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Market Analysis: Crude Oil Price Correct Recent GainsMarket Analysis: Crude Oil Price Correct Recent Gains Crude oil prices are also moving lower from the $82.20 resistance zone. Important Takeaways for Oil Prices Analysis Today - Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $81.30 support zone. - A major contracting triangle is forming with resistance near $80.70 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen. Oil Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $82.20 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $81.30. The bears even pushed the price below $80.70 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The price even declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $79.25 swing low to the $82.18 high. The price tested the $80.40 support zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $79.25 swing low to the $82.18 high. Immediate support is near the $80.40 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near $79.95. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $79.25. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $78.00 support zone. On the upside, immediate resistance is near a major contracting triangle at $80.70 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next resistance is near the $81.30 level. The main resistance is near a trend line at $82.20. A clear move above the $82.20 zone could send the price toward $82.50. The next key resistance is near $83.20. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $84.50. Any more gains might send the price toward the $85.00 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
2
Unpacking the Looming Oil Price Surge: A Multifaceted AnalysisGlobal oil markets are brewing with the potential for a significant price surge. This intricate scenario is fueled by a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and market dynamics. This analysis dives deep into these factors, equipping you to navigate the complexities of the oil market and make informed decisions. Geopolitical Tinderbox in the Middle East: The Middle East, a lynchpin of global oil production, has a long history of political instability. Conflicts in this region, especially those involving major oil producers, can wreak havoc on supply chains. When oil production or transportation is disrupted, scarcity drives prices upwards. Recent tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, for example, have raised concerns about a potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for oil transport. Such an event could throw global oil supplies and prices into disarray. The US Dollar: A Double-Edged Sword: During periods of global turmoil, investors often flock to safe-haven assets like the US dollar (USD). Since oil is priced in USD, a stronger dollar might dampen the potential rise in oil prices. This is because a rising dollar makes oil more expensive for countries purchasing with other currencies, potentially leading to a decline in demand. However, the safe-haven demand for USD also introduces broader complexities to global financial markets. Increased investor risk reassessment can lead to market volatility, impacting oil prices as market sentiment reacts to geopolitical developments. China's Economic Engine: A Potential Dampener: China, the world's largest oil consumer, plays a critical role in global oil demand. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy can have significant repercussions. Recent indicators suggest a deceleration in China's economic growth, potentially leading to reduced oil consumption. This economic slowdown acts as a cautionary sign for bullish traders, as it could counteract the upward pressure on prices from supply disruptions and safe-haven demand for USD. China's economic challenges are multifaceted. The country is grappling with the aftermath of strict COVID-19 measures that disrupted both domestic consumption and international trade. Additionally, the real estate sector, a significant driver of Chinese economic growth, is facing a severe downturn, further dampening economic prospects. These factors collectively suggest that China's demand for oil may not grow as robustly as it has in the past, potentially providing a stabilizing effect on global oil prices despite other upward pressures. Market Dynamics and Speculation: The Amplification Factor: Beyond geopolitical and economic considerations, market dynamics and speculative trading play a crucial role in shaping oil prices. Hedge funds and institutional investors engage in speculative activities that can amplify price movements. In times of perceived scarcity or anticipated disruptions, speculative activities can drive prices higher as traders seek to capitalize on potential supply shortages. Furthermore, the oil futures market, where contracts for future delivery of oil are traded, can also influence current prices. If traders anticipate higher future prices due to geopolitical risks or economic factors, they may bid up prices in the present, leading to immediate price increases.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by signalmastermind
July 15 WTI crude oil trading strategy July 15 WTI crude oil trading strategy I give several safe trading areas: Sell: 83.5-83.7 (I sold at this price last week and made a big profit. I will continue to try to sell here this week) 84.2-84.55 (suitable for selling, sl84.8) Buy: 81.5-81.6 (scalping profit) 81.-81.2 (sl 80.68) 79.95-81.2 (can hold and get more than 80-160pips profit) Trading according to these indicators can make you a safe profit. If you use my signal to make a profit. Please join me and give me a thumbs up
TVC:USOILLong
by MaudEvans
WTI - 1H Bullish SignsBased on the previous 15-minute analysis and the current 1-hour chart, WTI Crude Oil is showing strong support around the $83.00 zone. This area has acted as a significant support level, and the price has bounced off it, indicating a potential buy opportunity. On the 15-minute chart, the price had a brief consolidation phase within the support zone before showing signs of upward momentum. This aligns with the 1-hour chart, where the price is currently attempting to rise from the same support area. The consistency in this support zone across different timeframes strengthens the bullish outlook. Currently, WTI Crude Oil is poised to continue its upward movement from the support level, targeting higher resistance levels. Traders should look for confirmation of this bullish trend with potential higher highs and higher lows forming on the 1-hour chart. If the price maintains its support above $83.00, it could provide a favorable risk-reward ratio for long positions, aiming for the next resistance levels around $84.00 and beyond. In summary, the support zone around $83.00 has held well, and the current bullish momentum suggests a buying opportunity in WTI Crude Oil, with an eye on higher resistance levels in the near term.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Sober_Trading
Oil Prices Climb on Inventory DrawdownOil prices edged higher on July 3rd, 2024, buoyed by signs of a significant decline in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. Brent crude, the benchmark for international oil prices, for September settlement rose 0.1% to $86.34 a barrel by 10:21 AM in London. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. oil benchmark for August delivery, inched up to $82.88 a barrel. This price increase comes amidst a wider risk-on sentiment in the global financial markets. Equity markets, including the S&P 500, have been reaching record highs, and this optimism appears to be spilling over into the oil market. Inventory Drawdown: A Cause for Optimism The primary driver behind the oil price increase is a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicating a substantial drawdown in U.S. crude oil inventories. According to sources familiar with the data, crude inventories fell by a significant 9.2 million barrels last week. If confirmed by the official figures released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) later this week, this would mark the largest single-week decline in stockpiles since January 2024. A decline in stockpiles indicates a tightening of supply, which can lead to higher prices. This is because crude oil is a fungible commodity, meaning a barrel of oil from one source is generally equivalent to a barrel from another. So, if stockpiles decline in the United States, it can impact global supply and drive prices up. Geopolitical Tensions and Summer Driving Season Lend Support Apart from the inventory drawdown, several other factors are contributing to the current oil price rally. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated around the world, particularly in the Middle East. The ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah, along with potential upcoming elections in France and the UK, are keeping investors on edge. Disruptions to oil supplies from these regions could significantly impact prices. Summer is typically a season of increased demand for gasoline due to vacation travel. While the API report also indicated a decline in gasoline stockpiles, concerns linger about weak U.S. gasoline demand, which could temper the current price uptick. Looking Ahead: Factors to Consider The oil market remains susceptible to several factors that could influence prices in the coming weeks and months. Here are some key elements to keep an eye on: • Confirmation of API Inventory Data: Official confirmation from the EIA regarding the inventory drawdown will be crucial. If the data is validated, it will solidify the current bullish sentiment in the market. • Global Economic Growth: The health of the global economy, particularly major oil-consuming countries like China, will significantly impact demand. A strong global economic recovery will likely lead to higher oil demand and consequently, higher prices. • The Upcoming Hurricane Season: The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st, 2024. If major hurricanes disrupt oil production facilities or shipping routes in the Gulf of Mexico, it could lead to price spikes. • Geopolitical Developments: Any escalation of geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East could lead to supply disruptions and price increases. Overall, the recent oil price increase is a result of a confluence of factors, including a potential decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, a risk-on sentiment in the financial markets, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. While some headwinds exist, such as concerns about weak U.S. gasoline demand, the near-term outlook for oil prices appears cautiously optimistic. In conclusion, the oil market is currently in a state of flux. While several factors currently support higher prices, the path forward remains uncertain. Close monitoring of inventory data, global economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and the Atlantic hurricane season will be crucial for understanding how oil prices will behave in the coming months.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
WTI Crude Oil - 4H Still BullishWTI Crude Oil shows promising bullish momentum as it consolidates above a key static support zone, indicating potential for further gains. The price action demonstrates two major bullish legs, with the current position in the middle of the second major leg, suggesting continued upward movement. Additionally, the presence of a second minor leg forming suggests that the bullish momentum might lead to a breakout, propelling prices to higher targets. Traders should monitor the minor leg’s completion and potential further advances in the price of oil, taking advantage of the bullish trend.
TVC:USOILLong
by Sober_Trading
WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) 1-hour chart - SELLThe market is currently in an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Recent price action suggests a potential reversal or pullback from the resistance zone. Resistance Zone: The shaded grey area around 82.127 - 82.220 is a significant resistance zone where the price has shown rejection. Support Levels: Immediate support is around 80.473 - 80.417, marked by the red lines. A stronger support level is at 77.000, a psychological round number that aligns with previous lows. Above the resistance zone at 82.220, there may be buy-side liquidity where buy stops from short positions could be placed. Below the support level at 80.417, there may be sell-side liquidity where sell stops from long positions could be resting. The overall analysis suggests a bearish bias for USOIL (WTI), expecting a potential reversal or pullback from the resistance zone around 82.127 - 82.220.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by TopGBanks
WTI support continues to attract buyers.WTI - 24h expiry Bespoke support is located at 80.70. Offers ample risk/reward to buy at the market. Our short term bias remains positive. 50 4hour EMA is at 80.73. 80.59 has been pivotal. We look to Buy at 80.75 (stop at 79.95) Our profit targets will be 82.75 and 83.25 Resistance: 81.50 / 82.24 / 83.00 Support: 80.50 / 79.50 / 79.00 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by OANDA
WTI Crude Oil: Geopolitical Tensions and Technical SignalThe US crude oil benchmark, is trading near $82.00 on Monday. This modest uptick is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of increased oil demand during the summer season. Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact The prospect of a broader conflict in the Middle East, which could threaten crude oil supplies from the region, is fueling the rise in WTI prices. The UN Secretary-General’s statement on Sunday, warning that a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would be disastrous, has further intensified these concerns. Technical Analysis: Signs of a Possible Retracement Technically, there are signs that WTI might experience a price retracement. The current levels suggest a potential pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement within a bearish channel, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating overbought conditions. This setup hints at a possible near-term correction before any further upward movement. Outlook In conclusion, while geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand are bolstering WTI crude oil prices, technical indicators suggest a potential retracement. Market participants should remain vigilant, watching for price movements around the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the behavior of the RSI in the coming sessions.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
A slick move in crude - black gold has the wind to its backThe oil market has the wind to its back as we head into the Northern Hemisphere Summer, with WTI crude having rallied 13% since the 4 June lows. The rally from $72 has seen price retrace a decent portion of the falls seen between April and June - which resulted in the market running one of the most bearish positions we’ve seen in years. Clearly, the demand side of the equation has seen that positioning challenged, and along with a punchy 8.8m barrel draw in the weekly inventory report, has resulted in a strong push higher in price. Given we’re now seeing price trending, amid building momentum, there are signs that systematic players (CTAs) are chasing this move above $81 higher and therefore strength begets strength. Given the still low positioning, and deeply backwardated crude futures curve that really incentivizes oil traders to be long the front-month WTI crude futures for the carry (upon expiration), the near-term signs look positive for crude, where pullbacks should offer opportunity and we’d be looking for a push into $85, perhaps even to revisit the highs seen in April of $87.63.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDELong
by Pepperstone
Looking to sell WTI crude (USOUSD) … the week of 17 June, 2024Often times, the 200dma is a great dynamic support and resistance. See how effective it has been for the past 6 weeks as resistance as multiple attempts were made by the bulls. The up trendline was broken recently and last week it was re-tested from below. The round number 80.00 and the fact that long-term we are in a downtrend are all factors of confluence. There are so many reasons supporting a sell but the short-term trend is bullish. I want to see some bearish evidence before committing to a trade. A bullish continuation past the 80.00 level and the 200dma will negate my analysis. As you can see, this has the potential to be a +5R trade. Staying patient and allowing for market to make its moves will be required. This is not a trade recommendation. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose. Anything can happen in the markets at any time. Please use sound money and risk management in all your trades. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!!
VANTAGE:USOUSDShort
by Trading_Vista
1
Crude oil eyes $80, but resistance loomsWTI is on track for a bullish engulfing week to snap a 3-week losing streak. And as it fell over 17% from the April high, it could pave the way for further gains in the coming weeks. However, there are plenty of resistance levels around the $80 that could spur bears from the side lines. The May VPOC and VAH sit around Wednesday's high, and the monthly R1 and weekly R2 near the May high. So whilst another crack at $80 seems more likely than note, the $80 area could be an interesting area to fade into. Strong support sits around $75.50, making it a viable target for bears and area for bulls to reconsider entering for an anticipated move above $80.
NYMEX:CL1!
by CityIndex
WTI Oil - 4H Sell OpportunityThe WTI Oil chart shows a compelling setup for a short position. The price has rallied into a significant resistance zone around $79, coinciding with a strong downward trend line that has been respected multiple times. This area acts as a confluence of resistance, providing a high-probability entry for selling. Given the persistent bearish trend, this resistance zone is likely to hold, reinforcing the potential for a downward move. The chart indicates that selling WTI Oil at this juncture offers a good risk-to-reward opportunity, aiming for a decline towards lower support levels as shown by the red arrows.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Sober_Trading
1
USOIL is Under PressureWTI crude oil futures are experiencing a downturn, currently priced at $79.37 per barrel, marking a 0.48% decrease. This decline is attributed to the global economic challenges that are negatively impacting the demand forecast. Similarly, Brent crude has seen a reduction in price, now at $83.88 per barrel. The economic recovery in China is progressing slower than expected, and the anticipation of additional interest rate hikes is exacerbating concerns over economic growth, exerting further downward pressure on oil prices. In the United States, crude oil inventories have witnessed an increase of 3.4 million barrels in the previous week, contributing to the existing oversupply. The persistent risk of a recession continues to place significant stress on the oil market. Meanwhile, amidst these market conditions, option sentiment from the CME exchange suggests a robust support level at $75 for WTI futures in the nearest expiration series. This sentiment indicates a strong market belief that prices are unlikely to fall below this threshold, providing a measure of stability despite the current market volatility. For investors and market watchers, these indicators from the options market are a critical piece of the puzzle, offering insights into future price movements and trader expectations.
NYMEX:CLM2024Short
by ClashChartsTeam
OIL (WTI) - 4H Three PushThe WTI Oil 4H chart displays a classic bullish reversal pattern, often referred to as the "three pushes" or "three drives" pattern. This pattern is characterized by three distinct attempts by the market to push lower, each attempt being met with increasing buying interest. The current setup shows that after three downward pushes, the price has started to rebound, indicating a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. The price action has recently broken above the upper boundary of the descending wedge, which suggests a weakening bearish trend and the possibility of a new bullish phase. The target for this bullish movement could be around the $84 level, where previous resistance lies. Traders should watch for continued higher highs and higher lows to confirm the upward trajectory, and consider long positions as the price action aligns with this bullish reversal signal.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Sober_Trading
Crude Oil: Long Position Amidst Support and SeasonalityWe are considering a long position on crude oil, given that the price has reached a significant support area. This support level is reinforced by a divergence observed on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting a potential reversal in the current trend. Additionally, seasonality data supports the likelihood of a bullish movement during this period. The convergence of these technical indicators and historical trends strengthens our conviction for a long setup. The RSI divergence indicates that the recent downward momentum may be waning, while the support area provides a strong foundation for a potential price rebound. Furthermore, seasonality data, which highlights recurring patterns in price behavior during specific times of the year, suggests that crude oil prices are poised for an upward movement. In light of these factors, we are looking to establish a long position on crude oil, capitalizing on the technical setup and historical data that align to suggest a favorable entry point for a bullish trade.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by FOREXN1
1
CRUDE OIL (CLN2024, USOIL, WTI)... BEARISH!Bias is Bullish. Daily TF shows 2 weeks of consolidation supported by a Daily +FVG. Friday finally saw a "BO" as price traded through the swing high with a close above it. Note that price is now inside the a Daily -FVG. Potential for a bearish reaction? Yes. However, I believe it will be short term if anything. The 4H gives more detail. One can see bullish structure in place that will support a move higher, potentially to to test 80.21. Thank you for viewing! Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! May profits be upon you.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by RT_Money
4