Wtioil
USOIL 2/MAY/2023It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve, which is responsible for managing the US's monetary policy, will raise interest rates again. This could potentially cause the US economy to slow down and enter a recession later this year.
In recent weeks, concerns about a banking crisis have affected the oil market. The US government took over First Republic Bank, and JPMorgan purchased most of its assets, causing alarm as three other US banks have previously collapsed: Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank. If more banks encounter difficulties, it may lead to a banking crisis that could cause a recession and a decrease in oil demand. Additionally, voluntary production cuts of about 1.16 million barrels per day by OPEC+ countries, including Russia, will take effect in May, impacting oil prices.
On a positive note, the US's manufacturing industry is improving, and with rising demand and employment, this has slightly boosted oil prices.
WTI OIL Channel Down extended selling to 72.50.Perfect execution of our plan last Monday for WTI Oil (USOIL) as the price initially rebounded to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), got rejected and hit our 74.00 target:
That is the top of the Pivot Zone that started back in mid-December. We are now expecting a (near) test of the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) as a Resistance to see if we'll get the rejection for bearish continuation as it happened on April 25. Our short-term target in this case is 72.50, the bottom of the Pivot Zone.
All this is part of course to our long-term trading plan:
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CRUDE OIL - SELL AND BUY SCENARIOSThe trend on the 1h time-frame is broken, but until the resistance (green line) is bearish because part of the GAP has not yet been completely closed and we can have a rise up to the resistance from which a rejection can follow and then a closing of the gap and barely then a climb with breaking resistance, so I would wait now to see what happens. But I'm looking to enter BUY
WTI OIL Filling the downside gap but short-term rebound.The WTI Oil (USOIL) got, as we expected, heavily rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), starting to fill the gap of March:
Our next target is 74.00, just above the Pivot Zone, but on the short-term, with the 4H RSI rebounding after getting oversold (has given a 100% buy signal short-term in the past 4 months), we expect a rise towards the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for rejection.
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WTI OIL Broke below the 4H MA50. Sell confirmed.WTI OIL (USOIL) broke yesterday below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today upon re-testing it as a Resistance, it is currently being rejected. This is a major sell signal as since December 2022 inside the Resistance Zone, every such break-out was a confirmed sell. All prior 5 cases hit the Support Zone shortly after. Even an oversold 4H RSI doesn't mean a bottom will be formed. As a result we are confident to keep our medium-term sells (opened last week after the price got rejected on the 1D MA200 (red trend-line)) and target 74.00.
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WTI OIL on a triple Resistance test! Get ready for a big move.WTI Oil (USOIL) has gone a long way since our buy call a month ago, that not only did it hit its target but smashed through the Jan Lower Highs and the 1D MA100:
The critical development of the week is that it hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since August 30 2022. Naturally that alone constitutes big news as along with the 83.35 High of December 01 and the top (Lower Highs trend-line) if the 8-month Channel Down, form a Triple Resistance Cluster.
In our opinion, as long as the price is inside the Channel Down, we have a huge long-term sell opportunity, with Target 1 being on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 76.50.
If on the other hand breaks above the Channel Down, we will hedge buy on the short-term and target the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) at 88.00, which is untouched since October 10.
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WTI falters around $70Oil prices fell to a 15-month low as investors fretted over the potential for a financial meltdown. Whilst that is yet to fully materialise (or if it does at all), investors remain a little on edge - with news of the latest Hindenburg report accusing Block (SQ) of fraudulent activity not likely to quell fears.
WTI has manged to lift itself from its 15-month lows, yet volumes declined over this period to suggest the move was corrective. A bearish Pinbar also formed, which not only failed to test the $72.46 breakout level but also closed back below $70 and the December low. Also note that a bullish hammer has formed on the US dollar index (DXY).
- We're now waiting for a break of Wednesday's low to assume bearish continuation, with target zones made up of Fibonacci expansions and round numbers residing around $65 and $60 in focus.
- The bias remains bearish below $72.46, although yesterday's high can also be used if a tighter approach to risk management is preferred.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Best Sell inside the 4 month Resistance ZoneWTI Crude Oil reached the R1 Zone following OPEC, while getting very close to the top of the multimonth Channel Down. The technicals on the 4H time frame got overbought but have dropped below the barrier since (RSI = 68.376, MACD = 20.40, ADX = 40.224) indicating the first signs of sell bias.
The Sell trigger perhaps can be given when the RSI crosses under the HL trend line. The previous crosses over the LH trend lines, were trend reversals. Also we just formed a 4H Golden Cross and for the past year, that formation has emerged near market peaks.
As a result we now turn bearish on WTI and target the 0.786 Fibonacci (TP = 69.00).
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WTI OIL Near a long-term ResistanceWTI Oil (USOIL) hit our medium-term target last week but following OPEC's cuts, it opened with a big gap up on Monday:
In order to more effectively understand the market dynamics after this move, it is best to view Oil on the 1W time-frame where we see all key characteristics of this move. First the rebound 2 weeks ago started after the price tested the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since February 01 2021. The price closed back above it and the rebound landed us to where we are now.
This is just shy off Resistance Zone 1, which is holding since November 2022. This calls for the most optimal sell opportunity on a quarterly basis, targeting again the 1W MA200 and the 2 year Support Zone at 63.00.
However with the 1W RSI on Higher Lows i.e. a Bullish Divergence against the candles' Lower Lows, we have to consider the probability of a potential bullish break-out. Since the 1W MA50 was a long-term Support turned into Resistance that hasn't allowed a 1W candle close above its since November 2022, we are willing to buy only if we close above it. The target on that occasion will be 93.00 (Resistance 2).
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USOUSD (Crude Oil) Daily: 02/04/2023: Bull or Bear?!
As you can see, after the downward movement, the price started correction around 64$.
Well now, the crude oil price is on an important level. It is daily resistance, the price is near 0.705 Fibo. level (Optimal trading level) and some other reason that can pull the price down.
On the other side, The momentum of this correction was high that it may cause the price to reach higher levels and then fall.
I must point out that the demand zone specified in the chart is strong and can temporarily keep the price above this range, and if not much selling power enters the market, the price may break the supply zone.
Overall, I see this chart as bearish and believe that the price will fall from here or from the supply zone.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️02/04/2023
🔎 DYOR
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WTI CRUDE OIL Target hit. Now prepare for the top.WTI Crude Oil hit the MA200 (4h) today for the first time since March 9th.
We got our target hit from buying at the bottom (chart in the end of analysis) and now we are switching to selling as the price is closer to the top of the 3-month Channel Down pattern.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price as the price completed a +16% rise, matching the strongest rally so far this year.
Targets:
1. 67.00 (Support 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is forming the very same peak pattern as all previous tops since December. Similar to the bottom formation when we started buying.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
WTI CRUDE OIL: One High left before new selling pressure.The WTI Crude Oil is being currently rejected on the 4H MA200 but with 4H technicals naturally bullish still (RSI = 61.154, MACD = 1.320, ADX = 61.771). This is due to the strong 9 day rally since the price made a bottom on the LL trendline of the Channel Down of December.
The 4H RSI also got rejected on the 70.000 overbought level and 5 times out of 6 within this Channel Down, this was an indication that we are either at the top or the last High before the top (LH trendline of the Channel Down). The last three tops were priced on the 1D MA100. We give slightly higher probabilities of this happening again. Sell this and TP = 67.00 (S1).
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Petrol Breakdown analysis 28/03/2023Dear traders petrol was up trend and strong trend so he rejected previous weekly candle so it may consolidate a bit I expect petrol is he reache the key level of resistance zone it may be down so wait for price action to react and take the opportunity
TRADE SAFE
WTI OIL Channel Up aiming at the 1D MA50.WTI Oil (USOIL) transitioned from the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern we described last week to a Channel Up:
Our target remains 74.50 on the medium-term which makes both a Higher High on the Channel Up while filling a 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is the technical target for the IH&S.
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WTI Crude Oil - Prospective positional short tradeWTI Crude Oil has completed a nice Head and Shoulders pattern breakdown in the weekly chart and has retested the breakdown zone. Currently cruising at around $67. It is comfortably placed below yearly pivot. Currently the developing yearly CPR is posing a big resistance which possibly could push the price lower. It has also gone down below the yearly virgin pivot and poised to move towards the next yearly virgin pivot at around $37 which is possibly my first target. The target based on head and shoulders pattern is around $23-$25 zone. A move above $82 will invalidated this view and will be out of my position.
WTI CRUDE OIL Pulling back to a Support. Buy the low.WTI Crude Oil is pulling back on a normal technical move after the Falling Resistance break out.
This will now be tested in the form of a Support.
Buy the Low as long as the RSI's Rising Support is intact.
Target 74.50, which is Fibonacci 0.618 and 4hour MA200.
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WTI OIL Inverse Head and Shoulders cementing the bottom.WTI Oil (USOIL) is forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern on the 4H time-frame, which is a technical bottom and bullish reversal formation. The 4H RSI is on a Higher Lows trend-line, indicating an uptrend and already above the 50.00 neutral mark. One last pull-back to the 65.70 Symmetrical Support is possible, before a strong rally targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Our target is 74.50.
This is an update to our last week analysis:
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WTI OIL Excellent long-term buy opportunity.WTI Oil (USOIL) got its 1D RSI oversold below 30.00 as the market made a new Low since December 09. The last two times the 1D RSI was that low was on the medium-term (Lower) Lows of December 09 and September 26. This is a strong buy signal as every time the Low was priced, it did so on a consecutive 1D Double Bottom candle, which just did today.
The Pivot Zone is the first level of Resistance, but since the Dec and Sep rebounds both hit the 1D MA50 on the way up, we will target that again, setting a medium-term target at 74.50.
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WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKWTI had fallen for 3 consecutive days in Wednesday. The bank crisis is calling banks to deleverage their positions, pulling back on their exposure on oil and causing the price to fall.
International Energy Agency (IEA) is also reporting that the current situation in the oil market is a situation of oversupply, while Russia is looking for buyers for its oil.
The price of WTI broke the support of the rising wedge pattern and continues to drop. Both MACD and RSI indicators are confirming the pattern as well.
If the current scenario continues, the price might reach levels of 62 or even 54.
In the opposite scenario the price might reach levels of 77.5 and pivot into an uptrend.
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petrol breakdown analysis dear traders petrol has aggressive down so i expect the price will correct this move
follow my advice and have a good trade
WTI CRUDE OIL: Buy inside the Triangle.WTI Crude Oil turned neutral on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 46.669, MACD = -0.040, ADX = 33.066) as it hit the bottom of the 3 month Triangle. This is a confirmed signal to go long (TP = 79.50) targeting the top of the Triangle.
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