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Long WTI & Short Brent as price differential tightens?Oil Brent continues to trade at a premium of more than $8 per barrel to WTI oil , with the price difference between the two oil benchmarks increasing significantly and well above its historical average this year. One of the primary drivers of the widening Brent/WTI price spread has been a significant increase in the availability of North American crude, which has created more downward price pressure on the WTI market. The US government has injected180 million barrels of crude into the market through scheduled Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases as of October 18, 2022, to help resolve the market supply disruption created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to help cut energy costs. U.S. SPR releases are now complete, and crude oil reserves in the United States are at their lowest point since 1983, according to the latest estimates from EIA. The possibility that the Democrats would suffer a loss in the midterm elections in two weeks might rule out the possibility of more SPR releases being made at a later stage. In this scenario, the forces that pushed the price of WTI below that of Brent would diminish significantly. As a result, the price spread between the two oil benchmarks may return to tighter levels. Going long on WTI and short on Brent is one way to reflect the idea of closing this oil price gap. Throughout 2021, the difference between WTI and Brent was on average about -$2/bbl and ranged from -$4.5/bbl to parity levels. A mean reversion to the period prior to US SPR releases would suggest an increase from current prices of about $6.5/bbl. If, on the other side, the spread widens again and breaks through the -$10/bbl threshold, the strategy will be proven incorrect.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Capitalcom
10
USOIL - WTI Crude Oil - 1Y Chart ReviewToday you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1Y linear scale chart for WTI Crude Oil (USOIL). The chart shows the price has been moving in a descending channel with the current year (2022) looking similar to 2008. Using the Fibonacci Retracement tool, I estimated the price reviewing the next 6 years showing similarities to the price from 2008-2014. It's important to keep in mind that MACD possible bullish cross may be coming next year as well as upward momentum in the Stochastic RSI. RSI also has room for growth. Prior to the price moving higher, I believe that the price will come down lower sometime next year before moving higher very quickly. This may fall in line with the "recession" and economic challenges the global economy is facing. As always, this is a prediction with a great deal of possibilities to come as well as my opinions and knowledge included in the chart. Anything is likely at this point! If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
TVC:USOIL
by MillionaireEconomics
WTI: StretchingWTI is done recovering and has finished wave b in blue. Already, it is stretching upwards, striving to work on our primary scenario. We expect the marker crude to climb above the resistance at $97.66 and into the turquoise zone between $99.97 and $113.53, where it should complete wave b in turquoise. After this feat, WTI should relax once more and fall into the green zone between $70.12 and $35.77 to conclude the overarching downwards movement. There is a 35% chance, though, that WTI could tackle this task directly, dropping below the support at $76.25 earlier already.
NYMEX:CL1!
by MarketIntel
WTI oil - The downtrend is not done with the oil market Previously, we stated that we wanted to avoid setting a price target for the short-term and medium-term because of high volatility and rumors (then actions) affecting OPEC's supply. Instead, we said that we would focus on our long-term price target of 70 USD. Since then, the price of WTI oil had fallen approximately 4% before erasing some losses. Today, we are still committed to our long-term price target and expect volatility in the oil market to stay persistent, with the U.S. and OPEC attempting to reach their own economic and geopolitical interests. In addition to that, we are growing even more pessimistic on the topic of demand because of several reasons. First, the stock market has been in a bear market for the past few months, dramatically raising prospects of lower oil demand over the coming months (especially as the FED will continue to tighten and worsen economic conditions). Second, the OPEC recently confirmed this same narrative about the declining demand when it slashed its demand growth forecast for 2023 from 2.6 million bpd to 2.3 million bpd. Third, a likelihood of more strategic petroleum reserves being released by the U.S. to dampen the price. Besides that, our views are also supported by technical factors, pointing to liquidity issues in the overall market. We believe this tremendously increases the odds of a stock market crash. As if it was not enough, futures oil contracts manifest backwardation. Therefore, we voice a word of caution to investors. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- performed a bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.01 We introduced the setup above yesterday when the price was near its low. Now, we believe that the time is running out quickly for the long trade. Therefore, we would like the price to break below the short-term support to support the bearish thesis in the short-term term. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and MACD are bearish. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
19
OPEC+ vs. the US: Who will succeed to control Oil Prices ?Technicals: - Potential Reversal from 4H Order Block to the upside or - Downtrend continuation to the next 4H Order Block (Price Range: $ 78 - $ 76) Fundamentals: - OPEC+ Production cut announcement (5-10-2022) >> Will push price higher if successful - US-led efforts to ease supply crunch. >> Downtrend to continue to Price Range: $ 78 - $ 76 if successful OPEC+ vs. the US: Who Controls Oil Prices? The directional bias of oil prices in the coming weeks will be determined by the fundamental impact of the US vs OPEC+
TVC:USOIL
by sarvanramzan
Crude oil Short Term BearishThe idea here is about crude oil. I am short term bearish on crude oil due to following observation. 1. Cypher harmonic pattern completed on daily chart. The Cypher harmonic pattern is a technical analysis formation indicating a price-action reversal. The Cypher pattern, which can be either bullish or bearish, has five points (X, A, B, C, and D) and four legs (XA, AB, BC, and CD). Like any other harmonic pattern, the theory behind the Cypher chart pattern is that there is a strong correlation between Fibonacci ratios and price movements. The Cypher harmonic pattern has been historically proven to be a fairly reliable and accurate chart pattern. According to various studies, the pattern has an accuracy rate of around 70%. 2.Stochastic Oscillator The intersection of two lines is considered to be a signal that a reversal may be in the works, as it indicates a large shift in momentum from day to day. 3.Bollinger Bands 20 day moving average, bands at 2 standard deviations Looking at the lower band for profit target. 4.On-balance volume (OBV) OBV shows crowd sentiment that can predict a bullish or bearish outcome. OBV is on continuous decline. Last but not least 5. MA 200 over 50 aka Death cross 02 September 2022. The price was $95.23 Previous cross happened on 02 September 2020 MA 50 over 200 aka Golden cross The price was $41.40 I am aware that it is little late for the analysis, but i feel there is more to come. That's what they say "Something is better than nothing". Looking forward... The above is an Educational idea only and not any kind of financial or investment advice. So please do your own DD (Due Diligence) before any kind of investment. Do leave your valuable feedback & comments for any improvisations.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by ShoibShafi
Buy WTIGood day everyone! Don't forget to put your thumbs up and write comment if you like the idea 📈 #WTI (Texas Oil) Oil on the D1 timeframe forms a reversal pattern "H&S" after the formation of the right shoulder of the figure and the breakdown of the resistance neck line, I will consider Long with targets of $100 per barrel DISCLAIMER: The opinion of the author may not coincide with yours! Keep this in mind and consider in your trading transactions before making a trading decision.
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by airstels
WTI oil - Deteriorating demand to weight on the higher oil priceSince our short-term price target of 80 USD was taken out a few weeks ago, we abstained from setting short and medium-term price targets because of very high volatility in the oil market. Despite that, we stuck to the long-term price target of 70 USD, to which we remain committed. Our views are based mainly on fundamental factors concerning the deteriorating global demand for oil, with the OPEC slashing demand for 2023 and China maintaining its zero covid policy for longer. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- strive to perform a bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bearish. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows hint at bullish breakouts (above SMAs) and subsequent invalidation. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and MACD are bearish. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture shows the weekly chart of USOIL and two moving averages. The yellow arrow points to the impending bearish crossover between two SMAs; if successful, it will bolster the bearish case. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
22
WTI Crude Oil headed for 96?Following a 3-day pullback from 93.64, WTI produced a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart which closed back above the 20-day EMA. Given the strength of the rally from the 76.30 low, we suspect a corrective low has been found. The 4-hour chart shows that there was a lot of trading activity around 87.60 since the September low (which marks the volume POC / point of control). But also note that yesterday's low held above a previous bullish engulfing candle on the 4-hour chart, rebounded above the 200-bar EMA and a bullish engulfing candle closed firmly above trend resistance. Prices are pulling back in Asia so we're now looking for opportunities to enter long above the 88.0 area / monthly R1 pivot point, and anticipate prices to retest the 94 highs and head for 96 - or even the high around 97.66.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
WTI continues to defy the strong dollarWTI has been one of the few markets to stand up to recent dollar strength, with prices rising over 16% last week alone. A strong bullish trend has developed on the 1-hour WTI chart. The 20 and 50-bar EMA’s have provided dynamic support throughout the trend and may provide bullish opportunities with a pullback towards them. The 20-bar EMA is near the daily pivot point and the 50-bar is near the $90 handle and daily 1 pivot. The next area for bulls to consider is around $94 or the daily R1 pivot.
CITYINDEX:USCRUDEOILCFDLong
by CityIndex