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WTI bulls step in with price holding back above $100bblsThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied a bit on Wednesday to break above the top of the candlestick from Tuesday. If you remember, the Tuesday candlestick was what I referred to as a potential “binary trade”, meaning that if we can break above it, the market could go higher. After all, the neutral candlestick suggests that we are in the midst of trying to figure out whether or not momentum will pick up. Now that we have broken decisively to the upside, the market looks very likely to continue going higher, perhaps reaching towards the $120 level. Given enough time, we could go all the way to the $130 level yet again. The market has been very bullish, but I do not want to see some type of parabolic move, because as you can see, we had recently had one of those, which of course fell apart quite drastically. There is only a certain amount of momentum that can come into a market without it falling apart, so the sustainability of the uptrend is what I am looking for. Looking at the chart, the 50-day EMA is sitting at the $96.55 level and climbing. As long as we can stay above this indicator, it does suggest that we are still in an uptrend. The size of the candlestick is rather impressive, so I think we will continue to see buyers on every short-term dip. The market has been very noisy but has also been decidedly positive. I have no scenario in which I am willing to short the oil market anytime soon, so looking at dips as potential buying opportunities will continue to be the way to approach the market. That being said, we will eventually run into “demand destruction”, but I do not think we are anywhere near that right now. Ultimately, this is a market that I think has quite a bit of upward mobility to it, especially as the war in Ukraine rages on. The lack of Russian oil on the open market is going to continue to cause issues, but inflation itself is reason enough to think that oil should continue to go higher. Regardless, this is a market that continues to offer plenty of opportunities for those willing to be patient enough to find value. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the US gave written guarantees that Western sanctions against the country will not impact future trade with Iran, CNBC reported on 18 March. After hovering lower for two weeks, Brent briefly returned to above $120/bbl on 25 March on reports that Yemen’s Houthi rebels – backed by Iran – launched fresh attacks on Saudia Arabia. The attack hit Saudi Aramco’s oil depot in Jeddah and other facilities in Riyadh. WTI also rose to above $114/bbl on the day. The man who predicted crude oil $120 in 2020 when crude was at $30 alltime low The EIA raised the trading price of Crude oil by $22 per barrel to an average of $105.22 per barrel in its March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), and the American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $101.17 per barrel. The higher price projection includes concerns about supply disruptions and additional sanctions as a result of Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine. Brent is expected to fall to $88.98 per barrel post-2022, whereas WTI will fall to $84.98 per barrel. The EIA emphasized, however, that the price projection is ‘very unpredictable’, as actual price outcomes will be determined by the severity of Russia’s sanctions, any new potential sanctions, and the impact of individual business actions. In 2020, during the COVID outbreak, the event suddenly draws Crude & Brent oil prices. The crude oil (WTI) starts falling from $65/barrel to $19/barrel. The continuous fall frightens investors all over the globe. But, Ankit, Wealth Manager (USA), who is also an entrepreneur & investor at that time publicly said on his YouTube video that crude will touch($90-$100) soon due to macroeconomic conditions which central banks created by putting interest rates at an all-time low. Ankit said in 2020, due to this petrol prices will touch Rs.100 first time in India. In 2022, he seems indeed right. Today petrol prices all over India almost hit Rs.100 due to an international price hike in Brent oil. Today also his video is still available on his YouTube platform which he created by the name of ‘Market Maestroo’. This video he released on Dec.25 2020. One can check it as a fact as well. He is one of the only Wealth Managers in the Globe who predicted a rise in Crude oil & only economist in India who predicted Rs100/litre of petrol. Apart from this, his many predictions in recent times come true which also become the centre of attraction for many investors. He also predicted inflation is coming & USA inflation may touch 10%. Today Feb 2022, USA inflation is sitting at 30 year high of 8%. After such successful predictions, Ankit, Wealth Manager (USA), now started gaining popularity & limelight. One of his famous quote in investing is “Investing is done with a calm mind, not to calm your mind WTI oil outlook: Oil hits $130 per barrel on fears that Russian energy products WTI bulls move in as US and EU move towards sanctioning Russia further. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) does little to cool down supply concerns. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose on Monday on persisting supply concerns as Russian energy sanctions are very much on the table following the Russian forces' civilian killings in north Ukraine. For a fresh high of the day, at $103.82. WTI spot is up by some 4.5% as White House's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, announced that the US is working with European allies to coordinate further sanctions on Russia. Sullivan said that they have concluded Russia has committed war crimes, Bucha offers further evidence to support that, pointing to a protracted war. '' Ukraine-Russia conflict may not be just a few more weeks, could be months.'' Ukraine’s top prosecutor has said 410 bodies had been found in towns recaptured from retreating Russian forces around Kyiv as part of an investigation into possible war crimes. The weekend media reported mass killings of civilians in the town of Bucha which had been under Russian occupation until recently. The reports led to an array of calls from within the European Union for the bloc to go further in punishing Moscow. Consequently, a fifth package of sanctions against Russia is being arranged with the new round of measures expected to be approved later this week. Meanwhile and despite the release of 180-million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and an agreement last week from members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release some of their own strategic reserves, oil is firmer due to the persistence of geopolitical concerns. "The global oil market remains in deep deficit of likely 1.5 mb/d over the last 4 weeks, before the loss of Russian supply even started, with global inventories at their lowest levels in recent history on a demand-adjusted basis and with limited OPEC and shale elasticity in months to come. Demand destruction requires higher prices, yet this dynamic is being nullified by increased government interventions in cutting gasoline taxes," Goldman Sachs said in a report. ''Indeed, while the SPR release can quell near-term tightness concerns, it does not solve the longer-term issues in the crude market. Structural deficit conditions could still persist down the road as these reserves will need to be replenished at a time when global spare capacity and inventory levels will still be stretched,'' analysts at TD Securities explained. ''In this sense, the right tail in energy markets is set to remain structurally fat as depleted reserves would add to the existing risks of self-sanctioning, stretched spare capacity across OPEC+, constrained shale production, an uncertain Iran deal and OECD inventories at their lowest since the Arab Spring. We expect this vast array of supply risks to remain the driving force in the energy market.''
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by DaveBrascoFX
BCO soon again 120 AND OIL READY FOR 150 BEFORE TACKLING 220USDOil Could Rise to $120-150 Range in Next Few Months Oil price forecast April 2022 and beyond: Will prices test $140? Oil prices eased slightly on Friday, robust US data and weekend risk supporting prices, while US SPR releases as well as yet to be determined ones from other IEA members capped gains. A UN-brokered two-month ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels has had no noticeable impact on prices today. The China holiday is definitely muting trading volumes in Asia today, leaving Brent crude unchanged at USD 104.50, and WTI unchanged at USD 99.35. With mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan all on holiday tomorrow, I expect the first part of the week in Asia to be quiet. Overall, I still expect Brent to trade in a choppy USD 100.00 to USD 120.00 range, with WTI bouncing around in a USD 95.00 to USD 115.00 a barrel range. The US SPR and monthly OPEC+ production hikes balanced out by geopolitical tensions elsewhere. Nearly five weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there is no sign of the oil market's increased volatility abating anytime soon. Dollar Unlikely to Lose Dominance Due to Sanctions -- Market Talk 1435 GMT - Claims that the dollar could lose its dominance in the global economy due to western sanctions against Russia appear exaggerated, Capital Economics says. The sanctions imposed on Russia will accelerate the development of bilateral trading blocs that use alternative currencies but this won't rival the scale and reach of the dollar, Capital Economics says. The dollar remains the world's leading reserve currency but its role as the dominant currency for settling cross-border transactions is more important from the perspective of geopolitical influence, it says. "Foreign demand for dollar assets creates the deep and liquid markets that underpin the dollar's global dominance WEAK USDOLLAR IS POWER BOOSTER FOR THE OIL PRICE as many countries use the weak USD to buy more oil beacuase they are afraid of further sanctions and paying more for expencieve oil. If you knew that 12months from now one barrel oil willcost 300USD,wouldn´t itbe a nice situation to buy oil right cheaper as it cots now? Think Big. Oil prices shot up to $100/barrel (bbl) on the day Russia invaded Ukraine (24 February 2022) and continued to rise in the first week of the conflict. On 7 March, international benchmark Brent oil futures hit nearly $140 per barrel (bbl), while US oil futures West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $130/bbl. The prices spiked after the US and its European allies sought to ban the purchase of oil from the Russian Federation amid the conflict in Ukraine. Since then, Brent and WTI have retreated due to several factors, including concerns about demand as a fresh Covid-19 flare-up forced China – the world’s largest oil importer – to impose a large-scale lockdown. However, prices have remained above $100/bbl. Will oil prices hold at their current level of above $100 for the rest of this year? Dive into the impact of the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict and other factors on the oil price projections and read the latest on oil prices 2022 from analysts. Oil steadies as IEA prepares details of reserve release Oil prices have pulled back considerably since peaking last month in the early days of the invasion. Declines over the last couple of weeks have been aided by lockdowns in China and a massive SPR release by the IEA, the details of which should become known early this week. The US has already made its contribution known which will go some way to easing the tightness in the market and supply shock from Russia, where sanctions are biting. This is only a temporary solution but offers a buffer over the next six months as producers ramp up production, including OPEC+ which has until now refused to accelerate its efforts in any significant way. Oil prices remain high but they’re certainly at more sustainable and less economically threatening levels. WTI slipped below USD 100 and could remain there depending on the full details of the IEA release and the length of Chinese lockdowns but the war in Ukraine remains a significant upside risk. Gold holding up as recession signals flash Gold is holding up fairly well in the face of multiple super-sized rate hikes being priced into the markets and risk appetite remaining fairly strong. The inflation risk is seemingly providing plenty of support which is why we’re seeing so many rate hikes being priced into the markets, along with the downside economic risks that continue to mount. One thing that has come with these super-sized hikes is recession risks, as evident by the inversions we’re now seeing on the US yield curve. The 2-10 inversion is now clear for all to see and has previously been a fairly reliable recession indicator. Of course, it doesn’t offer any kind of specific timeline and there are doubts about its reliability in an enormous Fed balance sheet world. The economic data may also provide some comfort. But gold is holding firm and is actually up marginally on the day. It appears to have consolidated just above USD 1900 over the last few weeks with brief dips below being quickly bought into. Equally, it’s not making any real headway to the upside, making it quite a choppy market at the moment that offers little in the way of directional clues. Oil rose for a third day as support grows for a European Union ban on Russian crude. Expectations of a further escalation of the war is also helping to drive prices higher. Oil products price forecast update April 2022 Crude oil prices typically fluctuate based on seasonal demand and supply. Most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic caused crude price changes through a drop in demand. While economic recovery is underway, oil prices continue to be affected by global uncertainties. Key Takeaways The EIA forecast that Brent crude oil prices will average $82.87/b in 2022. WTI is forecast to average $79.35/b in 2022, up from $68.21/b in 2021 . Oil prices are rising due to an increase in demand and a decrease in supply. OPEC is gradually increasing oil production after limiting it due to a decreased demand for oil during the pandemic. Current Oil Prices There are two grades of crude oil used as benchmarks for other oil prices: the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at Cushing and North Sea Brent. WTI at Cushing comes from the U.S. and is the benchmark for U.S. oil prices. North Sea Brent oil comes from Northwest Europe and is the benchmark for international oil prices. Internationally, Brent crude oil prices averaged nearly $75 per barrel (/b) in December 2021, down $6/b from November's average. Prices increased in January, up to $87/b, but they are expected to average $82.87/b in 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Feb. 8, 2022. West Texas Intermediate averaged $71.71 per barrel in December 2021, and rose to $79.39/b on Jan. 4, 2022.1 The EIA forecasts that WTI prices will average $79.35/b in 2022, up from $68.21 in 2021.2 Oil prices are affected by several factors that include everything from weather to economic and political instabilities. It also estimates that global oil and liquid fuels demand was 101.08 million b/d in December 2021. That's an increase of 5.52 million b/d from December 2020, but only 0.24 million b/d lower than December 2019. However, the EIA expects demand to average 100.52 million b/d in 2022.3 2021 Oil Prices Brent crude oil prices started low in 2021, averaging $54.77/b in January.4 But they rose in the second quarter, closing at $67.73/b in April 2021. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at Cushing in the United States performed similarly, closing at $63.50/b in April. The third quarter saw massive hikes in prices, with Brent prices increasing to a height of $84.52/b in early November, and WTI reaching $85.64/b in late October. By the end of 2021 Brent sold at $77.24/b, and WTI at $75.33/b.56 Oil Price Forecast 2025 to 2050 The EIA predicts that by 2025 Brent crude oil's nominal price will rise to $66/b. By 2030, world demand is seen driving Brent prices to $89/b. By 2040, prices are projected to be $132/b. By then, the cheap oil sources will have been exhausted, making it more expensive to extract oil. By 2050, oil prices could be $185/b. WTI per barrel price is expected to rise to $64 per barrel by 2025, increasing to $86 by 2030, $128 by 2040, and $178 by 2050.7 The EIA assumes that demand for petroleum flattens out as utilities rely more on natural gas and renewable energy. It also assumes the economy grows around 1.9% annually, while energy consumption decreases by 0.4% a year.8 Future oil prices will depend greatly on innovations in energy, transportation, and other industries as societies work to become less fossil fuel dependent. Always understand.the oil companies shareholders want only one thing: HIGHER OIL PRICES! HIGHER PROFIS! Reasons for Today’s Volatile Oil Prices Oil prices used to have a predictable seasonal swing. They spiked in the spring as oil traders anticipated high demand for summer vacation driving. Once demand peaked, prices dropped in the fall and winter. Oil prices are more volatile today due to many factors, but four are the most influential. 1. US Oil Supply The coronavirus pandemic and natural events are still affecting oil demand and supply. The U.S. experienced a drop in production following Hurricane Ida in September as the storm shut at least nine refineries. The EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production will average 11.8 million b/d in 2022 and 12.41 million b/d in 2023.9 2. Diminished OPEC Output Oil price increases also reflect supply limitations by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC partner countries. In 2020, OPEC cut oil production due to decreased demand during the pandemic. It gradually increased oil output through 2021 and into 2022. Supply chain disruptions in late 2021 affected global trade as well. At its most recent meeting in December 2021, OPEC stated it would continue to gradually adjust oil production upward by 0.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in January 2022.10 3. Natural Gas Countries in Asia have relied on coal to generate power, but recent shortages have turned them to natural gas. Higher temperatures in parts of Asia and Europe have led to high demand for natural gas to generate power. COVID-19 has hampered Europe's natural gas production, and a colder-than-expected heating season in early 2021 reduced supplies further. As a result, natural gas prices soared in 2021 and are expected to remain high in 2022, and affected countries have turned to gas-to-oil switching to reduce power generation costs.2 4. Global Inventory Draw As a reduction in oil production continues globally, countries are forced to draw from their stored reserves (not including the strategic petroleum reserves). This steady draw of oil is contributing to the increase in prices, because inventories are decreasing. How Biden’s Huge Strategic Oil Release Could Backfire President Biden’s huge SPR release announcement has pushed WTI prices back below $100. SPR release may calm crude prices only in the short term. U.S. SPR may need to be replenished at higher oil prices. This week, the Biden administration revealed that it will release as much as 180 million barrels of crude oil in a bid to calm oil prices, which have remained above $100 per barrel for an extended period of time. The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, is coordinating a smaller but international reserve release of some 60 million barrels and has called an emergency meeting to discuss how exactly to go about it. It remains unclear whether part of the 180 SPR release in the United States will be a completely separate endeavor or if some of these barrels will be part of the IEA release. Earlier this year, the U.S. had agreed to release 30 million barrels as part of the IEA push. What is clear is that the success of these releases in calming down oil prices is quite unlikely. The United States last year announced the release of 50 million barrels in an effort to bring down prices t the pump, which were eroding Americans’ purchasing power and weighing on the President’s approval ratings. This pressured prices for a few days before they rebounded, driven by continued discipline among U.S. producers, equal discipline in OPEC+, and a relentless increase in demand for the commodity. Then Russia invaded Ukraine, and the U.S. banned imports of Russian crude and fuels. It also sanctioned the country’s financial system heavily, making paying for Russian crude and fuels too much of a headache for the dollar-based international industry. Prices soared again before retreating some, but remain firmly in three-digit territory. Related: Why We Cannot Just “Unplug” Our Current Energy System As of mid-March, the Department of Energy said, some 30 million barrels of crude from the strategic petroleum reserve had been sold or leased. That’s more than half of the 50 million barrels announced in November, and it appears to have had zero effect on price movements. But the new reserve release is a lot bigger, so it should make a difference, shouldn’t it? It amounts to some 1 million bpd over several months, per reports about White House plans in this respect. Unfortunately, but importantly, oil’s fundamentals have not changed much since November. U.S. shale oil producers, the companies that a few years ago prompted talk among analysts that OPEC was becoming increasingly irrelevant, have rearranged their priorities. They no longer strive for growth at all costs. Now they strive for happy shareholders. This has given more opportunities to smaller independent drillers with no shareholders to keep happy. Yet these have also run into challenges, mainly in the form of insufficient funding because the energy transition has had banks worrying about their reputations and their own shareholders. Pandemic-related supply disruptions have also affected the U.S. oil industry’s ability to expand output. Frac sand, cement, and equipment are among the things that have been reported to be in short supply in the shale patch. Now, there’s a shortage of steel tubing, too. Meanwhile, OPEC is doing business as usual, sticking to its commitment to add some 400,000 bpd to oil markets every month until its combined output recovers to pre-pandemic levels. Just this week, the cartel approved another monthly addition of 432,000 bpd to its combined output despite increasingly desperate calls from the U.S. and the IEA for more barrels. OPEC has been demonstrating increasingly bluntly that its interests and the interests of some of its biggest clients may not be in alignment right now. It has refused to openly condemn Russia for its actions in Ukraine and has not joined the Western sanction push. Related: U.S. Oil Demand Has Been Vastly Overestimated On the contrary, OPEC is gladly doing business with Russia. And Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two OPEC members that actually have the capacity to boost production beyond their quotas, have deemed it unwise to undermine their partnership with Russia by acquiescing to the West’s request for more oil. In this environment, releasing whatever number of barrels from strategic reserves could only provide a very short relief at the pump. Then, it may make matters even worse. As one oil market commentator on Twitter said about the SPR release news, the White House will be selling these barrels at $100 and then may have to buy them at $150. Indeed, one thing that tends to get overlooked during turbulent times is that the strategic petroleum reserve of any country needs to be replenished. It’s not called strategic for laughs. And a 180-million-barrel reserve release will be quite a draw on the U.S. SPR, which currently stands at over 580 million barrels. If oil’s fundamentals remain the same, prices will not be lower when the time to replenish the SPR comes. This seems the most likely development. The EU, the UK, and the United States have stated sanctions against Russia will not be lifted even if Moscow strikes a peace deal with the Ukraine government. This means Russian oil will continue to be hard to come by for those dealing in dollars or euros. According to the IEA, the shortfall could be 3 million barrels daily, to be felt this quarter. OPEC+ is not straying from its course. In some good news, at least, U.S. oil production rose last week for the first time in more than two months, by a modest 100,000 bpd.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by DaveBrascoFX
USOIL 102.35 -4.03 % SHORT IDEA * CONT. PTTNS & PRICE ACTION 💡HELLO EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE. LOOKING AT THE USOIL * The ENERGY is currently trading in an DOWN-trend , just consolidated, tested the roof of this structure . - Short term the ENERGY is currently at the supply zone could go lower so looking for possible continuation with the bears. - Looking for SHORT entries on the THE CRUDE this week should all the rules of the formation be met. ******* CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES YESTERDAY saw an increase in the oil is actually less than expected @ 3.449 M which implies LOWER demand and the energy could react BEARISH . SHOULD WE BREAK BELOW HERE'S A POSSIBLE SCENARIO SCALLED DOWN TO AN HOURLY TF So lets see how it goes IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - SWING TRADE
TVC:USOILShort
by PULEMokhothu
WTI OIL UPTREND TO 110WTI OIL UPTREND TO 110 Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor nor am I telling you what to do with your capital. I am simply stating my thoughts on the financial markets. Take what I say with caution and do your own research. The financial markets are risky and should be treated as such. You are 100% responsible for all of your actions within these markets, I am not at fault for any losses or wins you may acquire. I never tell anyone what to do in these markets, I am simply making my opinions public. Results are not typical so anything can happen in these markets, so proceed with caution.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by gusfikcom
XTIUSD new Analysis updatesXTIUSD trade will go according to new predicted pathway. Trade will be in the range between 61% fib level and -161% fib level after breaking of this wide range we will be able to get massive profit entries. Stay tune. We publish precise and compact information after careful consideration which give you quick glimpse for comparative analysis. Our aim is to deliver simple and compact information which can be used by beginner to give them brief understanding of trades without any complexity. if you have any question or want to ask about analysis of other pairs or you have any confusion about analysis then feel free to ask us. Don't forget to support by share your ideas and hit like and subscribe button. You can support us through coins donation for more frequent signals.
XLong
by AussieLeader
💡USOIL 109.50 -2.79 % LONG IDEA * CONT. PTTNS & PRICE ACTIONHELLO EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE. LOOKING AT THE USOIL * The ENERGY is currently trading in an uptrend , just consolidated, broke out and retested the structure . - Short term the ENERGY is currently at the supply zone could go lower but looking for possible continuation with the bulls. - Looking for LONG entries on the THE CRUDE this week should all the rules of the formation be met. ******* CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES TOMMOROW, there is a decrease in the oil is actually less than expected @ 4.345 M which implies HIGHER demand and the energy could react BULLISH . SHOULD WE BREAK BELOW HERE'S A POSSIBLE SCENARIO SCALLED DOWN TO AN HOURLY TF So lets see how it goes IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - SWING TRADE
TVC:USOILLong
by PULEMokhothu
🛢️ CRUDE OIL - 17% Higher Since our PERFECT Post 🦉💙 Our previous Oil post was perfectly on support. It is now over 17% higher since our entry. Even more impressively, you may go back to our post on March 3rd: also here: and here: Pure perfection..FXPROFESSOR style OIL PRICES: War in Ukraine is the biggest issue here. Inflation equally the other big issue. Then again you know a lot about these 2 factors but there is a third one: Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales Talks between Riyadh and Beijing have accelerated as the Saudi unhappiness grows with Washington. Unfortunately we must keep our eyes open on all these and pray for the best. Situation is not a good one. Keep safe people. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR
TVC:USOILLong
by FX_Professor
What will it take for OPEC+ to increase its oil output?The worsening oil supply shortage in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has sent pump prices to record highs in recent weeks, sparking fears of a catastrophic global oil crisis and soaring inflation. Despite these concerns, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other non-OPEC oil-exporting nations, a global oil cartel known as OPEC+, are still holding back on boosting production, downplaying the impact of the conflict on global oil supply and demand and stressing that the current market volatility is triggered only by geopolitical developments. Why are oil prices high? Economic sanctions imposed against Russia have caused oil importers overseas to turn down Russian oil as "no one wants to be seen buying Russian products and funding a war against the Ukrainian people,” a New York Harbor trader was quoted by Reuters as saying earlier this month. Even when not many countries use Russian oil, pump prices have surged in recent weeks as the absence of millions of barrels of Russian oil from the global supply chain prompted importers of Russian crude like Europe to seek the commodity elsewhere such as from OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia. These leaves other traders scrambling to secure supply. How OPEC plays into the issue OPEC members — including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela — account for about 40% of the world’s crude oil production and 60% of petroleum traded globally, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In 2020, as demand for oil plummeted when most countries were under lockdown, OPEC+ agreed to a deal with former US President Donald Trump to slash nearly 10 million barrels of oil per day, or close to 10% of the global oil output. The world’s top exporters eventually started beefing up production by 400,000 barrels a day since August 2021 as economies reopened. Most recently, with the Russia-Ukraine war threatening a global oil supply crunch, the focus has again turned to OPEC+ to ramp up output. However, the group in its recent meeting on March 2 — about a week since Russia started invading Ukraine — reaffirmed its commitment to only increase its crude oil output by 400,000 bpd. “It was noted that current oil market fundamentals and the consensus on its outlook pointed to a well-balanced market, and that current volatility is not caused by changes in market fundamentals but by current geopolitical developments,” OPEC+ said in a statement. UAE pushes for increased output Yousuf Al Otaiba, the UAE's ambassador to Washington, last week said the country “favor production increases and will be encouraging OPEC to consider higher production levels.” The statement caused oil prices to fall at most in two years on Thursday, with Brent crude futures falling 13.2% at $111.14 a barrel, the biggest one-day drop since April 21, 2020. Prices have continued to fall on Monday, with Brent prices falling to $107.59 a barrel for May contracts and WTI crude slipping to $103.42 for April contracts. Oil prices have also retreated on expectations that some producers may accelerate production. Will OPEC+ boost output? In late January, prior to the Ukraine conflict, the EIA had predicted a nearly 2.7 million bpd increase in OPEC’s oil output this year, the largest year-over-year jump in production since 2004. Energy research firm Rystad Energy most recently estimated that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait can bring about 4 million bpd of spare capacity into the market within three to six months, potentially easing the crisis. However, that amount still falls short of Russia’s 7 million bpd in oil exports, according to Reuters. In an interview with Bloomberg News last week, OPEC’s outgoing general secretary Mohammad Barkindo said there is "no physical shortage of oil” amid the Ukraine crisis, adding that the physical market supplies are guaranteed. Barkindo’s statement underscores the OPEC+’s likelihood of only beefing up production once signs of a supply crunch become more imminent. One factor that could prompt the cartel to yield to calls to accelerate output is the potential for a demand destruction. Oil demand may soon peak and decline when retail fuel prices become relatively expensive and as the prices of other consumer goods skyrocket. The transition to renewable energy sources and the shift to new-energy vehicles may also cause oil demand to weaken, especially as Western countries and other economic giants like China accelerate their climate action targets. The potential end to the Russia-Ukraine dispute could likewise stabilize oil prices and encourage OPEC+ to boost output as global supply chains and activities resume, although the likelihood of this happening in the near term is relatively slim as Western countries have refused to directly intervene over fears of wide-ranging “consequences” from Vladimir Putin.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
2
WTI Crude oil set to gain moreThere is a potential push towards 144, Following Russia sanctions. Russia is the third largest exporter of oil according to Investopedia analysis posted on March 8, 2022. This will create scarcity of the product in the market hence more demand which will result in higher prices in the near future.. RSI indicator shows an overbought figure at 71.94 according to Monthly Timeframe but it ain't stopping anytime soon. sellers at 144, that's where it will most likely take a breather if it moves past current resistance at 128(March Monthly high). This is not a financial advice do your own due diligence. All the best
TVC:USOILLong
by alonso780
1