OIL Long - Up & DownMajority is still long however turning slowly into bull mode. We peaked some liquidity spot on the past so I expect some movement up before further declining.
Wticrude
WTI Crude Oil 4H Long – Targeting 0.5-0.7 Fibonacci LevelsWe’re seeing a breakout on the 4-hour chart for WTI Crude Oil, presenting a potential long trade setup. The price is targeting the 0.5 to 0.7 Fibonacci retracement levels. However, we may experience a retest of the breakout level before the trade fully reverses and moves towards the targets.
Technical Analysis:
• Breakout Confirmation: The recent price action has broken through resistance, indicating a potential shift to bullish momentum.
• Fibonacci Levels: The 0.5 to 0.7 Fibonacci levels are key areas of interest, aligning with possible resistance where the price might stall or reverse.
• Retest Potential: There’s a possibility that the price could retest the breakout zone before resuming its upward movement, which is a common pattern following breakouts.
Trade Setup:
• Entry: Consider entering a long position either at the current level or on a potential retest of the breakout zone.
• Target: The primary targets are the 0.5 to 0.7 Fibonacci levels, which represent areas where we may see the price consolidate or reverse.
• Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss below the recent low to protect against a false breakout. Since this is a swing trade on a 4-hour chart, be prepared for the trade to develop over a few days, potentially extending into weeks.
Risk Management:
• Position Sizing: Adjust your position size to account for the potential duration of this swing trade, ensuring that you’re comfortable with the longer timeframe and any market fluctuations that may occur.
• Trailing Stop: If the trade moves in your favor, consider using a trailing stop to lock in profits while allowing the trade to continue running towards the target levels.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Important update WTI. H4 26.09.2024WTI Important update
Past WTI oil buys didn't manage to get fully developed and the overall correction ended near the nearest resistance at 72.00. On the downside, large volume was poured at 69.65 and eventually gave a push to the downside, thus forming a sellers zone. I believe the overall upward correction is over and will break the lower boundary with downside potential to 64.50 to the block option spread. Then we will watch the culmination below if given, but for now selling is the priority.
BLACKBULL:WTI
US OIL / WTI Bullish Money Heist Plan on Long SideHola ola My Dear,
Robbers / Money Makers & Losers,
This is our master plan to Heist US OIL / WTI based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 30m timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
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WTI OIL📊 #XTIUSD
⏱ TIME: 1w
📝The price has dropped a lot, there is an important range ahead, $63 (blue box), it seems that it can have an upward movement from this range.
⭕️risk: high
📍buyzone: 64.30 - 62.11$
📌TP1: 72 $
📌TP2: 77 $
⛔️: If this range is lost, the analysis will fail and I will update the analysis
Bears wade into crude oil futures: CL1!An influx of short bets against WTI crude oil futures is behind the recent leg lower for oil prices. But having already fallen nearly 14% over eight days, bears may want to tread carefully with a fresh catalyst. Matt Simpson takes a look at the weekly, daily and 4-hour chart alongside large speculative positioning.
WTI Poised for a Rally? Key Support Hold Could Send Prices SkywaThe chart indicates that WTI is approaching a critical support zone between $67.60 and $69.40, a level previously tested and held.
After forming a consolidation pattern, the price is likely to break upward, heading toward the next resistance at $72.50 and potentially extending to $76.00 if momentum builds.
A bullish move would be supported by the price remaining above the $69.40 area, indicating strong demand at these levels.
However, if this support breaks, there could be a further downward move towards $67.60.
The target zones to watch on the upside are $72.50 and $76.00, with significant resistance around those levels.
WTI - LONG SHORTThought I'd publish my first idea to the community. All things being equal , this will be my game plan for the rest of 2024.
Retest ~ 70.5 - 70.65 (Rejection)
Long Entry ~ 67.2 - 66.85 S/L 66.65
TP1 ~ 77.2 - 77.85 ( with rejection candle)
Long Entry ~ 70.6 - 70.5 ( on rejection)
TP2 ~ 79.2 - 79.5
Short Entry ~ 79.5 - 80.4 ( if rejected, S/L 81.5)
Let it ride till Major Target ( 57.7 - 57.3) is reached or End of year
Comes first.
As I said folks first idea, so no putting the kids inheritance on it😆.
Feed back and critique welcome.
Thanks folks✌️
WTI Crude Oil Ready for a BounceThe chart shows a break of a rising trendline with price pulling back to retest the $69.40 support level.
Given the rejection at this level, there's a potential for a bullish reversal targeting the next liquidity area around $72.50.
Traders should watch for confirmation of a higher low before entering long positions to ride the breakout.
XTIUSD Out look Wti crude oil is has move in bearish direction and has broken its support also going to retest its broke below resistance level also 50 SMA is showing us on 1H a bearish trend and that bearish move is likely to continue
WTI Rises Above $84.50 Amid Summer Demand ExpectationsWith the peak of the summer travel season, marked by the Independence Day holiday this week, US oil demand is expected to surge. The American Automobile Association (AAA) projects travel during this period to be 5.2% higher than in 2023, with car travel alone increasing by 4.8% compared to the previous year, according to Reuters.
Crude oil markets are further supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Israel-Palestinian Hamas conflict continues to create volatility in energy markets. Investors are concerned that a potential cross-border spillover could involve direct action from Iran, a Hamas supporter, threatening crude oil supplies and logistical stability in the region.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported the steepest week-on-week decline in US Weekly Crude Oil Stocks in nearly two years. API data showed a significant weekly decrease of -9.163 million barrels, far exceeding the forecasted -150K drawdown and following the previous week’s -3 million barrel decline.
Given our forecast, we are currently considering a short position in the supply area. Typically, crude oil production for summer demand occurs in the preceding months, leading to higher oil prices before the summer season. Our seasonality analysis indicates that crude oil prices generally decline in trading from the end of July through September.
Therefore, we are now looking for a short position.
✅ Please share your thoughts about WTI in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
USOIL : Weekly Technical AnalysisHi Traders!
Crude oil prices declined on Tuesday due to demand concerns driven by weak economic growth in China, the world's biggest crude importer.
Brent crude fell 1% to US$76.77 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude lost 0.1% to US$73.50/b at last look early Tuesday. Demand concerns offset impacts of the production and export halt at Libya due to a political dispute, Reuters said in a Tuesday report.
China's purchasing managers' index hit a six-month low in August and new home prices grew in the month at their weakest pace this year.
Meanwhile, Libya's National Oil Corp declared force majeure at its El Feel oil field from Sept. 2. Total production in the country had dropped to just over 591,000 barrels per day (b/d) as of Aug. 28 from nearly 959,000 b/d on Aug. 26, Reuters reported, citing NOC.
However, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is reportedly set to proceed with its planned output boost in October regardless of demand concerns, Reuters reported, citing unnamed industry sources.
From a technical point of view, the break of the support (left wing) should confirm our bearish harmonic structure and subsequently push the price around $55. If OPEC confirms an increase in production, this element could support our idea. What do you think?
WTI LongSeeing that WTI has held steady at the 4h FVG I decided to open a long up to the point of interest where the intermediate high is at 15min.
Risk: 1%.
Trade management: I will take partial profit (60%) at the first swing high.
CL!Bottoming Out needs to break Resistance Area. As per current Cycle Crude Oil will try to vreak resistance soon
Waiting for WTI rebound. H4 30.08.2024 Waiting for WTI rebound
Oil WTI has been flattening with pullbacks all week, which is exhausting. My top-up was knocked out together with the rest of the last buy. Although the total plus came out due to partial fixation. Now the price is back to the key support area, it went down to the buyers' zone 73.34-72.63 and near the specified 1/2 margin. There are no large volumes, which is confusing, but they can make a buyback. Therefore, you should look here for confirmations on your strategy. If pushed the zones below, then the price will go to 71.
Managing Oil Price Uncertainty with Micro WTI StraddlesYou cannot predict the future, but you can prepare for it. This is even more true for crude oil prices. Forces driving and pulling back oil prices are in full play in parallel at the same time. Oil prices remain at the risk to both the upside and the downside concurrently.
Take this week as an example. WTI prices started with a rally extending a three-day uptrend of >7% following Fed’s hint at rate cuts plus heightened tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. The rally reversed as tensions eased. Crude oil prices crashed 3.8% over Tuesday & Wednesday on fears of feeble demand.
RATE CUTS AND GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS DRIVE OIL PRICES HIGHER
The US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signalled that the time to pivot was about now when speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week on 23/Aug. This boosted optimism for oil prices, fuelling a rally reversing a price slump caused by weak Chinese economic data and disappointing US payroll revisions.
Chair Powell’s remarks lifted market sentiment, leading to gains in oil prices and the dollar weakening. A feeble dollar makes oil cheaper for non US consumers and can help increase demand pushing up oil prices.
Source: CME FedWatch Tool
According to CME’s FedWatch tool , there is a 67.5% likelihood of a 25 basis points (“bps”) rate cut and a 32.5% chance of a 50 bps rate reduction at the September FOMC meeting.
Sadly, the tensions in the Middle East continue to prevail. Last weekend, Hezbollah launched rockets and drones into Israel, prompting a swift response from Israel's military, which deployed around 100 jets to prevent a larger attack.
Adding to these factors are disruptions in oil production in Libya and Colombia.
The easing of tensions between Hezbollah and Israel reduced supply fears, with some speculating that Iran might view Hezbollah's missile attacks as sufficient retaliation.
Despite easing tensions, supply concerns persist in Libya threatening to reduce oil production by 1.2m bpd.
WEAKENING DEMAND AND OVER PRODUCTION COULD PULL OIL PRICES BACK
Concerns over weak oil demand from China, a global economic slowdown on the horizon, and elevated Russian crude production is keeping oil prices under check.
Russia has exceeded its OPEC+ production targets since March, leading to excess supply that is undermining the impact of OPEC+ production cuts and keeping prices low.
Source: OPEC and IEA
On Wednesday, the EIA reported a decline of 846,000 barrels in US crude inventories for the week ending 23/Aug, falling short of analyst expectations of a 2.7 million barrel drawdown. The market response to this smaller-than-expected inventory decrease was muted.
Demand for crude and gasoline will soften as US summer driving season ends first week of September.
Expectations of weaker US gasoline demand and lower refining margins have led several refiners to scale down their operations reducing demand for crude.
The largest US refiner, Marathon Petroleum ( NYSE:MPC ), announced that it will reduce its refining capacity to 90% this quarter, the lowest for a Q3 since 2020. PBF Energy ( NYSE:PBF ) will lower its capacity utilization to a three-year low, and Phillips 66 ( NYSE:PSX ) will cut its capacity to a two-year low.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reduced their 2025 Brent crude forecast to USD 77/barrel and USD 75/barrel respectively. Reasons cited for reducing forecasts include weaker Chinese demand, higher inventories, oversupply from OPEC countries, and rising US shale production for the downward revision.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Over the past two weeks, crude oil prices have been volatile for reasons mentioned above. Looking ahead, rate cuts in September, the ongoing crisis in Libya, and reduced US gasoline demand will fuel further uncertainty to oil prices in the near term.
This is evident from rising WTI crude oil implied volatility. Earlier on 05/Aug it slid from its YTD high of 44.7 but has started to pick up again.
Source: CME CVOL
Establishing a directional position amid such uncertain backdrop is rife with risks. Long straddles using Micro WTI Crude Oil Options offer an effective way to capitalize on rising volatility.
Straddles are designed to benefit from (a) significant price movements in the underlying asset regardless of the price move and (b) volatility spikes. Sharp oil price moves, and volatility spike are to be expected given the current context.
Straddles provides “unlimited” profit potential combined with limited downside risk. A straddle comprises of two trade legs, namely, a long ATM call option combined with a long ATM put option.
This paper posits a long straddle on CME Micro WTI options expiring on 17th September. Micro WTI options provide exposure to 100 barrels of WTI crude offering a smaller contract size and lower premium requirements.
Based on 30/August market prices, this hypothetical trade set-up uses CME Micro WTI Crude Oil options expiring on 17th September and involves (a) Buying a 76 ATM Call, and (b) Buying a 76 ATM Put.
The premiums for each leg and the corresponding option Greeks as shown QuikStrike Strategy Simulator are shown below for ease of reference.
The straddle requires USD 1.91 per barrel in premium for the long call and USD 1.8 per barrel for the long put. In aggregate the straddle would cost USD 3.71 a barrel. Each CME Micro WTI Crude Oil option comprises 100 barrels which translates to a premium of USD 371 per lot.
When Micro WTI Crude Oil futures trade past break-even points as shown in the chart, this straddle will deliver positive returns.
• Lower break-even point: 76 - 3.71 = 72.29
• Upper break-even point: 76 + 3.71 = 79.71
However, at expiry, if Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures prices settle between USD 72.29 and USD 79.71 a barrel, this straddle will incur a maximum loss of USD 3.71/barrel or USD 371/lot.
The straddle pay-off are summarized in the table below to augment the above chart, illustrating the potential P/L of this trade at a few settlement prices.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
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Possible correction WTI. H4 27.08.2024Possible correction WTI
Oil has now approached the marginal resistance zone 77.41-77.97,
as shown in the previous analysis.
Large point volumes have appeared in the zone and may mean
fixation of purchases and the beginning of accumulation
of corrective sales.
The question is whether the pullback will be
and how deep it will be.
In general, I expect an approach around 1/2 of the margin
and then up again from there. That's why yesterday at 77.40
I closed 50% of buys and I'm still in the waiting mode.
Oil after filling volumes likes to make
gains and then go into a reversal.
USOUSD (WTI Crude) strong bullish move likely … week of 26 AugA ‘hammer candle’ is one of my favorites and we can see a nice one in the weekly chart of oil. It also appears at a major support (73.00) and at a rising trend line. If you are not a fan of the hammer candle like I am, just look left on my chart and see what happened in the past when this candle appeared.
But “when” to trade is always a question, directional bias is only a part of our decision making. I will, first of all be looking for USD weakness and CAD strength (correlation). Monitoring PA on the H4 and H1 is always a good idea too. Evidence of bullish PA would justify taking a long trade. However, if a move to the downside forms, that would negate my analysis.
This is not a trade recommendation. You should be aware that trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose. Please use sound money and risk management, trading without a stop or moving the stop away from price is a recipe for disaster.
If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more.
Please comment and share your thoughts too!!
It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
USOIL 73.02 - 1.01 % WEEKLY MULTI TF ANALYSISHELLO TRADERS
Hope everyone is doing great
📌 A look at USOIL from HTF - MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS
USOIL DAILY TF
* Last week saw a bearish close with the weekly FVG holding & beautifully rejecting.
* The sentiment is still strongly bearish for OIL from HIGHER TF perspective.
* The weekly & daily TF show we are still trading in a range on a bearish trend towards that ERL.
USOIL DAILY TF
* The picture is clearer with strong bearish moves from the daily.
* some volume imbalance left behind.
* possibly to be filled before we take that ERL.
USOIL 4H
As we head lower we see some bullish potential for some retracement.
* With the week to opening Bearish (PO3) could see this move with tomorrows crude inventories .
* sentiment the same on the hourly tf.
* This rally with the bulls & strong momentum to the down side could see some reversal.
looking for some signs of this on todays price action.
* LETS SEE HOW THE MARKET DISHES
🤷♂️😉🐻🐮
HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK.
SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS.
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE
SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
* Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
| * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤
LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
Crude oil approaches bullish reversal zoneWeak Chinese demand and hopes for a Middle East peace deal on the downside, OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical tensions on the topside. It’s amazing how the same narratives get rolled out depending on where the WTI crude price sits within its 2024 range, often reaching their crescendo just before the price turns. I wonder whether we’re about to see the same outcome again.
WTI has fallen heavily over the past week, apparently on hopes for a peace deal in Gaza. That may be reason, and I hope it happens from a humanitarian perspective, but I’ve been around long enough to know narratives are often designed to fit with the prevailing price action. All I know is that the last two occasions WTI has dipped to $72.50 per barrel it’s coincided with a near-term bottom. Sitting at $73.11, the price is not far away again.
I would be reluctant to buy preemptively, but should the price bounce from $72.50, it would make for a decent long setup, allowing for a stop to be placed beneath the February low of $71.44 for protection. Minor levels at $74.60 and $76.94 are two potential targets, $80.30 another considering how much work the price did either side earlier in the year.
DS
Oil Prices Slip as Gaza Talks and China Worries WeighOil prices edged lower at the start of the week, as traders weighed the potential impact of ongoing Middle East tensions and softening demand from China. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dipped towards $79 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $76.
The recent decline follows a turbulent week for oil markets, marked by significant volatility. Prices had shed nearly 2% on Friday as investors grappled with concerns over China's economic recovery and the potential implications for global oil demand. The world's second-largest economy has shown signs of weakness, with data indicating a slowdown in industrial activity and consumer spending. This has raised doubts about China's ability to drive oil consumption growth.
Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip continues to cast a shadow over the energy market. While diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire have intensified, the situation remains volatile, and the potential for disruptions to oil supplies in the region cannot be ruled out. The geopolitical risk premium, which has supported oil prices in recent months, could diminish if a ceasefire is achieved.
Analysts caution that the oil market is likely to remain volatile in the near term, as traders navigate a complex interplay of factors. On one hand, the potential for supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions could underpin prices. On the other hand, weakening global economic growth and efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources could exert downward pressure.
Looking ahead, investors will be closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, as well as economic indicators from China and other major economies. Any escalation of the conflict or further signs of weakness in the Chinese economy could lead to renewed volatility in the oil market.
Ultimately, the price of oil will depend on the balance between supply and demand. While the market has experienced periods of tightness in recent months, concerns about slowing demand growth may start to weigh on prices if they materialize.
WTI OIL - 4H Bullish AgainBLACKBULL:WTI has shown signs of completing its recent correction phase, setting the stage for a potential bullish move. Technically, after a strong upward surge driven by bullish momentum, TVC:USOIL entered a two-leg correction that appears to have found support. This could suggest that the price is ready to continue its upward trajectory from the current support zone.
Fundamentally, oil prices have been supported by several factors over the past week. Ongoing supply cuts from OPEC+, especially from Saudi Arabia, have tightened the global oil market. Additionally, expectations of increased demand, fueled by economic resilience in key markets like the US and China, have contributed to upward pressure on prices. These combined factors could further bolster WTI’s next move to the upside.
USOIL 78.31 -1.59 % AHEAD OF THE CRUDE INVENTORIES HELLO TRADERS
Hope everyone is doing great
📌 A look at USOIL from MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS
🎯 CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES TOMORROW
- 7th Aug release was more than expected which meant weaker demand and was bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if tomorrow a decline in inventories is less than expected.
USOIL 4H TF
* Friday & monday where strongly bullish but tues came with change in delivery as we see strong bearish move.
* The weekly & daily TF are still range bound .
* USOIL took External range LQ & price will delive from the -FVG above.
* We are trading in premium of the move, This is where I would be looking for short entries.
* With PO3 looking to open bullish (fri & monday) to confirm a move Lower into +FVG on USOIL.
USOIL 1H TF
* Looking for the hourly to open Bullish into the 4h FVG because our HTF BIAS (PO3) .
* We will see what does the market dish.
* On the 4 hourly IRL > ERL.
- LOWER TF
* ANALYSED IN REAL TIME
HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK.
SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS.
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE
SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
* Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
| * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤
LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
