WTI OIL 1 month of scalping with 12 successful tradesAs mentioned on my last two ideas (April 19 and May 02), WTI Oil has been neutral on the medium-term where scalping was favored:
Today's analysis is on the 4H time-frame where you can see the range more clearly (Resistance at 116.60 and Support at 93.00). On this post I present the golden combination that offered 100% profitable results during this 1 month of scalping. The 4H MA100 (green trend-line) can be used as the Pivot Line. I've also plotted the Bollinger Bands (blue range).
As you see, every time the 4H RSI touched either its Resistance (sell signal) or Support Zone (buy signal), it bounced towards at least the 4H MA100 and in most cases even the top/ bottom of the Bollinger Bands before the next signal emerged.
So far this approach has given 100% success rate with 12/12 correct signals. We will continue scalping this until either the Resistance or Support level breaks.
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Wtioil
United States Oil FundNo clue how I found this chart, however, with looming concerns on various market, political and world disaster fronts - commodities, specifically OIL has been a major topic.
I still have to do some research on what this fund actually represents, however, I know for a fact it is at a key price point technically.
TECHNICALS
Widening downward cone
At diagonal + horizontal resistance
Fundamental factors could flip this level into support
RED trendline is a long term TL that has served as a sort of mean reversion point since the beginning of this fund.
With price now on the right side of this line, this could be bullish when paired with everything else.
BELOW: Long term charts on the WEEKLY and MONTHLY timeframes.
Also something that should be noted - This security is also listed on FTX as a synthetic stock token.
Previous analyses related to OIL linked below.
WTI OIL Scalping medium-term. Check these break-out levels.On my last WTI Oil analysis, I stated that the price action was neutral, which favored scalping:
Two weeks later, that still remains the case as we remain within the 117.00 Resistance and 93.10 Support, with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) being used as the pivot trend-line. For now, a high return strategy would be scalping the 1D Bollinger Bands (chart on the left).
On the longer-term 1W time-frame though (chart on the right), we see that the last 5 months resemble the price action of late 2020/ early 2021. The 1W TSI sequence is fairly similar and the longer we trade sideways on the medium-term the more it favors the consolidation bias of the accumulation scenario of March - April 2021 and then bullish break-out towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. A break below the 'Prior High' level of 85.00 would break both the 1D MA200 and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-lines on both charts) and should target the 66.10 December Low at least.
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USOIL - Choppy but still bearishYesterday, we showed a bearish breakout in the RSI of USOIL. Although, later, during the trading session, this breakout became invalidated, and RSI moved back above the horizontal support. Despite that, we remain bearish on the USOIL, and our price targets stay in place.
Illustration 1.01
The idea above shows yesterday's intraday breakout below the support in the RSI on the daily time frame chart.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX exhibits growth which signals that the bearish momentum is gaining strength. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the retracement in the RSI on the daily chart.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD performed a bearish crossover recently; however, it remains in the upper area of the bullish zone. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market, with ADX suggesting their further deterioration. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI Crude Oil: 19.4 - A slide off the edge? A 'rising wedge" pattern is one of the most bearish candlestick patterns out there.
It's when the highs consolidate with the lows in the shape of a sharp triangle going up.
When the support trend-line breaks down - A trend reversal is usually ON!
Meaning that from higher highs and lows the shift is to lower highs and lows and new lower targets are targeted.
Yesterday I've covered how a break below 104.50 can be the beginning of a $10 or more drop down.
105.60 is another important support level to be broken and a blockage on the way down.
Today is a very critical day as it may break this level, the other scenario is that WTI could retest the broken rising wedge at the high 107's low 108's.
Pay close attention to the WTI today, as this could be the beginning of a significant correction down.
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WTI oil - The EU ban on Russian oil risks higher pricesRecently, we stated that USOIL has bottomed out and is due to drift lower during the rest of the year. We continue to maintain this stance. However, over the past few days, there has been an increase in talks about the EU ban on Russian oil. Indeed, several media outlets reported that the EU is about to proceed with this step. Though, it is just a rumor at the moment. But if the EU manages to ban Russian oil, it will force us to abandon bearish bias for USOIL. Actually, in such a case, we think the oil ban would revive the rally and drag prices higher, possibly reaching a new high.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows USOIL on the daily time frame. It also shows the resistance at a slope (white line) and the bullish breakout above it (indicated by the yellow arrow). We will look for a potential breakdown in price and invalidation of the bullish breakout.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and MACD are bearish. However, MACD is trying to break above 0 points into the bullish zone. If it manages to do so, it will bolster the case for USOIL. Stochastic reversed to the upside and points in the bullish direction. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. However, ADX contains a low value, indicating no significant trend. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI started to flatten recently. However, its bearish structure remains intact. MACD is in the bullish zone; however, it began to decline first and then flatten. Stochastic is bearish. DM+ and DM- signal bullish conditions in the market. ADX declines, which suggests that the prior bullish trend of a higher degree is weakening. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above portrays the weekly RSI of USOIL. The bearish structure can be seen intact.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI OIL Neutral short-term buy watch these break-out levels.WTI Oil (USOIL) just broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the brutal March 08 multi-year High. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has turned into a short-term Support while the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) remains the short-term Resistance.
Despite the Lower Highs trend-line, the price action remains rather neutral due to March's wild swings and high volatility, unless either the 93.10 Support or the 117.00 Resistance break.
A break below 93.10 should be bearish towards the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and then the December 20 low, but still it would be best to get a closing below the 85.50 High of 2021 before engaging into long-term selling.
A break above 117.00 should be bullish towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (152.60) long-term, which is the less likely scenario.
The safest strategy on the medium-term is to scalp inside the neutral zone.
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WTIUSD OIL bearish mediumtermWTIUSD OIL bearish
WTI broke below a key long-term pennant that had been squeezing the price action earlier in the week, with some technicians taking this as a sign that WTI will fall back towards support in the $90 area.
Projection would be 60. But on Mediumterm i think we will have conditions to go to 93.50 or 90.00. Would be our targets.
I will be a false breakout we will recover to retest ma50 4h near 102 area.
For now seems we retested today the pennant and we have conditions to have an impulse to the downside.
Targets. Supports, Resistances on chart.
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Be carefull, patient and discipline.
❗ DISCLAIMER ❗
This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market.
But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. You deserve the profit and you are responsible for your potential loss.
Only you can be responsible for your trading.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice.
This Plan can be changed anytime, depending on how the price will arrive at the level and what will be happening on my level of interest for entry. Then I will decide if I will enter or not.
So please don't just blindly follow this. The author of the analysis does not accept liability for any loss or damage.
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Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
The possibility that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
The FX market is a quickly changing environment and it requires full focus on the levels for the precise entry with low risk.
WTIOIL: BEARS ON TOPRecently WTI OIL is trading below its trend line as well as above its support price 99, price is under EMA 10. There is lack of transparency in the direction. The is a bit conjuction in signals from indicators. No trade is currently recommended. If one have opened a fresh long position than strictly keep stop loss at 92 and for the short holder 99 is stop loss.
WTI must give its breakout either side to clarify the trend..
USDWTI : INTRADAY VIEWWTI is been consolidating b/w 99-106 and avoiding volitlty since 3 days. But when you look at chart it clearly state that there is strong support and a trend line i.e helping wti sustain above 99.
WHAT DOES CHART SAY FOR TODAY(INTRADAY)
WTI can take a small dip again to 99-100 taking support and will sustain above the trend line underlying at 98.5
HOW TO TRADE PROFITABLE TODAY?
I would suggest buy on dip would be great deal for today. As after taking the support of trend line at 99-100 WTI may enter into uptrend and will change its dynamics from consolidation to Bullish A-B-C patter.
You can take a small quantity at 99.5 the accumulating quantity on every dip would be a great DEAL for LONG traders.
And for INTRADAY traders 105 would be Profit booking price.
WTI OIL is correcting. Continue to fall or new rally ahead?A month ago when WTI Oil was testing historic Highs due to the escalation of the Ukraine - Russia war, I called for the need to pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line):
That day turned out to be the market top (to this date) and Oil did pull-back to the 1D MA50. In fact after the first 1D MA50 test (and hold), the price rebounded but only managed to make a Lower High and eventually got rejected back towards the 1D MA50 again, which held (so far) for the 2nd time. It is obvious that as long as it holds, it makes a stronger case for a new rebound. If that breaks above the prior Lower High/ Resistance of 117.00, then we can claim that the long-term bullish trend will be extended and in the next 3 months we will see successive Higher Highs. The basis for this, as I also analyzed on my March 08 analysis, is the similarities of the past 6 months of Oil's price action with the September 2020 - March 2021 sequence.
On the other hand, if the 1D MA50 fails and a 1D candle closes below it, WTI should seek the next Resistance Zone which consists of the Prior High of 85.50 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently at 80.75. A closing below the 1D MA200, could open the way to a new Bear Cycle.
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WTI OIL Can the death fractal of 2008 be repeated?We haven't looked into WTI Oil recently, the last post I made was on March 08, calling what I thought at the time as the medium-term peak:
The price did eventually pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded as it constitutes the medium-term Support, following the March 2021 sequence.
On a much larger scale though, and since the war isn't over yet and inflation runs wild, I thought it would be beneficial looking at the last time similar conditions were leading the Oil market higher. Sadly, that was during the 2008 peak of the U.S. Housing Bubble.
As you see, today's 2021-2022 fractal can be related to a great extent to the 2007-2008 sequence. If the market dynamics have been indeed aligned as in 2008, then Oil has entered the final phase towards the blow-off top, as it rebounded on its 1D MA50. Now of course, reaching the 2.382 Fibonacci extension around $178.00 for a blow-off top, seems even under the latest aggressive conditions, as unrealistic. But a value around $150.00 as a Higher High to the March 08 shock, could very well be printed.
Do you think the market will follow in 2008's footsteps and if so what is your projected top?
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🛢️ CRUDE OIL - 17% Higher Since our PERFECT Post 🦉💙
Our previous Oil post was perfectly on support. It is now over 17% higher since our entry.
Even more impressively, you may go back to our post on March 3rd:
also here:
and here:
Pure perfection..FXPROFESSOR style
OIL PRICES:
War in Ukraine is the biggest issue here. Inflation equally the other big issue. Then again you know a lot about these 2 factors but there is a third one:
Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales
Talks between Riyadh and Beijing have accelerated as the Saudi unhappiness grows with Washington.
Unfortunately we must keep our eyes open on all these and pray for the best. Situation is not a good one.
Keep safe people.
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR
OIL trend has changed. Big profits on shortA simple analysis of the trend without indicators just following the basic trendline guidance.
As we see with don't have an uptrend anymore and that will be more clear the next 2 days.
If nothing bad happens again between Russia and Ukraine i think we will go back to the 80-90 dollar region fast.
So we go short expecting huge decline and high profit.
Good Luck to all, hope you all make money this week.
USOIL formed a breakout and retest pack on the 110 resistanceMarket Instrument: USOIL
Timeframe: Weekly
Analysis: Technical
Structure: Resistance Breakout and Pull Back
Prediction: Bullish
USOIL has successfully breached the resistance formed at 110 with a huge buying pressure with the war between Russia and Ukraine. So if the following price action is not going for a fake-out on the breakout formed. Then we may see a continuation of this bull rally towards the next resistance formed close to 146 which has happened during 2008. And fall hard rejecting at the 110 area will invalidate the setup.