CRUDE OIL / Seeking higher highsTVC:USOIL
Let's say this first - I'm no expert and probably wrong . My trading experience is very limited . However I have followed the market fairly closely over the last couple years and today I had too much time to stare at charts. Let's look at the above chart that I haven't been able to look away from today.
First chart in question is of WTI Crude Oil since the start of this year. Sentiment has been very bullish during this time with smaller dips developing into larger movements as we've moved towards the end of the year. These white trend lines however have held very well during this period. Volume profile (emphasis highlighted) would seem like there would be less resistance to go up than down.
If there would be a sharp move down towards 58 or lower that would be a level where I would start to be more cautious and probably close most of my own positions at least for a while.
This recent price movement has been very sharp and would implicate in my view either a significant risk for another lockdown/recessionary period (less demand) or a release of reserves / supply increase (more supply), both of which I think are possible but not that probable in my opinion. China real estate market would be the most obvious and likely source for a longer downtrend in all markets including crude oil, but it seems to be contained for now.
Taking a closer look, overall there seems to be good amount of support around the price of this writing at around $66.4. Price action during the last 12 hours also seems supportive in my view, which I followed during the day. As a curiosity, the movement for the second period pictured has been pretty similar to the first one that started on 30th Nov.
Again I have very little trading experience but this seems like a good time to be bullish on oil. Long-term I think that under-investment in oil production and infrastructure will prove to be a significant factor in driving crude oil price higher.
Feel free to comment what you think. Trade safe.
Wtilong
WTI starting to recover from inflation driven plungeHello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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Oil prices surged above $83 per barrel in volatile trading on Thursday, recovering from significant drops caused by concerns about rising US inflation, as OPEC reduced its 2021 oil demand prediction owing to high energy prices.
In a monthly report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated that it expected oil consumption to average 99.49 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2021, a 330,000 bpd decrease from last month's prediction.
Possible Scenario for the market :
The market is currently trading at $81.26 and looks like it going to the support line located at $80.17 where a battle will happen between the Bears and the Bulls over control, the outcome will probably be in favor of the bulls which will cause the market to increase in value reaching the first resistance at $84.08.
in case the demand for oil increases even more then we will most likely see a further push that could reach the $88.00 level by the end of the week.
Technical Analysis show :
1) The market is below the 5 10 20 MA and EMA indicating a Bearish Short-term movement, but still above the 50 100 and 200 MA and EMA indicating a Bullish Long-term trend
2) The RSI is at 51.61 showing good strength in the market with a small Bullish divergence that could be a sign of a Bearish short-term trend.
3) The MACD is above the 0 line still indicating a Bullish market, but it has a Negative crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line indicating a small Bearish movement.
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 80.17 1) 84.08
2) 78.63 2) 86.45
3) 76.26 3) 87.99
Fundamental point of view :
OPEC expects global consumption to hit 100 million bpd in the third quarter of 2022, three months later than predicted last month.
On Wednesday, data indicated that inflation in the United States surged by 6.2 percent, the quickest rate in 30 years, owing primarily to increasing energy prices, which pushed the dollar higher while sending Brent and WTI oil down by 2.5 % and 3.3 %, respectively.
A surge in US oil supplies following the government's release of some critical reserves pushed up prices even further.
In reaction to rising inflation, US President Joe Biden stated he directed the National Economic Council to concentrate on lowering energy costs and the Federal Trade Commission to crack down on market manipulation in the energy industry in order to reverse inflation.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
USOIL told you exactly how the market is going to moveHello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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On September 13 I posted an idea explaining how the USOIL was close to a breakout and that you should keep your eyes on the market for the next few days, and posted 2 Scenarios of how the market is most likely to move.
Looking at the market today we can see that the first Scenario has happened exactly as I predicted.
Over the past few weeks, oil prices have continued to proceed along an upward trajectory as commodity shortages remain a key concern for global economies. noticed that the market has brokeout the main resistance zone located between 70.40 - 70.63 and started to gain momentum that drove the price up hitting the 76.43 level yesterday, That is almost a 9% increase in 2 weeks alone
Possible Scenarios for the market :
Scenario 1 :
The market seems to be nearing the first support line located at 73.76, if the price was able to drop below and close then we could be seeing a small Bearish movement that could lead the market down to the second support at 72.89 or even below back to the main support zone at 70.40 - 70.63, where a bounce back in price will probably happen leading the price back up again to its current level.
Scenario 2 :
The Bulls are trying to gain control over the market today in hope of staying away from the support level and going back up near the first resistance level at 76.18 where a battle over control will happen and the winner will determine the outcome movement of the market, If the Bears were to win then we might see a drop to the first support at 73.76 where a bounce most likely will happen.
If the Bulls were to win then we will see an increase in price that could lead the market to the 77.73 or even the 80.74 level in the next period of time.
Technical indicators show :
1) The market is above the 10 20 50 100 and 200 MA and EMA (Strong Bullish sign)
2) The RSI is at 61.31 showing Great strength in the market, With no divergence found between the market and the indicator
3) The MACD is above the 0 line indicating that the market is in a Bullish state, With a positive crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line
Daily Support and Resistance :
support Resistance
1) 73.76 1) 76.18
2) 72.89 2) 77.73
3) 71.34 3) 78.60
Weekly Support and Resistance :
support Resistance
1) 71.06 1) 75.90
2) 67.93 2) 77.61
3) 66.22 3) 80.74
Fundamental point of view :
The price of Brent crude oil continues to soar, touching highs last seen three years ago as demand outstrips supply. The continued rollback of covid-19 restrictions in economies around the globe is driving demand ever higher with supply struggling to keep up. OPEC+ will meet next – October 4 – and they may need to increase production further to help alleviate the market shortage. Brent crude touched $80/bbl. earlier and may now set its sights on the October 2018 high at $86.65/bbl. if the OPEC+ leaves production at its levels. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will also release its World Oil Outlook next week and this now takes on increased significance as prices rally hard. According to Dailyfx
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
Technical analysis update: USOIL (12th August 2021)USOIL struggles to move up since announcement of supply boost by OPEC. On 20th July 2021 price found its support at 65.11 USD. On 9th August 2021 price again dropped and halted its decline at 65.17 USD (6 cents above support). After that 2 trading sessions with higher low and higher high followed. RSI seems to develop similar pattern as price itself. It did not cross below 30 points to the oversold zone. Instead it reversed above this level. This is normally associated with corrections in strong bull trends of higher degree. MACD is bearish but flattening out. Stochastics strives to reverse to the upside as ADX contains low value. We think these circumstances could potentionally signal temporary bottom for USOIL and thus end of correction. We would like to set short term price target for USOIL to 70 USD. Our medium term price target remains 77.50 USD and our long term price target remains 80 USD.
Developements from 5th August 2021:
Here we expressed our belief that 65 USD support level would hold in case of further selling pressure.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI CRUDE RESUMING IT'S UPTREND 07 JulyPrice has been moving within a channel as my H4 chart shows. Both channel extremities have been respected several times already.
The higher time frame confirms a bullish trend in place... these reasons and a tight stop give me all the reasons I need to take a long.
I will be doing that as soon as the Asian trading session settles down in a couple of hours.
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Always use sound money and risk management in all your trades.
US Stock In Play: $WTI (W&T Offshore Inc)With Oil and Gas stocks continue to rally up form their 2020 lows, and SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF ($XOP) already above its Pre-Covid levels, $WTI rally of +24.06% over the past weeks of trading upon the high volume break of a two weeks consolidated pattern, continue to suggest it is playing catch up relative to the broader sector.
With management of $WTI owning 35% of the common stock, it provides a strong alignment of incentives. Its offshore's asset values alone suggest that the shares are underpriced and may be worth $6-$7.
The immediate resistance for $WTI is at $5.
$WTI an independent oil and natural gas producer, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties in the Gulf of Mexico. The company sells crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. It holds working interest in approximately 43 offshore fields in federal and state waters. The company also owns interest in approximately 146 offshore structures.
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (24th May 2021)WTI oil continues its choppy sideways price action. However, we still remain bullish and our targets remain unchanged. Our short term price target is 67.50 USD per barrel while our medium term price target is 70 USD per barrel. We expect demand to pick up over the summer as travel curbs will ease and people will start to travel more. In addition to that oil failed to fall on headlines of Iran coming back to the market. We interpret this as very bullish.
Technical analysis update: XOM (8th May 2021)XOM currently shows very high correlation with oil price. This coincides with our bullish outlook for oil prices. Furthermore, technical analysis of RSI and MACD remains bullish. We also see buildup in volume. Because of that we would like to upgrade our short term price target for Exxon Mobil to 65 USD per share. We believe that XOM will break above resistance at 62.55 USD during the next week. We view this as possible catalyst for move up.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI bulls lining upThe black gold has been recovering slowly but steadily. After breaking the strong psychical level at the 64 handle, it recorded a fresh higher high at 65.44.
Price action has recently retested the broken level, in confluence with Fib golden level 618. It might signal an uptrend continuation. Fundamentally speaking, the bulls dove in after reports of gasoline demand hitting pre-pandemic levels, signaling strength and revitalization from global consumption.
Confluence signals:
Breakout of resistance level
Retest of broken level
End of correction at Fib golden level
MACD turning up, potential cross
RSI at no men land
Please keep in mind that nobody can predict the future, but odds play clearly on the bulls' field.
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WTI Crude Oil.. Analysis..Crude oil is one of the most in-demand commodities, with the two most popularly traded grades of oil being Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Crude oil prices reflect the market’s volatile and liquid nature, as well as oil being a benchmark for global economic activity. The oil price charts offer live data and comprehensive price action on WTI Crude and Brent Crude patterns. Get information on key pivot points, support and resistance and crude oil news.
Daily Classical Pivot Points. Last Updated: Apr 25, 2021
Crude oil barely holding at $48
WTI closed yesterday under sellers' pressure stripping 1.46% of value in one session. Although technically speaking, it has failed to form a new HH, the market remains supported by an ascending trendline.
While flashing mild gains today, the price is still looking ahead to the $49 handle that holds the key to a further bulls' run-up. $49 handle was last visited as a price's support in February, just before the bloodbath in the energy market. With a kind of flat MACD and RSI in no man's land, further confirmation is need by the investors before placing their bets.
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OIL WTI Targets $50 Next? Watch Video!Where is OIL WTI headed next?
Our previous tradingview analysis on OIL has offered us and our followers a highly profitable low risk swing trade. Watch the video to learn more about the next trade we will be taking in this market.
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Crude oil on a positive noteUnexpected report from the US crude oil stockpile with the drawdown of 3.1M kept the market on a positive note, with a clear path towards the 49$ handle where today's trading session candle has not registered any rejection confirming the total control on the buyers' side.
However, the continuous raging of new coronavirus infection will remain to hover the energy market.
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WTI- Can it reach 50?After a few days of consolidation between 39 and 42, Oil broke above resistance and also above the recent 43 high and looks determined to continue higher.
The chart looks very constructive and with this new "vaccine" and wave of optimism crude oil could find strong bids that can drive the price to 50 old support now resistance.
As long as the price is above 43 on a daily close basis I'm bullish
Us crude Oil ( WTIUSD) ANALYSIS 27 OCT 2020Hi Assalam-o-Alaikum , Dear GooD Afternoon Hope you are well and enjoing your trading , i'm here with my new analysis of WTIUSD
US Crude Oil (WTIUSD ) Current price is 3921.7
Current Resistence level is 3927.4
Current Support level is 3843.3
If Market Breaksout the Resistence level and Close on above this level we can enter in Buy Trade as Case 1 in Chart , Alternatively if Market Breaksout the Support level we can enter in sell here as case 2 in Chart
I hope my analysis will help you in your trading best of luck
share your point of view about WTIUSD in comments , Thanks