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Wtishort

OIL SHORT: Commercial hedging at multi-year highsCommercial hedging short interest is at multi-year highs - back to where it was in summer 2014 when oil topped at around $100. Hedgers are locking in current prices as they believe they are extremely attractive in the medium term. Speculative positions are also at multi-year highs - making oil prices prone to a downside squeeze. WTI may have set in a near-term top and, although we could see $60 tested in the next few months, oil will continue to be pressured to the downside. A stronger dollar, questions about OPEC compliance and weak global growth are all fundamental forces which support this view.
FX:USOILShort
by Exercise-Discipline
Last wave before low tide - Oil's 2016 highs are behind us.Been a while since updating, all looks good on Sine timeline.... Still on track for low on/about Jan20th. Purple is the wave short pattern. SineTC says price will be at significant low, and below the wave starting point at end of Timecycle. Depending on wave duration, most price drops are over 20% from staring point. The cycles are not the Red/Green visible sine wave, the Cycle is the timeline difference between the apex of the two waves. Each wave is at different frequency. Thus you have waves at different length, from a few days to few months. Direction of wave (up/down) has no barring on this study. The wave is used as a timeline, and the offset is the length of cycle. I expect we will run up (20th) Monday morning US on opening.. I expect this run will hold below 53.25 on the 1hr, but regardless of price I plan to short as soon as I have confirmation Monday afternoon or Tuesday AM. For now our target is 40 by Jan 20th. We are currently short oil. See linked for more info. Trade safe.. make money!
TVC:USOILShort
by BigEz
9
BCOUSD @ 60 min. Chart @ suggests price pressure until 48 USDThe big picture is still looking pretty bullish Based on daily charts , an outbreak above 54 is only a question of time - this month or even january`17 ... But the short term makes me afraid last 24 hours and even suggests me price pressure even unbtil 48 USD ?! How ever the short-tmer chart is pretty bearish even under 52.500 BCOUSD Why ??? Let me shortly excplain ... the daily sma broked even around by 52.500 the weekly sma broked even around by 52.500 the monthly is more or less even around by 48.000 Take care & analyzed it again - it`s always your decission ... (for a bigger picture zoom the chart) Best regards Aaron
OANDA:BCOUSD
by Devise2Day
LONG TERM OIL SHORT & USDCAD LONG: Dollar StrengthDollar strength is here to stay. Fiscal stimulus, rate hikes, $10 trillion off-shore dollar debt, rising US yields, DXY breaking out of a multi-year consolidation zone. The attached chart shows a strong INVERSE correlation between DXY and oil. As the dollar strengthens, the oil price soon follows. At present, there is a MASSIVE divergence between the oil price and the dollar index. This needs to be corrected. Either the dollar will weaken, or the oil price will fall. I mentioned before that dollar strength is here to stay. Therefore, the oil price should dramatically fall. It is temporarily propped up on the recent OPEC production cut, but should soon correct since the effect of a strong dollar will soon be felt. Oil is correlated with CAD. Furthermore, the Canadian economy is weak. After the election of Trump, BoC should cut rates. Combining all of this - dollar strength, oil mispricing and CAD weakness gives us an excellent trade: long USDCAD.
FX:USOILShort
by Exercise-Discipline
Top of the WaveWell it is finally here.. We have reached the date of the above green time cycle. This cycle marks the date of significant highs, normanly followed by a sharp break down. This cycle has remained acurate for last 3 years (we are entering 4 year) and it remain spot on. The Green time cycle shows the dates when oil stops a bull run. Even in a bear market, there will be bull run leading into this date... On this date we see the high. Even thought I only use this to predict the Week of the event (break to bearish).. It has been acurate to the DAY the last three years. As it predicted the break happened on Friday. October 7th. That is six complete cycles going back over three years. Simply put, we have reached the top of the wave until Apex of Red cycle, Jan 20, 2017. Oil is going down. The Red sine wave shows at what point in the cycle oil will be at its low. Think of it as the inverse of the Green time cycle with a different wave timing. The low for oil will be on the Apex date of the Red sine wave. The last apex occurred (and was predicted) on Aug 4. This wave timing longer than the Green time cycle, so you can see it's apex can occur from days to months after the High of the Green time cycle. The difference in time between the two dictates the speed of the fall. This pattern is consistent. Sure... I only make a handful of trades a year, and i normally swing them for about 3months, so why is this important to short term traders.. Because if you know the direction for the next few weeks or months, and you know any spike up before the Red sine wave date will be reversed to at least the prior low since the Green time cycle date. All of last years gains where based on these trades.. I will be updating our other published ideas to consolidate them here. All are subsets of this cycle chart. If you have been following you know we are on a longterm big short from 47.10 You also know we made the trip from 40'ish to above 47 twice and our longterm shorts are still underwater. You also know that we also swung short-term shorts for +21% profits with a 1week trade. Neither of these cycles predict price, just course and direction. Our target remains 38 WTI by Jan. 20, 2017. No do overs, not yea buts.. We feel oil will bottom on this day for cycle, and although it will take a few days to confirm a top, and could test 50 this week, we feel this marks the end of this last bull run of the year.
TVC:USOILEducation
by BigEz
24
Summer is over.. But the gas tank is still full. This trade Idea is a transfer of our open short from prior published idea. Summer is over so it's time to track our action on our daily chart. The old charts remain available but get too busy with notes. Our transferred short was entered over the last two months at an average of $47.10. Its clear that this summers consumption has done little to reduce available oil. The US is importing oil at record amounts... Not to use, but to store. Storage and pipeline services are booming. There are massive physical hedges going on oil, this requires longterm capital. Not something to store oil in just out behind the barn. This storage needs utilization for years... Not just a few quarters. Our target still remains WTI @ 38 by the end of the year. We have now seen oil leave the only active up channel.. I had not expected it to drop outside of the latest micro channel (after drop to 45.5). I do not anticipate a newer, steeper micro channel to form... but will watch for it. More likely it will increase in volatility until the (no change) opec meeting is over on 27th. Until then lots of opportunities for day traders as long as they go with Trend & Fundamentals. Out swing-trade timeline lets us go outside .. But we will add to our shorts on spikes when they warrant. For now we are holding short.
FX:USOILShort
by BigEz