WTI oil - The end of oil bull marketIn early April 2022, we said the oil bull market peaked. Then, a bit later, we stated that if the Russian crude oil was to be banned in the EU, we would see another bounce in price and possibly a new top. Despite that, we set a long-term price target for USOIL at 90 USD; we still hold this price target as we continue to be bearish on oil. In addition to that, we would like to set a short-term price target for USOIL at 100 USD and a medium-term price target at 95 USD.
Fundamental factors
The FED is decided to pursue the destruction of demand, which will negatively impact the oil price as the stock market is poised to crash further down. Additionally, supply increases by the OPEC members threaten the high value of oil.
Illustration 1.01
The WTI crude oil is down over 20% from its peak and within the technical bear market.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. The ADX increases, which signals that the bearish trend is gaining momentum. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are due to perform a bearish crossover. The ADX suggests that the bull trend has ended. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Wtioil
WTI oil - 100 USD in sight Over the past two months, we expressed our belief that the oil bull market was peaking. Indeed, we previously set a short-term price target for USOIL at 100 USD, medium-term at 95 USD, and long-term at 90 USD. Despite wild price swings up and down, we stayed bearish, and we continue to maintain this stance also today. Therefore, we have no reason to change our price targets.
Illustration 1.01
The picture shows bearish breakouts below the trendline.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The illustration portrays the daily chart of USOIL. First, the price can be seen dropping below the 20-day SMA, which is bearish. Then, after a new low, the retracement toward 20-day SMA acted as a downtrend correction. Currently, we will watch out for a bearish crossover between 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic turned bearish. MACD also turned bearish, but it still stays in the bullish territory. DM+ and DM- remain bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is turning bearish from bullish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Crude Oil Update Hi Trades,
Crude Oil is on the move today with the price plummeting almost 10% today at the time of this post. We have seen the bearish momentum take out support that has been created and it keeps pushing to the downside. Price is currently trading at around $101 a Barrel and I would like to see the price remain and close below $106 in order for me to be interested in Shorting opportunities on the commodity.
Looking at some technicals, we see that price has created a Double Top which ties in a lower high as well. The current daily candle, if it closes as is, will be a bearish engulfing candle and will give me more confidence in the setup. All that awaits now is for price to close and then start pulling back in a more corrective (Slow) manner in order for us to find shorts to the downside.
My style of trade is always Reactive and never Predictive.
Renaldo Philander
WTICOUSD (RESISTANCE ZONE)Hey guys!
How are you guys doing! O hope from the previous analysis, the daily fake out from DAILY timeframe got you guys a confirmation and brought toward more downside.
What I'm seeing now is that it shall go back and test 110.70 zone and probably bring more downside to 105, 103 and possibly to 95 range.
However, shall it
break the resistance zone with a strong candle, it will be bring us to a greater height.
As oil is a very volatile commodity and can easily go up/down a few dollars so do trade with minimal risk and not overtrade!
let me know how you guys think!
WTI OIL targeting 123.00WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is on a 4 day green 1D candle streak, the longest it has been in a month and is trading above above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As you see the pattern has been a Channel Up since the March 25 High as the market is attempting to recover the War high (129.50) of March 08. This time the price hasn't just rebounded on the bottom of the Channel Up but also on the longer-term Higher Lows trend-line that started after the December 02 2021 Low.
A break below should target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but until then we should continue buying towards the top of the Channel. A weekly closing above the 129.50 Resistance should be a long-term extension to the -0.236 Fibonacci extension at 145.00.
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WTI Cude (OIL) SELL TRADE IDEA
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair,
let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions,
the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be
satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watch list and see if
the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
Dear Traders,
If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
PLZ! LIKE COMMAND AND SUBSCRIBE.
WTI Crude Oil Short Setup on Daily Time FrameWe can see the price breaks below a major trend line after finding a resistance.
We can wait for a pullback and see if it will go above the trendline. If trendline became a resistance, it is safe to say we have a short opportunity to short if goes below the latest low on the daily timeframe.
The DMI also looks good and trending upward going above 25 level. If the -DI remains above the ADX, it will be a strong indicator to short.
Outlook on WTI Crude Oil: Bearish play seenOn the weekly time frame, prices are holding below a key area at 127.80 where we could see further downside below this area. On the H4 time frame, we are seeing a shift in order flow with the break of the recent low at 112.50. A pullback to the resistance area at 114.80, in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension presents an opportunity to play the drop to our next support target at 103.80. This demand area lines up with the ascending trend line, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 1.272% Fibonacci extension. Ichimoku cloud is showing signs of bearish pressure as well, with prices holding below the Ichimoku cloud.
USOIL 20th JUNE 2022Before July, USOIL was seen moving in the consolidation channel area which tends to be bullish . in July, USOIL sentiment will tend to be bearish .
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member states announced plans to adjust oil production upward in July by 0.648 million barrels per day.
In my view Oil prices are bearish but still not stable. Moderate bearish confirmation has not occurred, because the price has not yet breakout below the support area.
So I will place a buy limit near the support area, with the target not exceeding the weekly resistance which is drawn in the red area.
stop loss as well as sellstop below the support area.
WTI may retest reversal zoneCrude Oil WTI price went bearish this few days.
Hourly timeframe still with some bullish momentum towards the reversal zone and trendline.
Will see if the bear can came in or the bulls will win at these significant levels.
There might be a short opportunity in H1 timeframe.
TVC:USOIL
WTI OIL Correction not over yet.WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is on a strong 3 day correction. Its long-term trend since the December 02 2021 Low is better illustrated if we apply the Fibonacci Channel starting on that Low. As you see the extensions have worked very well in projecting Higher Highs.
Right now the pull-back doesn't seem to be over. Either a bounce of the 1D RSI on its Buy Zone is needed or a hit on the price's Internal Higher Lows trend-line. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) happens to be exactly there, which is a trend-line untouched since December 27 2021. A rebound there can target the 1.5 Fibonacci extension again. On the other hand, a closing below the 0.0 Fib level can see Oil test the -0.5 extension for the first time, with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supporting just below.
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WTI: Nearly There!WTI has nearly finished wave B in green in the upper third of the green zone between $111.72 and $126.25 or wave c in pink in the upper half of the pink zone between $122.81 and $126.17, respectively. As soon as it has accomplished this, WTI should turn downwards and head for the support at $102.66. After it has completed wave (A) in white below this mark, a countermovement should set WTI back above $102.66 before it can resume the descent. However, there is a 42% chance that WTI could continue to rise and climb above the resistance at $130.50, which would then lead to further ascent.
WTI OIL heading to $160 long-termThis is not a new chart I'm sharing with you on WTI Crude Oil today, I've initially posted it 2 months ago, calling for a medium-term consolidation and then bullish break-out when the Resistance breaks, based on the striking similarities with the September 2020 - March 2021 pattern:
It is time to update my thesis, as the Resistance broke and the similarities continue to be striking both in candle and RSI terms. The analysis is on the 1W time-frame, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) standing out.
On the May 31 2021 1W candle, when the price broke and closed the week above the prior High/ Resistance, Oil eventually reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. Currently that Fib level is at 159.00. With the 1W RSI well above its MA, it appears that WTI has enough momentum to break its prior High/ Resistance by July. This is a long-term thesis. I will be making updates on the 1D time-frame for shorter term trades.
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WTI oil - The uptrend in oil continues to peakExactly one month ago, we stated that the Russian oil ban would lead to an uptick in oil prices. Since then, the European Union has started to take measures concerning its oil dependence on Russia. Meanwhile, WTI oil has risen from 106 USD up to 114 USD, where it trades currently. Despite being bullish in the short-term and medium-term, we also stated (in our previous posts) that we expected the bull market in oil to peak; in addition to that, we set and maintained our long-term price target for USOIL at 90 USD. That also applies today, and we still keep this target.
Fundamental factors
Our bearish view is based upon several fundamental factors. Among these is the prospect of higher output by the OPEC in the second half of 2022 and the global need for lower oil prices. We expect the U.S. to put pressure on OPEC; there is already a rumor Joe Biden is supposed to ask Saudi Arabia to lower its output. Another fact we consider is that despite the Russian oil ban, new highs were not reached by USOIL.
Illustration 1.01
USOIL appears in the downward sloping channel. The breakout above it will suggest more bulishness in the short term. The channel is
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to MACD; however, it remains in the bullish territory. DM+ and DM- are also bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish; however, certain technical and fundamental developments raise caution.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows simple support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- remain bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.