WTIin the pic u see that our downtrend was broken with good impulsive move out
after that i stay like snake to hunt it
the price come to my zone
now if i see good confirmation i will long wti
Wticrude
OIL (WTI) - 4H Three PushThe WTI Oil 4H chart displays a classic bullish reversal pattern, often referred to as the "three pushes" or "three drives" pattern. This pattern is characterized by three distinct attempts by the market to push lower, each attempt being met with increasing buying interest. The current setup shows that after three downward pushes, the price has started to rebound, indicating a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
The price action has recently broken above the upper boundary of the descending wedge, which suggests a weakening bearish trend and the possibility of a new bullish phase. The target for this bullish movement could be around the $84 level, where previous resistance lies. Traders should watch for continued higher highs and higher lows to confirm the upward trajectory, and consider long positions as the price action aligns with this bullish reversal signal.
Follow up on NatGas and oil tradeBoth trades did as expected. with Oil doing a stop hunt before going up. Both Poasitions are now in Profit. Will Leave them open for a while until we shit our TP levels above 90 for oil.
Crude Oil: Long Position Amidst Support and SeasonalityWe are considering a long position on crude oil, given that the price has reached a significant support area. This support level is reinforced by a divergence observed on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting a potential reversal in the current trend. Additionally, seasonality data supports the likelihood of a bullish movement during this period.
The convergence of these technical indicators and historical trends strengthens our conviction for a long setup. The RSI divergence indicates that the recent downward momentum may be waning, while the support area provides a strong foundation for a potential price rebound. Furthermore, seasonality data, which highlights recurring patterns in price behavior during specific times of the year, suggests that crude oil prices are poised for an upward movement.
In light of these factors, we are looking to establish a long position on crude oil, capitalizing on the technical setup and historical data that align to suggest a favorable entry point for a bullish trade.
CRUDE OIL (CLN2024, USOIL, WTI)... BEARISH!Bias is Bullish.
Daily TF shows 2 weeks of
consolidation supported by a Daily
+FVG. Friday finally saw a "BO" as price
traded through the swing high with
a close above it. Note that price is
now inside the a Daily -FVG.
Potential for a bearish reaction? Yes.
However, I believe it will be short term
if anything.
The 4H gives more detail.
One can see bullish structure in
place that will support a move higher,
potentially to to test 80.21.
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oil (WTI)The right range of purchases with a risk to the right reward!
Stabilization stop below 76,800
OIL (WTI) - 4H Sell SetupIn the past hours, OIL (WTI) experienced a sharp rise driven by news of Iran's president's death, which significantly impacted market sentiment.
This surge allowed OIL to break above the bearish channel and catch the liquidity over the resistance zone, as illustrated on the chart.
However, despite this upward spike, the price action suggests that OIL may continue its downward trajectory within the descending channel.
Traders should monitor this closely as the price looks set to resume its fall, adhering to the prevailing bearish trend.
The liquidity hunting above the resistance zone indicates potential for further declines as the market reverts to its established downward path.
USOIL enjoys relief but has an uneasy path ahead of itWest Texas Intermediate crude oil trades near $79.80 per barrel, which happens to be slightly below the 20-day SMA and the lower bound of the ascending channel. A breakout above the moving average will bolster a bullish case for oil in the short term, especially if the price closes above the 20-day SMA for multiple consecutive days; the same applies to a breakout above the channel’s lower bound. Once the 20-day SMA is broken, $80.44 and $82.25 are important resistance levels to watch out for. However, a rejection at the moving average and channel’s bound will be somewhat concerning, potentially foreshadowing further stagnation around the current price or return of weakness.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays simple support and resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs.
Illustration 1.02
The daily MACD of USOIL is shown above. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line. However, it is important to emphasize that MACD is still within the bearish area below the midpoint.
Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Monthly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOIL Short-Term Outlook: Why We're BearishWe're looking at the USOIL market and our analysis shows signs of a short-term downtrend. Here's why:
COT Reports: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) reports reveal that the behavior of participants labeled as "Commercials" is most characteristic of a bear market.
CFD Market Positioning: Oil traders in the CFD market are shifting their positions, with most now long. This could trigger a wave of stop-losses, further pushing prices down.
Options Analysis: Real options portfolios on the CME exchange suggest that strategies like Bear Put Spreads are gaining popularity. These portfolios are targeting a price of around $70 per barrel.
Taking these factors into account, we believe the short-term outlook for USOIL is bearish.
What do you think of the market? Share your thoughts in the comments!
USOil Trade IdeaUSOil (WTI) is under pressure, it has retraced into my optimal entry zone on the 4H. Looking to sell at the currrent level with a 2R target. SL above the previuos high. Not financial advice.
WTI Pump loading WTI is following my main ideas and it showing us a good bullish pattern that I really like. We can see a strong divergence on multiple timeframe, a break above main trendline, and it's giving us enough time to accumulate longs at a strong support zone. My first target is the same as previous ideas
Crude Oil: Potential Bullish ShiftOn 4h timeframe, WTI Crude Oil is printing a falling wedge pattern followed by Bearish Divergence on RSI. Potential Reversal Zone is predicted using the AB=CD pattern.
TRADE PLAN
Buy on breakout on previous Lower High.
Stop Loss on previous Lower Low
TP1, TP2 with RRR of 1:1 and 1:2 respectively
Crude Oil | BULLS MAY DOMINATE THE NEXT DAYSMay is not always a good month for crude oil. When you look at the last 40 years, there is a positive change rate of less than 50%.
However, Crude oil is moving to the support resistance point, and its performance in the last 8 election years, from the beginning of the may to the 21-22 of May during the election years, is 7 years positive and an average return of 12%.
That's why I'm very BULLISH on Crude oil, which is below last year's opening level and at a significant support-resistance flip point.
WTI Running wellThe previous setup i shared about WTI is confirmed and actally is running pretty well. I expect a continuation to the upside till the resistance area at $81.5 before a possible retrace. On lower timeframe we can see a bullish divergence and a break above bearish trendline. Expecting higher
WTI On supportWTI is sitting on major support area. On smaller timeframe we can see a lower low here, and if it's going to bounce it should be from there. I expect a reversal pattern today with a continuation of the upside moves next week. Main target from the long $83
Israel strikes Iran againIsrael retaliated against Iran overnight, which saw the price of WTI crude oil jump nearly 4.5% before giving up some of its gains. Per media reports, three large explosions were heard in the country's south, and the U.S. official announced Israel successfully hit some of the targets, something Iran was quick to deny. Without regard for damages, it is already apparent the two adversaries entered a spiral of reciprocatory aggression. Unless there is any form of effective mediation between the two sides (which is, by the way, unlikely), the conflict could enter a stage of regional war, with Israel potentially fighting on multiple fronts. Needless to say, this has enormous implications for the region, which is responsible for a significant portion of the global oil supply and, thus, influences oil prices (at this point, the only counterweights for the rising price of oil could be OPEC’s willingness to bring production online, protraction of global economic slowdown, and potentially more releases of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves by the USA).
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish (stalling/turning neutral)
Weekly time frame = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CRUDE OIL Bullish Side Robbery Plan to make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
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OIL - WTI 4H BullishWTI Oil has indeed finished its second leg and retracted back to a significant order block zone.
This is often a signal for potential accumulation before another ascent.
Based on current patterns, it's poised to climb back up towards the previous decline pivot, setting up an interesting play for those watching the oil markets.
USOIL BUYING MORE TILL HIT 123$ HELLO FRIENDS
As I can see USOIL has Break the triangle zone and now trading above 80$ as we said in our previous analysis, we are more bullish on Gold with Technical and Fundamentals views as we all know the War is still going on and US Gov supporting all his allies with billions of $ and there is no Ceasefire in near term. Iran is now entered in this War Plan which is not good for Commodities and Energy sectors.. Investors always look for safe haven in these term and conditions inflation to 2% is now seems a hard Goal. OIL Supply and Demand can creat volotility in markets as we can see Asian regions higher Demand
Friends if we see technically view on USOIL we can see oil breakout on Triangle Zone on Daily Chart and looking for more bullish moves. Time Depends
Friends its just an trade idea share Ur thoughts with us it helps many other traders.
Stay tuned
XTIUSD (US OIL/ WTI) : 1800+ Pips Opportunity| Setupsfx_ |Dear Traders,
Hope you are doing great, US OIL still has high chances of touching the 90.00 region and beyond. Price made correction after rejecting at 87.00, price dropped to 80.00 from where we think price is likely to continue the bullish momentum. However, it is crucial to keep next week news in mind as well.
Good Luck
Options Blueprint Series: Credit Spreads for Weekly PlaysIntroduction
Credit spreads are a sophisticated options strategy involving the simultaneous purchase and sale of options of the same class and expiration, but at different strike prices. This approach is particularly effective in scenarios where the trader seeks to capitalize on premium decay while maintaining controlled risk exposure. Commonly used in volatile markets, credit spreads can offer a strategic advantage by allowing traders to position themselves in accordance with their market outlook and risk tolerance.
Understanding Credit Spreads
Selling one option and buying another with the same expiration date but different strike prices is done to earn the premium (credit) received from selling the higher-priced option, offset by the cost of buying the lower-priced option. There are two main types of credit spreads: Call Spreads and Put Spreads, specifically Bull Put Spreads and Bear Call Spreads.
Bull Put Spreads: This strategy involves selling a put option with a higher strike price (receiving a premium) and buying a put option with a lower strike price (paying a premium), both on the same underlying asset and expiration. The trader anticipates that the asset's price will stay above the higher strike price at expiration, allowing them to keep the premium collected. This spread is termed "bull" because it profits from a bullish or upward-moving market.
Bear Call Spreads: Conversely, this strategy involves selling a call option with a lower strike price (receiving a premium) and buying a call option with a higher strike price (paying a premium). The expectation here is that the asset's price will remain below the lower strike price at expiration. This spread is called "bear" because it benefits from a bearish or downward-moving market.
Easy Way to Remember:
Bull Put Spread: Remember it as "selling insurance" on a stock you wouldn't mind owning. You're betting the stock price stays "bullish" or at least doesn't drop significantly.
Bear Call Spread: Think of it as "calling the top" on a stock. You're predicting that the stock won't go any higher, demonstrating a "bearish" outlook.
Risk Profile
The below graph illustrates the risk profile of a Bull Put Spread (Bullish Credit Spread that uses Puts):
WTI Crude Oil Options Contract Specifications
WTI Crude Oil options offer traders the opportunity to manage price risks in the highly volatile crude oil market. Key contract specifications include:
Point Value: Each contract represents 1,000 barrels of crude oil, with each point of movement equivalent to $1,000.
Trading Hours: Options trading is available from Sunday to Friday, providing extensive access to market participants around the globe.
Margin Requirements: Initial margins are set by the exchange and are adjusted according to market volatility. USD 6,281 at the time of this publication (based on the CME Group website).
Credit Spread Margin Calculation: For credit spreads, margins are typically lower as the margin for a credit spread in WTIC Crude Oil options is calculated based on the risk of the position, which is the difference between the strike prices minus the net credit received. This calculation ensures that the trader has sufficient funds to cover the potential maximum loss. (for example: a spread using the 78.5 and the 77.5 strikes which are 1 point away would require USD 1,000 minus the credit received).
Understanding these specifications is crucial for traders looking to employ credit spreads effectively, ensuring compliance with financial requirements and alignment with trading strategies.
Application to WTIC Crude Oil Options
Credit spreads are particularly suited to the Weekly Expiration WTIC Crude Oil Options due to their ability to capitalize on the oil market's frequent price fluctuations. The strategy's effectiveness is enhanced by the oil market's characteristics:
Market Dynamics: Crude oil prices are influenced by a myriad of factors including geopolitical events, supply-demand dynamics, and changes in global economic indicators. These factors can lead to significant price movements, creating opportunities for options traders.
Strategy Suitability: Given the volatile nature of crude oil, credit spreads allow traders to take a directional stance (bullish or bearish) while limiting risk to the difference between the strike prices minus the credit received. This is particularly advantageous in a market where sudden price swings can occur, as it provides a safety buffer in case WTI Crude Oil moves against the trader and then comes to back towards the desired direction.
By employing credit spreads, traders can leverage such market characteristics to potentially enhance returns while maintaining a clear risk management framework.
Forward-looking Trade Idea
For above TradingView price chart presents a trade setup as we consider the current market conditions and employ a put credit spread strategy, focusing on two UFO (UnFilled Orders) Support Price Levels that indicate potential support below the current market price of WTIC Crude Oil Futures. These levels suggest that prices are unlikely to drop below these thresholds anytime soon.
Trade Setup: Utilize the 78.5 and 77.5 put strike prices for the credit spread.
Sell a put option at the 78.5 strike price, where we expect the market will not fall below and collect 0.13 points (USD 130).
Buy a put option at the 77.5 strike price to limit downside risk and define the trade’s maximum loss and pay 0.07 points (USD 70).
Premium Collected: The credit received from this spread is the difference in premiums between the sold and bought puts, which contributes to the overall profitability if the options expire worthless. The net credit collected is USD 60 (130-70).
Expected Outcome: The best scenario is for WTIC Crude Oil prices to stay above the 78.5 strike at expiration, allowing the trader to retain the full premium collected while minimizing risk.
As seen on the above screenshot, we are using the CME Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts.
This trade is predicated on the belief that the underlying crude oil price will remain stable or increase, ensuring that the prices do not fall to the strike price of the sold put, thereby maximizing the potential for profit from the premiums.
Risk Management
Effective risk management is crucial when employing credit spreads in trading. Given the defined risk nature of credit spreads, several strategies can be implemented:
Position Sizing: Adjust the number of spreads to fit within the overall risk tolerance of the trading portfolio, ensuring that potential losses do not exceed pre-determined thresholds.
Stop-Loss Orders: Although credit spreads have a built-in maximum loss, setting stop-loss orders based on market price can help lock in profits or prevent excessive losses in volatile market conditions.
Monitoring: Regular monitoring of market conditions and adjusting positions as necessary can help manage risks associated with unexpected market movements.
Conclusion
Credit spreads offer a strategic advantage for options traders looking to leverage market movements while controlling risk. By focusing on premium collection and employing a disciplined approach to risk management, traders can enhance their chances of success in the volatile WTIC Crude Oil options market.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
WTI looks set to bounce above $80Oil prices have retraced just under 8% from the MTD (month-to-date) high. And it looks like the market is trying to stabilise around a support cluster, just above the $80 handle. The cluster includes the 50-day MA, high-volume node and prior consolidation zone.
A small doji also firmed around these levels to suggest a swing high has formed, or very near.
A bounce to $84 could be on the cards as part of a technical retracement against its prior move lower. Bulls could enter live around current levels with a stop beneath $80, or seek dips towards it in anticipation of an eventual move higher to increase the potential reward to risk ratio.
Why I Expect 200 Dollar USOIL Wti CrudeUsing momentum indicators (keltner channel) I've been watching this weekly rally and recent correction. Using the close, and the last wave, oil price could climb to astronomical levels in USD. There is a momentum shift of the correction, and the bull market for oil appears to be underway. At this pace, 200 by june is not far fetched. I expect the Dollar to lose significant strength, and costly measures enforced as an abysmal attempt to stifle inflation. Soon interest payments will become the largest expense if it hasn't already. There is much reason to worry about world markets right about now.
Larger Pattern Breakout
and here is the shift up close on the weekly:
This is not financial advice.
