Wticrude
Crude Oil in 4H time Frame.Hi Everyone,
Please see updated 4H chart, Oil already hit the support around 86 ready to test the key point at 90, if break there is likely 2 possible upside moment.
as we can see the oil will make range until the fed release their new hike Interest rates.
we also need see the next coming geopolitical movement from Russia , China and USA.
The oil embargo will also have an impact on price movements.
first possible range(4h - 1D):
80 - 110 USD
second possible range (4h - 1D):
75 - 103 USD
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i'll help you to have a great trade.
Please using good money management.
dont take any emotional trade.
Note:
Dont risk more than 0.2% on trending market
Dont risk more than 1% on ranging market
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on Gold , Oil , Nasdaq, SP500 , and some American, China, Japan, Indonesia stocks.
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Crude Oil Forecast 05/09/2022Oil bulls have gained decent traction as the announcement of production cuts seems on cards in the OPEC meeting on Monday. The cartel has already signaled for production cuts to offset the recent decline in oil prices. For the oil cartel, weaker prices are always considered an imbalance as they generate lower revenues for oil-exporting nations. Therefore, the oil cartel prefers to keep oil prices higher in order to accelerate revenues.
Will WTI Oil drop under 70?Since the double top marked by March and June's highs above 120, the price of Oil has started to fall and found support under 90 and under the neckline of the pattern.
Last week we have a false break above this neckline reversed with a strong bearish engulfing and Oil is trading again near 88 support (also an old resistance from Oct and Nov 2021)
The pressure seems to be on the downside and a clear break of support would confirm this outlook.
In such an instance we can have a continuation to the downside and a drop to 70 important horizontal support and also the measured target for the double top.
WTI Cude (OIL) WAITE TO BUY CONFARMANATION...
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair,
let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions,
the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be
satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watch list and see if
the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
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Natural Gas - A Maniac Market MakerI find the market makers of the Natural Gas Futures market to be particularly wild savages. The recent dump from $9.5~ to $5.3~ is a fine example of how difficult they make getting long.
They're like a world class bull at the rodeo. You get a lot of points if you can ride one, but their Buck Off % is like 90%+.
Natural Gas is going to $13-$15 and it will very likely do it before 2022 is out The reason is to make it so that North Americans can't afford to heat their homes, especially amid all the other inflation and losing money crushing the middle class.
But you should also know that this recent pump to $8.5 was both too direct and too easy. The shake out is coming, and it's not going to be very pleasant. Look for numbers in the low 6s and high 5s and look for these figures to come painfully fast and with little warning.
"Fundamentals" don't matter. You keep listening to a propaganda network masquerading as a public intelligence organization that calls itself "the news" and wondering why your compass is broken and you can't figure out what is going to happen.
Life is hard and nobody wants you to be rich. Nobody wants you to survive the economic depression that lies ahead. The idea of the establishment is that they will do what they have planned to do, and if you're good enough, you will make it. If you aren't good enough, you will be weeded out.
This is fundamentally evil, and while there remains hope and the evil will ultimately fail in its plans, these are nonetheless the scenarios that will unfold, because all of humanity has abetted this for more than two decades.
So, you have to do your best and stop going with the flow. Stop adding fuel to the flame.
Long NG1 at high 5s and low 6s with a stop under $5.30. The real target is beyond $10, but $10 is coming.
Natural Gas is unrealistically cheap in North America compared to Europe and other parts of the world right now. This won't last. But getting there on a long trade will not be so easy.
USOIL where to sell?USOIL has formed a strong bearish price action on a daily and higher timeframe. In the 4H timeframe, we see a significant expected retracement to the upside. Price is now currently approaching this important level of resistance. Upon rejection and price action confirmation, a selling opportunity may arise.
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WTI: Screeeeeech!Can you hear WTI’s brakes screeching from the chart? Well, we definitely can! Quite vehemently, WTI has hit the brakes just short of the bottom of the blue zone between $91.70 and $87.08 – and rightly so! There isn’t all that much room left to finish wave b in blue! In fact, WTI should complete it no later than the support at $85.73. Then, it should turn around and climb upwards, gradually crossing the resistances at $101.88 and at $105.24 to enter the turquoise zone between $107.12 and $119.94. There, it should finish wave b in turquoise, before moving downwards again. However, there is a 32% chance that WTI could drop below the support at $85.73, which would then trigger further descent.
How The European Energy Crisis Is Affecting The EuroThe euro-dollar exchange rate captures the value of the euro in terms of U.S. dollars. It’s one of the most widely tracked and significant global currency indicators, given that Europe is a major economic region with a strong currency, and many international financial transactions are denominated in euros. Moreover, the euro has been under pressure in recent months because of renewed concerns about European debt and fears that the European Central Bank may curtail its massive stimulus program too early (Injecting Billions of Euros into Eurozone debt - pandemic-era bond-buying program), which would make it harder for countries like Italy to service their debt. With all this in mind, let’s take a look at why the Euro Declined Against the US Dollar and hit a 20 Year Low recently.
The European Energy Crisis
Energy is a critical aspect of any economic outlook. As such, it is no surprise that Europe’s energy crisis has exacerbated its economic problems. Europe currently relies on Russia for approximately 50% of its natural gas. Europe’s heavy reliance on Russian gas is a major source of tension between the EU and Russia. The EU has placed sanctions on Russian energy firms, making it difficult for them to acquire equipment and technology they need to develop their energy infrastructure. That has left Europe with few viable options for alternative suppliers.
Effects of EU Sanctions against Russian
The EU’s Largest Member States Are Suffering
The most significant economic problems can be found in Europe’s largest economies: Italy, France, Germany, and Spain. And those four economies are suffering because of the energy crisis, a weak euro, Brexit, and rising interest rates. The euro has been trading at a relatively low level against the U.S. dollar for years. However, the euro’s weakness has recently accelerated, as the European Central Bank adopted a more hawkish tone. That has made it more expensive for other countries to buy euros. Ergo, pushing up borrowing costs for euro-zone countries that are heavily indebted like Italy, France, and Spain. It has also made it more expensive for the European Union’s most powerful economies to service their debt.
Political Instability
It’s important to mention political instability because it has been an ongoing issue in Europe for years, particularly in countries like Italy, France, and Germany. That’s led to significant political uncertainty that has kept investors away and made it more difficult for these countries to get the strong economic growth they need to deal with their debt problems. The United Kingdom has been a major trading partner with the EU, The political environment surrounding the Brexit has led to significant economic uncertainty.
Eurozone Growth Is Stagnant
One of the most important economic metrics is GDP growth, which is the rate at which an economy is producing goods and services. Eurozone GDP growth has been relatively low for years, and it recently fell to a 17-year low. That’s largely due to lack of investment in major economies like France, Germany, and Italy, which are the most significant contributors to the eurozone’s GDP. When the energy crisis hit the EU, businesses stopped investing in plant and equipment necessary for growth. As a result, GDP shrank throughout the region. That’s forced the European Central Bank to take strong action, including negative interest rates and quantitative easing. However, those policies have had only limited success, as Europe is still facing an investment drought.
European Union Debt Crisis
The EU debt crisis emerged in 2010 when major economies like Italy, Spain, and Greece racked up unsustainable debt loads. Although it has faded in recent years, it remains a major issue, particularly for Italy and Spain. That’s because the two countries have large debt loads, and they are suffering from slower growth, making it harder to service that debt. That’s created significant economic uncertainty, as investors have been reluctant to lend to these countries. The European Central Bank has stepped in, making it easier for these countries to borrow, including buying their debt. However, the ECB’s actions have also made it easier for other EU countries to borrow, which has contributed to the rise in interest rates that are hurting France and Germany.
ECB Tapering
As the energy crisis worsened and economic growth was weak throughout the European Union, the European Central Bank boosted its monetary stimulus to stave off a deeper downturn. That included purchases of billions of euros of assets, including government bonds, per month. That quantitative easing program has been credited with helping Europe’s major economies, particularly Germany, avoid a full-blown economic crisis, as well as keeping the value of the euro low. That has also bolstered economic growth in other EU countries, like France and Italy, that rely on exports to Germany. However, with the energy crisis easing and economic growth gaining momentum, the ECB began to taper its QE program, reducing monthly purchases to just €30 billion. boosting the borrowing costs of the European Union’s larger economies.
Oil Price Impact
The energy crisis has also driven up the price of oil and other commodities. That has put additional pressure on the EU’s most significant economies, as their industries have been affected by higher prices. That’s particularly true for France and Italy, which have been among the hardest hit by the energy crisis and oil price surge. That’s made it more difficult for those economies to export goods and services, which has contributed to the stagnation of their GDP.
Conclusion
The European energy crisis has been a major problem for the EU. It has driven up the price of oil and gas, while making it more difficult for countries to import those resources. That has put the EU at an economic disadvantage when compared to other major regions, like the United States. That’s made it harder for the EU to recover from a variety of economic issues, including a low growth rate, high debt levels, and political instability. It remains to be seen if the EU can overcome its energy crisis and get back on track to economic prosperity.
EUROZONE INFLATION RATE
Important Upcoming Events that will cause volatility in the market
WTI oil - Change in a rhetoric of the OPECIn our last idea on oil, we outlined a scenario for a downtrend correction if the breakout above the sloping resistance took place. A few days later, the breakout occurred, and technical indicators turned bullish. Additionally, a slight change in the rhetoric of OPEC came, with Saudi Arabia and other members hinting at looming production cuts. This development forces us to abandon our price targets because of OPEC's ability to maintain a floor or a lid on oil prices. We will update our thoughts as we get more information concerning the cartel's production. Until then, we abstain from setting price targets for USOIL.
Illustration 1.01
The chart above shows the bullish breakout above the prior resistance.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is bullish. The same applies to Stochastic and MACD. However, MACD stays below 0 points; if it breaks above, it will be bullish. DM+ and DM- performed bullish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI strives to reverse to the upside; the same applies to Stochastic and MACD. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral/slightly bullish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOIL 100.00 The chart shows the uptrend.
USOIL on the 4-hour chart bounced for the second time above the 91 - 92 area.
The market after testing the 0.618 Fibonacci support is now trading for further resistance.
Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is bullish. In general, the daily-weekly time frame is bullish.
DISCLAIMER: This review is not intended to encourage the buying or selling of any particular security. Also, it should not be a basis for any trading action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly recommended before entering into a trade.
USOIL - The downtrend continuesIn the first quarter of 2022, we warned market participants about the peaking conditions in the oil bull market. Since then, our predictions came true, and USOIL dropped over 30% from its highs, hitting our 100 USD and 90 USD price targets. At the moment, we still remain bearish on WTI oil with a medium-term price target of 80 USD. Our views are based on technical and fundamental factors.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows USOIL down approximately 33% from its 2022 highs. At the moment, we pay close attention to the sloping resistance; a breakout above it will be a bullish sign, potentially hinting at the correction of the downtrend.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKWTI rose in value in response of potential OPEC+ cuts and conflict in Libya. This possibility of supply cuts was enough to offset the effect of the strong US dollar.
WTI broke the resistance line of the ascending triangle pattern, a bullish outlook, supported as well by the RSI and MACD indicators.
The instrument might test its previous support level at 99.70, but if the break turns out to be false, the instrument might test its previous support at 94.70
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USOIL 23rd AUGUST 2022Oil prices briefly surged in mid-trade due to a push to raise the Fed's benchmark interest rate. However, prices eased back after investors believed that the US central bank's policy this month was to maintain interest rates.
Another factor, the US dollar strengthened again to its highest level in five weeks, which limited the increase in crude oil prices. This is because oil becomes more expensive for buyers with non-US dollar currencies.
US Dollar Index
Oil prices will not be too bearish, this is due to the prospect of higher demand entering the winter season.
WTI bearish momentum continuesWe've been bearish all last week on WTI, taken shorts on any valid bearish signals and lower highs that were completed.
We expect WTI to head down to the low 80$ mark for the time being.
Technically there is a big bearish breakout pattern on the 1D chart, where a valid breakout occurred followed by a retest, see attached idea.
We continue to remain bearish on WTI and sell any valid sell signals.
Crude WTI Oil (Is the bottom IN?)View On WTI Oil (18 Aug 2022)
We are seeing some possible bottoming on Oil and $80~$85 will be a strong support.
I foresee it may swing back UP.
Take it slow and $100 will be nice.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
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