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Wticrude

$70 crude coming? A major (bearish) development in oilThe technicals in crude continue to break down as the buyers stand aside – the 26 Sept swing low looks close to being taken out at $76.61 and a break here sees $65 come into play – it does feel like these lows will be tested, so a short bias is preferred. The fact we see crude down 4% when copper is up 1% speaks to the EU price caps as the driver, over just a China Covid and an economic/demand story. I think it's important to look at the crude futures curve – On TradingView I have shown the difference between the continuous front month contract and August 2023 contracts (code CL1! -NYMEX: CLQ2023) – this is now eyeing inversion, having been as high as $11. 90 in October. This is a big development in the crude complex as it removes a key reason for funds/producers to hold longs for the roll down into the next contract on expiry. What else has caused the moves on the day? • Poor liquidity – everyone watching Ger vs JAP - obviously many market ballers are off now for US Thanksgiving • EU price caps on Russian exports came in a $65 to $70, perhaps higher than consensus – not that Russia will comply and work with countries that apply such caps – but I guess the view is given the caps are higher, and Russia is selling crude at discounts of c.$20 p/b, that these caps won't affect Russia supply • The DoE Weekly Inventory data showed a 3.7m drawer in crude inventories, however, the market caught onto a 3.06m build in gasoline inventories (most since July), while distillates rose by 1.72m. I always find with the inventory report the market will see what it wants to see, but on today’s report it’s the gasoline numbers that have won out • China Covid restrictions – obviously still highly fluid but it is influential on the demand side of crude’s driver – traders seeing new mobility controls in the city of Zhengzhou and PCR testing – we watch Beijing and Shanghai as always given the record case count sweeping the country. We gear up to the next OPEC meeting on 4 Dec, which could even more focus if price breaks $70 – we have our eyes on US payrolls then but the OPEC meeting could drive some solid cross-asset vol.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Pepperstone
WTI Crude Oil, Weekly (log), The 2008 AnalogyThe actual USOIL weekly chart is confusingly similar to the 2008 daily chart. By analogy, the oil price should go south even to twenty-something dollars. The current economic situation confirms it, as the leading economic indicator (LEI) announces a recession in the near future. Also, moving average analysis confirms it. I matched the closest smoothing moving average (53), which was support after by candle closes (two taps) a year ago. And now, the same moving average was a strong resistance also with two taps by candle closes/opens.
TVC:USOILShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
Observing this setup for the following 6-8 monthsThe winter is coming and global tensions are still rising, the war in eastern europe is not even yet in the phase where both parties are willing to sit down. It could be a long and bloody winter for Europe. I believe oil futures have been going down based on recession fears, but with signs that China will re-open I believe this will be balanced out. I believe that we're still 2-3 winters away from a recession which could bring the oil price down.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Owcheew8
USOIL - Deteriorating outlook On 7th November 2022, USOIL broke above the short-term resistance at 93.61$ and peaked at 93.73$. However, a few hours later, the breakout became invalidated, and the price started to drift lower. For the subsequent ten trading sessions, the price kept declining approximately 16% to a low of 77.24$ on the last Friday; before closing at 80.14$ that same day. In April 2021, we stated the oil market peaked, and the price was headed to 90$ in the long term, which was hit four months later. In addition to that, we provided several more short-term and medium-term price targets until the volatility started to pick up in late summer. Because of this elevated volatility, we announced that we would abstain from setting more price targets, except for a long-term one at 70$. Now, with the recession in full progress and the deteriorating outlook for the oil market, we are starting to reconsider the timestamp on our price target. We are considering updating the price target to medium-term (and potentially short-term after a while) depending on more oil market developments. With that being said, we will pay close attention to the rhetoric of the U.S. administration and the possibility of more SPR releases, which would lead to lower oil prices. Additionally, we will monitor the narrative of OPEC and other energy institutions for more oil market data that could suggest lesser oil demand and oil demand growth going forward. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD broke below 0 points, which is very bearish. RSI and Stochastic are also bearish. DM+ and DM- performed a bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Although the trend remains weak, Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is bearish. Stochastic and MACD are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
7
Year end Trade Inflation peak / Long YTD losers Short Winners- USD has probably peaked for 2022 post US CPI important release. - Into year end Trade - Contrarian Play is to Buy Losers (Coppers, NDX, US Equities, Gold), Sell Inflation winners (WTI, USD, Financial sector, Energy Equities). - In Commodities I chose WTI as a good proxy Technicals Long term Trend is negative on crude since the top in June 2022, we broke decisively on 50-week MA and trading under Systematic / CTA Positioning is still Long. Into year end with only 5 weeks left, it's highly likely that the Trend Trade will be unwound, based on very large Standard deviations moves that happened yesterday in macro Space (US10Y, USD, Crude, Equities)
MATBAROFEX:WTI1!Short
by ArisopeCapital
Going Long in WTI USD ( Trend Analysis )Hello Traders : WTI USD Forexcom Buy / Long Trade Plan. Entry Level @ FIB 23.6% Retracement 8782.5 Take Profit 1 @ FIB 78.6% Retracement 9123.0 Take Profit 2 @ 4 Hour Resistance 9233.2 Take Profit 3 @ 4 Hour Resistance / FIB Retracement 9305.8 Stop Loss @ Daily Support Level 8596.9 Lot Size : Portfolio Size 10000 Risk to Reward 1 : 1 Lot size 3 units @ 5% Risk TP 1 = Total PIPS in gain = 340.5 Profit 3.91 % TP 2 = Total PIPS in gain = 450.5 Profit TP 3 = Total PIPS in gain = 523.3 Profit Total PIPS in Stoploss = 185.6 Loss 2.05% Regards,
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by dilsnqamz
WTI oil - Global oil demand is set to fall with deeper recessionIn the recent past, we abstained from setting price targets for the short and medium term. Meanwhile, we became focused on the long-term price target of 70$, which stays in place as we continue to be bearish on USOIL. Our view is based on the deepening recession and falling oil demand. Yesterday, the IEA Executive Director, Faith Birol, said in his interview with Bloomberg during the COP27 summit, "The recent decision of OPEC+ to cut the production by two million barrels a day was definitely not helpful." Additionally, he said that this move by the cartel was fueling inflation in developing countries and may require a "rethink". If his words come true, the world could see temporary stabilization of USOIL prices between 80$ and 90$. However, all depends also on Joe Biden, who currently does not support more drilling activity. Since the stance of the U.S. administration might quickly change (with an even deeper recession and end of midterms) and send prices much lower, we pay close attention to the energy dispute between the U.S. and OPEC. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD show signs of exhaustion. DM+ and DM- are bullish but due to cross each other. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the hourly chart of USOIL and simple sloping support/resistance levels. Interestingly, the immediate sloping support was broken to the downside, which is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and MACD are neutral. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
14