Texas Oil to continue in the downward move at market price?WTI - 24h expiry
Our short term bias remains negative.
Our bespoke support of 77.06 has been clearly broken.
Previous support at 77.50 now becomes resistance.
We look for a temporary move higher.
We look for losses to be extended today.
We look to Sell at 77.50 (stop at 78.30)
Our profit targets will be 75.50 and 75.15
Resistance: 77.13 / 77.50 / 78.00
Support: 76.60 / 75.80 / 75.4
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Wticrudeoil
WTI Oil - 4HWTI oil completed its second bullish leg and has now formed a reversal setup. The price action shows that WTI missed the ascending channel support and is currently consolidating below the previous support zone, which has now turned into a resistance level. This suggests a potential bearish outlook as the price struggles to regain upward momentum.
With the recent break of the ascending channel, it is expected that WTI may continue its downward trajectory. The consolidation under the new resistance zone indicates seller strength, and further declines could be seen if the price fails to break back above this resistance. Traders should watch for key support levels around $81 and $78 for potential buy signals or continuation of the bearish trend.
WTI OIL Correction is over. Buy strongly.WTI Oil (USOIL) followed our July 02 (see chart below) sell signal to perfection as it got rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line and Resistance 1 and broke today below the 0.618 Fib, hitting our 77.00 Target in the process:
For that projection we used the February 05 Low as a benchmark, which also hit the 0.618 Fib and rebounded on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). That has been the multi-year Support level for WTI, so we currently won't get a better long-term buy signal than this.
As a result, we are now turning bullish again on Crude, targeting the -0.5 Fib extension (as on the April 05 High) at 90.50.
Note also that the 1D RSI is almost oversold at 30.00, a clear cyclical buy signal in the recent past (green circles).
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Market Analysis: Crude Oil Price Correct Recent GainsMarket Analysis: Crude Oil Price Correct Recent Gains
Crude oil prices are also moving lower from the $82.20 resistance zone.
Important Takeaways for Oil Prices Analysis Today
- Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $81.30 support zone.
- A major contracting triangle is forming with resistance near $80.70 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $82.20 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $81.30.
The bears even pushed the price below $80.70 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The price even declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $79.25 swing low to the $82.18 high.
The price tested the $80.40 support zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $79.25 swing low to the $82.18 high.
Immediate support is near the $80.40 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near $79.95. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $79.25. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $78.00 support zone.
On the upside, immediate resistance is near a major contracting triangle at $80.70 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next resistance is near the $81.30 level.
The main resistance is near a trend line at $82.20. A clear move above the $82.20 zone could send the price toward $82.50. The next key resistance is near $83.20. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $84.50. Any more gains might send the price toward the $85.00 level.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Exploring Bearish Plays w/ Futures, Micros & Options on FutureIntroduction
The WTI Crude Oil futures market provides various avenues for traders to profit from bullish and bearish market conditions. This article delves into several bearish strategies using standard WTI Crude Oil futures, Micro WTI Crude Oil futures contracts, and options on these futures. Whether you are looking to trade outright futures contracts, construct complex spreads, or utilize options strategies, this publication aims to assist you in formulating effective bearish plays while managing risk efficiently.
Choosing the Right Contract Size
When considering a bearish play on WTI Crude Oil futures, the first decision involves selecting the appropriate contract size. The standard WTI Crude Oil futures and Micro WTI Crude Oil futures contracts offer different levels of exposure and risk.
WTI Crude Oil Futures:
Standardized contracts linked to WTI Crude Oil with a point value = $1,000 per point.
Suitable for traders seeking significant exposure to market movements.
Greater potential for profits but also higher risk due to larger contract size.
TradingView ticker symbol is CL1!
Margin Requirements: As of the current date, the margin requirement for WTI Crude Oil futures is approximately $6,000 per contract. Margin requirements are subject to change and may vary based on the broker and market conditions.
Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures:
Contracts representing one-tenth the value of the standard WTI Crude Oil futures.
Each point move in the Micro WTI Crude Oil futures equals $100.
Ideal for traders who prefer lower exposure and risk.
Allows for more precise risk management and position sizing.
TradingView ticker symbol is MCL1!
Margin Requirements: As of the current date, the margin requirement for Micro WTI Crude Oil futures is approximately $600 per contract. Margin requirements are subject to change and may vary based on the broker and market conditions.
Choosing between standard WTI Crude Oil and Micro WTI Crude Oil futures depends on your risk tolerance, account size, and trading strategy. Smaller contracts like the Micro WTI Crude Oil futures offer flexibility, particularly for newer traders or those with smaller accounts.
Bearish Futures Strategies
Outright Futures Contracts:
Selling WTI Crude Oil futures outright is a straightforward way to express a bearish view on the market. This strategy involves selling a futures contract in anticipation of a decline in oil prices.
Benefits:
Direct exposure to market movements.
Simple execution and understanding.
Ability to leverage positions due to margin requirements.
Risks:
Potential for significant losses if the market moves against your position.
Mark-to-market losses can trigger margin calls.
Example Trade:
Sell one WTI Crude Oil futures contract at 81.00.
Target price: 76.00.
Stop-loss price: 82.50.
This trade aims to profit from a 5.00-point decline in oil prices, with a risk of a 1.50-point rise.
Futures Spreads:
1. Calendar Spreads: A calendar spread, also known as a time spread, involves selling (or buying) a longer-term futures contract and buying (or selling) a shorter-term futures contract with the same underlying asset. This strategy profits from the difference in price movements between the two contracts.
Benefits:
Reduced risk compared to outright futures positions.
Potential to profit from changes in the futures curve.
Risks:
Limited profit potential compared to outright positions.
Changes in contango or backwardation could hurt the position.
Example Trade:
Sell an October WTI Crude Oil futures contract.
Buy a September WTI Crude Oil futures contract.
Target spread: Decrease in the difference between the two contract prices.
In this example, the trader expects the October contract to lose more value relative to the September contract over time. The profit is made if the spread between the December and September contracts widens.
2. Butterfly Spreads: A butterfly spread involves a combination of long and short futures positions at different expiration dates. This strategy profits from minimal price movement around a central expiration date. It is constructed by selling (or buying) a futures contract, buying (or selling) two futures contracts at a nearer expiration date, and selling (or buying) another futures contract at an even nearer expiration date.
Benefits:
Reduced risk compared to outright futures positions.
Profits from stable prices around the middle expiration date.
Risks:
Limited profit potential compared to other spread strategies or outright positions.
Changes in contango or backwardation could hurt the position.
Example Trade:
Sell one November WTI Crude Oil futures contract.
Buy two October WTI Crude Oil futures contracts.
Sell one September WTI Crude Oil futures contract.
In this example, the trader expects WTI Crude Oil prices to remain relatively stable.
Bearish Options Strategies
1. Long Puts: Buying put options on WTI Crude Oil futures is a classic bearish strategy. It allows traders to benefit from downward price movements while limiting potential losses to the premium paid for the options.
Benefits:
Limited risk to the premium paid.
Potential for significant profit if the underlying futures contract price falls.
Leverage, allowing control of a large position with a relatively small investment.
Risks:
Potential loss of the entire premium if the market does not move as expected.
Time decay, where the value of the option decreases as the expiration date approaches.
Example Trade:
Buy one put option on WTI Crude Oil futures with a strike price of 81.00, expiring in 30 days.
Target price: 76.00.
Stop-loss: Premium paid (e.g., 2.75 points x $1,000 per contract).
If the WTI Crude Oil futures price drops below 81.00, the put option gains value, and the trader can sell it for a profit. If the price stays above 78.25, the trader loses only the premium paid.
2. Synthetic Short: Creating a synthetic short involves buying a put option and selling a call option at the same strike price and expiration. This strategy mimics holding a short position in the underlying futures contract.
Benefits:
Similar profit potential to shorting the futures contract.
Flexibility in managing risk and adjusting positions.
Risks:
Potential for unlimited losses if the market moves significantly against the position.
Requires margin to sell the call option.
Example Trade:
Buy one put option on WTI Crude Oil futures at 81.00, expiring in 30 days.
Sell one call option on WTI Crude Oil futures at 81.00, expiring in 30 days.
Target price: 76.00.
The profit and loss (PnL) profile of the synthetic short position would be the same as holding a short position in the underlying futures contract. If the price falls, the position gains value dollar-for-dollar with the underlying futures contract. If the price rises, the position loses value in the same manner.
3. Bearish Options Spreads: Options offer versatility and adaptability, allowing traders to design various bearish spread strategies. These strategies can be customized to specific market conditions, risk tolerances, and trading goals. Popular bearish options spreads include:
Vertical Put Spreads
Bear Put Spreads
Put Debit Spreads
Ratio Put Spreads
Diagonal Put Spreads
Calendar Put Spreads
Bearish Butterfly Spreads
Bearish Condor Spreads
Etc.
Example Trade:
Bear Put Spread: Buying the 81.00 put and selling the 75.00 put with 30 days to expiration.
Risk Profile Graph:
This example shows a bear put spread aiming to profit from a decline in WTI Crude Oil prices while limiting potential losses.
For detailed explanations and examples of these and other bearish options spread strategies, please refer to our published ideas under the "Options Blueprint Series." These resources provide in-depth analysis and step-by-step guidance.
Trading Plan
A well-defined trading plan is crucial for successfully executing any strategy. Here’s a step-by-step guide to formulating your plan:
1. Select the Strategy: Choose between outright futures contracts, calendar or butterfly spreads, or options strategies based on your market outlook and risk tolerance.
2. Determine Entry and Exit Points:
Entry price: Define the price level at which you will enter the trade (e.g., breakout, UFO resistance, indicators convergence/divergence, etc.).
Target price: Set a realistic target based on technical analysis or market projections.
Stop-loss price: Establish a stop-loss level to manage risk and limit potential losses.
3. Position Sizing: Calculate the appropriate position size based on your account size and risk tolerance. Ensure that the position aligns with your overall portfolio strategy.
4. Risk Management: Implement risk management techniques such as using stop-loss orders, hedging, and diversifying positions to protect your capital. Risk management is vital in trading to protect your capital and ensure long-term success.
Conclusion
In this article, we've explored various bearish strategies using WTI Crude Oil futures, Micro WTI Crude Oil futures, and options on futures. From outright futures contracts to sophisticated spreads and options strategies, traders have multiple tools to capitalize on bearish market conditions while managing their risk effectively.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
WTI Crude Oil Bearish Heist Plan to make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist WTI Crude Oil Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Stop Loss : Recent Swing High using 4h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
WTI - 1H Bullish SignsBased on the previous 15-minute analysis and the current 1-hour chart, WTI Crude Oil is showing strong support around the $83.00 zone. This area has acted as a significant support level, and the price has bounced off it, indicating a potential buy opportunity.
On the 15-minute chart, the price had a brief consolidation phase within the support zone before showing signs of upward momentum. This aligns with the 1-hour chart, where the price is currently attempting to rise from the same support area. The consistency in this support zone across different timeframes strengthens the bullish outlook.
Currently, WTI Crude Oil is poised to continue its upward movement from the support level, targeting higher resistance levels. Traders should look for confirmation of this bullish trend with potential higher highs and higher lows forming on the 1-hour chart. If the price maintains its support above $83.00, it could provide a favorable risk-reward ratio for long positions, aiming for the next resistance levels around $84.00 and beyond.
In summary, the support zone around $83.00 has held well, and the current bullish momentum suggests a buying opportunity in WTI Crude Oil, with an eye on higher resistance levels in the near term.
WTI Crude Oil - 4H Still BullishWTI Crude Oil shows promising bullish momentum as it consolidates above a key static support zone, indicating potential for further gains. The price action demonstrates two major bullish legs, with the current position in the middle of the second major leg, suggesting continued upward movement.
Additionally, the presence of a second minor leg forming suggests that the bullish momentum might lead to a breakout, propelling prices to higher targets. Traders should monitor the minor leg’s completion and potential further advances in the price of oil, taking advantage of the bullish trend.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST: INDICES, GOLD, SILVER, US OILThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast.
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW JONES GOLD SILVER WTI CRUDE OIL
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
WTI OIL Death Cross formed Pullback to $76 would be very healthyWTI Oil (USOIL) is forming a Death Cross on the 1D time-frame, the first since December 22 2023. That comes after the former Channel Down had a bullish break-out following a rebound on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), a series of events that happened also on December 20 2023 and before that on May 17 2023.
We already have a 1D MACD Bullish Cross. Circling back to the 1D Death Cross, the one on December 22 2023 formed a short-term top that had the price pull back within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci retracement Zone.
As a result, even though we have confirmed a new long-term uptrend, we technically turn bearish on the short-term, expecting a pull-back towards the 0.618 Fib, targeting $76.00.
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Crude oil eyes $80, but resistance loomsWTI is on track for a bullish engulfing week to snap a 3-week losing streak. And as it fell over 17% from the April high, it could pave the way for further gains in the coming weeks. However, there are plenty of resistance levels around the $80 that could spur bears from the side lines.
The May VPOC and VAH sit around Wednesday's high, and the monthly R1 and weekly R2 near the May high. So whilst another crack at $80 seems more likely than note, the $80 area could be an interesting area to fade into.
Strong support sits around $75.50, making it a viable target for bears and area for bulls to reconsider entering for an anticipated move above $80.
WTI Oil - 4H Sell OpportunityThe WTI Oil chart shows a compelling setup for a short position. The price has rallied into a significant resistance zone around $79, coinciding with a strong downward trend line that has been respected multiple times. This area acts as a confluence of resistance, providing a high-probability entry for selling.
Given the persistent bearish trend, this resistance zone is likely to hold, reinforcing the potential for a downward move. The chart indicates that selling WTI Oil at this juncture offers a good risk-to-reward opportunity, aiming for a decline towards lower support levels as shown by the red arrows.
CRUDE OIL (CL): Weak Momentum Likely to Persist?Assalamualaikum wbt and Good Day to fellow traders!
From my rather simplistic view, the overall two-hour time frame (TF2hr) chart seems to indicate that the prices for WTI Light Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ) could go further south at least for the time being.
The further potential weakness is being reinforced by the significant key moving averages (in this case Exponential Moving Averages or EMAs ) - the EMA50 (blue line) and EMA200 (amber line) - in which the Black Gold sits below those lines since April 17, 2024.
Despite several rebound attempts, the commodity has continued to slide downwards making some notable Lower Lows and Lower Highs until recently last Friday while trading range-bound in between.
In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also flashed a cautious sell signal last Friday following a cross over.
On top of that, the obvious rejection at the 76.03-76.30 key level could possibly suggest that the bearish momentum is still in play.
However, a bullish reversal may occur should the MACD crossover take place above the 0 line with the help of a significant volume, as well as the two EMAs crossing up.
Wallahu a'lam.
#cl #crudeoil #wti #blackgold #exponentialmovingaverage #ema #macd
WTI OIL Oversold. Short-term buy signal.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit the bottom of the 2-month Channel Down and is consolidating since yesterday. This prompts to being a technical Lower Low for the pattern and the buy signal gets even stronger as the 1D RSI broke below the oversold barrier for the first time in 6 months (since December 06 2023).
The 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) provided the last rejection (Lower High) on May 29, so that is our Resistance and unless we break above it, the long-term trend remains bearish. But on the short-term we will use this oversold opportunity to buy and target 75.70 (+4.65% rise, which has been the minimum Bullish Leg % within the Channel Down.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Oversold offers a buy opportunity.WTI Crude Oil has turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 29.383, MACD = -1.620, ADX = 31.641) as the price is approaching the bottom of the 2 month Channel Down. As long as it remains under the 1D MA50, the long term trend will be bearish but the oversold conditions and the 1D MACD, which is replicating the early December 2023 bottom pattern, call for a low risk short term buy opportunity. We are targeting the top of the Channel Down and no higher than the 0.382 Fibonacci level (TP = 76.00).
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Opportunities to profit sideways.WTI Crude Oil turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.681, MACD = -1.020, ADX = 30.568) but remains neutral on 1W (RSI = 46.231) as it is approaching again the 1W MA200. That is a critical Support as not only it is untouched since February 5th but is the long term level that Oil has been bouncing aggressively on since March 2023. We look towards a Rectangle consolidation-accumulation as the last two times that the 1W MA200 was tested. We will buy on S1 and target the R1 level (TP = 80.60). Until we close over the 1D MA50, our strategy is to scalp this range.
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OIL (WTI) - 4H Three PushThe WTI Oil 4H chart displays a classic bullish reversal pattern, often referred to as the "three pushes" or "three drives" pattern. This pattern is characterized by three distinct attempts by the market to push lower, each attempt being met with increasing buying interest. The current setup shows that after three downward pushes, the price has started to rebound, indicating a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
The price action has recently broken above the upper boundary of the descending wedge, which suggests a weakening bearish trend and the possibility of a new bullish phase. The target for this bullish movement could be around the $84 level, where previous resistance lies. Traders should watch for continued higher highs and higher lows to confirm the upward trajectory, and consider long positions as the price action aligns with this bullish reversal signal.
Crude Oil / Brent Oil Robbery Plan in Bullish SideMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist Crude Oil based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level Police Force is waiting for our arrival, Market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan,
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money Use Trailing Stop To Protect Looted Money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order Block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target it will update after the Breakouts.
support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.