Wtioil
Technical analysis update: USOIL (27th July 2021)WTI oil continues to trade around 72 USD per barrel. Recently OPEC deal cleared out uncertainty about future supply boosts in the oil market. Despite initial selloff as reaction to the announcement of a deal we view this agreement among OPEC as bullish developement for medium and long term price of oil. Rising vaccination rates are leading to higher mobility in the U.S. and Europe. Higher mobility and less lockdowns subsequently hint to higher demand for oil in the near future. Earlier this year OPEC announced that it expects oil demand to rise by 6 million bpd this year. In addition to that IEA announced that it expects oil demand to rise by 5.4 million bpd this year and by another 3.1 million bpd next year. Though, pre-pandemic levels of demand (approximately at 100.6 million bpd) are expected to be reached by end of 2022. This points to the fact that oil market recovery is still in the progress and has plenty of room to continue. RSI and MACD are flattening out and becoming neutral. Stochastics is bullish. ADX contains low value suggesting weak or no trend. Our medium term price target is 77.50 USD per barrel and our long term price target for oil is 80 USD per barrel.
Developements from 20th July 2021:
Here we stated that price was very attractive for taking entry on long side of the market (price traded at 66.57 USD at time of publication). Then price rebounded back above 70 USD per barrel and continued further above 72 USD per barrel.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI OIL needs to break this Lower Highs trend-linePattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy if the Lower Highs trend-line breaks or if the MACD forms a Bullish Cross.
Target: 80.00 (below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
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Technical analysis update: WTI oil (22nd July 2021)On 20th July 2021 USOIL halted its decline at 65.11 USD per barrel. Price traveled back to its short term simple moving average. Simultaneously, RSI reversed above 30 points, not piercing oversold line. This phenomenon tends to accompany strong trends of higher degree. In regards to oil it suggests that bullish trend of higher degree remains intact. MACD is flattening out. We think there are high odds of that correction ceased already. Our medium term price target remains 77.50 USD and our long term price target remains 80 USD per barrel.
Developements from 20th July 2021:
Here we announced that OPEC deal would be bullish in medium and long term for price of oil. This is mainly due to clearing out uncertainties about future supply boosts to the market. We also hinted at possibility of WTI oil going towards 65 USD under selling pressure. We also stated that any price below 67 USD per barrel would be attractive entry point for taking long position.
Prior developements from 5th July 2021:
Here we stated that we remain bullish despite increasing odds of correction. We set medium price target to 77.50 USD and long term price target to 80 USD.
More prior developements from 1st June 2021:
Here we correctly predicted move above resistance and subsequently reached our short term price target of 70 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
CL1 Short to 0.618 fibIRAQ IS SEEKING HIGHER OPEC+ PRODUCTION BASELINE: DELEGATE
UAE ENERGY MINISTRY SAYS NO AGREEMENT HAS BEEN REACHED YET WITH OPEC+ ON SUPPLY DEAL, DELIBERATIONS CONTINUE
With the OPEC agreement in a state of deliberation, and compliance a real question, the market is needing to price in some bearish risk potential. Especially given the recent extension that we've had. I believe that there is a real market deficit still, but this bearish risk is also very real.
I would be comfortable entering a short CL1 position until around $70, and reassessing before flipping long.
Of course, any significant news can change this view... all eyes on are OPEC
WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price (a) reached the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up, (b) entered the Ichimoku Cloud and (c) the RSI hit its 1 year Support line.
Target: 77.80 (the previous Higher High).
Previous WTI OIL signal:
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Technical analysis update: WTI oil (16th July 2021)WTI oil continues to experience selling pressure due to the stalemate within OPEC deal . However, anonymous sources hinted that some form of agreement has been struck between Saudi Arabia and UAE. If true, this would be bullish developement for price of oil. Before the selloff started we stated that selling would cease around 70 USD per barrel. Then price found its support at 70.79 USD and reversed back to the upside. Currently price fluctuates between 70 USD and 77 USD. MACD, RSI and Stochastics are all bearish. However, RSI shows first signs of flattening. Despite bearish technicals we remain bullish. We expect OPEC to reach agreement and view this as catalyst for move up. Our medium term price target remains 77.50 USD and our long term price target remains 80 USD per barrel.
Thoughts from 5th July 2021:
Here we warned investors about overbought condition in WTI oil. We also stated that odds of correction are increasingly growing.
More thoughts from 1st June 2021:
Here we predicted move above resistance and reached our price target of 70 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI OIL, H4 - inverted HSH and harmonic patternInverted head and shoulders pattern suggests further uptrend. Target could be 88.6 of Fibo where is resistance level and harmonic pattern
CRUDE OIL - 73,54 Is Now ResistanceOur updated chart on WTI CRUDE OIL shows that the corerctyion is probably incomplete and the oirce under it's previous support/ now Resistance at 73.54
According to Reuters , Crude futures slipped on Monday as concerns over slowing global growth outweighed the prospect of tightening supply after talks among key producers to raise output in coming months stalled.
In the meantime, U.S. energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row as oil prices recently rose to their highest since Oct. 2018, prompting some drillers to return to the well pad. Clearly the intention of the US is to control prices, with CPI tomorrow going to be crucial data for what happens next with the US dollar.
On the other hand, last week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, failed to reach an agreement to increase output from August while Saudi Arabia , the world's top crude oil exporter, will supply full contractual volumes of August-loading crude to at least five Asian countries but has turned down two of the buyers' requests for extra barrels....
In other words, the price is expected to keep being volatile but our charts suggest a short position unless it breaches over this crucial new resistance (73,54$).
the FXPROFESSOR
WTI OIL Getting closer to a buyPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy when contact is made with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) or the RSI enters the long-term buy zone.
Target: 79.50 (top of the Channel).
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OIL- OPEC Deal or No Deal?What a lovely day this is, what a fantastic thing Technical Analysis is.
Yes, we took profit perfectly today on what was a rather easy and predictable trade.
The price dropped minutes later from resistance to support and off from support bouncing back up at the moment.
What is important to understand now is the fundamentals.
Oil price surge triggers new inflation fears as Opec talks break down
The United Arab Emirates refused Saudi Arabia’s demands to increase production, leaving the meeting collapsing with no decision.
Some analysts are now predicting oil will climb to $100 a barrel. Economists said surging oil prices threaten to destabilise the world economy’s fight back from the Covid doldrums. As well as being key to the cost of powering factories, oil and its associated products form a key element in most consumer goods...
Check the idea below and remember who the greatest Bull of ALL TIMES is...(inflation)
Technical analysis update: USOIL (22nd June 2021)On 16th June 2021 we said that we might see small and shortlived correction towards 68 USD per barrel. However, USOIL stopped its decline at 69.80 USD on 17th June 2021. Then it reversed back up and made a new peak. Our medium term price target remains at 75 USD per barrel. MACD, Stochastics and DMI are all bullish. Although, RSI remains in overbought zone. In addition to that RSI again shows signs of reversing to the downside. We think analysts should be cautious about this observation. It is possible that USOIL will drop again below 70 USD before finally going to 75 USD.
Here are our thoughts from 16th June 2021:
Here we said that price drop could send us to Support 2 around 68 USD per barrel.
Here are prior thoughts from 4th June 2021:
Here we outlined case for 70 USD and 72.50 USD pricetag.
More prior thoughts from 24th May 2021:
Our first idea from 28th April 2021:
Here we outlined case for 65 USD pricetag with simple use of moving averages.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI OIL Channel Up rejection shows strong pull-back nextPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Sell as the price got rejected on the Higher Highs trend-line of the Channel Up. This will be confirmed once the 1D MACD makes a Bearish Cross.
Target: The 4H MA200 initially (red trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in extension where yuo can shift to a buy.
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WTICOUSD correction begins.WTICOUSD correction begins. My analysis shows that the rise has stalled. The halt is caused by the upper level of D1ATR. The D1ATR(white square height) shows the 14-day average of the maximum value of the intraday move. In other words, the maximum distance that the price movement can travel in a day with the currently measured ATR value. Simple math. Let's move on. Above and below the white square of D1ATR is a red square. This is the so-called "spike area". In these areas, price movement can occur, but no price can close beyond one day. This ensures the symmetry of the wave movement within the D1ATR. Also visible is a green square within the D1ATR. This is also significant. This is actually the wave of the symmetrical wave structure that has formed. I am waiting for the second period of this. To briefly summarize. A correction in oil(WTI) may begin. The first target price : 71.887 usd
USOILCurrently oil is trading @ 73.00 dollars and we've been looking for a 50% pullback since the beginning of the uptrend after the devastating downtrend which was caused by the COVID19, we believe we are about to get our 50% pullback once price reaches 86.00 dollars. Once we reach 86.00 dollars we expect price to reach for the 50% around 52.00 dollars or 43.00 dollars if the bears decides to take it to 61.8%.
Once we get the complete pullback we expect the bulls to push price to 140.00 dollars completing our predicted price move.
Disclaimer: This idea is not a trading signal but it is merely just an idea any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author (not advice or financial advice in any sense, and in the sense of any act, ordinance or law of any country) and must not be used for financial activities.
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (16th June 2021)USOIL reached our short term price target of 72.50 USD per barrel. Because of that we would like to update our thoughts on WTI oil. Moving averages and MACD remain bullish. However, price traveled too far from its 20-day Simple Moving Average. At the same time RSI reached overbought levels. Our medium term price target remains at 75 USD per barrel but we think in short term there is possibility of short lived correction that could take us back towards Support 2 level around 68 USD per barrel. However, we think bullish trend of higher degree will remain intact. This is because economic recovery is still in progress. Demand is expected to rise about 6 million bpd in 2021 and another 3 million bpd next year. Pre-pandemic demand was around 100.6 million bpd. Same level of demand is expected to be reached in second half of 2022.
Here are our thoughts from 9th June 2021:
Here are prior developements from 4th June 2021:
Here are more prior developements from 1st June 2021:
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI OIL overbought stillPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy once the price breaks below the 1D MA50 again (blue trend-line).
Target: 76.00 (closer to the top of the inner Channel).
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WTI Oil An interesting fractalWhat do you think of this fractal on the 1W time-frame? The price action since mid 2020 resembles that from early 2017 to mid-late 2018. During that time, WTI started off a Channel Down (blue), then as it broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) it rose aggressive and after it broke above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) as well, it entered a a 9 month Channel Up (green) that eventually led to the October - December 2018 collapse. During that Channel Up, a 1W Golden Cross got formed.
Since mid 2020, the price seems to be following the 2017/2018 sequence. We are currently inside the (green) Channel Up. Even the RSI and MACD are printing similar sequences. Will another 1W Golden Cross emerge that will lead the Channel Up to a blow-off top? What do you think?
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Technical analysis update: WTI oil (4th June 2021)Technicals such as RSI, MACD and Stochastics are all bullish. In addition to that ADX shows signs of awakening. Price continues to rise and on 3rd June USOIL’s price reached 69.37 USD. We think there is high probabillity that USOIL will reach our short term price target of 70 USD within next week. Because of that we would like to update our medium term price target for USOIL to 72.50 USD.
Our thought from 1st June 2021:
Here we see that previous resistance was taken out. Prior resistance level currently acts as support.
Our thought from 24th May 2021:
Here are some prior developements.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI OIL Is $100 a realistic price target?A lot of talk has been made lately around popular assets like Gold's strength, the selling on BTC and the weakness of the USD while few have been paying attention to WTI Crude Oil's long-term carts. WTI has silently broken above its Historic Lower Highs trend-line (that has been in effect since the July 2008 Market Top) and is on a sustainable trade above it. This key advancement may have very important implications on the long-term, as with the DXY on a continuous fall, it appears that after decades, we may finally see Higher Highs on Oil.
On top of that, last month, the 1W chart formed a Bullish Cross (BC) between the MA50 (blue trend-line) and the MA100 (green trend-line). Since 1995, we have had seven 1W MA50/100 Bullish Crosses and all but one delivered a Higher High. In the 4 most recent ones in particular, 3 times the price reached at least the 1.5 Fibonacci extension counting from the previous bottom. The 1.5 Fib extension currently sits at 102.50.
Is this sustainable break-out from the Historic Lower Highs along with the 1W BC, good news for oil producers? Do you think $100 is realistic in the near future? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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WTI OIL Buy the 1D MA50 pull-backPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy once contact is made again with the 1D MA50 or the RSI enters its Buy Zone. The entries have been consistent since March 23.
Target: 72.00 (around the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
Previous WTI plan:
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WTI OIL Resistance Zone being tested. Action plan.Pattern: Descending Triangle on 4H.
Signal: As long as the Resistance Zone stays intact, sell (A). If broken buy (B).
Target: (A) 62.50 (the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level), (B) 68.30 (the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level).
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