WTI OIL is a strong long-term buy opportunity.WTI Oil (USOIL) has hit today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since October 24 2023. Today's analysis is on the 1W time-frame but we have explained the reasoning behind a long-term buy once the 1D MA50 would break, a month ago (December 19, see idea below):
That Buy Zone offers a low risk action ground for longs and as you can see on today's chart, it is also supported by the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which hasn't allowed a 1W candle to close below it for almost 3 years (since January 25 2021). At the same time the 3-year Support Zone has had 7 times that was hit and held, with the most recent being on December 11 2023.
As a result, if Oil closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, there are high chances of a strong medium-term rally on the 1W scale. So far the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is the Resistance. All 3-year Support Zone rallies rose very aggressively and the two most recent hit at least the 82.50 level, which will be our Target.
This is just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, a line that has been approached 4 times already since November 28 2022. Practically the market has been ranging within a 16-month Rectangle after the 2022 High.
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Wtioil
USOIL is gettick stuck between $68 and $75Geopolitics in the Red Sea
Tensions in the Red Sea continue to rise, with Iran issuing yet another warning to the U.S. and its allies before expanding the war in the rich-oil-producing region. The warning follows the deployment of an Iranian warship in the Red Sea after the withdrawal of the USS Gerald R. Ford supercarrier from the waters earlier this month. In addition to that, it follows an increasing number of attacks from Houthi rebels on commercial and military ships sailing through this popular trade route, which caused major shipping companies to reroute their ships around the Cape of Good Hope, adding additional cost and time to the shipping. To make things worse, in the past few days, there were multiple reports of attacks from Somalian vessels on commercial ships in other parts of the Middle East. Furthermore, there were reports of over 100 attacks on the U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq since mid-October 2023. To sum up these developments, the situation in the region is deteriorating at a fast pace, and the potential eruption of a broader conflict continues to pose a significant threat to falling oil prices.
Technical analysis
Since the start of the year, the USOIL has been mainly trending sideways. The loss of bearish momentum is reflected in a low value of ADX and flattening of RSI, Stochastic, and MACD on the daily chart; the flattening can also be observed on the weekly chart. As a result, we expect the USOIL to keep oscillating between $68 and $75 in the very short term. However, our price target of $65 per barrel stays unchanged.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Bearish (turning neutral)
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOIL reacting only slightly to the tensions in the Red SeaIn mid-December 2023, we witnessed major shipping companies announce a halt to transit through the Red Sea. Then, with the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian, we saw the same companies start reversing their decisions, only to again pause shipping quickly after the resumption (thanks to more attacks from Houthi rebels targeting Maersk ships). As such, the past three weeks in the oil market were marked by turmoil, affecting about 8.2 million barrels per day in transport through the region (and an estimated 12% of the world’s trade). With these tensions increasing, USOIL is reacting positively, and we acknowledge that USOIL may continue to oscillate between $68 and $75 in the short term (before diving lower). However, our price target of $65 per barrel stays in place.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Bearish (turning neutral)
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US OIL : Will the continuation of the war increase the price of Dear friends and colleagues, we are at your service with the world oil chart in the 4-hour time frame. As you can see, oil started to grow after a heavy drop and after breaking its previous ceiling of $72, it was able to reach the resistance range of $76. The dollar reached and is currently traded below this range. Considering the scope of the Middle East war and the escalation of tensions, there is a possibility that oil will reach the range of $100 per barrel.
I would be happy if you share your thoughts with me under this post
Disruption to the oil supply chain averted (at least for now)Following the initiation of Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea, major shipping companies like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd began to reverse their recent decisions to halt transit through this waterway. That is positive news for the world as the region is estimated to account for about 12% of global trade, with 340 million metric tons of cargo and 8.2 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Nonetheless, as disruption to the oil supply chain seems to be averted, this news is likely less favorable for the oil price, which is currently trading near $75.50 per barrel. With that said, we have no reason to change our outlook for the next year, and our price target stays at $65 per barrel; however, in the short term, we acknowledge that USOIL may move higher (potentially somewhere in the range between $77 and $78) before reversing. We will update our thoughts with the emergence of new developments.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the upper bound of the downward-sloping channel, which is quite bullish (unless invalidated).
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Bearish (turning neutral)
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI to find buyers at market?WTICOUSD - 24h expiry
Previous resistance level of 75.34 broken.
Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 73.51-77.10.
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited.
The medium term bias remains bullish.
We look to Buy at 75.00 (stop at 74.20)
Our profit targets will be 77.00 and 77.40
Resistance: 76.14 / 77.10 / 77.75
Support: 74.95 / 73.51 / 72.41
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
WTI H4 / A KEY LEVEL FOR OIL 🛢📊Hello Traders!
This is my perspective on WTI H4. OIL is currently at a key level, and I'm waiting for a confirmation. At the moment, OIL is in a bearish channel pattern and has now reached the resistance level. I anticipate a move until the OB from the price of 78.200. Additionally, there is a significant possibility of a strong bearish move down to the price of 65.000. If there is confirmation of a retracement from the resistance level, I will execute a short trade.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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WTI OIL: 1d Death Cross calls for selling but MA50 has to hold.WTI will complete a Death Cross pattern on the 1d time frame. This will be its second since September 02 2022.
That pattern initiated a strong decline which was a bearish leg inside a Channel Down pattern.
Oil is again trading inside a Channel Down since Sep 28 2023 and the Death Cross can be the sell call for the final leg to the 63.70 Support.
We expect at least 65.00 but the 1d MA50 has to hold. On a different occassion, i.e. a candle closing over the 1d MA50, look for a buy to the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 84.50. That will be almost a +25% rise, which we've seen 4 times since the last 1d Death Cross.
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WTI OIL Still in the long-term Buy Zone.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit our 73.50 short-term Target that we called on December 07 (see chart below) but remains within the 2 -month Channel Down:
On the wider 1D time-frame, we can clearly see that the price is still inside the 9-month Buy Zone. The tendency is that when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks after dipping within the zone, the price approaches the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
The 1D RSI is on a Triple Bottom, i.e. confirmed Low and buy opportunity while the 1D MACD is on a Double Bullish Cross. As a result, we are waiting either for another pull-back to 68.00 - 69.00 or the 1D MA50 to break (and close a 1D candle above) and target 82.50 for the medium-term.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Buy and target the 1day MA50.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL is inside a Channel Down but the bearish strength is fading as a Falling Support has been formed while the 1day RSI Double Bottomed.
At the same time the 1day MACD is about to form the 2nd Bullish Cross in less than a month.
The very same (Channel Down) pattern was trading back in June - August 2022, with the same bullish divergence and MACD Bullish Cross.
The price bottomed on that Cross and rebounded to test the 1day MA50.
Buy and target again the 1day MA50 with an early target estimate being 77.00.
Previous chart:
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A rebound in USOIL might not be done yetLast week, West Texas Intermediate crude oil reached our price target of $70 and slid as low as $68.83 per barrel. After this route, USOIL has slightly rebounded and currently trades near the $71.50 price tag. In the very short term, we acknowledge a potential for the price to continue higher. Indeed, this would be consistent with a natural occurrence of the price retracing toward its moving average, particularly the 20-day SMA. Yet, if the price breaks above this level and starts to consolidate there for a certain period, it might foreshadow even higher price tags; we will reassess our view if we get there. Beyond this short-term speculation about the prospects of further rise in USOIL, we stay bearish. Accordingly, our price target of $65 per barrel for the next year remains valid.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the daily chart of CL1!. Red arrows highlight the decreasing price accompanied by falling volume (suggesting the selling pressure might be decreasing as well).
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily graph of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from particular troughs.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOIL nears $70 per barrel The price of USOIL is edging toward $70 per barrel, which is our price target for 2024. However, it is becoming increasingly possible that we will see this price taken out even by the end of the current year. With that said, we want to raise another price target for the next year, valued at $65 per barrel.
Illustration 1.01
The monthly graph above shows the U.S. crude oil production. From the start of 2023 until September 2023, U.S. crude oil production rose by more than 770,000 barrels per day, which amounts to about 6.2% (since last year’s highs, the production is up more than 13.5%).
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 depicts the monthly chart of the U.S. total rig count. Interestingly, since September 2023, the total rig count stopped declining.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI OIL Channel Down bottom buy signalWTI Oil (USOIL) eventually hit our 71.00 target we set last week (see chart below) upon the dotted Channel Up break-out:
The price is now attempting a rebound following the breach of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is a typical procedure throughout 2023 and delivers a strong rebound. However, we we will our perspective short-term until the Channel Down breaks, and will only target 73.50, which is where we expect contact to be made with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). We reserve a spot for an additional buy at 67.00 (June 28 Low), in case the price makes one last pull-back to price a Lower Low on the Channel Down.
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USOIL is heading Lower and lower (~67$)Hello Traders
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing.
Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
WTI Crude Oil Trading: An In-Depth Analysis of a Bearish TrendDear Esteemed TradingView Members,
I n the ever-evolving world of finance and trading, staying ahead of the curve is essential for success. If you're part of the exclusive audience of elite business professionals and investors, you understand the importance of precise market analysis and informed decision-making. In this article, we delve into the intricacies of WTI Crude Oil trading to provide you with valuable insights and a sophisticated outlook on the current market.
Decoding the WTI Crude Oil Market
M ACD Indicator Insights: The WTI Crude Oil market has witnessed a bearish trend since September 28, 2023, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) at the bottom of the chart. While MACD continues to display bearish signals, it's vital to remember that this is a lagging indicator, reflecting historical trends. As sophisticated investors, we must recognize that historical behavior does not guarantee future outcomes. The world and its dynamics are in a constant state of flux, with each trading day being a unique entity shaped by ever-evolving global events.
D eep Neural Analytics Perspective: Here's where our analysis takes an intriguing turn. Deep Neural Analytics suggests the possibility of WTI Crude Oil being oversold. Historically, when MACD levels have reached this point, a bullish pull-up often follows. However, it's important to approach this insight cautiously. Global news and unforeseen developments can significantly impact oil markets. While historic trends provide valuable guidance, they are not absolute predictors of future behavior.
T he Support Zone: According to volume metrics, the current support zone (indicated by the upper blue rectangle) ranging from $77 to $84 also serves as a demand zone. If market sentiment remains positive and bearish news doesn't disrupt the status quo, this zone could transition into a consolidation platform. A consolidation zone acts as a springboard for investors to accumulate positions and potentially drive the price to the next resistance zone, which might fall within the range of $94 to $100 (as depicted by the purple rectangle).
A lternative Scenarios: If buyers fail to sustain the current support zone, or if external factors challenge investor sentiment, the next potential demand zone lies between $63.5 and $71 (as illustrated by the bottom blue rectangle). Should this scenario unfold, it would necessitate a reassessment to determine its suitability for a possible reversal. Theoretically, if oil doesn't reverse from the current demand zone, it could find its turning point in the alternate demand zone. These scenarios, however, are long-term considerations, while the current situation sees oil consistently falling below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) like EMA 20/50/100/200.
U nderstanding Sustainability: Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicators play a pivotal role in comprehending the sustainability of trends. Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) applied to EMAs and oil prices suggest that the bearish trend may persist until February 2024 or potentially longer. Despite MACD indicating that oil is oversold, GBMs on EMAs advise against forecasting an immediate bullish trend. This underscores the importance of not relying solely on one indicator.
The Road Ahead
I n the realm of WTI Crude Oil trading, informed decision-making is key. The markets are driven by a complex interplay of variables, making the role of a sophisticated investor all the more crucial. Without bullish news and indicators, WTI Crude Oil continues to display bearish tendencies and may maintain this trajectory for the foreseeable future.
Remember, this analysis serves as a guide, not an investment recommendation. Conduct thorough research, safeguard your funds, and take full responsibility for your investment choices. The dynamic nature of financial markets requires vigilance, and with the right insights, you can navigate the WTI Crude Oil landscape with confidence and wisdom.
Kind regards,
Ely
WTI CRUDE OIL High probability buy above the MA50 (4h).WTI Oil is trading inside a Channel Down since the September 27th High.
The price is now forming the Right Shoulder of a minor Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that bottomed on the Lower Lows trend line of the Channel Down.
This is formation technically aims at pricing the new Lower High at the top of the Channel Down.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy the moment a (4h) candle gets closed over the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 80.50 (which is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, as the previous Lower High was priced. Also it's the MA200 4h and top of the Channel Down).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is forming the exact same pattern as the previous bottom from October 6th to 12th. Once it re-crossed over its MA line, the spike that priced the top started.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
WTI Crude oil front expiration - last updateOverview:
EIA data and OPEC+ meeting postponed,
make tumble the market.
My dear volatility!!!
Strategy:
Neutral. Follow the market.
Our current position's Delta @$76.39: 0.03
This are all the corrections we made today
5)rebalance: @$76.39 (from 0.23 to 0.03)
4)rebalance: @$75.70 (from 0.62 to 0.03)
3)rebalance: @$73.90 (from -21 to 0.30)
2)rebalance: @$74.50 (from -0.30 to 0.05)
1)rebalance: @$76.10 (from +0.28 to +0.03)
rebalance: @$75.45 (from -0.58 to +0.06)
Technical signals:
RSI positive signal just if cross
in positive area
Stochastic still in negative area.
Trends analysis:
primary(purple): corrective structure wave A
intermediate(green): corrective structure wave B
minor(yellow): corrective structure wave C close
Bullish targets:
first@ $77.00
second@ $78.70
Mandatory rebalance level
/Stop loss: not set
Bearish targets:
first@ $75.00
second@ $73.90
WTI CRUDE OIL Buy signal under the 4hour MA50WTI Crude Oil / USOIL is trading inside a Channel Down for almost 2 months.
The recent Lower Low on its bottom is so far replicating the previous one on October 6th.
Today's sudden decline made a symmetric pull-back as on October 12th.
This is the final short term buy opportunity before the price approaches the top of the Channel and the 4hour MA200.
A crossing over the 4hour MA50 will confirm the buy.
Target 79.50, which is under Resistance A, like the Lower High of October 20th.
Previous chart:
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Oil continues to slide within the channelThe price of WTI crude oil continues to rise ahead of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday, during which cartel members will discuss policy regarding production. The group will likely decide to lower the output in response to more than a 20% decline in the oil price since September 2023 highs (now, closer to an 18% decline). While a drop in supply is normally bullish for oil, it is important to note that some of it will get offset by the United States trying to ramp up its domestic production. Furthermore, the prices are already rising in anticipation of the cartel’s decision. Nonetheless, our outlook stays unchanged, with a price target of $70 per barrel for 2024.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI bears eye a move down to $80Last week's swing trade to $90 worked out well, yet momentum ha since shifted lower.
I noted in the recent COT report that managed funds and large speculators have been trimming long exposure in recent weeks, and that managed funds increased short exposure last week despite the slew of negative headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict. This also coincided with the two small bullish weekly candles, which appeared to be corrective on the weekly chart - and therfore suggests lower prices.
A lower high has formed below $90 and momentum turned lower. As support has been found around the Jan/April highs, we suspect a bounce is due. And this could allow bears to fade into favourable prices below $87 - $87.50 on the assumption a breakdown is pending ahead of its move to $80.
Should this be part of a larger decline, note that $75 and $70 are near the 100% and 138.2% Fibonacci projection levels on the daily chart.
WTI OIL Short-term rebound expected.Last month's Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern (see chart below) hit both of our Targets (79.00 and 75.00) and transitioned into a Channel Down:
The price almost hit the pattern's bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) and after a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection, the 4H RSI formed the same Higher Lows trend-line as it did on October 12.
We are expecting this to be the start of the Lower High leg towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). This is expected to be within the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and a +10.25% range. Target 82.50.
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WTI Crude oil - front expirationTechnical Analysis:
Support level $75 looks like resisting. After the forecasted rebound, seems the market stay cautious with a triangle formation on hourly time frame.
Scenarios:
1. Scenario 1 - Positive continuation till the first target (ABC intraday structure).
Strategy for Scenario 1:
- On consolidation above $77 set the position's Delta to positive, following your investment criteria.
- First target: $78.50
- Strategy on reaching target 1: Set the position's Delta to zero
- Second target: $79.50
- Strategy on reaching target 2: Set the position's Delta to zero
2. Scenario 2 - Negative Acceleration. If the price breaks down below today's low of $76.50, we could see a further decline to around $75 from where restart a rebound. Only a breakdown of 74.91 would indicate a negative acceleration in price.
Strategy for Scenario 2:
- Set the position's Delta to negative, following your investment criteria.
- First target: $75
- Strategy on reaching target 1: Set the position's Delta to zero
- Second target: $72.50
- Strategy on reaching target 2: Set the position's Delta to zero
Summary:
The technical analysis suggests a potential short term technical rebound. We consider a positive rebound strategy if the price hold level $75 and till $79.5/$80 area, where we will consider close wave 4. On the close of wave 4 or a price drops below $74.91 we will consider a short strategy.
Make sure to follow your investment and adjust your position's Delta accordingly to manage your risk.
Investment criteria we highly recommend:
CONSERVATIVE strategy: max position's Delta value (+/-) 0.20
MODERATE strategy: max position's Delta value (+/-) 0.30
AGGRESSIVE strategy: max position's Delta value (+/-) 0.40
Please note that investing in derivatives involves hight risks. We strongly advise against invest in future or options naked (not hedged), and to carefully follow your investment strategy criteria and risk management.
Delta Zero
Technical Analysis team
WTI OIL Hit both bearish targets. Time to buy again?WTI Oil (USOIL) hit both our 79.00 and 75.00 targets on the H&S sell call we made (see chart below) on October 30:
The trend on the 1D time-frame evolved into a Channel Down that broke below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but hit on Wednesday it's bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) and is so far holding. As the 1D RSI touched the 30.00 oversold barrier, we have a strong buy signal emerging as every time in the last 2 years the 1D RSI got oversold, Oil always rebounded to reach the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at least.
The 1D MA50 has been the Resistance since October 24 and as Support 1 (73.85) is very close, we turn bullish again after a long time to target the top of the Channel Down at 82.00.
Notice that this correction got closer to the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) which is the ultimate long-term Support and the one that held on 5 different times from mid March to June (closed all 1W candles above it and eventually led to September's High).
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