WTI OIL Bullish divergence could give one last pumpThe WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a structured Channel Down pattern since the March 08 market High, following the immense growth after the COVID 2020 demand crisis. We have covered the Higher Lows zones since the November 02 2020 Low (green circle) and the March 23 2021 Low (blue circle) extensively over the past months on the higher time-frames, but this time we will focus on the Bullish Divergences forming on the lower time-frames (t-f).
The chart is on the 1D t-f, as well as the RSI with the MACD on the 8H t-f. As you see, the price is currently testing the August 11 High, which is its short-term Resistance and happens to be also on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which rejected Oil on that particular High. A break above it would be on its own a strong bullish break-out signal on the short-term.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is just above the MA200. On the flipside this means that it will form a Death Cross pattern, which is technically a bearish formation, for the first time since the Feb 25 2020 Death Cross, which preceded the COVID crash. With the Nov 2020 Higher Lows Zone (dotted lines) though right below, the Death Cross effect may be postponed for the short-term. Especially by having the 1D RSI forming the same bullish break-out pattern as with April 2022, which was the Lower Low formation that initiated the rebound to the Lower Highs trend-line of the Channel Down. The Bullish Divergence is more evident on the 8H MACD with them being on Higher Lows while Oil has been on Lower Lows since June 22.
Technically the Channel Down should make a new Lower High within 110.00 - 115.00. A break below it though, should finally test the March 23 2021 Higher Lows zone (dashed lines).
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Wtioil
USOIL 23rd AUGUST 2022Oil prices briefly surged in mid-trade due to a push to raise the Fed's benchmark interest rate. However, prices eased back after investors believed that the US central bank's policy this month was to maintain interest rates.
Another factor, the US dollar strengthened again to its highest level in five weeks, which limited the increase in crude oil prices. This is because oil becomes more expensive for buyers with non-US dollar currencies.
US Dollar Index
Oil prices will not be too bearish, this is due to the prospect of higher demand entering the winter season.
WTI OIL 3rd week below the 1W MA50. Critical Support below.The WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) opened the week yesterday on the 3rd straight 1W candle below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Last time that such streak took place was in early November 2020! It is therefore easy to understand that if this level is not recovered, Oil may enter a new Bear Cycle. On the short-term we ideally want to see a candle closing above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), in order to trigger a buy signal, targeting the Lower Highs of the March Top.
Until then, the short-term price action calls for further selling towards the November 2020 Higher Lows trend-line. A closing below should be enough to trigger a bearish extension to the March 2021 Higher Lows. The 1W RSI has been trading within a Channel Down since March 2021 and is close to its bottom. That is an indicator showing that if it starts reversing, we may see a rebound (at least on the medium-term) on the November 2020 Higher Lows. We will follow with many updates until then.
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WTI OIL Rejection on the 1D MA200.The WTI CRUDE OIL (USOIL) is trading within a Channel Down since June 29, following quite closely the outlook we presented 1 month ago, as it hit the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) target:
As you see, it has been below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) all this time and the longer it does, the more likely it is to print a Lower Low within the Channel Down on the dotted long-term Higher Lows trend-line around 82.00. This is further enhanced by today's rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). If however it breaks above the 1D MA50, look for a reversal towards the Lower Highs of March 08.
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Crude Oil. Its dynamic/ Astro cycle. 11/ August/22 “Crude” Oil. The “mother/father” of “all” inflations probably on its last “leg up” soon @ around 87.98 toward around 118..So..So..All stocks/equities market will probably “end” its crashes ONLY around last quarter of 2022. P/S Crude Oil movement is “governed” by planet Saturn and Neptune. The Purple 7, 8 ( dynamic cycle ) are based on “cycle” counts with “statistics “...
WTI oil - Oil to head lower in 2022/2023For some time now, we have been providing relatively accurate price targets for the WTI crude oil. Last year, we navigated the oil bull market from 60 USD per barrel up to 100 USD a year later. Then, in April 2022, we called the peak in the oil market and laid out a few reasons why the oil market could temporarily bounce, but it would continue lower despite that. In addition to that, we said the oil price would drift back toward the 100 USD price tag over the medium/long term.
Recently, USOIL reached our price target of 100 USD and 95 USD. Then today, it paused a decline just 0.17 USD above our short-term price target of 90 USD. Despite that, we remain bearish on crude oil and maintain our price target of 90 USD and our long-term price target of 80 USD per barrel.
There are several fundamental and technical reasons behind our stance. First, fundamental reasons such as higher interest rates and economic tightening will inadvertently slow down the global economy. Indeed, several indicators flash warning signs of a recession in progress. Ultimately, that means lower demand for oil in the medium/long term, especially from China.
Furthermore, the OPEC's supply increase of another 100 000 barrels per day in September 2022 will weigh on the weakening demand for oil. That, combined with reportedly high stockpiles of crude by the EIA, will lower the oil price in the foreseeable future. The same applies to the recent actions by western countries in regard to loosening sanctions on Russian oil.
Illustration 1.01
The price of oil continues to move within the downward sloping channel.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
WTI oil futures on the weekly chart confirm our assessment of the declining demand for oil, which is reflected in the declining volume since the peak price.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.03
The daily chart of WTI oil futures shows the increase in selling pressure, which is particularly bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI: Doooown…After one last surge, WTI has jumped below the support line at $92.93, its shout echoing through the chart. Now that it has begun the descent, it should continue it into the blue zone between $81.16 and $77.55, where it should finish wave 3 in blue.
Alternatively, there is a 35% chance that WTI could gain upwards momentum again and could make it not only back above $92.93 but also above the resistance at $101.88. In this case, it should pursue the ascent above $105.24 and into the turquoise zone between $107.12 and $116.59 first before moving downwards.
WTI OIL heavily bearish eyeing a level untouched since Dec 2021!WTI CRUDE OIL (USOIL) eventually followed the rough projection we made three weeks ago and made a Lower Low as it failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again:
This has created a new Channel Down on the medium-term, which after closing below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it is now eyeing the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) for the first time since December 02 2021! As we outlined in our previous analysis though, the downtrend is unlikely to stop there and most likely will hit the November 2020 Higher Lows trend-line around 82.00 - 83.00 before giving a relief (at least) rally.
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WTI Cude (OIL) POSSIBLE TO BUY ......
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OIL showing that inflation has peaked.Another inflation (red trend-line) cross study, this time against the WTI Oil (USOIL). It is evident that the correlation between the two is very tight and every time the Oil market started forming a top pattern (circles), the Inflation Rate followed it lower shortly.
I will not get into much detail as the chart is pretty self-explanatory. Oil has been on Lower Highs and Lower Lows since the March "war" peak, which is a bearish formation and if it wasn't for that "war" peak, the pattern would have been a Head and Shoulders, which is also a peak formation. With the 1M RSI back below the 70.00 overbought level after breaking above it for the first time since April 2011 and the only the 5th since 2000, it is more likely to have a market top on Oil. As a result, if a correction starts then Inflation which is still on Higher Highs lagging behind, is more likely to peak as well and finally correct back to sustainable levels in the coming months.
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WTI OIL testing the top of its 1 month Channel Down.WTI Oil (USOIL) broke today above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again after a three day stay below it and is approaching the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down it started after the June 14 High. On 4H RSI terms as well, it looks like the V-shaped Lower Highs test of June 29 - July 05 that ultimately led to a sharp sell-off towards the bottom of the Channel. As a result our strategy is to take this favorable R/R sell trade as long as the top of the Channel holds and target the Support (also the 1W MA50 (green trend-line)) at 91.00 and if we get a 1D candle closing below it, then target the multi-year Higher Lows trend-line (dotted line) at 80.00.
This pattern is invalidated if the price breaks above the Channel Down and a buy signal will be waiting above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), targeting the March 2022 (war) Lower Highs trend-line at 120.00.
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WTI oil - Oil continues to drift lowerOver the past four months, we repeated that oil prices were peaking and the downside was looming over the oil market. Despite the excess of bullish calls forecasting new ATH for oil prices, we stuck to our bearish bias. Indeed, a few months ago, we set price targets of 100 USD, 95 USD, and 90 USD for USOIL. After hitting the first two price targets, we still remain bearish and maintain a price target of 90 USD for WTI oil. Our views are based upon technical and fundamental factors.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL. Two moving averages, 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA, reflect the downtrend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The weekly chart of USOIL shows 20-week SMA and 50-week SMA. The 20-week SMA appears to be reversing to the downside, which is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI Cude (OIL) POSSIBLE TO BUY ......
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair,
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the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be
satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watch list and see if
the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
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Is #USO Breaking Out?Is #USO Breaking Out?
# Crude #oil extended last weeks Friday’s positive close in trading on Monday as U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia failed to deliver anything concrete. The trip was aimed at coaxing the Saudi’s to increase oil production thus easing inflation pressures. The response from the Saudi’s and other key officials reiterated the fact that production scheduling and/or increases remain with the OPEC+ consortium leaving President Biden without a deal.
Sorry #JoeBiden
India tricks the West, Strong dollar & China imports russian oilOil top might be in for this year.
Reasons:
1. Market adjustment mechanisms are underway on the commodity markets, ensuring that Russian oil, which is spurned by the West, once again finds its buyers (india, china). This in turn causes these countries to demand less Brent or WTI oil, which again depresses prices. India and China are buying significantly more crude oil from Russia, Europe less, which means there is a balancing out taking place on the world markets with the new tanker routes and transportation routes.
2. India recently bought more oil from Russia than ever before, according to a recent report by the Finnish Energy and Clean Air Research Center. "A significant portion of the crude is re-exported as refined oil products, including to the U.S. and Europe, an important loophole to close," the Finnish analysts warned. Since new sanctions measures are very unlikely, the alignment process between Russian oil and Brent and WTI crudes is likely to continue.
3. Dollar price, interest hikes & recession fears by FED. The strong dollar is also acting as an additional burden on the oil market. This is because commodities such as oil are traded in dollars. If you read between the lines of the FED, they're doing their best to crush commodity and oil prices to crush long-speculators on comm and oil.
4. Fear of new lockdowns in China. Chinese head of state Xi Jinping nevertheless only recently announced that he would stick to the strict zero-covid strategy. This is fueling fears of new lockdowns in China = downside risk for oil demand in China, probably a small impact, since the gov in China is trying its best to avoid a greater corona outbreak in large cities to stabilise eco. situation.
5. bitcoin/tradional markets are sometimes seen as counterparts to oil. Bitcoin, despite very bad news (CPI increased) and being a risk asset, has not moved much further down in price, showing that risky assets have more or less found their bottom while oil bulls have an empty tank.
Opinion: I see the price cooling down slowly rather than continuing to climb, probably going towards 70-60$ in the next 6-10 months.
! This is not an investment advise! Do your own research! This is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell oil shares and this is NOT a recommendation to short or to long oil!
WTI OIL hit its 1D MA200 first time in 2022! Bottom can be lowerWTI Crude Oil (USOIL) touched today the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 2022, more specifically since December 21 2021! This strong selling on the market has come after successive Lower Highs since June 14 and a rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Since the March 08 market High, this may look as the start of a multi-year Bear Cycle but the fall isn't that dramatic yet, as excluding the June 14 High, the market has been ranging sideways (high volatility nonetheless) within a Rectangle pattern since the March drop. This is a make or break moment for the pattern. A break below the Support and naturally the 1D MA200, should seek the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) which priced the markets last Low on December 02 2021, before the mega rally started. A rebound on the Support should test the 1D MA50 on the short-term at least as a Resistance.
The most important indicator on this chart though is the RSI, which is displayed on the 1W time-frame. As you see, there is a Channel Down pattern involved, which (with the exception of the March war extreme) has price all of WTI's Highs and Lows since the March 08 2021 High! The best long-term buy on the market can be taken exactly on the Channel's Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line, whether that's on the 1D MA300 or one of the lower Higher Lows trend-lines involved.
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WTI still in a MAJOR bull trendSince the April 2020 low WTI has been steadily shooting towards the 2008 highs and remains in a very strong bullish trend.
When we have technical and fundamental analysis supporting a direction I would count that the best type of trades we could be in.
Of course I am a day trader and looking at this weekly chart does little good for me, but volatility on the other hand helps me make abnormal profits and what I seek to find is volatility and which assets could it affect.
Point here is that if WTI continues to hold this uptrend it will form a higher low and knowing that higher low I can positon myself to ride wider profits on long positions and even increase my size, while also when WTI eventually finds a top the correction down will be quick and aggressive, hence knowing both the technical and fundamental information of a given asset is vital to my success as a day trader!
The technical analysis here is clear... we are in an uptrend because we are forming higher highs and higher lows... basic! but!! There are fundamental drivers too!
The most recent move in oil futures curves reflects the divergent forces currently driving the global commodity markets. From the recent fundamental standpoint, the weak June Flash PMIs weighed especially on the longer-end of the oil curve, as rising recession risks and tightening financial conditions weaken the demand outlook. At the same time, the world continues to struggle with tight oil supply amid the war in Ukraine and very limited spare capacity and things are only getting worse!
OPEC can't seem to save WTI from heading higher either, because OPEC+ announced faster planned production hikes for July and August, yet it failed to meet its target in May as production declined from the previous month so it will be very very very interesting to see what happens with their promise for July (coming up pretty soon!)
Based on my experience... the OPEC+ supply for July could possibly form the higher low of this uptrend, but only time will tell!
In any case, trading WTI is very lucrative for me right now as I thrive on volatility and absolutely love it!