USOil Trade IdeaUSOil (WTI) is under pressure, it has retraced into my optimal entry zone on the 4H. Looking to sell at the currrent level with a 2R target. SL above the previuos high. Not financial advice.
Wtioil
Crude Oil: Potential Bullish ShiftOn 4h timeframe, WTI Crude Oil is printing a falling wedge pattern followed by Bearish Divergence on RSI. Potential Reversal Zone is predicted using the AB=CD pattern.
TRADE PLAN
Buy on breakout on previous Lower High.
Stop Loss on previous Lower Low
TP1, TP2 with RRR of 1:1 and 1:2 respectively
WTI OIL Will it continue to drop?WTI Oil (USOIL) gave us an excellent sell signal last week (April 29, see chart below) following the first 4H Death Cross since October 10 2023, which easily hit our Target:
We now need to look at the longer-term time-frames for clues on the direction as short-term it turned bearish. Looking at the 1D time-frame though, we can clearly see that WTI is on a strong Support Cluster consisting of the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The Higher Lows trend-line that started on the December 13 2023 bottom, is just below.
With the 1D RSI hitting its 30.00 oversold level and rebounded, we are bullish short-term, targeting 84.00 (the Lower Highs trend-line). If however we close a 1D candle below the Higher Lows, we will take the loss and turn bearish instead, targeting 71.00 (the 0.236 Fibonacci and just above the 3-year Higher Lows Zone. The risk is low on this strategy.
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WTI Running wellThe previous setup i shared about WTI is confirmed and actally is running pretty well. I expect a continuation to the upside till the resistance area at $81.5 before a possible retrace. On lower timeframe we can see a bullish divergence and a break above bearish trendline. Expecting higher
WTI On supportWTI is sitting on major support area. On smaller timeframe we can see a lower low here, and if it's going to bounce it should be from there. I expect a reversal pattern today with a continuation of the upside moves next week. Main target from the long $83
OIL - WTI 4H BullishWTI Oil has indeed finished its second leg and retracted back to a significant order block zone.
This is often a signal for potential accumulation before another ascent.
Based on current patterns, it's poised to climb back up towards the previous decline pivot, setting up an interesting play for those watching the oil markets.
WTI OIL 1st 4H Death Cross in 7 months. Will it turn bearish?WTI Oil (USOIL) made a solid (Higher) Low at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern and started rising as we discussed on our previous idea (April 22, see chart below):
We now need to take it a time-frame lower to 4H as on Friday the market formed the first 4H Death Cross (4H MA50 crossing below the 4H MA200) in almost 7 months (since October 10 2023). This has the capacity to invalidate the current 4-month bullish trend but only if Oil closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
As long as it doesn't, we remain bullish on WTI, targeting 94.00, which is at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up and marginally below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is where the previous Higher High peaked.
At the same time, this is where the the previous Channel Up of July - September 2023 made the symmetrical Higher High, relative to the current proportion. As you can see, there is a strong degree of symmetry between the two fractals, even in terms of RSI, with the only notable difference (which as mentioned can be critical), being the 4H Death Cross.
If the price does close that 1D candle below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss on the buy and go short instead, targeting 78.00 (just above Support 1).
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WTI looks set to bounce above $80Oil prices have retraced just under 8% from the MTD (month-to-date) high. And it looks like the market is trying to stabilise around a support cluster, just above the $80 handle. The cluster includes the 50-day MA, high-volume node and prior consolidation zone.
A small doji also firmed around these levels to suggest a swing high has formed, or very near.
A bounce to $84 could be on the cards as part of a technical retracement against its prior move lower. Bulls could enter live around current levels with a stop beneath $80, or seek dips towards it in anticipation of an eventual move higher to increase the potential reward to risk ratio.
WTI OIL On the 1D MA50 & bottom of the Channel Up.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) today for the first time since February 07 and touched the bottom of the long-term Channel Up, forming a Higher Low. This is only 2 weeks after the formation of a 1D Golden Cross, the first since August 22 2023.
That Golden Cross was also formed during a correction, which eventually kept the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) intact and initiated a new Bullish Leg towards the 2.0 and 2.382 Fibonacci extensions.
As a result, we remain bullish as long as Oil closes 1D candles above the 1D MA200, and target $94.00 (Fib 2.0 ext). If it closes even a single candle below it, we expect a new long-term Channel Down, similar to the one that was initiated after the September 28 2023 High, and we will take the small loss, open a short and target 71.50 (Support 1).
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Oil Prices: Geopolitical Tensions and Market DynamicsOil prices have once again surged, reaching nearly $88.00 per barrel, despite a recent minor decline. This uptick in prices is occurring amidst a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and a strengthening US Dollar. However, amidst this volatility, it's essential to dissect the various factors influencing oil prices, from geopolitical unrest to economic forecasts and technical indicators.
Geopolitical Tensions and Market Sentiment:
Geopolitical tensions often act as a catalyst for oil price volatility. Conflicts in oil-producing regions can disrupt supply chains and lead to uncertainty in the market. Recent geopolitical events have heightened concerns, contributing to the surge in oil prices. However, it's crucial to note that while geopolitical factors can trigger short-term spikes, their long-term impact is contingent on broader market dynamics and economic fundamentals.
Impact of Economic Forecasts and Electric Vehicle Market Growth:
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently revised its oil demand forecast for the current year and the next, citing a lackluster economic outlook and the growing market share of electric vehicles (EVs). This adjustment underscores the evolving landscape of energy consumption, with EVs exerting pressure on traditional oil demand. As such, forecasts of slower growth in oil demand highlight the need for adaptability within the energy sector.
Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies:
Technical analysis plays a pivotal role in navigating oil price fluctuations. Assessing indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Fibonacci levels provides insights into market sentiment and potential price movements. Currently, the confluence of signals, including RSI divergence and overbought conditions, suggests caution. Additionally, the absence of a significant retracement to the 78.6% Fibonacci level warrants a strategic approach to setting stop-loss levels and identifying potential entry points.
US Dollar Strength and Interest Rate Differentials:
The recent rally in the US Dollar Index (DXY) underscores market expectations of a widening interest-rate differential between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks. This divergence in monetary policy influences currency movements and has implications for commodities priced in dollars, such as oil. Understanding the interplay between currency dynamics and oil prices is essential for informed decision-making in trading and investment strategies.
In addition to fundamental and technical analyses, seasonality patterns offer valuable insights into market behavior. By examining historical price trends during specific times of the year, traders can identify recurring patterns and optimize their trading strategies accordingly. Incorporating seasonality analysis alongside other analytical tools enhances the robustness of decision-making processes and mitigates risks associated with market volatility.
WTI Ready for round 2 WTI has recently broken out from daily bearish trendline and i expect a bullish continuation in the next few days. It's going to complete a retest of the trendline and the level it's actually playing is also an important support zone. Target $94
West Texas Oil:🔴Bearish scenario🔴As you can see, the price reached a daily bearish FVG and had a bearish reaction, so we are looking for a sell position.
I am searching for a premium entry, there is buy-side liquidity below FVG which aligns with the balance price range.
Until we don't close the candle body above the Daily FVG, I am bearish.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️15/04/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
USOIL - WEEKLY FORECASTForecast: Return to Bullish Trend (Daily)
Invalidation Level: 75.72
Only buy when the price is close to these levels: 82.99; 80.31.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Going to $100 by end of May.WTI Crude Oil is on very healthy bullish levels on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 63.780, MACD = 1.930, ADX = 37.316) as well as on 1W (RSI = 60.882). This supports the notion that until 1W turns overbought, the 1D can continue to sustain the bullish sequence that started on the December 13th 2023 low. Having formed a 1D Golden Cross just this Tuesday, the last time we got that formation was on August 22nd 2023.
You can see that WTI was within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci range then and immediately rallied after the Cross to complete a +49.50% rise from the bottom. We expect a similar trend reaction and we are targeting slightly under the symmetric +49.50% mark (TP = 100.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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#XTIUSD/WTIOIL: 2000 Pips Buying Opportunity! Do not miss outFirst prediction on XTIUSD turned out to be a successful one where take profit '1' hit . successfully which gave us nice 900 pips in profit. Now we are looking at the broader picture on XTIUSD, targeting 96.00 region which remain crucial for many traders. Price is at the right zone to enter swing, take entry with accurate stop loss that suits your trading style. Please do your own research too before taking any buying entry on XTIUSD.
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XTIUSD(USOIL): 07/04/2024 We are pleased to inform you that our previous four setups on XTIUSD have been successfully respected. We maintain our belief that our initial target of $100 is highly achievable. The price has rebounded effectively from our initial concept. At this juncture, we anticipate a minor correction before the price reaches our designated area. Our immediate target is $92, which represents a substantial 1000 pips from our entry point. Our ultimate take profit objective remains at 1800 pips.
Oil unaffected by the Port of Baltimore's closureAfter breaking above the ascending channel and reaching its highest value in nearly six months late last week, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil retested the upper bound of the channel during yesterday’s trading session. The outlook continues to look bullish on daily and weekly time frames. Nevertheless, multiple indicators flash overbought signals on the daily chart, implying this might not be the best spot to enter the market on the long side, and instead, it might be preferable to wait for a more substantial correction.
While waiting for such an event, we would like to address a recent tragedy in Baltimore that captured national headlines and caused the closure of the Port of Baltimore. Some analysts proclaimed this to be the start of bigger problems for various supply chains. However, despite the event's emotional weight and social implications, its impact on the oil market has been minimal. That is mainly because the port’s imports are not made up of crude oil but rather petroleum-derived products, including biodiesel, asphalt, and numerous fertilizers (along with different non-petroleum products). Therefore, the port does not hold considerable significance to the oil market.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and the upward-sloping channel.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI OIL Consolidation before rise to $91.50.WTI Oil (USOIL) is trading within a Channel Up pattern since the January 28 High supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) - 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) Zone. The Bullish Legs have so far recorded rises within a +8.24% to +10.24% range.
Right now it appears that Oil has finished the latest Bullish Leg as the 4H RSI made its standard Peak formation and declined. According to the previous RSI patterns, this decline is the most optimal buy entry.
Now we should be expecting a consolidation around the 4H MA50 and not lower than the 4H MA200 before the next rally. Taking the lowest +8.24% rise scenario, we are targeting for a minimum Higher High at 91.50.
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WTI OIL Big rally ahead unless it breaks below the 1W MA100.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit our long-term 82.50 Target last week, a call made early this year (January 12, see chart below) when the price was still at $74.33:
At the moment, the price sits above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since the week of October 23 2023, as the week opened above it. This calls for an upward extension similar to the September 04 2023 1W MA100 bullish break-out.
As long as the 1W candles close above the 1W MA100, we will stay bullish, targeting the 18-month Resistance Zone (red) at 92.50. If Oil closes a 1W candle below the 1W MA100 though, we will take the loss and open a short instead, targeting the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and Higher Lows trend-line at 79.00.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Sell signal at the top of the Channel Up.WTI Crude Oil reached the top of the December 2023 Channel Up as well as the dashed Channel Up that started after it crossed over the MA50 (1d).
This is a double sell opportunity.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Sell again if the price closes a (1d) candle under the dashed Channel Up.
Targets:
1. 82.00 (bottom of dashed Channel Up).
2. 79.00 (bottom of long term Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) crossed into the overbought zone (above 70.00). That is an additional reason for a technical correction.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
WTICO Outperforms BCO on US Oil Production RiseWTICO (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil) has recently been outperforming BCO (Brent Crude Oil). This trend coincides with an increase in US-produced oil replacing sanctioned Indian refined oil.
Potential Opportunity in WTICO
The shift in market dynamics could present an opportunity for traders considering long positions in WTICO. However, as always, it's important to conduct your own research and consider factors like:
• Market Volatility: Oil prices can fluctuate significantly due to various factors.
• Global Oil Production: Changes in global oil production can impact WTICO's price.
• Your Investment Strategy: This trade should align with your overall risk tolerance and investment goals.
Stay Informed, Make Informed Decisions
We recommend staying updated on market developments before making any investment decisions.
We're Here to Help
Please don't hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or would like to discuss this further within the comments.
US OIL (WTI) MARKET ANALYSE. (READ CAPTION)Technical Analysis:
Incorporate key trading indicators such as the double line resistance breakout, pullback support, and demand zone analysis to assess price movements in the US Oil market. Identify channels and trendlines to spot potential breakout or breakdown points, confirming with volume and momentum indicators like relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD). Additionally, monitor the US Dollar Index (DXY) for its impact on oil prices, considering its inverse correlation. Stay vigilant for opportunities at support and demand zones, utilizing these levels for entry and exit points in your trading strategy.
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U.S. oil prices will continue to rise on March 14th.
As the four major inventories continue to decrease. U.S. oil continues to rise. WTI quotation as of closing: 79.153
U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week to March 8 (10,000 barrels)
(-5.221 million barrels)
U.S. EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventories for the week to March 8 (-1.536 million barrels)
EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to March 8 (-220,000 barrels)
EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to March 8 (596,000 barrels)
BLACKBULL:WTI FPMARKETS:WTI BLACKBULL:WTI NYMEX:WTI1! MATBAROFEX:WTI1!
There are good motivations for the rise in oil prices. At the beginning of the Asian market, oil was stable above 79. Judging from short-term trends, market demand continues to increase due to the spread of geopolitics. It is expected to continue to rise above 80. At the same time, OPEC countries have also decided to reduce production. If there is no physical fall below 79 in the short term, you can directly buy. If the body falls sharply and falls below 79. We can buy near 78.6 in the second position
personal suggestion:
79.-79.3 buy. sl78.TP80.6
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