Crude oil could rally from $72Price action has been very choppy on the daily crude oil chart, but if we place a line chart over the top is shows prices are trying to break out of a small triangle / pennant. Whilst these are usually expected to be continuation pattern, they can also make decent reversal pattern. And this case, we've see prices hold above $70 on a closing basis, and the lower candle wicks made a series of higher lows. Momentum is now turning higher.
Bulls could seek dips down to $72 (yesterday's low) or a break of its high, with an upside target around $78, near the 200-day MA and 100-day EMA.
Wtioil
The Red Sea tensions - all you need to knowThe West Texas Intermediate crude oil has trended mostly sideways for over a month, moving between $68 and $75 per barrel. Yet, while the situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea continues to deteriorate, the oil market keeps growing increasingly ignorant of the dangers of a broader war in the region that could further disrupt the transit of goods and oil through (other) important shipping chokepoints and impact the oil supply (remember, the Middle East region accounts for about one-third of global oil supply).
To put into perspective how bad the situation in the Red Sea has become (following the start of the Israel-Hamas War), here are a few numbers: the number of cargo ships and oil tankers transiting through the Bab el-Mandev Strait fell by approximately 50%, and the volume of the cargo (measured in metric tons) dropped by about 67% between 7th October 2023 and last Friday (with most of the decline starting in mid-December 2023 after major shipping like companies halted transit through the Red Sea). In addition to that, since the start of the year (until last Friday), the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operation reported thirty-five instances of either attack, hijacking, incident, or suspicious approach in the area.
Furthermore, about a week and a half ago, the United States and the United Kingdom finally decided to take more aggressive steps against Houthi’s harassment, launching airstrikes on their positions in Yemen. In response to that, the rebels vowed to continue fighting the United States and Israel (and their allies), executing multiple new attacks on commercial and military vessels in the regional waters (the terrorist group also announced a safe passage for Russian and Chinese ships). In essence, Houthi’s attacks against the United States Navy equal a declaration of war, something the United States is trying to deny as it attempts to avoid an all-out war with Houthis and other proxies of Iran (and potentially Iran itself; do not forget this is a highly political question for the United States as it would mean higher prices of oil and a likely return of rising inflation).
Nevertheless, with Israel’s administration being opposed to stopping its campaign against Hamas in Gaza, it is improbable there will be any relief from Houthi’s attacks anytime soon. In fact, a lack of diplomatic efforts to end the Israel-Hamas War and to resolve the Red Sea crisis keeps increasing the risk of new parties entering the conflict and letting the war spiral out of control. As this has tremendous implications for the oil market (with the broader war being a highly bullish catalyst for the oil price), monitoring the situation in the Red Sea remains a high priority. However, as this scenario still remains only a speculation, our price target of $65 per barrel remains unaffected (at least for now); in the short term, though, we expect the USOIL to continue oscillating between $68 and $75 (and perhaps even breaking temporarily above this range).
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of the USOIL. Yellow arrows indicate significant events in the Middle East. It can be observed that oil rose only slightly in response to the eruption of the Israel-Hamas War on 7th October 2023, and then quickly reversed the direction. Once Houthi rebels began to ramp up their attacks on commercial and military ships in November 2023, oil ticked higher only a bit and then resumed a decline (it is important to note that Houthis were causing problems in the region already before the war). Then, in mid-December 2023, major shipping companies started to halt the transit of their ships through the region. Since then, the USOIL has trended mostly sideways (despite tensions continuing to rise).
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
GOLD|Important areas of supply and demandHello friends, I hope you are well.
We have the gold chart in the one-hour time frame.
Yesterday we said that we will wait if the support zone is broken down, the next target is the zone (2005-2008).
Now in this area, with the formation of candlestick patterns, it has moved upwards.
The areas that are important for us are the bottom of the previous broken area (2013) and the next area of the origin of the downward aggressive movement, i.e. the price range (2024-2028) for sell positions.
If we lose the support area (2008-2005), our next target is the support area (1990-1995).
GOLD|Important supply and demand areasCurrently, in the one-hour period, the $2060 area can be a good place for sell positions, of course, be careful not to enter the trade without confirmation.
In the first reaction to this area, it went up from the price of 2017$ to 2040$, it gave us a profit of about 230 pips. In the second reaction, collected all the liquidity at the bottom of the range and moved up 2% from there.And moved up about 450 pips.
Right now we see that it is bullish in reaction to the demand range.In smaller time frames, it is more likely that it will not react to the range ahead, so if it does not confirm, do not enter the trade.
There is a possibility that it will go up to the range of 2080. you can look for a sales position there.
This week, look for scalp positions in smaller time frames, even though gold is very bullish this week.
In the one-hour time frame, we have the supply and demand of these areas, when we reach these areas, we can have buy or sell positions.
SOLANA|Trading positions in a BEARISH trendHi guys, I hope you had a profitable trading week.
We have an overview of Solana in 4 hours time.
In continuation of the previous analysis we had of Solana, which went exactly as we expected, now we want to have an update on it, to know what process it has taken.
The last trend of Solana has come in the form of a descending channel, which has reacted well to the up and down of the channel, and has taken its own downward course.
On the 4H time frame, we have a supply zone that we saw two good breakouts from.
The upcoming demand area is the price (85-86.5), which we should keep in mind when the price reaches this area, we can enter buying positions with confirmation.
If this area breaks, we can witness further fall to the area of 72.26
WTI OIL is a strong long-term buy opportunity.WTI Oil (USOIL) has hit today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since October 24 2023. Today's analysis is on the 1W time-frame but we have explained the reasoning behind a long-term buy once the 1D MA50 would break, a month ago (December 19, see idea below):
That Buy Zone offers a low risk action ground for longs and as you can see on today's chart, it is also supported by the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which hasn't allowed a 1W candle to close below it for almost 3 years (since January 25 2021). At the same time the 3-year Support Zone has had 7 times that was hit and held, with the most recent being on December 11 2023.
As a result, if Oil closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, there are high chances of a strong medium-term rally on the 1W scale. So far the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is the Resistance. All 3-year Support Zone rallies rose very aggressively and the two most recent hit at least the 82.50 level, which will be our Target.
This is just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, a line that has been approached 4 times already since November 28 2022. Practically the market has been ranging within a 16-month Rectangle after the 2022 High.
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USOIL is gettick stuck between $68 and $75Geopolitics in the Red Sea
Tensions in the Red Sea continue to rise, with Iran issuing yet another warning to the U.S. and its allies before expanding the war in the rich-oil-producing region. The warning follows the deployment of an Iranian warship in the Red Sea after the withdrawal of the USS Gerald R. Ford supercarrier from the waters earlier this month. In addition to that, it follows an increasing number of attacks from Houthi rebels on commercial and military ships sailing through this popular trade route, which caused major shipping companies to reroute their ships around the Cape of Good Hope, adding additional cost and time to the shipping. To make things worse, in the past few days, there were multiple reports of attacks from Somalian vessels on commercial ships in other parts of the Middle East. Furthermore, there were reports of over 100 attacks on the U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq since mid-October 2023. To sum up these developments, the situation in the region is deteriorating at a fast pace, and the potential eruption of a broader conflict continues to pose a significant threat to falling oil prices.
Technical analysis
Since the start of the year, the USOIL has been mainly trending sideways. The loss of bearish momentum is reflected in a low value of ADX and flattening of RSI, Stochastic, and MACD on the daily chart; the flattening can also be observed on the weekly chart. As a result, we expect the USOIL to keep oscillating between $68 and $75 in the very short term. However, our price target of $65 per barrel stays unchanged.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Bearish (turning neutral)
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOIL reacting only slightly to the tensions in the Red SeaIn mid-December 2023, we witnessed major shipping companies announce a halt to transit through the Red Sea. Then, with the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian, we saw the same companies start reversing their decisions, only to again pause shipping quickly after the resumption (thanks to more attacks from Houthi rebels targeting Maersk ships). As such, the past three weeks in the oil market were marked by turmoil, affecting about 8.2 million barrels per day in transport through the region (and an estimated 12% of the world’s trade). With these tensions increasing, USOIL is reacting positively, and we acknowledge that USOIL may continue to oscillate between $68 and $75 in the short term (before diving lower). However, our price target of $65 per barrel stays in place.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Bearish (turning neutral)
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US OIL : Will the continuation of the war increase the price of Dear friends and colleagues, we are at your service with the world oil chart in the 4-hour time frame. As you can see, oil started to grow after a heavy drop and after breaking its previous ceiling of $72, it was able to reach the resistance range of $76. The dollar reached and is currently traded below this range. Considering the scope of the Middle East war and the escalation of tensions, there is a possibility that oil will reach the range of $100 per barrel.
I would be happy if you share your thoughts with me under this post
Disruption to the oil supply chain averted (at least for now)Following the initiation of Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea, major shipping companies like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd began to reverse their recent decisions to halt transit through this waterway. That is positive news for the world as the region is estimated to account for about 12% of global trade, with 340 million metric tons of cargo and 8.2 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Nonetheless, as disruption to the oil supply chain seems to be averted, this news is likely less favorable for the oil price, which is currently trading near $75.50 per barrel. With that said, we have no reason to change our outlook for the next year, and our price target stays at $65 per barrel; however, in the short term, we acknowledge that USOIL may move higher (potentially somewhere in the range between $77 and $78) before reversing. We will update our thoughts with the emergence of new developments.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the upper bound of the downward-sloping channel, which is quite bullish (unless invalidated).
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Bearish (turning neutral)
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI to find buyers at market?WTICOUSD - 24h expiry
Previous resistance level of 75.34 broken.
Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 73.51-77.10.
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited.
The medium term bias remains bullish.
We look to Buy at 75.00 (stop at 74.20)
Our profit targets will be 77.00 and 77.40
Resistance: 76.14 / 77.10 / 77.75
Support: 74.95 / 73.51 / 72.41
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
WTI H4 / A KEY LEVEL FOR OIL 🛢📊Hello Traders!
This is my perspective on WTI H4. OIL is currently at a key level, and I'm waiting for a confirmation. At the moment, OIL is in a bearish channel pattern and has now reached the resistance level. I anticipate a move until the OB from the price of 78.200. Additionally, there is a significant possibility of a strong bearish move down to the price of 65.000. If there is confirmation of a retracement from the resistance level, I will execute a short trade.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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WTI OIL: 1d Death Cross calls for selling but MA50 has to hold.WTI will complete a Death Cross pattern on the 1d time frame. This will be its second since September 02 2022.
That pattern initiated a strong decline which was a bearish leg inside a Channel Down pattern.
Oil is again trading inside a Channel Down since Sep 28 2023 and the Death Cross can be the sell call for the final leg to the 63.70 Support.
We expect at least 65.00 but the 1d MA50 has to hold. On a different occassion, i.e. a candle closing over the 1d MA50, look for a buy to the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 84.50. That will be almost a +25% rise, which we've seen 4 times since the last 1d Death Cross.
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WTI OIL Still in the long-term Buy Zone.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit our 73.50 short-term Target that we called on December 07 (see chart below) but remains within the 2 -month Channel Down:
On the wider 1D time-frame, we can clearly see that the price is still inside the 9-month Buy Zone. The tendency is that when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks after dipping within the zone, the price approaches the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
The 1D RSI is on a Triple Bottom, i.e. confirmed Low and buy opportunity while the 1D MACD is on a Double Bullish Cross. As a result, we are waiting either for another pull-back to 68.00 - 69.00 or the 1D MA50 to break (and close a 1D candle above) and target 82.50 for the medium-term.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Buy and target the 1day MA50.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL is inside a Channel Down but the bearish strength is fading as a Falling Support has been formed while the 1day RSI Double Bottomed.
At the same time the 1day MACD is about to form the 2nd Bullish Cross in less than a month.
The very same (Channel Down) pattern was trading back in June - August 2022, with the same bullish divergence and MACD Bullish Cross.
The price bottomed on that Cross and rebounded to test the 1day MA50.
Buy and target again the 1day MA50 with an early target estimate being 77.00.
Previous chart:
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A rebound in USOIL might not be done yetLast week, West Texas Intermediate crude oil reached our price target of $70 and slid as low as $68.83 per barrel. After this route, USOIL has slightly rebounded and currently trades near the $71.50 price tag. In the very short term, we acknowledge a potential for the price to continue higher. Indeed, this would be consistent with a natural occurrence of the price retracing toward its moving average, particularly the 20-day SMA. Yet, if the price breaks above this level and starts to consolidate there for a certain period, it might foreshadow even higher price tags; we will reassess our view if we get there. Beyond this short-term speculation about the prospects of further rise in USOIL, we stay bearish. Accordingly, our price target of $65 per barrel for the next year remains valid.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the daily chart of CL1!. Red arrows highlight the decreasing price accompanied by falling volume (suggesting the selling pressure might be decreasing as well).
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily graph of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from particular troughs.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOIL nears $70 per barrel The price of USOIL is edging toward $70 per barrel, which is our price target for 2024. However, it is becoming increasingly possible that we will see this price taken out even by the end of the current year. With that said, we want to raise another price target for the next year, valued at $65 per barrel.
Illustration 1.01
The monthly graph above shows the U.S. crude oil production. From the start of 2023 until September 2023, U.S. crude oil production rose by more than 770,000 barrels per day, which amounts to about 6.2% (since last year’s highs, the production is up more than 13.5%).
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 depicts the monthly chart of the U.S. total rig count. Interestingly, since September 2023, the total rig count stopped declining.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI OIL Channel Down bottom buy signalWTI Oil (USOIL) eventually hit our 71.00 target we set last week (see chart below) upon the dotted Channel Up break-out:
The price is now attempting a rebound following the breach of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is a typical procedure throughout 2023 and delivers a strong rebound. However, we we will our perspective short-term until the Channel Down breaks, and will only target 73.50, which is where we expect contact to be made with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). We reserve a spot for an additional buy at 67.00 (June 28 Low), in case the price makes one last pull-back to price a Lower Low on the Channel Down.
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USOIL is heading Lower and lower (~67$)Hello Traders
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing.
Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
WTI Crude Oil Trading: An In-Depth Analysis of a Bearish TrendDear Esteemed TradingView Members,
I n the ever-evolving world of finance and trading, staying ahead of the curve is essential for success. If you're part of the exclusive audience of elite business professionals and investors, you understand the importance of precise market analysis and informed decision-making. In this article, we delve into the intricacies of WTI Crude Oil trading to provide you with valuable insights and a sophisticated outlook on the current market.
Decoding the WTI Crude Oil Market
M ACD Indicator Insights: The WTI Crude Oil market has witnessed a bearish trend since September 28, 2023, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) at the bottom of the chart. While MACD continues to display bearish signals, it's vital to remember that this is a lagging indicator, reflecting historical trends. As sophisticated investors, we must recognize that historical behavior does not guarantee future outcomes. The world and its dynamics are in a constant state of flux, with each trading day being a unique entity shaped by ever-evolving global events.
D eep Neural Analytics Perspective: Here's where our analysis takes an intriguing turn. Deep Neural Analytics suggests the possibility of WTI Crude Oil being oversold. Historically, when MACD levels have reached this point, a bullish pull-up often follows. However, it's important to approach this insight cautiously. Global news and unforeseen developments can significantly impact oil markets. While historic trends provide valuable guidance, they are not absolute predictors of future behavior.
T he Support Zone: According to volume metrics, the current support zone (indicated by the upper blue rectangle) ranging from $77 to $84 also serves as a demand zone. If market sentiment remains positive and bearish news doesn't disrupt the status quo, this zone could transition into a consolidation platform. A consolidation zone acts as a springboard for investors to accumulate positions and potentially drive the price to the next resistance zone, which might fall within the range of $94 to $100 (as depicted by the purple rectangle).
A lternative Scenarios: If buyers fail to sustain the current support zone, or if external factors challenge investor sentiment, the next potential demand zone lies between $63.5 and $71 (as illustrated by the bottom blue rectangle). Should this scenario unfold, it would necessitate a reassessment to determine its suitability for a possible reversal. Theoretically, if oil doesn't reverse from the current demand zone, it could find its turning point in the alternate demand zone. These scenarios, however, are long-term considerations, while the current situation sees oil consistently falling below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) like EMA 20/50/100/200.
U nderstanding Sustainability: Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicators play a pivotal role in comprehending the sustainability of trends. Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) applied to EMAs and oil prices suggest that the bearish trend may persist until February 2024 or potentially longer. Despite MACD indicating that oil is oversold, GBMs on EMAs advise against forecasting an immediate bullish trend. This underscores the importance of not relying solely on one indicator.
The Road Ahead
I n the realm of WTI Crude Oil trading, informed decision-making is key. The markets are driven by a complex interplay of variables, making the role of a sophisticated investor all the more crucial. Without bullish news and indicators, WTI Crude Oil continues to display bearish tendencies and may maintain this trajectory for the foreseeable future.
Remember, this analysis serves as a guide, not an investment recommendation. Conduct thorough research, safeguard your funds, and take full responsibility for your investment choices. The dynamic nature of financial markets requires vigilance, and with the right insights, you can navigate the WTI Crude Oil landscape with confidence and wisdom.
Kind regards,
Ely
WTI CRUDE OIL High probability buy above the MA50 (4h).WTI Oil is trading inside a Channel Down since the September 27th High.
The price is now forming the Right Shoulder of a minor Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that bottomed on the Lower Lows trend line of the Channel Down.
This is formation technically aims at pricing the new Lower High at the top of the Channel Down.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy the moment a (4h) candle gets closed over the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 80.50 (which is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, as the previous Lower High was priced. Also it's the MA200 4h and top of the Channel Down).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is forming the exact same pattern as the previous bottom from October 6th to 12th. Once it re-crossed over its MA line, the spike that priced the top started.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
WTI Crude oil front expiration - last updateOverview:
EIA data and OPEC+ meeting postponed,
make tumble the market.
My dear volatility!!!
Strategy:
Neutral. Follow the market.
Our current position's Delta @$76.39: 0.03
This are all the corrections we made today
5)rebalance: @$76.39 (from 0.23 to 0.03)
4)rebalance: @$75.70 (from 0.62 to 0.03)
3)rebalance: @$73.90 (from -21 to 0.30)
2)rebalance: @$74.50 (from -0.30 to 0.05)
1)rebalance: @$76.10 (from +0.28 to +0.03)
rebalance: @$75.45 (from -0.58 to +0.06)
Technical signals:
RSI positive signal just if cross
in positive area
Stochastic still in negative area.
Trends analysis:
primary(purple): corrective structure wave A
intermediate(green): corrective structure wave B
minor(yellow): corrective structure wave C close
Bullish targets:
first@ $77.00
second@ $78.70
Mandatory rebalance level
/Stop loss: not set
Bearish targets:
first@ $75.00
second@ $73.90
WTI CRUDE OIL Buy signal under the 4hour MA50WTI Crude Oil / USOIL is trading inside a Channel Down for almost 2 months.
The recent Lower Low on its bottom is so far replicating the previous one on October 6th.
Today's sudden decline made a symmetric pull-back as on October 12th.
This is the final short term buy opportunity before the price approaches the top of the Channel and the 4hour MA200.
A crossing over the 4hour MA50 will confirm the buy.
Target 79.50, which is under Resistance A, like the Lower High of October 20th.
Previous chart:
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