in the first quarter of 2023. Indeed, we think there is a high likelihood of USOIL falling below $70. However, with the U.S. administration seeking to refill its SPR, such a price drop is likely to be short-lived. As conclusion, we think oil will remain stuck within the wide range for a while longer. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. Since mid-November 2022, the price can be seen trading within the wide range between $70 and $83. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows indicate two technical developments which contradict each other. The first is a bullish crossover between 20-day and 50-day SMAs; the second is the subsequent price drop below these moving averages. These false and contradictory signals are common for moving averages when the price trends sideways. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. If the price breaks below Support 1, it will bolster the bearish odds in the short term. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
31
USOIL 13th FEBRUARY 2023Oil prices fell below US$81 after surging more than 8 percent last week. Although Moscow will reduce supply by half a million barrels per day by March 2023 due to tightening flows, investors remain wary that the Federal Reserve needs to continue pushing interest rates higher to tame inflation. The Fed's push has weighed on the appetite for riskier assets including commodities. Global crude oil prices weakened on concerns about a global slowdown, offsetting sentiment of Russia's plan to curb supply in retaliation for Western sanctions.
TVC:USOILShort
by DNP-FX
3