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WTI Rises Above $84.50 Amid Summer Demand ExpectationsWith the peak of the summer travel season, marked by the Independence Day holiday this week, US oil demand is expected to surge. The American Automobile Association (AAA) projects travel during this period to be 5.2% higher than in 2023, with car travel alone increasing by 4.8% compared to the previous year, according to Reuters. Crude oil markets are further supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Israel-Palestinian Hamas conflict continues to create volatility in energy markets. Investors are concerned that a potential cross-border spillover could involve direct action from Iran, a Hamas supporter, threatening crude oil supplies and logistical stability in the region. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported the steepest week-on-week decline in US Weekly Crude Oil Stocks in nearly two years. API data showed a significant weekly decrease of -9.163 million barrels, far exceeding the forecasted -150K drawdown and following the previous week’s -3 million barrel decline. Given our forecast, we are currently considering a short position in the supply area. Typically, crude oil production for summer demand occurs in the preceding months, leading to higher oil prices before the summer season. Our seasonality analysis indicates that crude oil prices generally decline in trading from the end of July through September. Therefore, we are now looking for a short position. ✅ Please share your thoughts about WTI in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by FOREXN1
1
USOIL : Weekly Technical AnalysisHi Traders! Crude oil prices declined on Tuesday due to demand concerns driven by weak economic growth in China, the world's biggest crude importer. Brent crude fell 1% to US$76.77 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude lost 0.1% to US$73.50/b at last look early Tuesday. Demand concerns offset impacts of the production and export halt at Libya due to a political dispute, Reuters said in a Tuesday report. China's purchasing managers' index hit a six-month low in August and new home prices grew in the month at their weakest pace this year. Meanwhile, Libya's National Oil Corp declared force majeure at its El Feel oil field from Sept. 2. Total production in the country had dropped to just over 591,000 barrels per day (b/d) as of Aug. 28 from nearly 959,000 b/d on Aug. 26, Reuters reported, citing NOC. However, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is reportedly set to proceed with its planned output boost in October regardless of demand concerns, Reuters reported, citing unnamed industry sources. From a technical point of view, the break of the support (left wing) should confirm our bearish harmonic structure and subsequently push the price around $55. If OPEC confirms an increase in production, this element could support our idea. What do you think?
FX:USOILShort
by TheAnonymousBanker
7
Waiting for WTI rebound. H4 30.08.2024 Waiting for WTI rebound Oil WTI has been flattening with pullbacks all week, which is exhausting. My top-up was knocked out together with the rest of the last buy. Although the total plus came out due to partial fixation. Now the price is back to the key support area, it went down to the buyers' zone 73.34-72.63 and near the specified 1/2 margin. There are no large volumes, which is confusing, but they can make a buyback. Therefore, you should look here for confirmations on your strategy. If pushed the zones below, then the price will go to 71.
THINKMARKETS:WTILong
by KovachTrader
Managing Oil Price Uncertainty with Micro WTI StraddlesYou cannot predict the future, but you can prepare for it. This is even more true for crude oil prices. Forces driving and pulling back oil prices are in full play in parallel at the same time. Oil prices remain at the risk to both the upside and the downside concurrently. Take this week as an example. WTI prices started with a rally extending a three-day uptrend of >7% following Fed’s hint at rate cuts plus heightened tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. The rally reversed as tensions eased. Crude oil prices crashed 3.8% over Tuesday & Wednesday on fears of feeble demand. RATE CUTS AND GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS DRIVE OIL PRICES HIGHER The US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signalled that the time to pivot was about now when speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week on 23/Aug. This boosted optimism for oil prices, fuelling a rally reversing a price slump caused by weak Chinese economic data and disappointing US payroll revisions. Chair Powell’s remarks lifted market sentiment, leading to gains in oil prices and the dollar weakening. A feeble dollar makes oil cheaper for non US consumers and can help increase demand pushing up oil prices. Source: CME FedWatch Tool According to CME’s FedWatch tool , there is a 67.5% likelihood of a 25 basis points (“bps”) rate cut and a 32.5% chance of a 50 bps rate reduction at the September FOMC meeting. Sadly, the tensions in the Middle East continue to prevail. Last weekend, Hezbollah launched rockets and drones into Israel, prompting a swift response from Israel's military, which deployed around 100 jets to prevent a larger attack. Adding to these factors are disruptions in oil production in Libya and Colombia. The easing of tensions between Hezbollah and Israel reduced supply fears, with some speculating that Iran might view Hezbollah's missile attacks as sufficient retaliation. Despite easing tensions, supply concerns persist in Libya threatening to reduce oil production by 1.2m bpd. WEAKENING DEMAND AND OVER PRODUCTION COULD PULL OIL PRICES BACK Concerns over weak oil demand from China, a global economic slowdown on the horizon, and elevated Russian crude production is keeping oil prices under check. Russia has exceeded its OPEC+ production targets since March, leading to excess supply that is undermining the impact of OPEC+ production cuts and keeping prices low. Source: OPEC and IEA On Wednesday, the EIA reported a decline of 846,000 barrels in US crude inventories for the week ending 23/Aug, falling short of analyst expectations of a 2.7 million barrel drawdown. The market response to this smaller-than-expected inventory decrease was muted. Demand for crude and gasoline will soften as US summer driving season ends first week of September. Expectations of weaker US gasoline demand and lower refining margins have led several refiners to scale down their operations reducing demand for crude. The largest US refiner, Marathon Petroleum ( NYSE:MPC ), announced that it will reduce its refining capacity to 90% this quarter, the lowest for a Q3 since 2020. PBF Energy ( NYSE:PBF ) will lower its capacity utilization to a three-year low, and Phillips 66 ( NYSE:PSX ) will cut its capacity to a two-year low. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reduced their 2025 Brent crude forecast to USD 77/barrel and USD 75/barrel respectively. Reasons cited for reducing forecasts include weaker Chinese demand, higher inventories, oversupply from OPEC countries, and rising US shale production for the downward revision. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Over the past two weeks, crude oil prices have been volatile for reasons mentioned above. Looking ahead, rate cuts in September, the ongoing crisis in Libya, and reduced US gasoline demand will fuel further uncertainty to oil prices in the near term. This is evident from rising WTI crude oil implied volatility. Earlier on 05/Aug it slid from its YTD high of 44.7 but has started to pick up again. Source: CME CVOL Establishing a directional position amid such uncertain backdrop is rife with risks. Long straddles using Micro WTI Crude Oil Options offer an effective way to capitalize on rising volatility. Straddles are designed to benefit from (a) significant price movements in the underlying asset regardless of the price move and (b) volatility spikes. Sharp oil price moves, and volatility spike are to be expected given the current context. Straddles provides “unlimited” profit potential combined with limited downside risk. A straddle comprises of two trade legs, namely, a long ATM call option combined with a long ATM put option. This paper posits a long straddle on CME Micro WTI options expiring on 17th September. Micro WTI options provide exposure to 100 barrels of WTI crude offering a smaller contract size and lower premium requirements. Based on 30/August market prices, this hypothetical trade set-up uses CME Micro WTI Crude Oil options expiring on 17th September and involves (a) Buying a 76 ATM Call, and (b) Buying a 76 ATM Put. The premiums for each leg and the corresponding option Greeks as shown QuikStrike Strategy Simulator are shown below for ease of reference. The straddle requires USD 1.91 per barrel in premium for the long call and USD 1.8 per barrel for the long put. In aggregate the straddle would cost USD 3.71 a barrel. Each CME Micro WTI Crude Oil option comprises 100 barrels which translates to a premium of USD 371 per lot. When Micro WTI Crude Oil futures trade past break-even points as shown in the chart, this straddle will deliver positive returns. • Lower break-even point: 76 - 3.71 = 72.29 • Upper break-even point: 76 + 3.71 = 79.71 However, at expiry, if Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures prices settle between USD 72.29 and USD 79.71 a barrel, this straddle will incur a maximum loss of USD 3.71/barrel or USD 371/lot. The straddle pay-off are summarized in the table below to augment the above chart, illustrating the potential P/L of this trade at a few settlement prices. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by mintdotfinance
Possible correction WTI. H4 27.08.2024Possible correction WTI Oil has now approached the marginal resistance zone 77.41-77.97, as shown in the previous analysis. Large point volumes have appeared in the zone and may mean fixation of purchases and the beginning of accumulation of corrective sales. The question is whether the pullback will be and how deep it will be. In general, I expect an approach around 1/2 of the margin and then up again from there. That's why yesterday at 77.40 I closed 50% of buys and I'm still in the waiting mode. Oil after filling volumes likes to make gains and then go into a reversal.
THINKMARKETS:WTILong
by KovachTrader
USOUSD (WTI Crude) strong bullish move likely … week of 26 AugA ‘hammer candle’ is one of my favorites and we can see a nice one in the weekly chart of oil. It also appears at a major support (73.00) and at a rising trend line. If you are not a fan of the hammer candle like I am, just look left on my chart and see what happened in the past when this candle appeared. But “when” to trade is always a question, directional bias is only a part of our decision making. I will, first of all be looking for USD weakness and CAD strength (correlation). Monitoring PA on the H4 and H1 is always a good idea too. Evidence of bullish PA would justify taking a long trade. However, if a move to the downside forms, that would negate my analysis. This is not a trade recommendation. You should be aware that trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose. Please use sound money and risk management, trading without a stop or moving the stop away from price is a recipe for disaster. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!! It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by Trading_Vista
USOIL 73.02 - 1.01 % WEEKLY MULTI TF ANALYSISHELLO TRADERS Hope everyone is doing great 📌 A look at USOIL from HTF - MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS USOIL DAILY TF * Last week saw a bearish close with the weekly FVG holding & beautifully rejecting. * The sentiment is still strongly bearish for OIL from HIGHER TF perspective. * The weekly & daily TF show we are still trading in a range on a bearish trend towards that ERL. USOIL DAILY TF * The picture is clearer with strong bearish moves from the daily. * some volume imbalance left behind. * possibly to be filled before we take that ERL. USOIL 4H As we head lower we see some bullish potential for some retracement. * With the week to opening Bearish (PO3) could see this move with tomorrows crude inventories . * sentiment the same on the hourly tf. * This rally with the bulls & strong momentum to the down side could see some reversal. looking for some signs of this on todays price action. * LETS SEE HOW THE MARKET DISHES 🤷‍♂️😉🐻🐮 HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK. SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
TVC:USOILLong
by PULEMokhothu
4
Crude oil approaches bullish reversal zoneWeak Chinese demand and hopes for a Middle East peace deal on the downside, OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical tensions on the topside. It’s amazing how the same narratives get rolled out depending on where the WTI crude price sits within its 2024 range, often reaching their crescendo just before the price turns. I wonder whether we’re about to see the same outcome again. WTI has fallen heavily over the past week, apparently on hopes for a peace deal in Gaza. That may be reason, and I hope it happens from a humanitarian perspective, but I’ve been around long enough to know narratives are often designed to fit with the prevailing price action. All I know is that the last two occasions WTI has dipped to $72.50 per barrel it’s coincided with a near-term bottom. Sitting at $73.11, the price is not far away again. I would be reluctant to buy preemptively, but should the price bounce from $72.50, it would make for a decent long setup, allowing for a stop to be placed beneath the February low of $71.44 for protection. Minor levels at $74.60 and $76.94 are two potential targets, $80.30 another considering how much work the price did either side earlier in the year. DS
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FOREXcom
Oil Prices Slip as Gaza Talks and China Worries WeighOil prices edged lower at the start of the week, as traders weighed the potential impact of ongoing Middle East tensions and softening demand from China. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dipped towards $79 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $76. The recent decline follows a turbulent week for oil markets, marked by significant volatility. Prices had shed nearly 2% on Friday as investors grappled with concerns over China's economic recovery and the potential implications for global oil demand. The world's second-largest economy has shown signs of weakness, with data indicating a slowdown in industrial activity and consumer spending. This has raised doubts about China's ability to drive oil consumption growth. Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip continues to cast a shadow over the energy market. While diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire have intensified, the situation remains volatile, and the potential for disruptions to oil supplies in the region cannot be ruled out. The geopolitical risk premium, which has supported oil prices in recent months, could diminish if a ceasefire is achieved. Analysts caution that the oil market is likely to remain volatile in the near term, as traders navigate a complex interplay of factors. On one hand, the potential for supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions could underpin prices. On the other hand, weakening global economic growth and efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources could exert downward pressure. Looking ahead, investors will be closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, as well as economic indicators from China and other major economies. Any escalation of the conflict or further signs of weakness in the Chinese economy could lead to renewed volatility in the oil market. Ultimately, the price of oil will depend on the balance between supply and demand. While the market has experienced periods of tightness in recent months, concerns about slowing demand growth may start to weigh on prices if they materialize.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by bryandowningqln
WTI OIL - 4H Bullish AgainBLACKBULL:WTI has shown signs of completing its recent correction phase, setting the stage for a potential bullish move. Technically, after a strong upward surge driven by bullish momentum, TVC:USOIL entered a two-leg correction that appears to have found support. This could suggest that the price is ready to continue its upward trajectory from the current support zone. Fundamentally, oil prices have been supported by several factors over the past week. Ongoing supply cuts from OPEC+, especially from Saudi Arabia, have tightened the global oil market. Additionally, expectations of increased demand, fueled by economic resilience in key markets like the US and China, have contributed to upward pressure on prices. These combined factors could further bolster WTI’s next move to the upside.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Sober_Trading
USOIL 78.31 -1.59 % AHEAD OF THE CRUDE INVENTORIES HELLO TRADERS Hope everyone is doing great 📌 A look at USOIL from MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS 🎯 CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES TOMORROW - 7th Aug release was more than expected which meant weaker demand and was bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if tomorrow a decline in inventories is less than expected. USOIL 4H TF * Friday & monday where strongly bullish but tues came with change in delivery as we see strong bearish move. * The weekly & daily TF are still range bound . * USOIL took External range LQ & price will delive from the -FVG above. * We are trading in premium of the move, This is where I would be looking for short entries. * With PO3 looking to open bullish (fri & monday) to confirm a move Lower into +FVG on USOIL. USOIL 1H TF * Looking for the hourly to open Bullish into the 4h FVG because our HTF BIAS (PO3) . * We will see what does the market dish. * On the 4 hourly IRL > ERL. - LOWER TF * ANALYSED IN REAL TIME HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK. SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
TVC:USOILShort
by PULEMokhothu
4
USOIL 77.00 +1.28% SHORT SENTIMENT MTF ANALYSISHELLO TRADERS Hope everyone is doing great 📌 A look at USOIL from HTF - MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS USOIL DAILY TF * Wednesday saw strong bullish momentum coming into play, with Thur & Fri cont. this move. * The weekly & daily TF show we are still trading in a range on the USOIL. * USOIL took External range LQ, looking for that internal range LQ to be taken. * We are trading in discount of the move,This is where I would be looking for long entries. * With PO3 looking to open bullish this week to confirm a move Lower into +FVG on USOIL. USOIL 4H TF * Looking for the week to open Bullish into the 4h FVG because our HTF BIAS (PO3) . * WEEK open I will probably be looking for short positions OPPORTUNITIES. * We will see what does the market dish. * On the 4 hourly ERL > IRL. USOIL 1H TF * We saw a rally with the bulls, strong momentum to the upside. * The is a 1H FVG, this is where i would look for short entries this week. * Should this PD ARRAY hold will be short for the USOIL * BASED on the price action served this week. HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK. SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
TVC:USOILShort
by PULEMokhothu
4
Texas Oil to continue in the downward move at market price?WTI - 24h expiry Our short term bias remains negative. Our bespoke support of 77.06 has been clearly broken. Previous support at 77.50 now becomes resistance. We look for a temporary move higher. We look for losses to be extended today. We look to Sell at 77.50 (stop at 78.30) Our profit targets will be 75.50 and 75.15 Resistance: 77.13 / 77.50 / 78.00 Support: 76.60 / 75.80 / 75.4 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by OANDA
Crude oil: Waiting for a rebound to continue shortingCrude oil technical analysis Daily resistance 78.4, support below 72.7 Four-hour resistance 77.5, support below 75.5-74.7 Crude oil operation suggestions: WTI prices stopped falling due to a decline in weekly crude oil inventories last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil inventory change report is expected to show that inventories will increase by 700,000 barrels in the week ending July 19. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will address the U.S. Congress, seeking to turn the U.S. attention to the Middle East. From the daily chart level, crude oil has repeatedly fluctuated and stepped down in the medium term, and the oil price has fallen below the support of the moving average system. The objective trend of the medium-term rise has changed and returned to the oscillating pattern. Crude oil is expected to maintain a wide range of oscillation in the medium term. From the current market situation, the lower target continues to focus on breaking new lows, and the short-term long and short strength watershed focuses on the 77.5 line. The rebound above 77-77.5 remains short. Any rebound before the daily level breaks through and stabilizes this position is a short-selling opportunity. SELL:77.0near SL:77.30 SELL:77.5near SL:77.80 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by ActuaryJ
1
WTI Oil - 4HWTI oil completed its second bullish leg and has now formed a reversal setup. The price action shows that WTI missed the ascending channel support and is currently consolidating below the previous support zone, which has now turned into a resistance level. This suggests a potential bearish outlook as the price struggles to regain upward momentum. With the recent break of the ascending channel, it is expected that WTI may continue its downward trajectory. The consolidation under the new resistance zone indicates seller strength, and further declines could be seen if the price fails to break back above this resistance. Traders should watch for key support levels around $81 and $78 for potential buy signals or continuation of the bearish trend.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Sober_Trading
Market Analysis: Crude Oil Price Correct Recent GainsMarket Analysis: Crude Oil Price Correct Recent Gains Crude oil prices are also moving lower from the $82.20 resistance zone. Important Takeaways for Oil Prices Analysis Today - Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $81.30 support zone. - A major contracting triangle is forming with resistance near $80.70 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen. Oil Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $82.20 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $81.30. The bears even pushed the price below $80.70 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The price even declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $79.25 swing low to the $82.18 high. The price tested the $80.40 support zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $79.25 swing low to the $82.18 high. Immediate support is near the $80.40 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near $79.95. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $79.25. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $78.00 support zone. On the upside, immediate resistance is near a major contracting triangle at $80.70 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next resistance is near the $81.30 level. The main resistance is near a trend line at $82.20. A clear move above the $82.20 zone could send the price toward $82.50. The next key resistance is near $83.20. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $84.50. Any more gains might send the price toward the $85.00 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
2
Unpacking the Looming Oil Price Surge: A Multifaceted AnalysisGlobal oil markets are brewing with the potential for a significant price surge. This intricate scenario is fueled by a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and market dynamics. This analysis dives deep into these factors, equipping you to navigate the complexities of the oil market and make informed decisions. Geopolitical Tinderbox in the Middle East: The Middle East, a lynchpin of global oil production, has a long history of political instability. Conflicts in this region, especially those involving major oil producers, can wreak havoc on supply chains. When oil production or transportation is disrupted, scarcity drives prices upwards. Recent tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, for example, have raised concerns about a potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for oil transport. Such an event could throw global oil supplies and prices into disarray. The US Dollar: A Double-Edged Sword: During periods of global turmoil, investors often flock to safe-haven assets like the US dollar (USD). Since oil is priced in USD, a stronger dollar might dampen the potential rise in oil prices. This is because a rising dollar makes oil more expensive for countries purchasing with other currencies, potentially leading to a decline in demand. However, the safe-haven demand for USD also introduces broader complexities to global financial markets. Increased investor risk reassessment can lead to market volatility, impacting oil prices as market sentiment reacts to geopolitical developments. China's Economic Engine: A Potential Dampener: China, the world's largest oil consumer, plays a critical role in global oil demand. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy can have significant repercussions. Recent indicators suggest a deceleration in China's economic growth, potentially leading to reduced oil consumption. This economic slowdown acts as a cautionary sign for bullish traders, as it could counteract the upward pressure on prices from supply disruptions and safe-haven demand for USD. China's economic challenges are multifaceted. The country is grappling with the aftermath of strict COVID-19 measures that disrupted both domestic consumption and international trade. Additionally, the real estate sector, a significant driver of Chinese economic growth, is facing a severe downturn, further dampening economic prospects. These factors collectively suggest that China's demand for oil may not grow as robustly as it has in the past, potentially providing a stabilizing effect on global oil prices despite other upward pressures. Market Dynamics and Speculation: The Amplification Factor: Beyond geopolitical and economic considerations, market dynamics and speculative trading play a crucial role in shaping oil prices. Hedge funds and institutional investors engage in speculative activities that can amplify price movements. In times of perceived scarcity or anticipated disruptions, speculative activities can drive prices higher as traders seek to capitalize on potential supply shortages. Furthermore, the oil futures market, where contracts for future delivery of oil are traded, can also influence current prices. If traders anticipate higher future prices due to geopolitical risks or economic factors, they may bid up prices in the present, leading to immediate price increases.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by signalmastermind