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Wticrude

Crude oil will probably find its long term top soonAfter almost two and a half years, i decided to come back to tradingview again. Right now i am working for one of the largest commodity trading houses and covering our metals trading business in Asia. In the future, i will try to share as much as my personal views at here, also you all welcome to challenge and discuss. In the last few months, we see an incredible inflation increased in Europe and USA due to the Ukraine war. The gap of export push the price of almost all kinds of commodities to the historical high, including agriculture products, energy products, metals, etc. The people in Europe and USA are suffering from this sudden increasing of living cost, which also brings a lot of pressures to their governments. For crude oil, I think those leaders will give up to the inflations and try their best to buy Russian oil and Russian gas to lower down their domestic energy price. ( I believe that they will also buy a lot of corn and wheat from Russia ) In the other hand, the Fed's rate hiking decision will keep bringing pressures to the commodity market. So due to the economic cycle and potential cooling down of global energy crisis, I think Crude oil will find its long term top soon. At the technical side, i marked two resistances and one support line. For sure, the resistance zone will attract many bears to join the fight.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Nee_sh
Brent Crude Oil - Elliott wave theoryHave we just completed Elliott wave 1 of a crude oil bull market which I would argue started in November 2021 with Pfizer vaccine news?? Others may say it started from June 2020 after the May 2020 crash low touching zero or below briefly. I have a question for viewers if Elliott waves up to 5 does indeed play out again for oil (and commodities in general) how can one have any clue how much time this will take? Please refer to March 1999 (just before dot com crash) through to June 2008 (onset of GFC) Brent crude oil price chart to see how Elliott waves 1, 3 & 5 up-moves happened with waves 2 & 4 corrections.
OLong
by CryptoJoe128
1
India tricks the West, Strong dollar & China imports russian oilOil top might be in for this year. Reasons: 1. Market adjustment mechanisms are underway on the commodity markets, ensuring that Russian oil, which is spurned by the West, once again finds its buyers (india, china). This in turn causes these countries to demand less Brent or WTI oil, which again depresses prices. India and China are buying significantly more crude oil from Russia, Europe less, which means there is a balancing out taking place on the world markets with the new tanker routes and transportation routes. 2. India recently bought more oil from Russia than ever before, according to a recent report by the Finnish Energy and Clean Air Research Center. "A significant portion of the crude is re-exported as refined oil products, including to the U.S. and Europe, an important loophole to close," the Finnish analysts warned. Since new sanctions measures are very unlikely, the alignment process between Russian oil and Brent and WTI crudes is likely to continue. 3. Dollar price, interest hikes & recession fears by FED. The strong dollar is also acting as an additional burden on the oil market. This is because commodities such as oil are traded in dollars. If you read between the lines of the FED, they're doing their best to crush commodity and oil prices to crush long-speculators on comm and oil. 4. Fear of new lockdowns in China. Chinese head of state Xi Jinping nevertheless only recently announced that he would stick to the strict zero-covid strategy. This is fueling fears of new lockdowns in China = downside risk for oil demand in China, probably a small impact, since the gov in China is trying its best to avoid a greater corona outbreak in large cities to stabilise eco. situation. 5. bitcoin/tradional markets are sometimes seen as counterparts to oil. Bitcoin, despite very bad news (CPI increased) and being a risk asset, has not moved much further down in price, showing that risky assets have more or less found their bottom while oil bulls have an empty tank. Opinion: I see the price cooling down slowly rather than continuing to climb, probably going towards 70-60$ in the next 6-10 months. ! This is not an investment advise! Do your own research! This is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell oil shares and this is NOT a recommendation to short or to long oil!
FX:UKOILShort
by Lobotto
High chances of a WTI bullish reversalAfter a major 7%+ drop yesterday WTI is starting to show signs of a possible reversal. To be a successful day trader, or any kind of trader/investor for that matter, you need to have an arsenal of patters which have worked for you in the past and have a high probability rate of success. To us this is one of those patterns, and below is the criteria: - Price at strong lows - Price action starts forming higher lows - Straight line resistance Thats all there is to it, this pattern is NOT completed yet, but it is starting to show signs of it hence why I added "high chances" in the subject of this post. I am watching it like a hawk and will be ready to execute long positions if the pattern is completed. This pattern has worked for me more times that it has not hence why I am super focused on taking advantage of it if it works up and start buying WTI, while if it fails I'll be ready to sell, but only if there is strong enough momentum. What patterns work best for you? *See the related post for higher time frame analysis
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by PrimedGroup
WTI oil - The backwardation points to the lower price of oilIn the past three months, we warned investors about the imminent trend reversal in the oil market. Accordingly, we set price targets for USOIL at 100 USD, 95 USD, and 90 USD. Yesterday, our short-term price target of 100 USD was taken out. Due to that, we would like to update our thoughts on USOIL. We continue to be bearish on the asset and expect the volatility to stay persistent throughout the third quarter of 2022. Additionally, we expect the prospect of a global recession and production hikes to impact the price negatively. Our views are also supported by bearish technical developments across daily, weekly, and monthly time frames. Because of that, we would like to update our medium-term price target of 95 USD to the short-term price target; additionally, we would also like to update our long-term price target of 90 USD to the medium-term. Illustration 1.01 WTI oil dropped approximately 25% from its 2022 high to yesterday's low, entering the bear market territory. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. The ADX hints at growing bearish momentum. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows crude oil futures for September 2022. The market backwardation hints at lower prices for oil in the future. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows another oil futures contract, but for January 2023. These contracts trade at far less, near the 87 USD price tag. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
17
WTI still in a MAJOR bull trendSince the April 2020 low WTI has been steadily shooting towards the 2008 highs and remains in a very strong bullish trend. When we have technical and fundamental analysis supporting a direction I would count that the best type of trades we could be in. Of course I am a day trader and looking at this weekly chart does little good for me, but volatility on the other hand helps me make abnormal profits and what I seek to find is volatility and which assets could it affect. Point here is that if WTI continues to hold this uptrend it will form a higher low and knowing that higher low I can positon myself to ride wider profits on long positions and even increase my size, while also when WTI eventually finds a top the correction down will be quick and aggressive, hence knowing both the technical and fundamental information of a given asset is vital to my success as a day trader! The technical analysis here is clear... we are in an uptrend because we are forming higher highs and higher lows... basic! but!! There are fundamental drivers too! The most recent move in oil futures curves reflects the divergent forces currently driving the global commodity markets. From the recent fundamental standpoint, the weak June Flash PMIs weighed especially on the longer-end of the oil curve, as rising recession risks and tightening financial conditions weaken the demand outlook. At the same time, the world continues to struggle with tight oil supply amid the war in Ukraine and very limited spare capacity and things are only getting worse! OPEC can't seem to save WTI from heading higher either, because OPEC+ announced faster planned production hikes for July and August, yet it failed to meet its target in May as production declined from the previous month so it will be very very very interesting to see what happens with their promise for July (coming up pretty soon!) Based on my experience... the OPEC+ supply for July could possibly form the higher low of this uptrend, but only time will tell! In any case, trading WTI is very lucrative for me right now as I thrive on volatility and absolutely love it!
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by PrimedGroup
Global recession - short commodities remains the default play Europe now gets the full attention – we’ve seen Germany’s trade surplus completely eroded, turning negative and into the first deficit since 1991 – clearly impacted by the reduction of Russian gas imports. Germany has been heavily reliant on Russian gas imports and the flow-on effect is we could be looking at gas rationing through the European winter and a potential bailout of Germany’s largest gas importer (Uniper). A recession in Europe looks all but certain this year, and this makes the ECB’s life incredibly challenging – they have a deteriorating growth outlook, very high and persistent inflation and worries about peripheral bond yields blowing up. EU Nat gas (NG) prices are not something they can control, and we’ve seen prices rally 100% in the past 16 days, so this is a brutal juggling act for Europe – Europe is in the eye of a storm right now, especially with China maintaining a strict line with its Covid zero policy. News that airline SAS has filed for bankruptcy won't help matters either. Europe may command the closest attention, but this is a global problem. In a world of rising interest rates and central banks hellbent on putting the inflation genie back in the bottle, we’ve seen clear evidence of demand destruction – commodities have been the default expression of this thematic and right now there is just no visibility on growth or what changes the trend – even though the market lives in the future, it feels like this gets worse before it turns around. The result is no one wants EURs, or GBPs, and commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and NOK) find few friends either – the trend really is one’s friend and everyone asks when EURUSD hits parity. So the USD reigns supreme, not just from a relative growth perspective but from an attractiveness as an investment destination. Right now, aside from the USD, only the JPY looks like a compelling long in G10 FX. What’s clear is that the USD strength is feeding back again into negative commodity price action – commodities face a war on two fronts – demand destruction and king USD and this is causing some intense bear trends in commodities, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to think the systematic trend-following crowd would already be running hefty short positions in copper, silver, gold, US gasoline and AG’s like wheat and soybeans. Until we see signs of a turn in the USD then rallies in all these markets will likely be jumped on by the short-sellers. That even includes XAUUSD, which is trading at YTD lows and sold consistently into the 8-day EMA – Until these dynamics change then it feels like gold is destined for $1750. If the USD remains bid, perhaps look at gold exposures in AUD or EUR (XAUAUD or XAUEUR) and there may be scope for a topside range breakout. However, even then, I will want to wait for a move to take place and let the market reveal itself. The elephant in the room, aside from EU NG is crude – Our SpotCrude price briefly traded below $100 and SpotBrent into 103.53, although have been supported below the figure. Headlines that one US bank is projecting that Brent crude could head to $65/bbl in a recession may have impacted, but it’s the demand side of the supply/demand equation which is being examined and we heard concerns of falling demand from Vitol Group (one of the world’s largest oil traders) on Sunday. The world could use a weaker crude price, although from a risk perspective it's better if it’s driven by additional supply and not falling demand – the issue with supply is that OPEC is struggling to meet current quotas as it is so additional supply seems a tall order. Having broken the April trend support, the rising probability is SpotCrude looks to test the March/April lows of $93.47/93.98 – selling rallies into 104.00. Commodities are the default expression of recession risk – crude and gold get the flow from clients but for those who like momentum and trend this is the space to pay attention to.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Pepperstone
1
WTI oil - The end of oil bull marketIn early April 2022, we said the oil bull market peaked. Then, a bit later, we stated that if the Russian crude oil was to be banned in the EU, we would see another bounce in price and possibly a new top. Despite that, we set a long-term price target for USOIL at 90 USD; we still hold this price target as we continue to be bearish on oil. In addition to that, we would like to set a short-term price target for USOIL at 100 USD and a medium-term price target at 95 USD. Fundamental factors The FED is decided to pursue the destruction of demand, which will negatively impact the oil price as the stock market is poised to crash further down. Additionally, supply increases by the OPEC members threaten the high value of oil. Illustration 1.01 The WTI crude oil is down over 20% from its peak and within the technical bear market. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. The ADX increases, which signals that the bearish trend is gaining momentum. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are due to perform a bearish crossover. The ADX suggests that the bull trend has ended. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
10
USOIL 6th JULY 2022USOIL fell below USD 100 as recession fears grew, fueling concerns that the economic slowdown would cut demand for petroleum products. In the macro trend, oil tends to be bearish. By the end of this year if the economy is heading into a recession. In a recession scenario with rising unemployment, bankruptcy of households and firms, commodities will chase a downward cost curve as costs deflate and margins turn negative to encourage supply curbs. However, the decline in oil prices will actually benefit manufacturing companies. They will take cheap prices for supplies, after 2 quarters of prices soaring. USOIL D1
TVC:USOIL
by DNP-FX
8