WTI OIL Bullish break-out on the short-termThe WTI OIL (CL1! used on this analysis), broke today above the Internal Lower Highs trend-line that started on the last Lower High (August 30) of the long-term Channel Down pattern. By doing so, the price turned the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) into a Support and technically targets the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as it did on September 14.
At the same time, it invalidated a Bearish Cross on the 4H MACD. A similar pattern has been on August 22, when the price again broke aggressively above the 4H MA50 after having plunged below it. That leg also hit the 4H MA200. However, the rise may be less than expected if it replicates the August 10 break-out, which was contained on the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which is where we are at now. You may consider closing then if we close below the 4H MA50.
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Wtioil
USOIL 3rd OCTOBER 2022 - COMBINATION STRATEGYUSOIL Combination strategy with a Trendline, Unfilled Order (UFO) and Psychological level.
Trend is a movement that shows where the market is moving. The term "trend" in everyday life is often used to express a situation, where something is in vogue or is gaining public attention.
As you know, a trendline is a tool that can be used to recognize the direction of a trend. Therefore, a trendline can serve as both Support (in an uptrend) and Resistance (in a downtrend). Trend line, Its function as a technical tool does not need to be doubted. Besides being able to help identify trends, this tool can also be used to find entry points. In looking for entry points, you can use bounce and breakout opportunities. remember "the trend is your friend". Believe it or not, in forex trading, the trendline is one of the friends that can help you to follow the direction where the market is moving.
This trend movement forms a series of sequential waves with the following levels:
Peak (High/H),
Higher peak (Higher High / HH)
Lower peak (Lower High / LH )
Valley (Low/L)
higher valley (Higher Low / HL )
Lower valley (Lower Low / LL)
By knowing the support and resistance levels, a trader can minimize risks and maximize profits. During a downtrend, a trendline can serve as resistance. But conversely, during an uptrend, the trendline can function as support. In finance market, a psychological level, is a price level in technical analysis that significantly influences the price of the underlying security, commodity or derivative. Usually, the number is something "easy to remember," like a number that is rounded up.
Meanwhile, Unfilled order is a shipment of orders that have not been fulfilled and inventory reported by domestic manufacturing companies. historically it can be seen that the balance between buyers and sellers is broken due to high volatility.
for example in the case of US30 23rd AUGUST 2022
WTI SHORT TERM RECOVERYWTI recovered some of its loses yesterday after expectations of supply slow-down due to the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. But the continuous straightening of the US dollar and the expectations of continuing slow-down of Chinese economy might decrease the demand of crude oil. This will probably put further pressure on the crude oil price. Bearish traders might take advantage of this scenario by waiting a bit for WTI to reach more favorable levels and enter into positions.
Although technical indicators on the 1H graph show "Buy" signals, on the 4H and the daily graph the indicators are still bearish, with MACD histogram below 0 line and RSI below 50 neutral line. This might indicate that the recovery is temporary and the bearish move has not finished, but just slowed down.
If bearish trend continues the price might test levels of 72 USD, but if the trend makes a more permanent reverse, it might test its previous high at 86 USD.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
USOIL - Similarities between 2008 and nowLast week, our short-term price target of 80 USD was reached. Because of that, we would like to reiterate that we remain bearish on USOIL. In addition to that, we maintain our long-term price target of 70 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the similarity between the oil price pattern in 2008 and now.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI Oil- Will it drop under 70?In my previous Wti Oil analysis, I draw attention to the possibility of a double top formed above 120 with the neckline at the 92 zone.
Oil has dropped under this support and confirmed this zone as new resistance.
At this moment the price is also under 85 support and the road looks clear for continuation.
The next obvious level of support is around 65 and as long as 85 is intact sell rallies is my strategy.
CRUDE OIL WTI : BEARISH POSITIONS BELLOW 88.78BLACKBULL:WTI
Hello folks!!!,
This is my analysis brought to you after deeply analyzing the Curde Oil WTI from a technical, trend and fundamental perspective:
Pivot point : 88.78
Stop loss : 92.28
Take profit : 73.28
Entry Price : 86.40
Risk/Reward Ratio : 1 : 2.32
If this post was useful to you, do not forget to like and comment.❤️
Trade Safely,
Best Regards,
Yasser Tavarez
USOil | New perspective for the weekOn a weekly basis, we have witnessed how the price of oil fell for a fourth straight week to incite a risk of a further decline in price action in the coming week. However, I won't be jumping to conclusions considering the current structure as we need to look out for significant signals that will guide our actions during the new week.
withRisk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
WTI DWINDLES BETWEEN HIGH RATES AND THIGHT SUPPLYWTI remains indecisive. On one hand traders are suspecting continuous increase of the interest rates, after Fed decision in Wednesday. On the other hand, the further escalation by Russia of the war in Ukraine and the thread by the Nigerian oil minister Timipre Marlin Sylva that OPEC+ will decrease production if prices keep falling, are creating fear of tightened supply.
All technical indicators are suggesting downtrend for WTI price, with MACD histogram being below the 0 line and RSI being below the neutral 50 line.
If price keeps falling, it might test its most recent low at 80.9, but if the trend reverses, it might test its resistance at 89.7 or even the one at 97.2
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
WTI OIL at a critical make or break pointThe WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a structured Channel Down pattern since the March 08 market High, following the immense growth after the COVID 2020 demand crisis. We have covered the Higher Lows zones since the November 02 2020 Low (green circle) and the March 23 2021 Low (blue circle) extensively over the past months on the higher time-frames, which is where Oil is trading at the moment.
Basically the price is at the bottom of both the Channel Down and the Higher Lows zone since Nov 02 2020 2021. The bearish sentiment got stronger when the price got rejected exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on August 30 and turned even worse on September 02 when the 1D MA50 crossed below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to form the bearish pattern of the Death Cross. This is the first time we see this formation since February 25 2020!!
This was a huge bearish sign at the past as it preceded the COVID crash. As long as the Nov 2020 Higher Lows Zone (dotted lines) hold, the Death Cross effect may be postponed for the short-term but only if the 1D MA50 breaks. A first sign towards that bullish break-out may be the Bullish Divergence on the 8H MACD, which is on Higher Lows while Oil has been on Lower Lows since June 22. Also the 8H MACD resembles the July 09 - August 19 2021 fractal, which rebounded on the March 23 2021 zone. Technically the Channel Down should make a new Lower High within 105.00 - 110.00.
A break below the Channel Down though, should finally test the March 23 2021 Higher Lows zone (dashed lines) and at this point under the current fundamentals seems like the most likely scenario. Even if we do get that rebound on the short-term, it would be much safer to be positioned systematically with sells on the rallies, as the Death Cross indicates that the long-term trend is gradually turning bearish .
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OIL target reached. UPDATEOIL showed one more bos, and now we have a new price expansion to the downside. Please check the linked ideas for better context.
📉 Text marks:
🔹 IL = impulse leg. Inside of IL we can usually see inside structure, which is secondary in nature, like a market noise, unless you trade it on LTF, as it’s own IL.
🔹 ph, pl = protected high or low, which holds current structural impulse.
🔹 bos = break of structure . Based on candle body close below/above previous structural impulse.
🔹 rsz, rdz = refined supply and demand zones. Specific areas to look for LTF confirmations. They are manipulative up-moves before real down moves, or vice versa. Strong hands (the Composite Man, as Wyckoff called it) often come back to such zones to close their manipulative orders at breakeven, before pushing prices further.
🔹 if confirmed = entry only if there's a shift of structure on lower TF inside of rsz or rdz, or any other type of backtested and approved confirmation.
🔹 liq target = liquidity target: next profit taking levels for strong hands, our main targets based on current price action.
☝️Disclaimer: ALL ideas here are for EDUCATIONAL and MARKETING purposes only, not financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. I share my view on the market and search for like-minded traders. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as trading in a simulated environment.
👉I believe that "right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw of any beginner. In reality, a trader is right only when he executes the system and follows his rules, and he's wrong only when he's taking random setups. A trader should find a system he's willing to work with long-term, hindsight test, backtest and then execute live, then refine until perfection.
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USOIL 5th SEPTEMBER 2022The standoff over Russia's gas and oil exports escalated on Friday after Moscow promised to close its main gas supply pipeline to Germany and G7 countries announced plans for price caps on Russian oil exports aimed at squeezing Russia's war chest in Ukraine. This latest closure of the Nord Stream pipeline, which Russia says will last as long as it takes to make repairs, adds to concerns over winter gas shortages that could pull major economies into recession and lead to energy rationing. Europe accuses Russia of weaponizing energy supplies in what Moscow calls an "economic war" with the West following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Moscow blames Western sanctions and technical problems for supply disruptions.
USOIL 8th SEPTEMBER 2022Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday (September 7th), slipping below levels seen before Russia's invasion of Ukraine as dismal Chinese trade data and growing fears of a global economic recession hurt fuel demand.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil futures for October delivery plunged US$4.94 or 5.7 percent.
With lower prices this time it is a good opportunity to supply companies that are optimistic about surviving the recession and tightening monetary policy.
This week, OPEC+ is scheduled to discuss oil production cuts as part of their future strategy.
OPEC+ revised the market balance this year and expects demand to lag supply by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to the previous estimate of 900,000 bpd.
However, the group of major oil producers expects the oil market to be in deficit by 300,000 bpd by 2023.
WTI OIL 1st Death Cross since February 2020! Huge sell ahead??The WTI Crude Oil ( USOIL ) has been trading within a structured Channel Down pattern since the March 08 market High, following the immense growth after the COVID 2020 demand crisis. We have covered the Higher Lows zones since the November 02 2020 Low (green circle) and the March 23 2021 Low (blue circle) extensively over the past months on the higher time-frames, which is where Oil is trading at the moment.
Basically the price is at the bottom of both the Channel Down and the Higher Lows zone since Nov 02 2020 2021. The bearish sentiment got stronger when the price got rejected exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on August 30 and turned even worse on September 02 when the 1D MA50 crossed below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to form the bearish pattern of the Death Cross. This is the first time we see this formation since February 25 2020!!
This was a huge bearish sign at the past as it preceded the COVID crash. With the Nov 2020 Higher Lows Zone (dotted lines) holding for now, the Death Cross effect may be postponed for the short-term but only if the 1D MA50 breaks, since we have the 1D RSI forming the same bullish break-out pattern as with April 2022, which was the Lower Low formation within the Channel Down that initiated the rebound to the Lower Highs trend-line. A Bullish Divergence can be also seen on the 8H MACD with it being on Higher Lows while Oil has been on Lower Lows since June 22. However it is about to break lower, which will invalidate all the above.
Technically the Channel Down should make a new Lower High within 110.00 - 115.00. A break below it though, should finally test the March 23 2021 Higher Lows zone (dashed lines). Even if we do get that rebound on the short-term, it would be much safer to be positioned systematically with sells on the rallies, as the Death Cross indicates that the long-term trend is gradually turning bearish.
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WTI oil - An indecisive moment in the oil marketWe warned about the possibility of a downtrend correction in the middle of August 2022. Indeed, we said that the breakout above the sloping support/resistance would lead to such action. Then shortly after that, USOIL rose from its lows and broke above the resistance, halting its rise at 97.65 USD per barrel.
Since then, the price fell back below the 90 USD price tag. However, the drop stopped slightly above the sloping support, which is bullish. Accordingly, we are bullish on oil for as long as the price stays above the support. However, an alternative position can be taken (with a tight stop-loss) on the breakout below the support.
In the short-term future, we will pay close attention to OPEC's rhetoric and any potential talks about more production cuts. In our opinion, cutting production risks higher prices for oil in the short term. Although with the prospect of global recession unraveling, we think production cuts will only have a temporary effect if any.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL. Yellow arrows indicate a bullish breakout above the sloping support/resistance and subsequent failure of the price to retrace below it. As long as the price stays above the sloping support/resistance, it stays in the bullish area.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and MACD are neutral. Stochastic is bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages, which still reflect a bearish constellation.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is neutral. Stochastic and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI Crude Oil OPEC+ Token Supply CutOPEC+ unexpectedly decided to cut output in October by 100,000 barrels a day.
Emily Ashford (Standard Chartered analyst): “Last month’s adjustment provided a nod to the demands of the consumers, this monthly adjustment is a small nod to the concerns of the producers,”
Deepening energy crisis in Europe after Russian energy giant Gazprom PJSC said gas flows along a key pipeline to Germany would not resume.
In this economic context my short term price target for WTI Crude Oil is $99.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
WTI: Screeeeeech!Can you hear WTI’s brakes screeching from the chart? Well, we definitely can! Quite vehemently, WTI has hit the brakes just short of the bottom of the blue zone between $91.70 and $87.08 – and rightly so! There isn’t all that much room left to finish wave b in blue! In fact, WTI should complete it no later than the support at $85.73. Then, it should turn around and climb upwards, gradually crossing the resistances at $101.88 and at $105.24 to enter the turquoise zone between $107.12 and $119.94. There, it should finish wave b in turquoise, before moving downwards again. However, there is a 32% chance that WTI could drop below the support at $85.73, which would then trigger further descent.
WTI oil - Change in a rhetoric of the OPECIn our last idea on oil, we outlined a scenario for a downtrend correction if the breakout above the sloping resistance took place. A few days later, the breakout occurred, and technical indicators turned bullish. Additionally, a slight change in the rhetoric of OPEC came, with Saudi Arabia and other members hinting at looming production cuts. This development forces us to abandon our price targets because of OPEC's ability to maintain a floor or a lid on oil prices. We will update our thoughts as we get more information concerning the cartel's production. Until then, we abstain from setting price targets for USOIL.
Illustration 1.01
The chart above shows the bullish breakout above the prior resistance.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is bullish. The same applies to Stochastic and MACD. However, MACD stays below 0 points; if it breaks above, it will be bullish. DM+ and DM- performed bullish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI strives to reverse to the upside; the same applies to Stochastic and MACD. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral/slightly bullish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SELL [OIL]OIL Setup / Analysis
🕐 4hr's Chart
Key Technical / Reason's SHORT
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What is our confirmation?
- Breakout trendline and retest
- Resistance Support level
- Pressure zone
- Pivot and MA rejection confluence
- Ascending Pattern
- Descending Pattern
- The pivot zone
- Demand Supply
- Candlestick Patterns