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Wticrudeoil

Technical analysis update: WTI oil (3rd January 2022)WTI oil rose over 20% since its low at 61.46 USD on 2nd December 2021. We previously noted that weakness in the general stock market posed a threat for further rise of the price of USOIL in the short-term. However, since then the general stock market seems to stabilize. Because of that we regained our bullish view; additionally, we would like to set a short-term price target for USOIL to 77 USD. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI continues to develop bullish structure. Stochastic is also bullish and MACD performed a bullish crossover above 0 points which further bolsters the bullish case for USOIL. DM+ and DM- show mixed conditions; and ADX declined substantially which suggests that the prevailing trend lost strength. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI points to the upside which is bullish. Stochastic is bullish too and MACD started to flatten (still in the bullish zone). We will observe MACD in the following weeks and we will watch out whether it manages to stay within the bullish zone and reverse back to the upside. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions while ADX continues to decline. Though, ADX's value is a little bit higher than the value of ADX on a daily time frame. Illustration 1.01 Picture above shows the weekly chart of USOIL. It also shows setup for head and shoulders being formed. We will observe whether this pattern will continue to develop further. However, at the moment, we believe this pattern will get distorted and price will continue higher. Support and resistance Following support and resistance levels are derived from the peaks and troughs in price of USOIL. Short-term support sits at 73.30 USD and short-term resistance lies at 77.41 USD. Next closest resistance appears at 79.20 USD and then at 81.78 USD. Major resistance lies at 85.39 USD. Major support level can be found at 61.76 USD. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
4
WTI Crude Oil ForecastAs we get back to work, traders will have to put money back on their books in order to take risk on, and crude oil certainly looks like it is a great candidate for something like that. With the 50 day EMA sitting just below the $75 level, that means that the $75 level has little bit more psychology attached to it than usual. Nonetheless, you can see that we have skyrocketed over the last couple of weeks and I think it has become obvious as to which direction traders are starting to trade this market now that massive lockdowns due to the omicron seem to be off the table. That was one of the biggest concerns that most traders had, that economies would have to shut down and thereby kill the idea of demand for energy. Now that traders have to get back to work, they will find alpha to generate, and crude oil is one of the best places to do so. While we did not completely wipe out the massive selloff from about a month ago, we got awfully close to it and that does suggest that perhaps we will eventually make that attempt once traders start to put full positions back on. Another thing to pay attention to is the jobs numbers coming on Friday, and that will also give us a big “heads up” as to potential energy demand, so it could be yet another reason to think that the market may go higher over the intermediate term. I have no interest in shorting this market right now, as I believe it is well supported all the way down to at least $70.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: January 2022WTI Crude Oil Outlook for January Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 67.00 to 89.00 USD. If WTI falters below the 73.00 level and begins to challenge prices below 70.00 this may be perceived as a bearish sign in the market. Having touched the 66.00 level in the middle of December, some traders may feel the urge to test downward momentum of WTI Crude Oil believing it can retest those lows. However, traders shorting the commodity should not get too ambitious. The current direction of WTI may prove to be a solid bullish signal. If lows are tested, they may provide a solid position to ignite buying positions. If WTI Crude Oil is able to penetrate the 77.00 price level and sustain its momentum, the price of 78.00 should be watched carefully. Technically, there is reason to suspect if late November prices are challenged with upwards price action that the 80.00 juncture could become a speculative playground for WTI like it was able to display in October and November. While some skeptics may believe WTI Crude Oil has been overbought in the short term, the price is actually still under levels displayed a month and a half ago. If positive market sentiment continues to build into the global economic picture, traders may believe WTI could begin to challenge marks above 80.00 and aim for the 82.00 to 84.00 ratios without too many hurdles. Bullish traders who are optimistic may believe there is another leg higher that can be demonstrated in January for WTI Crude Oil. WTI Crude Oil looks set to begin January within the higher realms of it one-month chart. That is a simple enough perception. But the fight for higher values has not been easy. Essentially from the second week of October until the middle of November, WTI Crude Oil was trading above the 80.00 USD level. Highs on the 25th of October saw the 85.00 mark challenged and this was nearly duplicated on the 10th of November. On the 25th of November WTI Crude Oil was trading near 77.00, two days later it was challenging the 67.00 ratio. On the 2nd of December the 62.00 mark came within sight for the commodity. A price recovery ensued with choppy conditions prevailing, but on the 16th of December WTI was near 73.00, when a reversal lower abruptly took place again and a low of nearly 66.00 USD per barrel was demonstrated on the 20th. However since that recent low WTI Crude Oil has been a buyers’ market and as of this writing the commodity is approaching 77.00 USD. Technically WTI has certainly confronted speculators with choppy conditions and risk management has proven an important tool. However, the swift movement in value has also provided traders an opportunity to take advantage of volatility and test their perceptions as global conditions move because of headline ‘noise’ and speculative nervousness. While Crude Oil certainly saw its value erode in late November due to a new onslaught of fears caused by the Omicron variant, the past couple of weeks have seen an incremental climb. WTI Crude Oil now appears ready to begin January near values which could be ready to test marks last seen before the new coronavirus fears struck the marketplace in late November. Technical traders may be somewhat skeptical of the move higher seen the past week because they may believe this has something to do with light holiday trading. While it may prove to be an important facet of the actual market regarding volumes, the ability of WTI Crude Oil to fight off of lows seen in early December and go into January almost having recovered it total price seen in late November is intriguing.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Price Captures 50-Day EMAThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rallied on Friday to capture the 50-day EMA. That is a very good sign and it looks as if we are ready to break out. That being said, we will have to see how this plays out due to the fact that there are a lot of questions as to whether or not the lockdowns are going to be an issue. At this point, it does not seem to be as big of an issue, so the question now is did we see the massive selloff due to fears of the omicron variant, or are there are concerns about slowing growth in general? When you look at the chart, you can see that the $73 level had offered quite a bit of resistance, and now that we have broken above there, it does suggest that we are ready to continue going higher. At this point, I would anticipate a move towards the $79 level, which is where the wipeout candle came into play several weeks ago. Getting to the top of that would be a very bullish turn of events for the crude oil market, and it certainly looks as if we could make that move based upon the fact that there really is not much in the way of resistance between here and there other than the 50 day EMA where we are currently sitting. That is only psychological at best, so it is very likely that we are going to continue grinding away to the upside. If we do pull back from here, I think that the $73 level should offer a certain amount of support as it had been previous resistance, so “market memory” could come into play. If we turn around and break down below the $73 level, then we may have to reset at much lower levels, but right now that does not look like it is the most likely of outcomes. Looking at this chart, it looks to me like the recovery has been very strong, and I think the momentum will continue to pick up. Over the next couple of days, I would anticipate more of a back-and-forth type of situation, but by the time we get back to work in January, we could go much higher.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
WTI OIL The important 1D MA50 testWell I've been tracking and trading the pattern you see on this chart for over a month and the very last formations have played out particularly well: Right now WTI is ahead of the first important test of this uptrend, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) which is currently posing as a Resistance. If that breaks, we have a strong case of a bullish continuation. However, this the current wave is repeating that of August - September quite closely, the (yellow) Lower Highs trend-line will be critical as well, and what I am particularly looking as confirmation is a rejection there, hold on the 1D MA50 and the red Ichimoku area and then a strong bullish break-out. The RSI is so far on course for its Symmetrical Resistance of those Lower Highs. If that breaks, our next target will be $85.00. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Approaching 50 Day EMAThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially dipped a bit during the day on Thursday, only to turn around and show signs of life again. By doing so, it appears that we are threatening the 50 day EMA just above. This of course is an important technical indicator that a lot of people pay attention to, so do not be surprised at all to see a bit of a reaction. You should also keep in mind that the Friday session is a shortened futures session due to the holiday, so therefore you need to be early to the market. Once we hit noon in New York, things will suddenly drift off. Crude does look like it is trying to take out the 50 day EMA and whether or not it can do it on Friday is a completely different question. However, it certainly looks as if we are building up pressure to do just that. If we do take out the 50 day EMA, then my next target would be the $70.40 level, where we had sold off from previously. If we were to take out that big wipeout candle, that would of course be a very bullish turn of events for the market. That being said, I am hesitant to put on big positions this time year anyway, and especially a market like oil which shuts down. The 200 day EMA underneath at the $69.43 level is the “floor the market” from what I see, so as long as we stay above there, I think we still have a good shot at rallying, but if we were to take that out to the downside, then I would anticipate a move down to the $65 level. There is a lot of push and pull when it comes to the idea of demand for crude oil, as omicron variant has not been as bad as people had anticipated. With that in mind, I think people are starting to step out into the risk curve a little bit and buy oil. Ultimately, a lot of this will be settled in January, but it certainly looks as if we are going to end the year on the right foot when it comes to crude oil prices and therefore the buyers will probably feel pretty good going into January.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
Elliott Wave count for OILHello everyone hope you spending a good weekend, Here's the update for WTI Crude Oil in H1 timeframe, In the last count in H1 timeframe I expected to see an impulse for the first leg of wave X but seems the first leg is done already with 3 waves. You can see the details in the chart, If you have any idea or question about this scenario please share with us in comment. I will provide more Elliott wave count daily if you are interested follow us to receive updates. 📣 Attention 📣 ⚠️ 1. We publish this trading idea to help analysts, so if you have an idea that you think is right, do not be influenced by this idea. ⚠️ 2. All our analysis and signals are provided free of charge, so we have no obligation to make any profit or loss on our signals and analysis. ⚠️ 3. If you have an idea, write to us in the comments section, we will be happy to use your idea in our analysis
FX_IDC:USDWTI
by fx_iranian_traders
2
Elliott Wave count for OILHello everyone hope you spending a good weekend, Here's the update for WTI Crude Oil in daily timeframe, as we can see in the chart seems the first leg of wave <2> has been completed and we are in the wave X of this correction. I'll prepare wave count in H1 timeframe to see these movements by more details, see the next post for that. You can see the details in the chart, If you have any idea or question about this scenario please share with us in comment. I will provide more Elliott wave count daily if you are interested follow us to receive updates. 📣 Attention 📣 ⚠️ 1. We publish this trading idea to help analysts, so if you have an idea that you think is right, do not be influenced by this idea. ⚠️ 2. All our analysis and signals are provided free of charge, so we have no obligation to make any profit or loss on our signals and analysis. ⚠️ 3. If you have an idea, write to us in the comments section, we will be happy to use your idea in our analysis
TVC:USOIL
by fx_iranian_traders
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Looks Set to Pull BackThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, only to break down rather significantly and show signs of extreme weakness. By doing so, the market looks as if it is probably going to test the 200 day EMA underneath, which currently sits at the $69.21 level. Whether or not we break down below there is a completely different question, but it is worth noting that the $73 level has been a bit like a brick wall, and therefore I think at the very least we have a pullback coming. The 200 day EMA will obviously attract a lot of attention, but whether or not it holds will remain to be seen. If we break down below there, then it is likely we go looking towards the $65 region, where we had a major uptrend line and a hammer form and bounced from. The market is more than likely going to respect that area, but if we break down below the $65 level, then it is very likely that crude oil will break significantly lower. A lot of this is going to be interesting to watch over the next couple of weeks, because part of what we are seeing here is the fact that liquidity will start to dry up towards the end of the year and therefore you need to pay close attention to your position size. After all, you may get the occasional spike that causes havoc for your account. If we can break above that $73 level finally, then I think the market goes looking towards the $75 level, which also happened to be where the 50 day EMA is. The question now is whether or not the markets are going to start pricing in a massive slow down economically or are they going to start looking towards the fact that demand for crude oil could continue to go higher based upon the reopening trade. Omicron did cause quite a bit of wreckage in risk appetite around the world, but it does look as if the variant is not going to be as dangerous as some of the others. However, if governments continue to try to shut everything down, that obviously has a very negative effect on crude oil.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by SmoothJB
WTI OIL approaching a medium-term ResistanceThis is an update to my WTI Oil outlook made over a week ago: Despite breaking below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the Higher Lows trend-line of the multi-month Bullish Megaphone pattern, the price managed to close all 1D candles within the pattern and formed a Support. It has come very close to my first 73.50 Target which is near the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). I consider this a strong Resistance, in fact the whole zone as high as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), where we can see a weekly consolidation and sideways trading in a similar way as in late August - early September. Short-term traders may buy if the price breaks above the 1D MA100 and target 76.30 and engage for a more long-term trade only if the 1D MA50 breaks (TP 85.00 in that case). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
3
CRUDE OIL / Seeking higher highsTVC:USOIL Let's say this first - I'm no expert and probably wrong . My trading experience is very limited . However I have followed the market fairly closely over the last couple years and today I had too much time to stare at charts. Let's look at the above chart that I haven't been able to look away from today. First chart in question is of WTI Crude Oil since the start of this year. Sentiment has been very bullish during this time with smaller dips developing into larger movements as we've moved towards the end of the year. These white trend lines however have held very well during this period. Volume profile (emphasis highlighted) would seem like there would be less resistance to go up than down. If there would be a sharp move down towards 58 or lower that would be a level where I would start to be more cautious and probably close most of my own positions at least for a while. This recent price movement has been very sharp and would implicate in my view either a significant risk for another lockdown/recessionary period (less demand) or a release of reserves / supply increase (more supply), both of which I think are possible but not that probable in my opinion. China real estate market would be the most obvious and likely source for a longer downtrend in all markets including crude oil, but it seems to be contained for now. Taking a closer look, overall there seems to be good amount of support around the price of this writing at around $66.4. Price action during the last 12 hours also seems supportive in my view, which I followed during the day. As a curiosity, the movement for the second period pictured has been pretty similar to the first one that started on 30th Nov. Again I have very little trading experience but this seems like a good time to be bullish on oil. Long-term I think that under-investment in oil production and infrastructure will prove to be a significant factor in driving crude oil price higher. Feel free to comment what you think. Trade safe.
TVC:USOILLong
by aukust
1
Crude Oil Plummets on OPEC DecisionOPEC Agrees January 2022 Supply Hike Less than one month ago, WTI Crude Oil was trading at about $85 per barrel, which was a multi-year high price. Over the past three weeks the price descended rapidly from that high, and today extended that trend to approach the 6-month low price at $61.76. The pace of this downwards trend accelerated a few days ago with the news of the discovery of the omicron coronavirus variant. As there are fears that this variant may be dealt with by lockdowns and trade shutdowns or delays, if its potency is revealed to be high, we can expect a drop in demand, which will inevitably mean a drop in the price of WTI Crude Oil. It was against this backdrop that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed a short while ago to extend the supply of January 2022 Crude Oil by 400,000 barrels per day. There are initial reports that the members are also agreed to review this decision if demand does drop rapidly over the coming weeks. WTI Crude Oil Price Action The price of WTI Crude Oil has fallen strongly over the past few days. It has fallen by more than 25% in value since reaching a multi-year high of $85.39 on 25th October 2021. The pace of the fall has quickened recently. The drop is showing what might be initial signs of exhaustion as it approaches the key support level at $61.89 which represents the lowest price seen since May 2021. What Does This Mean for Traders? Traders should be aware that if the omicron coronavirus variant is resistant to existing vaccines and can also cause serious illness to vaccinated people, governments may well react by initiating another round of shutdowns for a while, as they did in March and April 2020 when the disease really began to spread worldwide. The lockdowns, shutdowns, and trade restrictions that were put in place in the spring of 2020 did a great deal of economic damage, although most economies rebounded strongly after this period as restrictions were eased. The panic of March 2020 saw huge and very rapid directional movements in the markets, but nothing was as spectacular as the price action in WTI Crude Oil, with futures actually going into negative territory for a while. This and the subsequent strong rebound gave traders and speculators some incredible trade opportunities, first short, then long. If history is going to repeat itself, even if on a smaller scale, the price of WTI Crude Oil has good reasons to fall further, in line with the long-term trend. How far it might fall is anyone’s guess, but if omicron is economically destructive, it is very likely to.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by SmoothJB
1
US oil short position Bears are always welcome in the oil market, we have seen a huge rally for oil in April 2020, some producers have made a big reserve of production. we always see that the market has always to correct the direction allowing some associated to collect their profits, bulls out bears in. for the next period we find bearish news looming on the horizon, -Omicron is snappily getting the dominant COVID-19 variant in South Africa lower than four weeks after it was first discovered in the country, with theU.S. reporting its first case on Wednesday. -Some had speculated that OPEC+ could pause those additions in an attempt to slow supply growth, now expected to yield a surplus of 3.8 million BPD by March 2022, according to an internal report seen by Reuters. OPEC+ is likely to make its decision on Thursday. -The United States, in tandem with several other nations, announced plans in November to release 50 million barrels of its reserves into the market to try to cool energy prices. Retail gasoline prices have barely changed even as unfinished gasoline futures known as RBOB have dropped sharply. News resource ----------------------- theoilsellers.com reuters.com Our position ---------------------- Sell position on 63 $-64 $ ---------------------------- 73.20 $ -74.40 $ sell limit just in case the price reverses against our position before it continues falling ---------------------------- Targeting : 55 $-56 $ support area
TVC:USOILShort
by youssefallax
4