WTI OIL Broke below the 4H MA50. Sell confirmed.WTI OIL (USOIL) broke yesterday below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today upon re-testing it as a Resistance, it is currently being rejected. This is a major sell signal as since December 2022 inside the Resistance Zone, every such break-out was a confirmed sell. All prior 5 cases hit the Support Zone shortly after. Even an oversold 4H RSI doesn't mean a bottom will be formed. As a result we are confident to keep our medium-term sells (opened last week after the price got rejected on the 1D MA200 (red trend-line)) and target 74.00.
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Wtioil
WTI OIL on a triple Resistance test! Get ready for a big move.WTI Oil (USOIL) has gone a long way since our buy call a month ago, that not only did it hit its target but smashed through the Jan Lower Highs and the 1D MA100:
The critical development of the week is that it hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since August 30 2022. Naturally that alone constitutes big news as along with the 83.35 High of December 01 and the top (Lower Highs trend-line) if the 8-month Channel Down, form a Triple Resistance Cluster.
In our opinion, as long as the price is inside the Channel Down, we have a huge long-term sell opportunity, with Target 1 being on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 76.50.
If on the other hand breaks above the Channel Down, we will hedge buy on the short-term and target the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) at 88.00, which is untouched since October 10.
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WTI falters around $70Oil prices fell to a 15-month low as investors fretted over the potential for a financial meltdown. Whilst that is yet to fully materialise (or if it does at all), investors remain a little on edge - with news of the latest Hindenburg report accusing Block (SQ) of fraudulent activity not likely to quell fears.
WTI has manged to lift itself from its 15-month lows, yet volumes declined over this period to suggest the move was corrective. A bearish Pinbar also formed, which not only failed to test the $72.46 breakout level but also closed back below $70 and the December low. Also note that a bullish hammer has formed on the US dollar index (DXY).
- We're now waiting for a break of Wednesday's low to assume bearish continuation, with target zones made up of Fibonacci expansions and round numbers residing around $65 and $60 in focus.
- The bias remains bearish below $72.46, although yesterday's high can also be used if a tighter approach to risk management is preferred.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Best Sell inside the 4 month Resistance ZoneWTI Crude Oil reached the R1 Zone following OPEC, while getting very close to the top of the multimonth Channel Down. The technicals on the 4H time frame got overbought but have dropped below the barrier since (RSI = 68.376, MACD = 20.40, ADX = 40.224) indicating the first signs of sell bias.
The Sell trigger perhaps can be given when the RSI crosses under the HL trend line. The previous crosses over the LH trend lines, were trend reversals. Also we just formed a 4H Golden Cross and for the past year, that formation has emerged near market peaks.
As a result we now turn bearish on WTI and target the 0.786 Fibonacci (TP = 69.00).
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WTI OIL Near a long-term ResistanceWTI Oil (USOIL) hit our medium-term target last week but following OPEC's cuts, it opened with a big gap up on Monday:
In order to more effectively understand the market dynamics after this move, it is best to view Oil on the 1W time-frame where we see all key characteristics of this move. First the rebound 2 weeks ago started after the price tested the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since February 01 2021. The price closed back above it and the rebound landed us to where we are now.
This is just shy off Resistance Zone 1, which is holding since November 2022. This calls for the most optimal sell opportunity on a quarterly basis, targeting again the 1W MA200 and the 2 year Support Zone at 63.00.
However with the 1W RSI on Higher Lows i.e. a Bullish Divergence against the candles' Lower Lows, we have to consider the probability of a potential bullish break-out. Since the 1W MA50 was a long-term Support turned into Resistance that hasn't allowed a 1W candle close above its since November 2022, we are willing to buy only if we close above it. The target on that occasion will be 93.00 (Resistance 2).
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USOUSD (Crude Oil) Daily: 02/04/2023: Bull or Bear?!
As you can see, after the downward movement, the price started correction around 64$.
Well now, the crude oil price is on an important level. It is daily resistance, the price is near 0.705 Fibo. level (Optimal trading level) and some other reason that can pull the price down.
On the other side, The momentum of this correction was high that it may cause the price to reach higher levels and then fall.
I must point out that the demand zone specified in the chart is strong and can temporarily keep the price above this range, and if not much selling power enters the market, the price may break the supply zone.
Overall, I see this chart as bearish and believe that the price will fall from here or from the supply zone.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️02/04/2023
🔎 DYOR
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WTI CRUDE OIL Target hit. Now prepare for the top.WTI Crude Oil hit the MA200 (4h) today for the first time since March 9th.
We got our target hit from buying at the bottom (chart in the end of analysis) and now we are switching to selling as the price is closer to the top of the 3-month Channel Down pattern.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price as the price completed a +16% rise, matching the strongest rally so far this year.
Targets:
1. 67.00 (Support 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is forming the very same peak pattern as all previous tops since December. Similar to the bottom formation when we started buying.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
WTI CRUDE OIL: One High left before new selling pressure.The WTI Crude Oil is being currently rejected on the 4H MA200 but with 4H technicals naturally bullish still (RSI = 61.154, MACD = 1.320, ADX = 61.771). This is due to the strong 9 day rally since the price made a bottom on the LL trendline of the Channel Down of December.
The 4H RSI also got rejected on the 70.000 overbought level and 5 times out of 6 within this Channel Down, this was an indication that we are either at the top or the last High before the top (LH trendline of the Channel Down). The last three tops were priced on the 1D MA100. We give slightly higher probabilities of this happening again. Sell this and TP = 67.00 (S1).
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WTI OIL Channel Up aiming at the 1D MA50.WTI Oil (USOIL) transitioned from the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern we described last week to a Channel Up:
Our target remains 74.50 on the medium-term which makes both a Higher High on the Channel Up while filling a 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is the technical target for the IH&S.
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WTI Crude Oil - Prospective positional short tradeWTI Crude Oil has completed a nice Head and Shoulders pattern breakdown in the weekly chart and has retested the breakdown zone. Currently cruising at around $67. It is comfortably placed below yearly pivot. Currently the developing yearly CPR is posing a big resistance which possibly could push the price lower. It has also gone down below the yearly virgin pivot and poised to move towards the next yearly virgin pivot at around $37 which is possibly my first target. The target based on head and shoulders pattern is around $23-$25 zone. A move above $82 will invalidated this view and will be out of my position.
WTI CRUDE OIL Pulling back to a Support. Buy the low.WTI Crude Oil is pulling back on a normal technical move after the Falling Resistance break out.
This will now be tested in the form of a Support.
Buy the Low as long as the RSI's Rising Support is intact.
Target 74.50, which is Fibonacci 0.618 and 4hour MA200.
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WTI OIL Inverse Head and Shoulders cementing the bottom.WTI Oil (USOIL) is forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern on the 4H time-frame, which is a technical bottom and bullish reversal formation. The 4H RSI is on a Higher Lows trend-line, indicating an uptrend and already above the 50.00 neutral mark. One last pull-back to the 65.70 Symmetrical Support is possible, before a strong rally targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Our target is 74.50.
This is an update to our last week analysis:
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WTI OIL Excellent long-term buy opportunity.WTI Oil (USOIL) got its 1D RSI oversold below 30.00 as the market made a new Low since December 09. The last two times the 1D RSI was that low was on the medium-term (Lower) Lows of December 09 and September 26. This is a strong buy signal as every time the Low was priced, it did so on a consecutive 1D Double Bottom candle, which just did today.
The Pivot Zone is the first level of Resistance, but since the Dec and Sep rebounds both hit the 1D MA50 on the way up, we will target that again, setting a medium-term target at 74.50.
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WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKWTI had fallen for 3 consecutive days in Wednesday. The bank crisis is calling banks to deleverage their positions, pulling back on their exposure on oil and causing the price to fall.
International Energy Agency (IEA) is also reporting that the current situation in the oil market is a situation of oversupply, while Russia is looking for buyers for its oil.
The price of WTI broke the support of the rising wedge pattern and continues to drop. Both MACD and RSI indicators are confirming the pattern as well.
If the current scenario continues, the price might reach levels of 62 or even 54.
In the opposite scenario the price might reach levels of 77.5 and pivot into an uptrend.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Buy inside the Triangle.WTI Crude Oil turned neutral on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 46.669, MACD = -0.040, ADX = 33.066) as it hit the bottom of the 3 month Triangle. This is a confirmed signal to go long (TP = 79.50) targeting the top of the Triangle.
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Short crude oil when reboundingBecause the market is vigilant about frequent and more substantial interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, concerns about the global recession have increased, and the global stock market has generally weakened, which has dragged down oil prices.
On the daily chart, oil prices continued to weaken in the short term, and fell back after the rebound in the previous trading day was blocked, suggesting strong selling pressure above.From the technical structure point of view, oil prices have still been in a wide fluctuation trend in recent months, and at the same time, they have also formed a short-term wedge-shaped consolidation trend to make a transitional market before the direction is chosen.The current support and strong support for oil prices are the 74.3 line on the wedge-shaped extension cord and the 72.3 line on the extension cord of the shock box below. The resistance above the short period is at the 76.5 line, and the stronger resistance is at the 77.6 line at the intersection of the short-period moving average and the Bollinger band.
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Will crude oil continue to rebound strongly? Long or short?In the crude oil market, due to the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and bullish expectations for Chinese demand, concerns that the Federal Reserve's more aggressive interest rate increases will slow economic growth and weaken oil consumption have limited the rebound in oil prices, so the crude oil market is still uncertain.
Judging from the trend, the current crude oil has rebounded strongly in the short term after fluctuating at a low level, but it is not enough to change the daily shorting situation, indicating that the overall trend of crude oil at a large level is still weak.Although the short-term rebound is shown on the 2-hour level chart, the short-term rebound is quite strong, but the pressure is heavy above, and the short-term continuity is a problem. It may continue slightly, but it is difficult to say how much room there is to continue without breaking the low range for the time being.Short-term may be accompanied by resistance loops, the market has returned to operate within the weak range.
In terms of strategy, yesterday's thinking was also high-level shorting, but today's thinking is still high-level, supplemented by low-level long-selling.
Crude oil is shorted near 77.8-78, and the first target is near 75.5
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WTI OIL Sell opportunity halfway through the bearish wave.WTI Oil (USOIL) is on a short-term bearish wave after getting rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line of January 23. As the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is about to form a Golden Cross with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), we are opening a new short-term sell targeting 74.50, right above the Higher Lows trend-line. As you see every 4H Golden Cross has been a respectable sell entry, all of which aimed ad the Higher Lows trend-line.
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USOIL WTI cautiously bullishWith the 4% drop on Tuesday, it appears that USOIL is likely to experience some moderate fluctuations over the next few trading sessions. While there are a number of factors that could impact price action, it seems that the market is currently in a relatively stable state despite the dump.
I would like to outline three potential scenarios:
USOIL could see some gains early today as the falling wedge looks set for reversal.
There may also be some resistance at $77.40, which could limit the extent of any upward movement. with a potential retest of $76.06
Watch out for a potential retest of previous low ($76.07) before finding upwards momentum.
Overall, and right now, I think it is difficult to predict exactly how USOIL will perform today and tomorrow but I'm cautiously bullish plus it's Friday!
Trade safely and don't take my word for it!
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Oil prices have stopped falling, and the bulls are back?Crude oil was suppressed by fundamentals and high pressure. Yesterday, the daily line fell all the way, and finally the daily line closed the negative line. Crude oil currently continues to maintain a wide range of oscillations on the daily line. The 4-hour level trend is also after a continuous decline. The current deviation rate is slightly too large, and the technical patterns on the small-cycle trend are also beginning to be gradually repaired, and there is a high probability that there will be some room for rebound and repair in the short-term trend.On the news side, short-term attention will be paid to Powell's further remarks and EIA data within the day.
Operationally, crude oil is recommended to be short at 78.3, below the target of 76.6.
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TVC:USOIL TVC:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD